Last week: 9-1 Season: 104-35
Outside of Charlottesville, there are other big games happening this holiday weekend. Here are my picks for some of these significant contests and renewed rivalries, along with the usual slate of ACC games. Look for my Tech-UVa preview to come in a separate post.
Friday's games
No. 19 Cincinnati (10-1) at No. 18 Memphis (10-1), 3:30 p.m. ABC
The Bearcats have secured the American Athletic Conference East Division title. The Tigers can lock down the West crown with a win vs. Cincy. The Tigers and Bearcats would then meet again in the AAC championship, and I believe the game would be at Memphis. The title game is at the field of the school with the better conference record. Both would be 7-1, but Memphis would own the head-to-head tiebreaker, which I imagine would mean it would get home field. But if Cincinnati wins this first meeting, that opens up the chance for Navy to win the East if it can top Houston. That version of the AAC championship would be at Cincinnati. The bigger accomplishment at stake in all of this is a berth in the Cotton Bowl. One spot in that famed postseason game goes to the highest Group of Five champion this season. Memphis and Cincinnati look like the representative if either win out. If something weird happens, though, Boise State lurks at No. 20 and could take that spot. If something REALLY weird happens with all three teams, Appalachian State is No. 25 right now. Anyway, all of that is still in the future. For this matchup, Memphis is a big 11-point favorite. The Tigers have been more dominant all season. I'll take Memphis to hold serve at home, setting up the AAC championship rematch on the same field.
Memphis 37, Cincinnati 27
Apple Cup
Washington State (6-5) at Washington (6-5), 4 p.m. Fox
If Virginia doesn't end up in the Orange Bowl, a popular bowl trip that has been popping up for the Cavaliers in projections is the Sun Bowl in El Paso vs. a Pac-12 team, with the Cougars or Huskies as possible opponents. This week, at least one ESPN prognosticator has Virginia playing WSU in the Sun Bowl. Both of these teams have disappointed this season, with WSU coach Mike Leach publicly degrading his team in a hilarious way only he can. U-Dub coach Chris Petersen is having his worst season in Seattle since 2015. The Huskies have won the past six Apple Cups -- all by double digits, including in 2018 when WSU was No. 8 -- and have been a bit more consistent this year, with their best win coming over USC, while the Cougars only boast wins over losing teams and an FCS squad. With the game in Seattle, I'll take Washington.
Washington 33, Washington State 26
Saturday's games
The Game
No. 1 Ohio State (11-0) at No. 13 Michigan (9-2), Noon, Fox
The Wolverines have had a really good season after a slow start. But this is the one game Jim Harbaugh has been unable to win. Michigan has only won one game in the series since 2003, and that came in 2012. The Buckeyes are on a different level than everyone else right now, except maybe LSU
and Clemson. OSU was challenged a bit last week at Penn State in winning 28-17, but mainly only because of its own mistakes. It has won every game by double digits this season. The implications of this game are clear, with OSU No. 1 in the playoff rankings. Win or lose, though, the Buckeyes are playing in the Big Ten championship against Minnesota or Wisconsin. The Wolverines have won their past four games by an average of 41.5-11.3, but I like the Buckeyes to prevail.
Ohio State 34, Michigan 24
Wake Forest (8-3) at Syracuse (4-7), 12:30 p.m. ACC Network Extra
Wake Forest 38, Syracuse 31
Iron Bowl
No. 5 Alabama (10-1) at No. 15 Auburn (8-3), 3:30 p.m. CBS
Always one of the most highly anticipated games of the season, this edition posts a strong Crimson Tide offense and a tough Tigers defense, but Alabama's 'D' is no slouch, of course. But Tide QB Tua Tagovailoa is out, so it'll be Mac Jones trying to defeat the bitter rival. Alabama must win to stay in the conversation for the College Football Playoff, and many analysts think it needs to blow out Auburn and impress the committee since it won't get a chance to beat another highly ranked team in the SEC championship. The Tide have won four of the past five meetings, but Auburn, then ranked No. 6, upset No. 1 Alabama, 26-14, the last time they met in Auburn in 2017. What happens this time? I think the Crimson Tide's offense will do enough to win, and the Tigers won't quite be able to score enough against the Tide.
Alabama 26, Auburn 20
Paul Bunyan's Axe
No. 12 Wisconsin (9-2) at No. 8 Minnesota (10-1), 3:30 p.m. ABC
The prize for the winner of this game? Battle Ohio State in the Big Ten championship, and Wisconsin has already done that. So who really wants to win the Big Ten West? The Badgers' other loss is to Illinois. The Gophers tripped up two weeks ago at Iowa. Wisconsin had won every game in this series since 2003 until last year, when P.J. Fleck's team stunned Wisconsin in Madison, 37-15. I like the Gophers to get this done at home, "earning" a chance to knock off the Buckeyes.
Minnesota 23, Wisconsin 20
Boston College (5-6) at Pittsburgh (7-4), 3:30 p.m. ACC Network
I'm calling for an upset in this one. The Panthers are out of the running for the Coastal Division, so they won't be playing for much. The Eagles are at least playing to become bowl eligible, and they have a weird tradition of winning seven games, either via the regular season only or six regular-season wins plus a bowl victory (five of coach Steve Addazio's six seasons). Pitt hasn't really dominated anyone this season but was just dominated itself at Virginia Tech. Boston College hasn't done anything special, and is coming off a blowout loss at Notre Dame, but I just think the Eagles will rebound and play more energetic in what could be a messy, cold, and rainy game at Heinz Field.
Boston College 24, Pittsburgh 23
Miami (6-5) at Duke (4-7), 3:30 p.m. ESPN2
The Hurricanes embarrassed themselves last week by losing to FIU, 30-24. I saw a stat that said Miami is the only team in the last 40 years to lose three times in the same season as a 14-point favorite (FIU, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech). The Blue Devils have absolutely tanked in the second half of the season but did show signs of life last week in losing to Wake Forest, 39-27. This one feels pretty unpredictable, but I'll go with the 'Canes.
Miami 31, Duke 24
North Carolina (5-6) at N.C. State (4-7), 7 p.m. ACC Network
The Tar Heels need to win this rivalry game to become bowl eligible, and I think they'll do it against a Wolfpack team that has been struggling mightily for weeks, losing their past five games. This series' matchups have been close lately, though, and this particular year, UNC is of course playing almost exclusively in tight games, so I'll expect the same to happen.
North Carolina 30, N.C. State 23
Sunshine Showdown
Florida State (6-5) at No. 11 Florida (9-2), 7:30 p.m. SEC Network
Kudos to the Seminoles for getting bowl eligible after being .500 or worse for most of the season. Interim coach Odell Haggins may have an outside shot at becoming the program's next actual head coach. An upset win in Gainesville would surely boost his case, but I don't see that happening. The Gators' only losses are to LSU and Georgia, which are a combined 21-1. Florida has nearly stumbled a couple of times season but most recently crushed Vanderbilt (56-0) and Missouri (23-6), the latter of which is similar in record to FSU at 5-6. Last year in Tallahassee, Florida won this meeting, 41-14. If I'm FSU, I'm hoping to keep it closer than that and am happy if I do.
Florida 35, Florida State 17
Bedlam
No. 7 Oklahoma (10-1) at No. 21 Oklahoma State (8-3), 8 p.m. Fox
This series always seems to be one of the most hotly contested in college football despite the Sooners holding an overall 88-18-7 advantage. Oklahoma has won seven of the past nine, but look at some of these scores: 47-41 (OU), 51-48 (OU), 33-24 (OU), 38-35 (OSU), 62-52 (OU), 48-47 (OU). Oklahoma needs to win to stay alive in the CFP hunt, but there are some troubling trends. The Sooners have won their past three games over TCU, Baylor, and Iowa State by a combined eight points, and needed that huge comeback at Baylor to do it, and last week's win over TCU ended with a controversial call. Oklahoma State beat Kansas State, the only team Oklahoma lost to, and in general, the Cowboys are no slouch. Even though their wins have been rare in this series, the games are often still close. This one just gives me the upset feeling. I'll take OSU.
Oklahoma State 41, Oklahoma 38
Outside of Charlottesville, there are other big games happening this holiday weekend. Here are my picks for some of these significant contests and renewed rivalries, along with the usual slate of ACC games. Look for my Tech-UVa preview to come in a separate post.
Friday's games
No. 19 Cincinnati (10-1) at No. 18 Memphis (10-1), 3:30 p.m. ABC
The Bearcats have secured the American Athletic Conference East Division title. The Tigers can lock down the West crown with a win vs. Cincy. The Tigers and Bearcats would then meet again in the AAC championship, and I believe the game would be at Memphis. The title game is at the field of the school with the better conference record. Both would be 7-1, but Memphis would own the head-to-head tiebreaker, which I imagine would mean it would get home field. But if Cincinnati wins this first meeting, that opens up the chance for Navy to win the East if it can top Houston. That version of the AAC championship would be at Cincinnati. The bigger accomplishment at stake in all of this is a berth in the Cotton Bowl. One spot in that famed postseason game goes to the highest Group of Five champion this season. Memphis and Cincinnati look like the representative if either win out. If something weird happens, though, Boise State lurks at No. 20 and could take that spot. If something REALLY weird happens with all three teams, Appalachian State is No. 25 right now. Anyway, all of that is still in the future. For this matchup, Memphis is a big 11-point favorite. The Tigers have been more dominant all season. I'll take Memphis to hold serve at home, setting up the AAC championship rematch on the same field.
Memphis 37, Cincinnati 27
Apple Cup
Washington State (6-5) at Washington (6-5), 4 p.m. Fox
If Virginia doesn't end up in the Orange Bowl, a popular bowl trip that has been popping up for the Cavaliers in projections is the Sun Bowl in El Paso vs. a Pac-12 team, with the Cougars or Huskies as possible opponents. This week, at least one ESPN prognosticator has Virginia playing WSU in the Sun Bowl. Both of these teams have disappointed this season, with WSU coach Mike Leach publicly degrading his team in a hilarious way only he can. U-Dub coach Chris Petersen is having his worst season in Seattle since 2015. The Huskies have won the past six Apple Cups -- all by double digits, including in 2018 when WSU was No. 8 -- and have been a bit more consistent this year, with their best win coming over USC, while the Cougars only boast wins over losing teams and an FCS squad. With the game in Seattle, I'll take Washington.
Washington 33, Washington State 26
Saturday's games
The Game
No. 1 Ohio State (11-0) at No. 13 Michigan (9-2), Noon, Fox
The Wolverines have had a really good season after a slow start. But this is the one game Jim Harbaugh has been unable to win. Michigan has only won one game in the series since 2003, and that came in 2012. The Buckeyes are on a different level than everyone else right now, except maybe LSU
Ohio State 34, Michigan 24
Wake Forest (8-3) at Syracuse (4-7), 12:30 p.m. ACC Network Extra
Wake Forest 38, Syracuse 31
Iron Bowl
No. 5 Alabama (10-1) at No. 15 Auburn (8-3), 3:30 p.m. CBS
Always one of the most highly anticipated games of the season, this edition posts a strong Crimson Tide offense and a tough Tigers defense, but Alabama's 'D' is no slouch, of course. But Tide QB Tua Tagovailoa is out, so it'll be Mac Jones trying to defeat the bitter rival. Alabama must win to stay in the conversation for the College Football Playoff, and many analysts think it needs to blow out Auburn and impress the committee since it won't get a chance to beat another highly ranked team in the SEC championship. The Tide have won four of the past five meetings, but Auburn, then ranked No. 6, upset No. 1 Alabama, 26-14, the last time they met in Auburn in 2017. What happens this time? I think the Crimson Tide's offense will do enough to win, and the Tigers won't quite be able to score enough against the Tide.
Alabama 26, Auburn 20
Paul Bunyan's Axe
No. 12 Wisconsin (9-2) at No. 8 Minnesota (10-1), 3:30 p.m. ABC
The prize for the winner of this game? Battle Ohio State in the Big Ten championship, and Wisconsin has already done that. So who really wants to win the Big Ten West? The Badgers' other loss is to Illinois. The Gophers tripped up two weeks ago at Iowa. Wisconsin had won every game in this series since 2003 until last year, when P.J. Fleck's team stunned Wisconsin in Madison, 37-15. I like the Gophers to get this done at home, "earning" a chance to knock off the Buckeyes.
Minnesota 23, Wisconsin 20
Boston College (5-6) at Pittsburgh (7-4), 3:30 p.m. ACC Network
I'm calling for an upset in this one. The Panthers are out of the running for the Coastal Division, so they won't be playing for much. The Eagles are at least playing to become bowl eligible, and they have a weird tradition of winning seven games, either via the regular season only or six regular-season wins plus a bowl victory (five of coach Steve Addazio's six seasons). Pitt hasn't really dominated anyone this season but was just dominated itself at Virginia Tech. Boston College hasn't done anything special, and is coming off a blowout loss at Notre Dame, but I just think the Eagles will rebound and play more energetic in what could be a messy, cold, and rainy game at Heinz Field.
Boston College 24, Pittsburgh 23
Miami (6-5) at Duke (4-7), 3:30 p.m. ESPN2
The Hurricanes embarrassed themselves last week by losing to FIU, 30-24. I saw a stat that said Miami is the only team in the last 40 years to lose three times in the same season as a 14-point favorite (FIU, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech). The Blue Devils have absolutely tanked in the second half of the season but did show signs of life last week in losing to Wake Forest, 39-27. This one feels pretty unpredictable, but I'll go with the 'Canes.
Miami 31, Duke 24
North Carolina (5-6) at N.C. State (4-7), 7 p.m. ACC Network
The Tar Heels need to win this rivalry game to become bowl eligible, and I think they'll do it against a Wolfpack team that has been struggling mightily for weeks, losing their past five games. This series' matchups have been close lately, though, and this particular year, UNC is of course playing almost exclusively in tight games, so I'll expect the same to happen.
North Carolina 30, N.C. State 23
Sunshine Showdown
Florida State (6-5) at No. 11 Florida (9-2), 7:30 p.m. SEC Network
Kudos to the Seminoles for getting bowl eligible after being .500 or worse for most of the season. Interim coach Odell Haggins may have an outside shot at becoming the program's next actual head coach. An upset win in Gainesville would surely boost his case, but I don't see that happening. The Gators' only losses are to LSU and Georgia, which are a combined 21-1. Florida has nearly stumbled a couple of times season but most recently crushed Vanderbilt (56-0) and Missouri (23-6), the latter of which is similar in record to FSU at 5-6. Last year in Tallahassee, Florida won this meeting, 41-14. If I'm FSU, I'm hoping to keep it closer than that and am happy if I do.
Florida 35, Florida State 17
Bedlam
No. 7 Oklahoma (10-1) at No. 21 Oklahoma State (8-3), 8 p.m. Fox
This series always seems to be one of the most hotly contested in college football despite the Sooners holding an overall 88-18-7 advantage. Oklahoma has won seven of the past nine, but look at some of these scores: 47-41 (OU), 51-48 (OU), 33-24 (OU), 38-35 (OSU), 62-52 (OU), 48-47 (OU). Oklahoma needs to win to stay alive in the CFP hunt, but there are some troubling trends. The Sooners have won their past three games over TCU, Baylor, and Iowa State by a combined eight points, and needed that huge comeback at Baylor to do it, and last week's win over TCU ended with a controversial call. Oklahoma State beat Kansas State, the only team Oklahoma lost to, and in general, the Cowboys are no slouch. Even though their wins have been rare in this series, the games are often still close. This one just gives me the upset feeling. I'll take OSU.
Oklahoma State 41, Oklahoma 38
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