Virginia at No. 9 Florida State, 7 p.m. ESPN2
After a tough outing at home against mediocre Syracuse, things get no easier for the Wahoos, who go on the road to top-10 Florida State tonight. Not only are the Seminoles playing very solidly this season, but they were also the last team to beat UVa during the 2018-19 season, handily, too, 69-59, in the ACC tournament semifinals. There's no such thing as a lack of confidence when it comes to FSU, which has often played Virginia tight even when Tony Bennett and the Cavaliers have been at the top of their game. In fact, the 'Noles have won three of the past five matchups, experiencing more success against Virginia than any ACC team not named Duke.
Here's more on this year's Seminoles:
Record: 14-2, 4-1 ACC
Coach: Leonard Hamilton, 18th year at FSU, 368-218; 32nd year overall, 568-428
Scorers in double figures: 6-foot-6 sophomore guard Devin Vassell (12.3), 6-4 senior guard Trent Forrest (12.2), 6-5 junior guard M.J. Walker (11.6)
Leading rebounders: (Rice transfer) 6-9 sophomore forward Malik Osborne (5.2) , Vassell (4.8), Forrest (3.9), 6-8 sophomore forward RaiQuan Gray (3.6)
Assist leaders: Forrest (3.9), Walker (1.6), Gray (1.6)
Notable: Five additional players average at least 6 points. Like usual, FSU is deep, with nine players averaging at least 10 minutes, and another averages 9.5 minutes. The Seminoles are always long, and
this version is no exception, with every player getting significant minutes standing at least 6-4. Vassell (1.6), Forrest (1.6), 6-6 sophomore guard Anthony Polite (1.3), and Gray all average better than one steal per game. Vassell (1.2) and 6-8 freshman forward Patrick Williams (1) block one shot per game.
Best win: At No. 7 Louisville, 78-65, on Jan. 4
Worst win: A couple stick out. The Seminoles beat Western Carolina just 79-74, but the Catamounts are 12-3. FSU also wasn't able to hammer South Florida, winning that matchup 66-60 after trailing by 10. The Bulls are just 8-9.
Other wins: Florida, Chattanooga, St. Francis (Pa.), Chicago State, Tennessee, Purdue, Clemson, North Florida, North Alabama, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest
Best loss: At Pittsburgh, 63-61, to open the season. The Panthers are 11-5 and 2-3 in the ACC.
Other loss: At Indiana, 80-64. The Hoosiers are 13-3.
Common opponents with UVa: Just Purdue. The Seminoles edged the Boilermakers, 63-60, in Tallahassee, and UVa was crushed by Purdue on the road, 69-40.
What Florida State does well: The Seminoles give up just 63.4 points per game (tied-60th). They also block 5.6 shots per game (tied-16th) and nab 9.5 steals per game (15th).
What Florida State doesn't do well: Deep shooting has been somewhat of a struggle. FSU is at 33.9 percent on 3-pointers (146th).
This is a rough matchup for the 'Hoos, who have lost two in a row for the first time since February 2017. FSU has been a good team for years and often is tough for UVa to handle. Hamilton is still searching for his first Final Four but has been to the Sweet 16 with FSU twice, including last season, and the Seminoles made the Elite Eight two years ago. The schools split the 2018-19 meetings, with the Cavaliers crushing the Seminoles in Charlottesville in a top-10 matchup not as close as the 65-52 final score before FSU got revenge in the ACC tourney.
Will the Seminoles use their length to try to harass the cold-shooting 'Hoos into another woeful night from beyond the arc, or will they sag off Virginia's shooters, bottle up the inside, and dare them to shoot from deep? Either way, UVa just needs to make a few shots to loosen things up and get more confident. All types of shots will open up if that happens. FSU has been a little weak against the 3, giving up a percentage of 32.6 (173rd).
Are there any other silver linings and signs of hope in this game? Well, FSU does tend to be sloppy, committing 13 turnovers per game, so UVa will have to take advantage of any easy chances it gets and convert them into points, especially given how much of an epic struggle making shots has been. The Seminoles also rank 181st in rebounding margin, so maybe the Cavaliers can get some extra opportunities that way. Finally, FSU doesn't move the ball that well and prefers isolation-type plays, so it generates only 13.4 assists per game (tied-168th) and an assist-turnover ratio of 1.03 (141st).
Despite these glimpses of optimism, I don't foresee a victory in Tallahassee. I just can't envision how the team will produce enough offense against a rangy team that is solid on defense. In 2013-14, a beaten and bruised Virginia team that had just gotten shellacked by Tennessee stunned FSU on the road, 62-50. That was the beginning of the Cavaliers' amazing run to the ACC regular-season and tournament titles that season. Maybe this can be the turnaround point again, but I'm not predicting that.
Gut feeling: Florida State wins by 5-10 points.
After a tough outing at home against mediocre Syracuse, things get no easier for the Wahoos, who go on the road to top-10 Florida State tonight. Not only are the Seminoles playing very solidly this season, but they were also the last team to beat UVa during the 2018-19 season, handily, too, 69-59, in the ACC tournament semifinals. There's no such thing as a lack of confidence when it comes to FSU, which has often played Virginia tight even when Tony Bennett and the Cavaliers have been at the top of their game. In fact, the 'Noles have won three of the past five matchups, experiencing more success against Virginia than any ACC team not named Duke.
Here's more on this year's Seminoles:
Record: 14-2, 4-1 ACC
Coach: Leonard Hamilton, 18th year at FSU, 368-218; 32nd year overall, 568-428
Scorers in double figures: 6-foot-6 sophomore guard Devin Vassell (12.3), 6-4 senior guard Trent Forrest (12.2), 6-5 junior guard M.J. Walker (11.6)
Leading rebounders: (Rice transfer) 6-9 sophomore forward Malik Osborne (5.2) , Vassell (4.8), Forrest (3.9), 6-8 sophomore forward RaiQuan Gray (3.6)
Assist leaders: Forrest (3.9), Walker (1.6), Gray (1.6)
Notable: Five additional players average at least 6 points. Like usual, FSU is deep, with nine players averaging at least 10 minutes, and another averages 9.5 minutes. The Seminoles are always long, and
Best win: At No. 7 Louisville, 78-65, on Jan. 4
Worst win: A couple stick out. The Seminoles beat Western Carolina just 79-74, but the Catamounts are 12-3. FSU also wasn't able to hammer South Florida, winning that matchup 66-60 after trailing by 10. The Bulls are just 8-9.
Other wins: Florida, Chattanooga, St. Francis (Pa.), Chicago State, Tennessee, Purdue, Clemson, North Florida, North Alabama, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest
Best loss: At Pittsburgh, 63-61, to open the season. The Panthers are 11-5 and 2-3 in the ACC.
Other loss: At Indiana, 80-64. The Hoosiers are 13-3.
Common opponents with UVa: Just Purdue. The Seminoles edged the Boilermakers, 63-60, in Tallahassee, and UVa was crushed by Purdue on the road, 69-40.
What Florida State does well: The Seminoles give up just 63.4 points per game (tied-60th). They also block 5.6 shots per game (tied-16th) and nab 9.5 steals per game (15th).
What Florida State doesn't do well: Deep shooting has been somewhat of a struggle. FSU is at 33.9 percent on 3-pointers (146th).
This is a rough matchup for the 'Hoos, who have lost two in a row for the first time since February 2017. FSU has been a good team for years and often is tough for UVa to handle. Hamilton is still searching for his first Final Four but has been to the Sweet 16 with FSU twice, including last season, and the Seminoles made the Elite Eight two years ago. The schools split the 2018-19 meetings, with the Cavaliers crushing the Seminoles in Charlottesville in a top-10 matchup not as close as the 65-52 final score before FSU got revenge in the ACC tourney.
Will the Seminoles use their length to try to harass the cold-shooting 'Hoos into another woeful night from beyond the arc, or will they sag off Virginia's shooters, bottle up the inside, and dare them to shoot from deep? Either way, UVa just needs to make a few shots to loosen things up and get more confident. All types of shots will open up if that happens. FSU has been a little weak against the 3, giving up a percentage of 32.6 (173rd).
Are there any other silver linings and signs of hope in this game? Well, FSU does tend to be sloppy, committing 13 turnovers per game, so UVa will have to take advantage of any easy chances it gets and convert them into points, especially given how much of an epic struggle making shots has been. The Seminoles also rank 181st in rebounding margin, so maybe the Cavaliers can get some extra opportunities that way. Finally, FSU doesn't move the ball that well and prefers isolation-type plays, so it generates only 13.4 assists per game (tied-168th) and an assist-turnover ratio of 1.03 (141st).
Despite these glimpses of optimism, I don't foresee a victory in Tallahassee. I just can't envision how the team will produce enough offense against a rangy team that is solid on defense. In 2013-14, a beaten and bruised Virginia team that had just gotten shellacked by Tennessee stunned FSU on the road, 62-50. That was the beginning of the Cavaliers' amazing run to the ACC regular-season and tournament titles that season. Maybe this can be the turnaround point again, but I'm not predicting that.
Gut feeling: Florida State wins by 5-10 points.
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