No. 5 Florida State at Virginia, 7 p.m. ESPN
The Cavaliers don't have any time to celebrate their overtime win over Wake Forest, with the top-five Seminoles coming to John Paul Jones Arena tonight. FSU has won 10 games in a row and sits at 17-2 overall and 7-1 in the ACC, tied for first in the loss column with Louisville.
One of those victories came Jan. 15 over Virginia, 54-50. It was another frustrating defeat for the Cavaliers because they could not hold on to a second-half lead of 47-44 with about three minutes left. This came after they rallied from a seven-point halftime deficit. A road victory in Tallahassee would've been huge. Right now, ESPN.com’s Bracketology has UVa out of the NCAA tournament in the “next four out” category, where it is slotted behind seven teams, meaning it is eight spots out of the bracket according to ESPN. Had Virginia won that game, I'm sure the projection would be different, with it either in the Big Dance or barely out, because top-10 road victories are gold.
So how should we feel about this quick rematch?
On the one hand, I feel like there's almost no way the Cavaliers can win. They could barely defeat a
Wake Forest team missing its top two players. How can they turn around just two days later and take down a team of the Seminoles' caliber?
Well, remember, we are used to seeing Virginia blow out teams. With the offense struggling, that seems nearly impossible. However, before the Wahoos went on this long run of dominance dating to 2013-14, they took their lumps with some close losses in Tony Bennett’s first few seasons. With the low-possession count of Virginia's games and the good defense it plays, it's also hard to blow the Cavaliers out. So even though UVa has a small margin of error this season, so do the opponents. The games are still close, and a turnover here or there, or a bucket here or there, could turn the tide. Virginia has come up on the wrong end of many close games, but that could change.
You only have to look at the first meeting between these teams for a reason to feel optimistic. FSU won that contest because it got off to a better start (11-2) and closed both halves better (11-0 for first half, 10-3 for second half) than Virginia did. The 'Hoos outplayed the Seminoles the rest of the time. If UVa can begin the game strong and not allow 2-3 big runs, the contest is definitely winnable.
Also, the Seminoles, though they are hot, have been shaky lately. They aren't crushing their opponents. They had lots of trouble in beating subpar Miami (83-79 in OT) and Notre Dame (85-84) squads, their two victories that followed the win over UVa.
Vegas sees this as a close game, too. Right now on ESPN.com, Virginia is listed as a one-point favorite. I think a lot of bettors would rather stay away from UVa games. The margins are so razor thin, and though it hasn't happened often, a hot-shooting Virginia team could all of a sudden really change the calculus of this matchup.
But I can't get the image of the 'Hoos struggling to beat the bad Demon Deacons out of my head. Ultimately, that's why I'm still taking the Seminoles in this matchup.
Gut feeling: Florida State wins by 5-10 points.
The Cavaliers don't have any time to celebrate their overtime win over Wake Forest, with the top-five Seminoles coming to John Paul Jones Arena tonight. FSU has won 10 games in a row and sits at 17-2 overall and 7-1 in the ACC, tied for first in the loss column with Louisville.
One of those victories came Jan. 15 over Virginia, 54-50. It was another frustrating defeat for the Cavaliers because they could not hold on to a second-half lead of 47-44 with about three minutes left. This came after they rallied from a seven-point halftime deficit. A road victory in Tallahassee would've been huge. Right now, ESPN.com’s Bracketology has UVa out of the NCAA tournament in the “next four out” category, where it is slotted behind seven teams, meaning it is eight spots out of the bracket according to ESPN. Had Virginia won that game, I'm sure the projection would be different, with it either in the Big Dance or barely out, because top-10 road victories are gold.
So how should we feel about this quick rematch?
On the one hand, I feel like there's almost no way the Cavaliers can win. They could barely defeat a
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| Mamadi Diakite gets a shot off over FSU's M.J. Walker on Jan. 15. He was the only Cavalier to reach double figures with 16 points. |
Well, remember, we are used to seeing Virginia blow out teams. With the offense struggling, that seems nearly impossible. However, before the Wahoos went on this long run of dominance dating to 2013-14, they took their lumps with some close losses in Tony Bennett’s first few seasons. With the low-possession count of Virginia's games and the good defense it plays, it's also hard to blow the Cavaliers out. So even though UVa has a small margin of error this season, so do the opponents. The games are still close, and a turnover here or there, or a bucket here or there, could turn the tide. Virginia has come up on the wrong end of many close games, but that could change.
You only have to look at the first meeting between these teams for a reason to feel optimistic. FSU won that contest because it got off to a better start (11-2) and closed both halves better (11-0 for first half, 10-3 for second half) than Virginia did. The 'Hoos outplayed the Seminoles the rest of the time. If UVa can begin the game strong and not allow 2-3 big runs, the contest is definitely winnable.
Also, the Seminoles, though they are hot, have been shaky lately. They aren't crushing their opponents. They had lots of trouble in beating subpar Miami (83-79 in OT) and Notre Dame (85-84) squads, their two victories that followed the win over UVa.
Vegas sees this as a close game, too. Right now on ESPN.com, Virginia is listed as a one-point favorite. I think a lot of bettors would rather stay away from UVa games. The margins are so razor thin, and though it hasn't happened often, a hot-shooting Virginia team could all of a sudden really change the calculus of this matchup.
But I can't get the image of the 'Hoos struggling to beat the bad Demon Deacons out of my head. Ultimately, that's why I'm still taking the Seminoles in this matchup.
Gut feeling: Florida State wins by 5-10 points.
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