Week 3 college picks

Last week: 4-3 Season: 10-4

In Week 2, I got the margin for Clemson's beatdown of The Citadel right on the money, 49 points, though I guessed 51-3 and not 49-0. I was close on the Pittsburgh-Syracuse margin (guess was 28-13, final was 21-10). Otherwise, I missed on some predictions. I got the winner right for UCF-Georgia Tech, but it was 49-21 Knights, a far cry from my 24-20 guess. And then I picked the wrong winners for Duke-Boston College, Miami-Louisville, and Wake Forest-N.C. State, though the Demon Deacons-Wolfpack margin of victory was correct at three points.

This week, UVa starts play, as does the SEC. One ACC game was postponed, Notre Dame at Wake Forest. 

No. 23 Kentucky (0-0) at No. 8 Auburn (0-0), Noon, SEC Network

Auburn 28, Kentucky 21

No. 24 Louisville (1-1) at No. 21 Pittsburgh (2-0), Noon, ACC Network

Louisville's defense has been pretty bad, but its offense is definitely the best the Panthers' strong defense has seen so far.

Pittsburgh 31, Louisville 28

Georgia Tech (1-1) at Syracuse (0-2), Noon, ESPN3

The Yellow Jackets edged Florida State in Week 1, but got blasted by UCF last week, so maybe that says something about how far the Seminoles have to go. The Orange have just 16 points in two weeks against ranked opponents, but still, what in the heck has happened to Syracuse's offense and the program in general? Just two years ago, Syracuse won 10 games and almost took down Clemson in Death Valley. The year before that, the overall record wasn't great, but the Orange did knock off the Tigers. Right now, it looks like they'd have a hard time defeating the Kitty Cats. In the crazy ACC, that means they'll beat the Jackets for their first victory.

Syracuse 20, Georgia Tech 19

No. 22 Army (2-0) at No. 14 Cincinnati (1-0), 3:30 p.m. ESPN

The Bearcats are two-touchdown favorites, but they did allow Austin Peay to score 20 points in their only game. The Black Knights, meanwhile, outscored Middle Tennessee and Louisiana-Monroe by an average score of 39.5-3.5. I think this one is close.

Cincinnati 30, Army 27

Texas State (1-2) at Boston College (1-0), 6 p.m. ESPN3

BC won in its first game under new coach Jeff Hafley, but the Bobcats have two pretty close losses against SMU and Texas-San Antonio and an easy win over Louisiana-Monroe. Maybe this will be interesting.

Boston College 31, Texas State 17

Florida State (0-1) at No. 12 Miami (2-0), 7:30 p.m. ABC

The Hurricanes coasted against UAB in the second half in Week 1, then put up 47 against Louisville. Are they ... you know ... back? Still a long way to go, but maybe. Let's see what adjustments new coach Mike Norvell makes for FSU after the Seminoles laid an egg against Georgia Tech two weeks ago. These two rivals usually play an entertaining game. Miami has won the past three matchups, last year by a 27-10 score.

Miami 27, Florida State 17

N.C. State (1-0) at No. 20 Virginia Tech (0-0), 8 p.m. ACC Network

The Hokies finally get to kick off their season after having this matchup with the Wolfpack moved from Sept. 12. State had too many COVID cases, though the rumor is Tech would not have been able to play anyway, and sure enough, Tech had to postpone its matchup with UVa last week because of its own virus issues. It sounds like there's still a possibility that several players and maybe a couple of coaches for Tech will not be able to participate in this game. Another rumor floating around is that QB Hendon Hooker -- who sparked Tech midway through 2019 -- won't play, but nothing's been confirmed. N.C. State went 4-8 last year, but the Pack's offense was impressive in a 45-42 win versus Wake Forest last week. Under normal circumstances, this feels like a Tech win, but now it sort of feels like a toss-up, because maybe N.C. State is at least decent, and we don't know how many Hokies will be out due to the lack of information coach Justin Fuente puts out. And Tech has been a slow-starting team under him. I'll take Tech, though.

Virginia Tech 27, N.C. State 24

Duke (0-2) at Virginia (0-0), 4 p.m. ACC Network

Though any sporting event taking place is tenuous these days, it appears as if the Cavaliers will kick off the 2020 season Saturday at Scott Stadium. A few things will be normal. Temperature in the mid-70s. An ACC opponent. The excitement and anticipation of a first game for players and fans.

But undoubtedly, there will be some strange things. The opponent is already 0-2. And there will be only 1,000 fans allowed in the stands, family members of players and coaches for both teams.

But football is football, and Virginia is definitely ready to do something other than practice. The Blue Devils may have an advantage since they have been able to shake off the rust the past two weeks, but they haven't looked good doing so. And the Wahoos have won the past five meetings in the series, including 48-14 in Charlottesville in 2019.

The Virginia defense celebrates after forcing
one of its five turnovers against Duke in 2019.
(John Markon)

In Week 1, Duke lost at No. 10 Notre Dame, 27-13. The offense was pretty bad, but the defense was pretty solid against a top-10 team, and the Devils were only down 10-6 at the half. Last week in their home opener against Boston College, Duke 's offense was even worse, but the team was down just 7-6 at the break. In the second half, though, the Eagles, led by first-time head coach Hafley, pulled away for a 26-6 victory.

The main problem for Duke has been turnovers. At Notre Dame, the Devils lost two fumbles. Against the Eagles, QB Chase Brice threw two picks, and they lost three more fumbles. Duke had 334 yards against the Irish and 351 against the Irish. Not great in this day and age, but not awful. The turnovers were killers. The Cavaliers are familiar with Duke's turnover issues. The Blue Devils have coughed up the ball an astounding 18 times in the five losses to Virginia dating to 2015.

If Duke could stop turning the ball over, it may have a decent chance at winning some ballgames. The defense has been pretty stout and has nine sacks already, with 3.5 from DE Victor Dimukeje alone against BC. The Devils also have two interceptions. However, this week Duke is down both starting CBs, Mark Gilbert and Josh Blackwell. Gilbert had one of the INTs.

Offensively, Brice, a Clemson transfer, has yet to throw a TD and has completed 43 of his 79 passes (54.4 percent) for 474 yards and the two INTs. Deon Jackson has 126 yards rushing. Mataeo Durant has the team's sole TD on a 49-yard rush against Notre Dame. Tight end Noah Gray paces the unit with 10 catches.

Virginia has had Duke's number, so I feel good about this game. I definitely think the Cavaliers' offense will struggle at first as it finds its groove against a tough defense. But the Wahoos come in with what should be a strong defense as well, and the offense it faces has been less than stellar. Again, I think the turnovers may have skewed the past few meetings between these schools. Maybe Duke pulls out a game or two if it hadn't turned the ball over so much. If it plays a clean game this weekend, the Blue Devils could pull off the upset (UVa is a 4.5-point favorite right now on ESPN.com). But overall, I feel fairly confident and think Virginia wins a tight one on the back of its defense.

Virginia 20, Duke 17