Week 6 college picks

Last week: 7-1 Season: 25-5

I was almost perfect again last week, but I missed out on picking N.C. State to upset Pittsburgh. I correctly thought Florida State might have trouble with Jacksonville State. However, this week, I have already missed on my Friday prediction, which I made Thursday. Georgia Tech came from two scores down to surprise Louisville, 46-27. The Cardinals are off to a 1-3 start after winning eight games last season. There are some big ACC games this week, so enjoy the action.

Friday’s game
Louisville (1-2) at Georgia Tech (1-2), 7 p.m. ESPN
The Cardinals are off to a worse start than I expected at the beginning of the season, when I predicted eight or nine victories. But they should have had a chance to correct some mistakes with a bye week, and their losses have come against Miami and Pittsburgh, both of whom may win quite a few games. Two weeks ago, the Panthers’ stout defense sacked Louisville QB Micale Cunningham seven times and picked him off three times. The Cardinals should be able to beat the Yellow Jackets, who have gotten waxed by UCF and then winless Syracuse after opening their season by beating Florida State. While I thought then that was a good win for Tech, it is now clear FSU is struggling mightily.
Louisville 38, Georgia Tech 24 (pick made before game)

Saturday’s games
No. 4 Florida (2-0) at No. 21 Texas A&M (1-1), Noon, ESPN
I think the Gators need to be careful with the Aggies. Florida has scored 51 and 38 points in its first two games against Ole Miss and South Carolina but also given up 38 and then 24. A&M had a tough time with Vanderbilt and then got crushed by Alabama, but I think it has a chance to sneak up on the Gators back at Kyle Field.
Florida 34, Texas A&M 27

No. 19 Virginia Tech (2-0) at No. 8 North Carolina (2-0), Noon, ABC
The Hokies have impressed me with their ability to overcome the loss of several players in their first two games due to COVID-19. They ended up beating Duke last week 38-31, but I think that score was a little closer than the actual game was, with Duke putting up 17 in the fourth quarter to Tech's 14. And in their opener, the Hokies blasted N.C. State 45-24, and the Wolfpack upset Pitt last week, so that win looks good right now. QB Hendon Hooker, who sparked Tech's offense last year and went 6-2 as a starter, is one of the many players who has been out, but coach Justin Fuente indicated this week he is just about a "full-go" for the game at Chapel Hill, though he hasn't named a starter. Braxton Burmeister started the first two games, and Quincy Patterson saw time against State, too. Against Duke, Tech again found success on the ground, with Kansas transfer Khalil Herbert going for an eye-popping 208 yards and a pair of TDs on 20 carries. He's got 312 yards in two games. The Tar Heels struggled to put away Boston College last week, but won, 26-22, and in their first game, they cruised by Syracuse, 31-6. Star QB Sam Howell has completed 65% of his passes, but he also has three picks. RB Michael Carter has rushed for 199 yards. These teams played one of the most exciting games in the sport last season, with Tech outlasting UNC, 43-41 in six overtimes in Blacksburg. I think this will be another tight contest, and I like Tech. I've been a bit more impressed with it so far, and Hooker could give the Hokies the extra push they need. I don't think UNC is top-10 good.
Virginia Tech 36, North Carolina 34

Red River Showdown
No. 22 Texas (2-1) vs. Oklahoma (1-2) in Dallas, Noon, Fox
This season's edition of this rivalry has lost some of its luster with the Sooners already dropping games against Kansas State and Iowa State, and the Longhorns fell to TCU last week. Oklahoma is sometimes good for one loss like that a year, but two? Does that mean the Sooners will win out now, or is this team actually not good? This game is often close. Six of the past seven contests have been decided by single digits, and Oklahoma has won five of the seven. The Sooners are 2.5-point favorites, but I like the Longhorns.
Texas 41, Oklahoma 38

Duke (0-4) at Syracuse (1-2), 12:30 p.m., ESPN3
The Orange got their first win two weeks ago over Georgia Tech and were off last week. They were blown out by UNC in their opener and played Pitt a bit tougher the next week but still lost by 11. The Blue Devils hung with the Hokies, and QB Chase Brice threw just one pick, as they got their turnovers under control a little bit. Duke has also played Notre Dame, Boston College, and Virginia tough for varying periods of those games. This one seems like a toss-up. In the crazy ACC, I'll pick the Devils to get their first victory.
Duke 27, Syracuse 26

No. 14 Tennessee (2-0) at No. 3 Georgia (2-0), 3:30 p.m. CBS
The Volunteers have won eight straight games dating to last season when they were 2-5. However, they haven't exactly beaten a murderer's row: South Carolina, UAB, Kentucky, Missouri, Vanderbilt, and Indiana to finish 2019, and then South Carolina and Missouri again to open 2020. I think coach Jeremy Pruitt has made some strides in Knoxville, but not to the point where they'll be able to beat the Bulldogs in Athens.
Georgia 30, Tennessee 13

Pittsburgh (3-1) at Boston College (2-1), 4 p.m. ACC Network
This is an interesting matchup. The Panthers were off to a 4-0 start until N.C. State eked past them on the final drive last week. The Eagles have two victories under first-year coach Jeff Hafley, and they fought hard last week in their loss to UNC, supposedly a top-10 team team. Who is a bit better/worse than they appear? Give me Pitt, but I think underestimated BC at the beginning of the season.
Pittsburgh 27, Boston College 23

No. 7 Miami (3-0) at No. 1 Clemson (3-0), 7:30 p.m. ABC
This could be the most intriguing game this weekend, or just another example of how far ahead the Tigers are of the rest of the ACC. Clemson has cruised to an undefeated record -- no surprise -- but it didn't destroy Wake Forest as badly as it has in years past in a 37-13 victory, and then UVa was close to making it a ballgame in the third quarter, down 27-17 before Clemson prevailed 41-23. Were those just warmup games for Clemson, which is getting ready to shift into high gear? Or are there some cracks in the armor showing? The Hurricanes were off last week after clobbering Florida State 52-10. Before that, Miami pulled away from UAB in the second half of its opener in a 31-14 win and then downed Louisville in a 47-34 shootout. Hurricanes transfer QB D'Eriq King has been very good so far, completing 67% of his passes with six TDs and no picks. RB Cam'Ron Harris has 311 rushing yards. Like Virginia, I think Miami will be able to test Clemson, but I see the Tigers ultimately pulling away. They'll be ready for this hyped matchup and not caught off guard.
Clemson 40, Miami 27

Florida State (1-2) at No. 5 Notre Dame (2-0), 7:30 p.m. NBC
The Fighting Irish haven't played since Sept. 19. I imagine they'll be eager to shake off some rust, and the Seminoles look like the perfect team to do that against right now. FSU was down 21-14 to Jacksonville State last week before avoiding the upset with a 41-24 victory.
Notre Dame 38, Florida State 17

N.C. State (2-1) at Virginia (1-1), Noon, ACC Network
The Cavaliers host the Wolfpack in a crucial early-season matchup that could determine what kind of season Virginia will be aiming for down the stretch run of the season.

In their opener, the Wahoos had some trouble with Duke, but pulled away in the fourth quarter. The Blue Devils appear to be an ACC bottom-feeder. Last week, UVa hung admirably with national title contender Clemson into the second half, but the final score wasn't that close (even if it was tighter than expected). This week's game against N.C. State could be a better barometer than the first two of just where Virginia falls in the ACC pecking order in 2020. Is Virginia a top-half-of-the-league team that could possibly dream of nine wins and getting to the ACC championship again? Or are the Cavaliers a bottom-half-of-the-league team that might have to fight to get to 6-5?

N.C. State seems to be a program more on UVa's level. Virginia last faced State in Raleigh in 2018 and battled but lost 35-21 to a solid squad. Under coach Dave Doeren, the Wolfpack won nine games in 2017 and 2018 before crashing down to four victories in 2019. This 'Pack team seems to be better than last year's edition, but it is still too early to know how good it is. In its opener, State defeated Wake Forest in a 45-42 shootout. Wake is 1-2 with a 37-13 loss to Clemson and an easy victory over Campbell. The next week, in Virginia Tech's opener, the Hokies pounded State with their run game, and the 'Pack went down, 45-24. It was 31-10 at halftime. And then last week, State used a dramatic final drive with 1:44 left to score a TD and topple previously 3-0 Pittsburgh, 30-29.

So as you can see, it is still kind of tough to judge the conference at this point. There's Clemson, and then everyone else is in prove-it mode. Prove to me how good you are. Miami obviously gets a chance to make a big statement this weekend against the Tigers. We will get more data on Virginia Tech and UNC in their clash. Pitt and BC square off, and we will get to see if the Panthers are maybe just a pretender or if the Eagles may actually be more than decent. And this UVa-State matchup is a litmus test, too.

State has found consistent QB play over its past 1.5 games to go along with a strong rushing attack. In the second half against Virginia Tech, Doeren benched Bailey Hockman and inserted Devin Leary, who played a lot over the second half of 2019 and was mostly unimpressive. But he's looked good so far in 2020. Against the Hokies, he went 12 for 16 for 165 yards, one TD, and zero INTs. He was sacked three times. And against the Panthers, he really burst onto the scene, finishing 28 of 44 for 336 yards, four scores, and no picks. In that one, he was sacked twice. On the game-winning drive, he went 6 for 8 for 74 yards. On the season, he's at 40 for 60 (66.7%) for 501 yards with five TDs. Like Brennan Armstrong, Leary is just a redshirt sophomore, so hopefully the Wahoos can rattle him with some pressure. He is not a running QB, so that could aid in keeping him in the pocket. Leary's credentials are impressive. As a New Jersey high schooler, he was the two-time Gatorade Player of the Year.

The Wolfpack sport a balanced running game with Zonovan Knight and Ricky Person Jr. Knight has 220 yards (6.9 ypc) and one TD, and Person has 202 yards (4.9 ypc) and three scores. Jordan Houston has 21 carries but only 3.7 ypc. WR Emeka Emezie leads the 'Pack with 12 catches, and he has two TDs, including last week's game winner on a back-shoulder fade. He has good size, and Leary will probably look his way a couple of times and let Emezie go snatch the ball out of the air. TE Cary Angeline is a huge target in the middle of the field who has eight catches, with three going for TDs. WR Devin Carter has 10 receptions and a TD.

State's defense has been porous. Wake Forest put up 385 yards, with 149 coming on the ground. The Hokies piled up an incredible 314 rushing yards. Pitt recorded 503 yards, with 411 coming through the air. So teams have shown they can run it against the 'Pack and pass it. UVa has looked good at times both the running and passing games. The Wahoos, who posted more than 400 yards on Clemson, will likely be able to rack up a good-looking yardage number. As usual, it will probably come down to converting in the red zone. Hopefully Armstrong can avoid throwing two interceptions this week, something he did versus Duke and at Clemson. N.C. State has no picks so far and has only recovered one fumble, so it has not been disruptive on defense. LB Drake Thomas leads the team in tackles and has two sacks. DE Daniel Joseph has two sacks as well. Virginia's offensive line has done a good job of keeping pressure off Armstrong for the most part.

Though this is only Virginia's third game, it feels pretty big. Win, and the 'Hoos are 2-1 with another winnable contest next week against Wake Forest. Lose, and they are 1-2 with tough Miami and North Carolina teams looming in late October. It is important they go at least 1-1 over these next two games. Lose both, and they are really behind the 8-ball. Win both, and they are looking really good with the Hurricanes and Heels coming up on the docket.

I do like Virginia to pull this one out. The Wahoos have won nine straight at Scott Stadium dating to 2018. Hopefully they get off to a faster start than they did against Duke and can bring in some momentum from the Clemson game. I like their ability to move up and down the field on this defense. Leary has been impressive, but he's still young, and I think UVa's defense could get to him a few times. However, Virginia must do a better job of tackling this week. The Cavaliers opened as a nine-point favorite, which seemed too high. Now it is down to seven, but I still think it may be closer.
Virginia 31, N.C. State 27