Last week: 5-4 Season: 34-15
Syracuse (1-4) at No. 1 Clemson (5-0), Noon, ACC Network
How can it be that just two years ago, the Orange nearly knocked off the Tigers in Death Valley? This week, Clemson is a 46-point favorite over 'Cuse. Wow.
Clemson 56, Syracuse 10
No. 23 N.C. State (4-1) at No. 14 North Carolina (3-1), Noon, ESPN
The Wolfpack lost starting QB Devin Leary to a broken fibula in the third quarter of last week's 31-20 comeback win over Duke, so they will have to go back to backup Bailey Hockman, who started the Wake Forest and Virginia Tech games while Leary was out as a result of COVID-19. Leary had been playing well, but not lights out, and the 'Pack struggled early on versus the Blue Devils, so it's not like this is necessarily a death knell for State. The Tar Heels had their own struggles, finding themselves down 31-7 at the half against what previously looked like a pitiful Florida State squad. They mounted their own comeback but fell in Tallahassee, 31-28. With Leary out, I'll pick UNC to bounce back, but I think this will probably be close-ish.
North Carolina 34, N.C. State 24
Florida State (2-3) at Louisville (1-4), Noon, ESPN3
The Seminoles rushed for 241 yards in their upset of North Carolina and appear to be improving in Mike Norvell's first season at the helm. Two weeks ago, they were fairly competitive at Notre Dame while losing 42-26. Louisville won eight games in 2019, and Scott Satterfield was named ACC coach of the year, but the Cardinals are off to a terrible start in 2020. They got blown out in the second half of a 46-27 loss to Georgia Tech two weeks ago, but then played Notre Dame tough last week in a 12-7 defeat. I could see this one going either way.
Florida State 34, Louisville 31
No. 3 Notre Dame (4-0) at Pittsburgh (3-3), 3:30 p.m. ABC
The Fighting Irish only managed to record 338 yards against Louisville and didn't take the lead until late in the third quarter last week. The Panthers got off to a 3-0 start but have since lost one-point games to N.C. State and Boston College and then 31-19 to Miami. QB Kenny Pickett was injured against BC and didn't play against Miami. Joey Yellen will get the call again after completing 22 of 46 passes for 277 yards and a score at Miami. I'll take the Irish, but they need to be careful.
Notre Dame 27, Pittsburgh 20
No. 17 Iowa State (3-1) at No. 6 Oklahoma State (3-0), 3:30 p.m. Fox
The Cyclones lost to Louisiana-Lafayette 31-14 to open the season but have since beaten TCU, Oklahoma and Texas Tech. The Cowboys own victories over Tulsa, West Virginia, and Kansas.
Oklahoma State 31, Iowa State 27
No. 19 Virginia Tech (3-1) at Wake Forest (2-2), 3:30 p.m. ESPN3
The Hokies are playing well, and the Demon Deacons are probably a little bit better than people think, but I like Tech to defeat a solid Wake squad for the second straight season after it won 36-17 in Lane Stadium in 2019.
Virginia Tech 34, Wake Forest 24
Georgia Tech (2-3) at Boston College (3-2), 4 p.m. ACC Network
Last week, the Yellow Jackets got lit up by Clemson 73-7, and the Eagles were walloped by Virginia Tech 40-14. Both teams have had good moments and bad moments, but I think BC is better.
Boston College 27, Georgia Tech 21
Little Brown Jug
No. 18 Michigan (0-0) at No. 21 Minnesota (0-0), 7:30 p.m. ABC
Big Ten football gets going this week, and this is a good one right off the bat. These schools battle for the "Little Brown Jug," which, like most trophies in college football rivalries, holds an interesting backstory. These teams last met in 2017, with Michigan winning 33-10. Minnesota's last victory came in 2014 by a score of 30-14. The Wolverines have won eight of the past nine meetings. Michigan went 9-4 last season and lost to Alabama 35-16 in the Citrus Bowl. Minnesota went 11-2 and defeated Auburn 31-24 in the Outback Bowl. The forecast calls for a temperature below freezing.
Minnesota 23, Michigan 20
Virginia (1-3) at No. 11 Miami (4-1), 8 p.m. ACC Network
The Cavaliers and Hurricanes both own similar losses to Clemson: UVa fell 41-23, and Miami was defeated 42-17. Both games were somewhat competitive, relative to the Tigers' standard. Virginia was down 24-3 at the half but made it 27-17 with 6:05 left in the third quarter before consecutive Clemson TDs shut down any thoughts of an upset. Miami was down 21-3, and Clemson was trying to add to its lead with a 61-yard field goal at the end of the first half. The Hurricanes blocked it and ran 48 yards the other way for a touchdown to make it 21-10. Both teams turned it over in the early going of the third quarter, and then Tigers RB Travis Etienne broke the game open with a 72-yard TD run midway through the frame.
But a somewhat respectable loss to Clemson is the only thing Miami and UVa have in common in 2020. Otherwise, the Cavaliers own one win over Duke and double-digit losses to N.C. State and Wake Forest. The Hurricanes possess four double-digit victories, over UAB (31-14), Louisville (47-34), Florida State (52-10), and Pittsburgh (31-19).
Miami's transfer QB from Houston, D'Eriq King, is fifth in the ACC in total offense per game. He's completed 59.5% of his passes, which isn't especially accurate, but he's mostly avoided interceptions, only throwing four. King has 10 touchdowns and 1,079 yards (215.8 per game). He's been sacked 11 times, with eight of those coming the past two weeks, with Pitt and Clemson getting four each. On the ground, he's rushed for 273 yards (5.2 ypc) and two scores. He leads the nation's Power Five QBs in missed tackles forced. RB Cam'Ron Harris is Miami's leading rusher with 338 yards on 58 carries (5.8 ypc) and five TDs. TE Brevin Jordan is the Hurricanes' top receiver with 18 catches for 243 yards and three TDs. King likes to find his tight ends for scores, because the other main TE, Will Mallory, has only five catches, but three have gone for TDs. WRs Mike Harley and Mark Pope have 17 and 16 receptions, respectively, with one score for Harley.
Defensively, Miami is giving up 24 points and almost 400 yards per game, nothing especially stout. DLs Jared Harrison-Hunte and Quincy Roche have three and 2.5 sacks, respectively. CB Al Blades Jr. leads the unit with two picks, and LB Jaelan Phillips and safety Bubba Bolden have one each.
Absent Brennan Armstrong, UVa went with a combination of Lindell Stone, Keytaon Thompson, and Ira Armstead at QB last week, and it was somewhat effective. Armstrong's status for tonight is uncertain. If Armstrong can't go, I think UVa will go with a similar look. And even if Armstrong plays, I'd be fine with the Wahoos mixing in Thompson and Armstead. Why not? Virginia is not expected to win, so might as well pull out all the stops and see if it can keep Miami off balance.
But UVa's main and most surprising issue has been its defense. I think it will be tough for it to keep King and the 'Canes down for long. And I don't have enough faith in the offense to win in any kind of shootout.
Still, the 'Hoos typically play the Hurricanes tough. In 2017 at Hard Rock Stadium, UVa led No. 2 and undefeated Miami 28-14 in the third before losing, 44-28. Of course, in a game all fans remember from 2007, UVa shut out Miami in the last game at the Orange Bowl, 48-0. In 2010, a pretty bad Virginia team went up 24-0 on No. 22 Miami at Scott Stadium and held on for a 24-19 victory. The Cavaliers won at Miami, 28-21, in 2011. In 2012, the 'Hoos outlasted the 'Canes in a shootout in Charlottesville, 41-40. In 2014, a 6-4 Miami team that just lost in a tight game at No. 2 Florida State came to Scott and was stunned, 30-13, in a game UVa controlled throughout.
Whether it has been the Cavaliers being focused, or Miami being lackadaisical, the matchups in the series have tended to be at least be close. I'm not going to rule out a possible upset. It can happen. I don't think the Hurricanes are top-10 good this year, though they've improved. But with the mistakes UVa has made over the past two weeks, I don't see it happening. I think the 'Hoos will hang around, but ultimately, a late miscue or Miami score puts the game out of reach.
Miami 34, Virginia 21
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