Week 9 college picks

Last week: 6-3 Season: 40-18 

Boston College (4-2) at No. 1 Clemson (6-0), Noon, ABC
The Tigers took a blow this week when it was revealed that star QB Trevor Lawrence tested positive for COVID-19 and is out for this matchup. Clemson was about a 30-point favorite and is now a 24.5-point favorite, per ESPN.com. Massive 6-foot-4, 250-pound freshman D.J. Uiagalelei will start under center instead. Uiagalelei, a five-star recruit who was the No. 10-ranked player in the 2020 class per 247Sports and top-ranked pro-style QB, has seen action in five games this season, completing 12 of 19 passes for 102 yards with no TDs and no INTs. He's rushed for 32 yards and a pair of scores. The Eagles bounced back from a blowout loss to Virginia Tech by blowing out Georgia Tech, 48-27, last week. The Tigers appeared to sleepwalk a bit in beating Syracuse, 47-21. Coach Jeff Hafley is doing a good job in his first year at BC. This could be an interesting game with the Tigers down Lawrence, but I still expect them to get it done, with the defense stepping up. And BC still needs to deal with all-world RB Travis Etienne.
Clemson 27, Boston College 16

Memphis (3-1) at No. 7 Cincinnati (4-0), Noon, ESPN
The Tigers have wins over Arkansas State, UCF, and Temple and a close loss to SMU. The Bearcats have victories over Austin Peay, Army, South Florida, and SMU, which they crushed. These two schools played a pair of big games last season in back-to-back weeks: to close the regular season and then in the AAC championship, with Memphis winning both, 34-24 and then 29-24. I like Cincy to get some revenge at home.
Cincinnati 38, Memphis 31

Paul Bunyan Trophy
Michigan State (0-1) at No. 13 Michigan (1-0), Noon, Fox
In Week 1 of Big Ten action, the Spartans lost to Rutgers, 38-27. Rutgers went 2-10 last season and then hired former coach Greg Schiano to come back to the school. Schiano may prove to once again be a good coach at Rutgers, but still, that loss is not a good sign for MSU, which is in its first year under former Colorado coach Mel Tucker after Mark Dantonio resigned in February. Tucker went 5-7 in one year with the Buffaloes. Before that, he was Georgia's defensive coordinator for three seasons. The Wolverines, meanwhile, smacked Minnesota on the road in surprisingly dominating fashion. MSU beat Michigan eight out of 10 times from 2008-17, but the Wolverines have won the past two, 21-7 and 44-10. Give me Michigan.
Michigan 35, Michigan State 16

Wake Forest (3-2) at Syracuse (1-5), Noon, ACC Network
The Demon Deacons might be pretty good? They are just a few points away from avoiding a loss to N.C. State and being 4-1 with just a setback against Clemson. A week after defeating UVa 40-23, they topped Virginia Tech, 23-16. I said in the preseason if Wake can attain a winning record in 2020 after losing so much talent on offense, Dave Clawson should get ACC coach of the year consideration. Syracuse made some plays last week at Clemson, including a pick-6 by Garrett Williams off of Trevor Lawrence. The Orange now have Rex Culpepper at QB after Tommy DeVito suffered a leg injury versus Duke earlier this month. He may be out for the season. Culpepper is a senior with a feel-good story, having beaten testicular cancer in 2018.
Wake Forest 34, Syracuse 23

No. 4 Notre Dame (5-0) at Georgia Tech (2-4), 3:30 p.m. ABC
The Fighting Irish defeated Florida State three weeks ago, 42-26, when the defense struggled a bit, and Louisville 12-7 two weeks ago, when the offense struggled a bit. But last week, they put it all together in dumping Pittsburgh, 45-3. I don’t think the Yellow Jackets, though they may be improving, will be able to put up a huge fight.
Notre Dame 38, Georgia Tech 17

Virginia Tech (3-2) at Louisville (2-4), 4 p.m. ACC Network
Hokies QB Hendon Hooker threw three interceptions in their loss to Wake Forest last week. He will have to play a cleaner game against Louisville, which finally got a win over Florida State, easily 48-16, after four straight losses. Tech's defense has not been very solid, and that could be a problem against the Cardinals, who really got rolling against the Seminoles to the tune of 569 yards. But still to this point in the season, Tech has been better, while Louisville has been disappointing.
Virginia Tech 27, Louisville 24

Charlotte (2-2) at Duke (1-5), 7 p.m. ESPN3
Duke has had a rough year, but I think it will get by the 49ers, who have losses to Appalachian State (by 15) and Florida Atlantic (by four) and victories over North Texas (by 28) and UTEP (by 10). Charlotte finished 7-6 last season, making its first bowl game appearance, where it lost to Buffalo in the Bahamas Bowl. I wouldn't be surprised if it challenges the Blue Devils.
Duke 30, Charlotte 20

No. 3 Ohio State (1-0) at No. 18 Penn State (0-1), 7:30 p.m. ABC
Before last week's game against Indiana, Penn State coach James Frankin tweeted out, "Indiana, Indiana, Indiana!!! 1-0!!!" This week, he typed out "Ohio State" about a million times in one tweet, many more than the three times for Indiana. The Nittany Lions were upset by the Hoosiers last week, 36-35, so I think it looks like his mind was already on the Buckeyes. Without the normal sellout crowd exhorting them on in a White Out at Happy Valley, the Lions are expected to fall to 0-2. OSU clobbered Nebraska 52-17 last week. Ohio State has won seven of the past eight meetings. Penn State's most recent win in the series came in 2016 at home, 24-21, on the strength of a blocked field goal TD return in the final minutes. I don't see any such miracle happening the time.
Ohio State 38, Penn State 31

South’s Oldest Rivalry
No. 15 North Carolina (4-1) at Virginia (1-4), 8 p.m. ACC Network
UVa hosts a classic rival this weekend in a tough matchup as it tries to snap its four-game losing streak.

This will be the 125th meeting between these two teams, with UNC holding the 63-57-4 all-time edge in the series. In the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, starting in 1983, Virginia famously won every game in Charlottesville, sometimes in spectacular or surprising fashion. In total, the winning streak in Hooville reached 14 games for the Cavaliers. UNC then won four in a row at Scott Stadium in 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016, part of a seven-game winning streak overall. Most recently, UVa has grabbed the momentum back, capturing victory in the past three meetings: 20-14 in 2017 at Chapel Hill, 31-21 in 2018 in Charlottesville, and 38-31 in 2019 at Chapel Hill.

But Virginia has its work cut out for it if it hopes to keep the recent dominance going. Like last year, UNC has a high-octane offensive attack. But Virginia does not have Bryce Perkins to match and outdo Tar Heels QB Sam Howell's exploits like it did last season. It's up to first-year starter Brennan Armstrong and the rest of the Cavaliers to start manufacturing more points after scoring 20.3 points per game in the four consecutive losses.

North Carolina ranks 20th in the country in scoring (37.8 ppg), 12th in rushing offense (249 ypg), and 22nd in passing offense (282.2 ypg), so Virginia's defense, which did play better against Miami than in weeks before, faces a tall task. Howell, a sophomore, has completed 64.2% of his passes for 1,403 yards, 10 TDs, and four INTs. His favorite targets are WRs Dyami Brown (24 receptions, 401 yards, three TDs), Dazz Newsome (15, 151, one), and Beau Corrales (13, 283, one), though Corrales could be out with an injury. The Heels feature a balanced rushing attack behind Michael Carter and Javonte Williams. Carter has 584 yards (7.9 ypc, first in the ACC) and three TDs. Williams has 562 yards (6.9 ypc, third in the ACC) and 10 TDs already, which is second in the conference. Carter leads the ACC in rushing yards per game, and Williams is third. Everywhere you turn, UNC has a playmaker on offense. Virginia's defense has had a problem giving up long pass plays this season and also allowing first-down conversions on third-and-long situations. It's got to do a better job this week, because it can't afford to give this offense extra opportunities. It won't be easy. Safeties Joey Blount and Brenton Nelson have been dealing with injuries and may be out again.

UNC's defense, on the other hand, has been just OK. It ranks 35th in scoring defense (25 ppg, which is respectable), 37th in rushing defense (128.6 ypg), and 60th in passing defense (246.2 ypg). LB Chazz Surratt leads the team with 32 tackles and is tied for the team lead with fellow LB Tomon Fox with four sacks. Tomon's younger brother, DL Tomari, has three sacks. Surratt and DBs Don Chapman, Trey Morrison, and Cameron Roseman-Sinclair each have an interception. UNC is +1 in turnover margin, while UVa is -5. The Wahoos have forced only one turnover since getting seven against Duke in the opener (pick against N.C. State).

UNC's victories have come over Syracuse (31-6), Boston College (26-22), Virginia Tech (56-45), and N.C. State last week (48-21). The loss, a very perplexing one, came two weeks ago at Florida State (31-28). The Heels were down 31-7 to the Seminoles at the half and nearly rallied for the win. FSU recorded a pick-6 of Howell in that upset. That hiccup aside, UNC looks like one of the best teams in the ACC this year not named Clemson or Notre Dame. Mack Brown has done a great job in his second year in Chapel Hill and is bringing in even more talent through recruiting.

If Virginia could exploit Carolina's weak defense, it could have a real shot at the upset. Those of us watching the Cavaliers week in and week out know they are better than their 1-4 record, but they are just making all the wrong plays at all the wrong times. Armstrong was able to avoid throwing a pick in a game for the first time last week at Miami, but he's got to be even better to pull this out. He's going to have to be Perkins-esque. I don't have faith in offensive coordinator Robert Anae to stick with the run, even if it is working. He did against UNC in 2017, when Jordan Ellis carried the ball 27 times for 136 yards, but that is the exception rather than the rule with Anae. So I think Armstrong has got to go win this one. UVa's defense showed up last week, but given its results over most of the season, I don't think it will be able to make this a low-scoring struggle.

Even if the 'Hoos do improve, this matchup is a tough one to show that on the scoreboard, because North Carolina is very good this season. UNC has been weaker on the road than at home, and I think this game could be competitive for a while. But it is just difficult for me to envision a victory at this point, with Virginia's inability to make big positive plays, and its penchant for making or allowing big negative plays.
North Carolina 36, Virginia 24