St. Francis, Pa. (1-1) at No. 15 Virginia (1-1), Tuesday 4 p.m. ACC Network
The Virginia basketball team is 1-1 after an impressive 89-54 win in the opener against Towson and an equally unimpressive 61-60 loss to San Francisco over the holiday weekend.
On Tuesday afternoon, UVa takes the floor at John Paul Jones Arena for the first time to face the Red Flash. St. Francis could be a challenge, too. It went 22-10 overall and 13-5 in the Northeast Conference last year. The Red Flash defeated an ACC team, Pittsburgh, in their opener, 80-70, and then lost to none other than UMBC, 80-65, on Saturday.
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| Jay Huff dunks the ball against Towson. Can the redshirt senior help lead the 'Hoos to a better record than in 2019-20? (Associated Press) |
Normally, I wouldn't think much of this game and would assume it would be an easy win for Virginia. But two factors make me think about it just a bit. One is obvious, and that is because the 'Hoos did not look that great against the Dons. And the second reason is because this is not your typical home opener. No one is going to be there, so the usual lively JPJ atmosphere will be lacking, meaning the Cavaliers will need to create their own energy. But I think coach Tony Bennett was able to get the players' attention after the defeat, and we will see a workmanlike attitude and victory against the Red Flash.
For the 11th straight season, I'm going to go game by game and predict regular-season wins and losses for the Cavaliers. It's possible I went from overestimating the number of victories after Wednesday to underestimating after Friday.
Granted, already having two games of information could help me be more accurate, but I do tend to underrate how the Cavaliers will fare. However, though I did not make an official prediction before the USF game, it's safe to say I would have guessed a win. So I'll go ahead and mark that down as a victory in my estimated tally.
Here's a look at how I've done in previous seasons, with the difference in estimated victories and actual victories at the end of each line (remember, this only looks at the regular season):
My 2010-11 prediction: 14-16 (5-11); actual record: 16-14 (7-9): +2
My 2011-12 prediction: 21-9 (10-6); actual record: 22-8 (9-7): +1
My 2012-13 prediction: 17-14 (8-10); actual record: 21-10 (11-7): +4
My 2013-14 prediction: 23-8 (13-5); actual record: 25-6 (16-2): +1
My 2014-15 prediction: 24-6 (14-4); actual record: 28-2 (16-2): +4
My 2015-16 prediction: 25-5 (14-4); actual record: 24-6 (13-5): -1
My 2016-17 prediction: 20-10 (10-8); actual record: 21-9 (11-7): +1
My 2017-18 prediction: 20-10 (11-7); actual record: 28-2 (17-1): +8
My 2018-19 prediction: 26-4 (14-4); actual record: 28-2 (16-2): +2
My 2019-20 prediction: 24-6 (15-5); actual record: 23-7 (15-5): -1
So last season was the first time since 2015-16 and only the second time since I've been doing this that I overestimated Virginia's number of wins, albeit by one victory, and I did nail the ACC record, the first time I've done that.
OK, let's take a look at this season. I am including the William & Mary game for now. That contest has been postponed after positive COVID-19 tests in the W&M program. It was originally scheduled for Dec. 12. I will assume it gets made up or UVa picks up a similar in-state program to play that day. You could say it is foolish to even do a prediction like this with so much uncertainty swirling, but it is fun and still will give myself and you guys a general idea of where I think the Wahoos will land.
vs. Towson in Uncasville, Conn. - W (actual: W, 89-54)
vs. San Francisco in Uncasville, Conn. - W (actual: L, 61-60)
vs. St. Francis, Pa. - W
vs. Kent State - W
vs. Michigan State - L
vs. William & Mary - W (game may occur with a different team or may not happen at all)
at Wake Forest - W
vs. Villanova in New York - W
at Notre Dame - W
vs. Virginia Tech - W
vs. Wake Forest - W
at Boston College - W
vs. Notre Dame - W
at Clemson - L
vs. N.C. State - W
vs. Georgia Tech - W
vs. Syracuse - W
at Virginia Tech - L
at N.C. State - W
vs. Louisville - W
at Georgia Tech - W
vs. North Carolina - W
at Florida State - L
at Duke - W
vs. Pittsburgh - W
vs. Miami - W
at Louisville - L
Prediction: 22-5 (16-4 ACC)
There you go. I've got the 'Hoos only losing to Michigan State the rest of the way in the nonconference slate, meaning I'm thinking they'll improve and learn from that and then defeat Villanova at Madison Square Garden. In the ACC, I have the 'Hoos losing at Clemson, Virginia Tech, Florida State, and Louisville. Other trouble games, to me, are vs. Syracuse, at N.C. State, vs. Louisville, vs. North Carolina, and at Duke. The Cameron Crazies being absent will make that more of a neutral-floor game than ever before, and I like the Cavaliers' experience to win the day.
On the other hand, speaking of home-court advantages, I may be thinking about a loud and raucous JPJ a little too much, maybe, by predicting UVa will go undefeated there. Instead, it will unfortunately be a huge, empty building and won't hold that same feeling and spirit.
A 16-4 record in the conference would put UVa firmly in the conversation for winning the ACC regular-season title. Most years, it would mean a great NCAA tournament seed as well, though last season, even with the 'Hoos sitting at 23-7 and 15-5, it seemed like they were going to need to go on a run in the ACC tournament to land a No. 4 seed or better in the Big Dance thanks to poorer-than-usual computer metrics.
This whole schedule could change. Nothing can be ruled out this season. Let's just hope we get to the end of it and then see the guys in the NCAA tournament, one that actually gets played.
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