Virginia football schedule preview: North Carolina

Media darling North Carolina -- ranked in the top 10 of both the Associated Press and coaches polls to begin the season -- opens ACC play for Virginia in mid-September. Hopefully, the 'Hoos are 2-0 heading into this matchup. Coach Mack Brown went 7-6 in his first season back in Chapel Hill in 2019 and then 8-4 last year. Is Virginia's rival going to be able to take another step in 2021? Most of the Tar Heels' defense is back, and they return their star QB. But they must protect him better.

When: Sept. 18, 7:30 p.m. Where: Chapel Hill
Series record: UNC leads "South's Oldest Rivalry," 63-58-2 or 62-59-2; in 1956, UNC won but later forfeited the game because of an ineligible player, and UNC still counts this game as a win for itself while UVa does not.
Last meeting: Oct. 31, 2020; UVa won, 44-41 Streak: Four straight for Virginia
Last year's record: 8-4, 7-3 ACC; lost to No. 5 Texas A&M, 41-27, in Orange Bowl
Best win: at No. 10 Miami, 62-26
Worst loss: at Florida State, 31-28; Seminoles finished 3-6
Coach: Mack Brown (third year in second stint at school, 84-56-1 career at UNC, 259-132-1 overall career)
Starters returning: 20 (8 offense, 10 defense, 2 specialists)
Offensive player to watch: QB Sam Howell. Who else? As a sophomore in 2020, Howell completed 68.1% of his passes (15th nationally ) for 3,586 yards (13th), 30 touchdowns (sixth), and seven interceptions. He also rushed for 146 yards and five more scores. Howell was sacked 33 times, though, with UNC tied for 101st, giving up 2.83 sacks per game. The entire offensive line returns, so you'd have to expect Howell to take fewer sacks, though the offense also needs to break in new offensive skill players with the exits of RBs Michael Carter and Javonte Williams and WRs Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome to the NFL, so that could certainly impact Howell's decision-making as well.
Defensive player to watch: LB Tomon Fox. Fox, a senior who is the older brother of UNC junior defensive lineman Tomari Fox, collected 36 tackles, 10.5 for losses, seven sacks, seven QB hurries, and one forced fumble in 2020.
Special teams player to watch: P Ben Kiernan. An Irishman, Kiernan booted his punts an average of 43.7 yards in 2020, with 16 landing inside the 20-yard line.
Fun fact: For the second season in three years, North Carolina and Wake Forest will meet in a nonconference game despite both schools being in the ACC. Being in opposing ACC divisions, Wake and UNC do not play each other much, so a few seasons ago, they decided to play a pair of games that would not count in the conference standings. In 2019, the Demon Deacons hosted the Tar Heels and beat them, 24-18. This year, UNC hosts Wake. Because of the way the pandemic changed the 2020 schedule, the teams did end up playing last year as well in a game that did count in the ACC standings. That was a barnburner that the Heels won, 59-53. Yes, that's not a typo or the final score of a Virginia basketball game. UNC defeated Wake 59-53 on the football field last season. So just remember -- if you are looking at North Carolina's schedule trying to figure out its four nonconference games and find yourself only counting three -- don't forget Wake Forest.
Season prediction: North Carolina is predicted to win the ACC Coastal Division by the conference's media, and 16 brave souls even chose the Tar Heels to win the whole conference, compared to 125 votes given to Clemson.
Early game thoughts: Virginia's 44-41 victory over North Carolina in 2020 was the Wahoos' biggest win and at least helped them finish with a respectable .500 record. UNC was supposed to win that game, and it is supposed to win this year's matchup, too. But the Cavaliers' confidence should be high coming into this contest because they have beaten the Heels in four straight games, and they'll have an extra boost if they can enter Kenan Stadium at 2-0. Right off the bat, UNC faces Virginia Tech on the road. If the Heels win that game, they'll likely defeat Georgia State the next week, and then the 'Hoos will have a chance at knocking off a top-10 team on the road. This should be a fun game and a great opportunity for Virginia. Though the 2020 campaign was solid, UNC is starting to enter "prove it" territory -- prove you are the best team in the division and also that you can beat UVa. Howell is terrific, but can his defense, offensive line, and new skill players step up and help him guide the team to a truly special season?

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