Will the UVa defense wake up tonight and show fight vs. Deacs?

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Wake Forest at Virginia, 7 p.m. ESPN2

A week after the Tar Heels went over the half-century mark against Virginia, the Wahoos are back at home to defend their home field against another high-octane offense.

I was a bit busy last weekend getting married (!), so no recap for the North Carolina game. I did eventually get around to watching it, though. Suffice to say, the defense is a major concern. And the offense might legitimately be top shelf? Dare I say Brennan Armstrong is a darkhorse Heisman contender? Being a pessimistic Virginia football fan, the first sentence seems more certain, while the latter two sentences still seem crazy to me but possibly true.

There were a number of injuries last week for Virginia (2-1, 0-1 ACC) and safety Nick Grant did not even start, but the depth chart remained the same this week, so maybe that means none of the injuries were that bad. I did not get around to watching coach Bronco Mendenhall's news conference this week.

Things do not get much easier for the defense this evening. Wake Forest may not have the brand-name recognition and media narrative pushing it like North Carolina does, but Wake has been the more consistent program over the past few seasons. The Demon Deacons come into Scott Stadium with an undefeated record (though it has faced only bad teams) and another Sam at QB who can do damage like UNC’s Howell. Let’s take a deeper look at some details for tonight’s matchup with Wake Forest:

Wake Forest’s record: 3-0 (1-0 ACC)
Wins: Old Dominion, Norfolk State, Florida State (all home)
Coach: Dave Clawson (eighth year, 43-45; 133-124 career)
Series record: UVa leads, 34-16
Last meeting: Oct. 17, 2020; Wake Forest won, 40-23 Streak: Four straight for Wake
Line: UVa by 3.5 (as of Friday afternoon)
Over/under: 70

Wake Forest offense: It’s early, and the competition has not been stiff, but QB Sam Hartman, who is listed as a sophomore but is in his third full season starting and his fourth year in the program, is looking like this could be his best year yet. He’s completed 68.7% of his passes for 691 yards, six TDs, and just one INT as the Demon Deacons have crushed the Monarchs, Spartans, and Seminoles. FSU did register the pick against him and sacked him three times. The Monarchs sacked him twice. RB Christian Beal-Smith has 229 yards (5.9 ypc) and four scores. RB Christian Turner has 121 yards (3.8 ypc) and two TDs. A.T. Perry, a 6-foot-5 target, and last year’s breakout star, Jaquarii Roberson, lead the receiving corps with 13 and 12 catches, respectively. They each have two TDs, and Perry is averaging almost 20 yards per catch.

Wake Forest defense: Again, the competition hasn't been good so far, but the Demon Deacons' defense has yet to give up more than 16 points, so that's great, but 16 is actually how many FCS squad Norfolk State put up, so that could be a blemish for Wake. But anyway, ODU scored 10 points and put up 272 yards, FSU recorded 14 points and 317 yards, and the Spartans tallied 336 yards. The Deacons got three sacks and two INTs versus ODU, posted three sacks and one pick against NSU, and got four sacks and six turnovers against FSU. (How did the Deacs not beat the Seminoles by more?) LB Luke Masterson leads the unit with 18 tackles. DL Dion Bergan Jr. has three tackles for losses. Transfer DL Luiji Vilain (Michigan) paces the D with 2.5 sacks. DBs Traveon Redd and Caelen Carson each have two INTs.

Wake Forest special teams: Nick Sciba is one of the best kickers in the nation and has connected on all four of his field goal tries thus far, with a long of 46 yards. Ja'Sir Taylor had a 99-yard kickoff return TD versus ODU. Taylor Morin is second in the ACC with a 13.4 yard punt return average.

Thoughts and pick: A lot of the good feelings stirred by the two blowout victories in weeks 1 and 2 (albeit over bad teams) were dashed in last week's complete no-show of a defensive performance as the Tar Heels did whatever they wanted to that unit, racking up an eye-popping 699 total yards. While I knew Howell was a major problem, I don't think I envisioned the evisceration of the rush defense, which was gashed for 392 yards. Maybe asking the defense to stop the run and the pass is too much, but it needs to be able to at least slow down one facet of opposing offenses. At least last season, the run defense remained solid even though the pass defense was bad.

Tonight, it feels like the pressure is back on Virginia to not fall to .500 overall and to 0-2 in the ACC. A loss -- especially another terrible defensive outing -- would make it feel like the team would need to scramble just to get to six wins, while a win would sort of stabilize things, and all of a sudden the possibility of a pretty good year is back on the table.

It's no secret that UVa has been much better at home than away in recent seasons. This tweet from this week shows that the Cavaliers have the biggest disparity in the country since 2018 between home and road win percentage:

So I am really hoping that being back in the comfy confines of Scott, even though the crowd won't be where we want it in terms of numbers, will help buoy the team's spirit and get the players back in a good state of mind. The defensive players' heads did not seem to be in the game last week. Their play was bad, and there were also a number of dirty hits. Hopefully they regain their focus in Charlottesville and show some fight (without drawing penalties).

The offense was awesome last week but not perfect. There were missed opportunities, especially in the first and third quarters, and two turnovers. The Cavaliers could've put up 50 points. That said, it still did pile up 577 yards and nearly 40 points, so it's tough to be too mad at the offense. When you score 39 points, you should win. Period. It shouldn't require offensive perfection.

Almost all of that yardage came from a single-game school record 554 yards passing from Armstrong. Perhaps Virginia needs to at least try to run the ball more to control the clock and keep its defense off the field? Me and a bunch of other people like the way Mike Hollins runs the ball. Let's give him a few more attempts. (RB Wayne Taulapapa was also one of the players that exited the game.)

Wake is a good program. It is constantly overlooked but consistent. Clawson is a good coach, someone I wanted at UVa at one point in his career. Funny that Virginia chose the wrong Richmond coach to lead its program. (Mike London succeeded Clawson at UR and won a national championship with mostly his players.)

It's going to take a strong effort to win tonight. I am banking on a bit more defense (can it be worse?) and another great effort from the offense. In addition to Wake's victories all being over subpar squads, it has also played every game at home. I hope Scott can be a deciding factor.

Virginia 41, Wake Forest 38

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