Georgia Tech at Virginia, 7:30 p.m. Saturday, ACC Network
The Cavaliers go for their fourth straight ACC win tonight for the first time since 2011. And if they can beat Georgia Tech for the fourth consecutive time in Charlottesville, they'll be bowl eligible for the fourth time under Bronco Mendenhall. Lots of fours.
Editor's note: Correction -- Wahoos are now bowl eligible for fifth time under Mendenhall. I said they'd be bowl eligible for a fourth time if they were to win. They were bowl eligible last year at 5-5 (and who wasn't, since even some losing teams played in the wacky COVID postseason), but they decided to not play in one.
The Yellow Jackets are in their third year under Geoff Collins and seem to be slowly making progress. Collins, who has a defensive background, had to do a complete overhaul in changing from former GT coach Paul Johnson's spread-option offensive scheme to a more pro-style attack. It has taken time, and obviously, COVID during his second season was tough to deal with since he was still trying to change numerous schemes and the culture at Tech. The Jackets have had an up-and-down year, but they'll come to Charlottesville off a victory over Duke two weeks ago and a bye week. So they got some extra preparation time for the 'Hoos. Let's look at more details for this matchup:
Georgia Tech’s record: 3-3 (2-2 ACC)
Wins: Kennesaw State (home blowout), North Carolina (Mercedes-Benz Stadium; Georgia Tech pulled away in the third quarter and again early in the fourth to win 45-22), Duke (close on the road)
Losses: Northern Illinois (close at home), Clemson (close on the road), Pittsburgh (blowout at home)
Coach: Geoff Collins (third year, 9-19, 24-29 career)
Series record: Georgia Tech leads, 21-20-1
Last meeting: Nov. 9, 2019; Virginia won, 33-28 Streak: One for UVa
Line: Virginia by 6.5 (as of Friday afternoon)
Over/under: 64
Georgia Tech offense: The Yellow Jackets are nothing if consistent. They rank 10th in scoring in the ACC at 28.5 points per game. They also rank 10th in terms of total offense per game and ninth in both passing and rushing yardage per game. QB Jeff Sims got hurt in the opener against Northern Illinois but returned when he came off the bench against North Carolina, sparking the Yellow Jackets to their biggest victory of the season. Sims, a second-year starter, has completed 62.5% of his passes for 791 yards, six touchdowns, and four interceptions. He’s a dynamic rusher as well, having recorded 255 yards (6.7 yards per carry) and four scores on the ground. He’s been sacked five times in four games. Like against Louisville and Malik Cunningham, Virginia defensive coordinator Nick Howell has likely drawn up a plan to try to make sure Sims doesn’t beat the ‘Hoos with his feet. Jahmyr Gibbs leads the Jackets with 279 rushing yards, but he’s averaging only 3.6 yards a carry. He has one TD. Jordan Mason has 180 yards on 4 ypc. Dontae Smith has been Tech’s most dynamic back, taking just 34attempts and turning them into 234 yards (6.9 ypc) and three scores. Malachi Carter leads the receiving corps with 23 catches for 378 yards and a TD. Kyric McGowan has posted 19 receptions for 283 yards and a TD. Gibbs is an effective pass-catcher out of the backfield, with 18 receptions for 301 yards and a TD.
Georgia Tech defense: The Yellow Jackets’ defense ranks as slightly better than their offense: ninth in points allowed per game, eighth in total D, eighth versus the rush, and ninth against the pass. Linebacker Quez Jackson leads this unit with 61 tackles (three for losses) and the ACC with 10.4 stops per game. LB Charlie Thomas and DL Jared Ivey pace the Jackets with 3.5 tackles for losses each. Thomas leads the team with 2.5 sacks, and DLs Jordan Domineck and Kyle Kennard have two each. Tech has 12 sacks, which ranks 11th in the league. It has three interceptions, tied for last. Thomas has two of those, and safety Juanyeh Thomas (no relation) has the other one. The Jackets have a turnover margin of plus-2 (46th nationally) thanks to six recovered fumbles.
Georgia Tech special teams: Brent Cimaglia has made 7 of his 10 field goals, perfect until 40 yards and then 0 for 3 beyond that distance. David Shanahan boots punts an average of 44 yards, tied for seventh in the ACC. Gibbs ranks third in the conference with a 23.7-yard kick return average.
Thoughts and pick: Just a month ago, Virginia was coming off back-to-back 20-point losses. Now, it is trying to do something it hasn't done in 10 years -- win four straight ACC games, a feat it didn't even accomplish in 2019. If the Wahoos can do so, they'll set themselves up nicely for the stretch run of the season. They'll already be bowl eligible and could have a shot to draw even with Pittsburgh in the Coastal race when they face it in November IF someone can knock off the Panthers. Pittsburgh faces Clemson today, and Clemson is clearly not the same Clemson, but still, this is as good a chance as any for Pitt to take its first conference loss. This is the ACC after all. Pitt needs to get in on the chaos.
But Virginia needs to take care of Georgia Tech first, and I don't think we should read too much into the beatdown of Duke. As was noted, the 'Hoos just have the Blue Devils' number right now. Well, Georgia Tech and Virginia have played a number of close games recently, so I think that should be the starting point for today's matchup -- be ready for a battle. They did not face each other last season, but Virginia won 33-28 in 2019, Georgia Tech won 30-27 in overtime in 2018, and Virginia won 40-36 in 2017.
Unlike UVa, Tech had to squeak by Duke two weeks ago. But that's not what Mendenhall will focus on when getting his team ready. It will be the fact that the Jackets soundly defeated North Carolina and came very close to knocking off Clemson. Both of those results should get the players' attention.
The defense needs to be ready for the mobility of Sims. It did a good job of containing Louisville's Cunningham, so I am hopeful it will figure out how to contain another scrambling QB. I think I am more worried about his running ability than his passing ability. But our secondary has made many QBs look like stars. Hopefully the defense can force some turnovers as well, as it did last week versus Duke. That was a problem all season, but maybe facing the Blue Devils helped flip that switch, and the unit will go hunt the ball better now.
This should be a fun game. Not only recently, but throughout this series' history, these teams have played plenty of classics. Collins is trying to build Tech back up, and this would be a big win for him as the Jackets seek to become bowl eligible. And word is that ticket sales have picked up a bit for this game, so hopefully the Saturday night crowd will rock Scott Stadium a bit more than has been happening this season -- this is the first Saturday night ACC game in Charlottesville this year. If you recall, the Wake Forest contest was on a Friday night. I think the Jackets will do everything they can to keep it close, and their bye week to rest and prepare does make me increase the chance of an upset, but I think UVa will pull away in the end.
Virginia 34, Georgia Tech 24
Season picks record: 3-4
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