Virginia looks for second straight road victory at Louisville

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Virginia at Louisville, 3 p.m. Saturday, ACC Network

More than a week after picking up a much-needed win away from Scott Stadium, the Cavaliers again gear up for a road game when they head to Louisville to take on a Cardinals team trying to reassert itself in the ACC after a down 2020 season.

Last week was a big game for the 'Hoos (3-2, 1-2 ACC), and this one is, too. If Virginia wins, it will be 4-2 and have two winnable games at home coming up versus Duke and Georgia Tech. If Virginia loses to fall to 3-3, the road to six victories looks tougher. Louisville is in a similar position. Coach Scott Satterfield did an admirable job of turning the Cardinals around in his first season in 2019, as they made a six-win improvement to 8-5 from 2-10 in 2018. But last year, Louisville went 4-7, and so some people are wondering where the program really is headed under Satterfield's direction. With games left against tough to somewhat-tough-looking Boston College, N.C. State, Clemson, and Kentucky squads, Louisville needs this home victory over Virginia to head into the second half of the season with its own momentum. Let's take a look at the matchup in more detail as UVa goes for back-to-back road wins for the first time since 2017 (Boise State and North Carolina, though a home game with Duke was sandwiched in between):

Louisville’s record: 3-2 (1-1 ACC)
Wins: Eastern Kentucky (blowout at home), UCF (close at home), and Florida State (comfortable road win)
Losses: Ole Miss in Atlanta (blowout), at Wake Forest (close)
Coach: Scott Satterfield (third year, 15-14, 66-38 career)
Series record: Louisville leads, 5-4
Last meeting: Nov. 14, 2020; UVa won, 31-17 Streak: One for UVa
Line: Louisville by 2.5 (as of Tuesday afternoon)
Over/under: 69.5

Louisville offense: Even though Virginia’s defense has gotten torched at times, it has faced its share of high-powered offenses. North Carolina, Wake Forest, and Miami are all in the top half of the ACC in terms of yards and points per game (Miami being only slightly off the mark in points, tied for No. 8 with Syracuse at 30.4 ppg, 1.8 ppg behind N.C. State). Louisville is no exception. Like N.C. State, the Cardinals are scoring 32.2 ppg. In terms of yards, Louisville is recording 442 per game (No. 7). Malik Cunningham, in his third year starting, makes things go at quarterback. He’s had a really nice first half of the season. Cunningham has completed 63.8% of his passes for 1,307 yards, seven TDs, and two INTs. He’s rushed for 309 yards (4.4 yards per carry) and an incredible 10 touchdowns. He’s had two rushing TDs in each of the Cards’ five games. He’s been sacked seven times. RB Jalen Mitchell is slightly ahead of Cunningham in terms of rushing yards (331 vs. 309) but has just one TD. Tight end Marshon Ford leads the Cardinals with 23 catches for 241 yards and one TD. Wideout Jordan Watkins has 18 receptions for 213 yards and a TD.

Louisville defense: The Cardinals are struggling on this side of the ball, giving up 434.8 yards per game (last in the ACC) and 28.2 points per game (12th), both marks worse than Virginia. Linebackers C.J. Avery and Jack Fagot pace the Cardinals with 36 and 33 tackles, respectively. Fagot has four tackles for losses. LB Yasir Abudullah leads the unit with six TFLs and four sacks. As a whole, the D has 14 sacks (fifth in league). Defensive back and Richmond-area native Kei’Trel has three picks, but it’s worth noting two came against FCS foe Eastern Kentucky. DB Jaylin Alderman had a pick-6 in the final minute to beat UCF. Louisville has recovered just one fumble. The Cardinals are even in turnover margin, a big improvement over last season when they finished minus-12, one of the worst marks in the country.

Louisville special teams: After being named honorable mention all-ACC last season, kicker James Turner is looking good again, having made 4 of his 5 field goals, with a long of 46 yards, only missing one beyond 50 yards. Punter Mark Vassett is 10th in the conference in yards per punt. Hassan Hall is third in the ACC at kickoff return average (22.8 yards). Braden Smith is fourth in punt return average (12 yards).

Thoughts and pick: There’s no doubt that Virginia made strides on defense last week in winning at Miami. There’s also no doubt it got a little lucky. Both things can be true. UVa did a nice job of making several good plays early on offense and defense to build a nice margin. The Cavaliers did not do a solid job of closing out the game, though you could argue it doesn’t become a nail-biter if the referees had correctly called the targeting on Miami’s hit on Dontayvion Wicks on Virginia’s final drive, giving the offense a first down. From there, perhaps the ‘Hoos run out the clock, kick another field goal, or even score a TD to put it away. But sports can be funny sometimes. Think about this: Suppose the targeting is called, and the drive stays alive for the Cavaliers. Suppose they go down and kick a field goal to make it 33-28. Provided there would be enough time, Miami would then have to use its hurry-up offense to score a touchdown on the final drive to win. It didn’t look like the Cavaliers were going to stop the Hurricanes from reaching the end zone on that final drive – but the ‘Canes stopped themselves, instead opting to set up the field goal, which is all they needed to win. We all know how that turned out. But had UVa kicked a hypothetical field goal to go up 5, Miami would’ve had to have been more aggressive. In that situation, maybe the ‘Canes score the TD and win. So the targeting not being called could’ve benefited Virginia, allowing Miami to settle for what it thought was going to be an easy field goal.

Virginia’s D did not fare well against UNC’s Sam Howell and Wake Forest’s Sam Hartman. Much has been made of Virginia faltering against starting QBs. Though D’Eriq King was out for Miami, I would say it did not roll out a nobody at QB. This is Tyler Van Dyke’s second year in the program, and he was a four-star recruit that had played the week before. It took him a while to get going – and Virginia helped him look better in the second half -- but he has some talent. But it’s true that Virginia’s defense will see the level of QB play rise this week with Louisville, which features the seasoned and explosive Cunningham at QB. He’s more on par with Howell and Hartman than with Van Dyke.
The main issue Louisville had last season was turnovers, and the Cardinals have gotten that under control this year. Cunningham has two INTs so far, more on the pace of the five he had in 2019 when Louisville won eight games rather than the 12 he threw in 2020 when the Cards won four.

I want to think Virginia has turned the corner on defense, but I just don’t see that unit performing too well against Cunningham and the Cardinals. Louisville’s offense is a step or two above Miami’s. Virginia is going to have to rely on its offense to win.

Last week, Louisville put up a good fight on the road at Wake Forest, losing 37-34, but performing much better against the Demon Deacons than Virginia did. The Cardinals haven’t played at home since Sept. 17 against UCF, when they won on a pick-6 by Alderman I mentioned above.
With the lack of a recent home game and nice weather in the forecast for a midafternoon matchup, the Louisville crowd should be fairly sizable and raucous – more of a factor than at Miami. Given Virginia’s struggles on the road and razor-thin margin for error in the Miami road victory, I just can’t see the Wahoos capturing a win away from home for a second consecutive week. A loss to fall to 3-3 would set up a tough second half of the season in which the ‘Hoos would probably need to earn at least one upset to become bowl eligible.

Louisville 42, Virginia 38

Season picks record: 2-3

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