Virginia at No. 18 Pittsburgh, 3:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPN2
The Cavaliers, banged up and losers of two in a row, hit the road for an afternoon game against Coastal Division-leading Pittsburgh today.
Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong’s status is once again up in the air. But for as much doubt as surrounds the QB situation, and as bad as UVa looked on defense at BYU and on offense versus Notre Dame, the fact remains that if Virginia can somehow find a way to squeak by the Panthers, all it will need to do to capture the Coastal is defeat Virginia Tech at Scott Stadium the Saturday after Thanksgiving.
That will be easier said than done, even if Armstrong plays. Pitt has only lost two games this year by a combined six points, both at home: a bizarre loss to MAC team Western Michigan and Miami. The Panthers boast a potent offense and a solid defense. Here are more details on the matchup that will decide the frontrunner in the division:
Pittsburgh’s record: 8-2 (5-1 ACC)
Wins: home vs. Massachusetts (blowout), at Tennessee (close), home vs. New Hampshire (blowout), at Georgia Tech (blowout), at Virginia Tech (blowout), home vs. Clemson (comfortable), at Duke (blowout), home vs. North Carolina (up 17-0 but UNC rallies to tie, Pitt wins in OT)
Losses: home vs. Western Michigan (close), home vs. Miami (close)
Series record: Pittsburgh leads, 8-4
Last meeting: Aug. 31, 2019; Virginia won, 30-14 Streak: One for UVa
Line: Pittsburgh by 14.5 (as of Friday afternoon)
Over/under: 66
Pittsburgh offense: The Panthers rank second in the ACC in scoring (43.5 points per game), first in total offense, 10th in rushing offense, and second in passing offense. Kenny Pickett is having by far his best season in his fifth year as a collegiate QB, finally taking that next step that has really elevated the Pitt offense and put the team on the cusp of a Coastal Division title. Pickett has completed 67.5% of his passes for 3,517 yards, 32 touchdowns, and four interceptions. He’s rushed for 231 yards and four scores. He’s been sacked 22 times, getting about middle-of-the-road protection from his offensive line. Israel Abanikanda (561 yards, 5.3 yards per carry, five TDs) and Vincent Davis (332 yards, 3.5 ypc, four TDs) lead the team in rushing. Jordan Addison has been one of the best wideouts in the ACC, with 60 receptions (17.8 ypc) for 1,070 yards and 11 TDs. His 11 TDs are tied with Wake Forest’s A.T. Perry for the conference lead. Pitt has a collection of five pass-catchers that have at least 20 receptions each, though one of them, veteran Taysir Mack, could be done for the year after suffering an injury against Miami and not playing in the Panthers’ game last week versus UNC.
Pittsburgh defense: The Panthers rank fifth in the ACC in points given up per game (22.7), fifth in total defense, second in rushing defense, and eighth against the pass. LB Sirvocea Dennis and DB Brandon Hill lead the unit with 65 tackles each. Dennis has seven tackles for losses, two sacks, one INT, and a blocked kick. DL Habakkuk Baldonado leads the Panthers with 10.5 TFLs and eight sacks. Pitt tops the ACC with 36 sacks and is tied for third nationally with 3.6 per game. That’s not great since Virginia backup QB Jay Woolfork was sacked nine times by Notre Dame last weekend, and if Armstrong plays, he will have sore ribs. John Petrishen paces Pitt with three INTs. The Panthers are tied for 36th nationally with a plus-4 turnover margin, Virginia’s third straight opponent that is very solid in that category.
Pittsburgh special teams: Sam Scarton has made 13 of his 16 field goal attempts with a long of 47 yards. Addison has only returned five punts, but his 15.4 yards-per-return average would top the ACC. Jaylon Barden has nine returns and a 10-yards-per-return average, third best in the league. Punter Kirk Christodoulou ranks 13th in the conference in average yards per punt (41.6).
Thoughts and pick: If Virginia can beat Pittsburgh, it will play rival Virginia Tech with a chance to win the Coastal for the second straight time (since there were no divisions in 2020). But for the second consecutive week, we are left wondering if Armstrong will be healthy enough to play. He looked to be in some pain as he threw lightly before the Notre Dame game. It really makes me wonder if he will be ready for Pitt and even Virginia Tech.
Perhaps Bronco Mendenhall didn’t want to say that Armstrong would be out for the year because there’s always a chance he could come back for, say, a bowl game a few weeks after the season when the pain has subsided. Technically, that’s not out for the season, though that would include the most important games. Also, since this is maybe a pain tolerance thing (I should note this does it make more difficult for Armstrong to throw, which is his main task, so it isn’t just pain tolerance; I don’t want it to sound like I am calling Armstrong’s toughness into question – I’m not), the team can hold out hope it will heal enough for Armstrong to play, but it may also know he could be out for a while. If Armstrong had torn his ACL or something like that, then I think Mendenhall would’ve made an announcement saying his season was done. But since it’s a rib injury, and technically speaking Armstrong could be back, Mendenhall held off.
So I wouldn’t necessarily be surprised if Armstrong plays, but I do expect it’ll be Woolfork. Some throws got away from him, but he did a few nice things against the Fighting Irish despite the ‘Hoos only putting up 3 points. That was obviously a tough spot for a true freshman to get thrown into against one of the nation’s best teams. Woolfork’s final pass to Keytaon Thompson was a bit high but went off Thompson's hands in the end zone and was picked. Woolfork put together a couple of other drives that could’ve resulted in touchdowns or field goals, and one field goal was missed at the beginning of the second half. A 28-10, 28-17, or 28-13 score would have sounded better than 28-3, and perhaps we would have a bit more of an optimistic feeling heading to Heinz Field.
Also on the offensive side of the ball, RB Wayne Taulapapa didn’t play against the Irish, and it seems like he may not be ready for Pitt either because he has suffered two concussions this year, and WR Billy Kemp IV got banged up against Notre Dame but should be good to go.
Lost a little bit in the Armstrong story is Virginia’s defense. It gave up 21 first-half points to the Irish but only 7 in the second half. It gave up 423 yards. It also forced two turnovers, though the fumble was pretty much a mistake by the Irish, and they were down in the red zone. The other turnover came on an interception by Anthony Johnson. Maybe Notre Dame let its foot off the gas pedal a bit. Still, after giving up 734 points and 66 points to BYU, it was an encouraging performance. Pitt’s offense has been better than Notre Dame’s, though, so it’ll take a better effort from the D to hold the Panthers to 28 points, and the defense's job becomes even tougher if Armstrong isn’t on the field to guide the offense.
Ultimately, I expect a game performance from the Cavaliers, but I do think they will come up short, whether it is Armstrong under center or Woolfork. I think Woolfork played OK enough versus the Irish to expect him to take some steps against the Panthers, but he needs better protection, and he needs to get rid of the ball more quickly. Notre Dame racked up nine sacks, and Pitt is even better at getting to quarterbacks. And if Armstrong does play, he won’t be at full strength, so I don’t think he will be able to lift the ‘Hoos in a full-blown shootout. The defense will still have to come to play.
Pittsburgh 41, Virginia 27 (with Armstrong)
Pittsburgh 38, Virginia 14 (without Armstrong)
Picks record: 6-4
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