We are entering Week 10 of the NFL season and teams have played either eight or nine games. Time to take a look at some trends and patterns, assess what's happened, and try to predict what's going to happen from here out.
The NFC East started out hot but has since come down to Earth. A few weeks ago, Dallas was 5-1, Philadelphia was 4-1, and the Giants were 3-2, winners of three straight. Now, the Eagles are 6-2 but have Mark Sanchez at cornerback. Nick Foles broke his collarbone this past week against Houston and is going to be out six to eight weeks, meaning he could be back for the Eagles' Dec. 20 game at Washington or possibly their home game against the Cowboys the week before. And of course, it could be even after the Redskins game if it is closer to eight weeks or more. The Cowboys have now lost two straight and are 6-3 and have a banged up starting quarterback in Tony Romo. The Giants are 3-5, losers of three straight games and look more like the team that started this season 0-2. I think it is still possible for the NFC East to get two teams in the playoffs, but it is looking less likely than a couple weeks ago when Philly and Dallas were looking like the best teams in the conference with the Giants perhaps not far behind. Arizona has had something to do with that, going 7-1, the current best record in the NFC.
Dallas and Philadelphia might still both make the playoffs because the rest of the conference isn't as good as last season. The Seahawks are down at 5-3. The 49ers and Saints are 4-4. Carolina is 3-5. The Falcons are 2-6. The Bears are 3-5. The Packers are 5-3, but have problems on defense, just got blasted by the Saints, and also barely squeaked by the Dolphins. I would venture to say all of those teams were better at this point last season. Meanwhile, the Eagles and Cowboys are both better than at this point last year.
In the NFC West, especially, lots of inter-division games still need to be played, meaning those teams will beat up on each other. Arizona still has to face pesky St. Louis twice, Seattle twice, and the 49ers one more time, whom it beat at home in Week 3. Arizona might win the division, but Seattle will certainly have something to say about that. The Seahawks and 49ers have to play each other twice still. Attrition in the NFC West could help out the Eagles and Cowboys if they can win games when they don't play each other.
In the NFC South, I doubt either the Panthers or Saints can get a wild card. It will come to whoever wins the division. My guess is New Orleans right now, who finally won a road game, at the Panthers no less, last Thursday. The Saints could end the year on a hot streak and it would not surprise me, but I can't see the Panthers getting to 10-6, which could be what they would need to get to to make the playoffs as a wild card.
The Lions lead the NFC North at 6-2, but have had some close calls and will surely be challenged by the Packers for the division title. The Lions have won their past two games -- over New Orleans and Atlanta -- by a combined two points. You can't get much closer to being 4-4 than that. Detroit already has a nice win over the Packers at home, but must visit Green Bay at the end of the year. Detroit has losses to Buffalo and Carolina. Its other wins are over the Giants, Jets, and Vikings. The picture I'm trying to paint is I don't think the Lions are as good as their record. But, they do get Calvin Johnson back at wideout this weekend vs. the Dolphins, a surprising team in their own right. The Lions also draw the Cardinals and Patriots in coming weeks and finish the season on th road at the Bears and, as I mentioned before, the Packers.
Last year, the NFC was better than the AFC but it looks like the opposite is true this year. I showed you the mediocre records of some of the NFC teams. In the AFC, though, the story is different. The Dolphins and Bills are 5-3. All of the AFC North teams have at least five wins. The Chargers have five wins. The Colts are 6-3 and the Chiefs are 5-3.
Can the Dolphins or Bills win the AFC East? Miami has gotten its act together ever since clobbering the Raiders in London during Week 4. Since then, the Dolphins' only blemish is a close, three-point home loss to the Packers. The Dolphins have beaten the Bears and Jaguars since then, and, most impressively, shut out the Chargers last week in a dominating performance. New England is 7-2, but Miami beat the Pats in Week 1. The two tangle in Foxboro on Dec. 14. Buffalo beat Miami at home in Week 2 and lost to the Patriots at home in Week 6. The Bills go to Miami next Thursday and go to New England for their last game of the regular season.
The presumed demise of the Patriots and Steelers jumped the gun a little bit. New England has won five in a row and Pittsburgh has won three in a row. Tight end Rob Gronkowski has gotten healthy and more effective, allowing the Patriots to get on track on offense and Tom Brady has been Tom Brady. They put a statement on their little surge this past week by drubbing Peyton Manning and the Broncos at home. The Steelers were looking even worse off than the Patriots a few weeks ago. But then, struggling in the first half against the Texans, they got some miraculous turnovers, sparking them to a win. They haven't looked back since. The past two weeks, QB Ben Roethlisberger has six TD passes each against the colts and Ravens. Twelve TDs. In two weeks!
The AFC North is brutal. The Steelers have surged in recent weeks, the Ravens were 5-2 at one point and are still good at 5-4, the Bengals are in the hunt for the division title again, but the real surprise is the 6-3 Browns, who are led by former UVa player Mike Pettine (1980s WR), who is their coach. Cleveland got a lot of attention in the offseason for drafting QB Johnny Manziel, but the Browns have been getting pretty good production out of Brian Hoyer at the position.
Roethlisberger, Brady, and Manning have been great, but Andrew Luck might be having the best year so far at QB in the league. The third-year signal caller out of Stanford has completed 63.6 percent of his passes for 3,085 yards, 26 TDs, and nine picks. He is on pace to break Manning's single-season yards mark set last season. The Colts lead the AFC South comfortably with the Texans (4-5), Titans (2-6), and Jaguars (1-8) lagging behind.
The NFC East started out hot but has since come down to Earth. A few weeks ago, Dallas was 5-1, Philadelphia was 4-1, and the Giants were 3-2, winners of three straight. Now, the Eagles are 6-2 but have Mark Sanchez at cornerback. Nick Foles broke his collarbone this past week against Houston and is going to be out six to eight weeks, meaning he could be back for the Eagles' Dec. 20 game at Washington or possibly their home game against the Cowboys the week before. And of course, it could be even after the Redskins game if it is closer to eight weeks or more. The Cowboys have now lost two straight and are 6-3 and have a banged up starting quarterback in Tony Romo. The Giants are 3-5, losers of three straight games and look more like the team that started this season 0-2. I think it is still possible for the NFC East to get two teams in the playoffs, but it is looking less likely than a couple weeks ago when Philly and Dallas were looking like the best teams in the conference with the Giants perhaps not far behind. Arizona has had something to do with that, going 7-1, the current best record in the NFC.
Dallas and Philadelphia might still both make the playoffs because the rest of the conference isn't as good as last season. The Seahawks are down at 5-3. The 49ers and Saints are 4-4. Carolina is 3-5. The Falcons are 2-6. The Bears are 3-5. The Packers are 5-3, but have problems on defense, just got blasted by the Saints, and also barely squeaked by the Dolphins. I would venture to say all of those teams were better at this point last season. Meanwhile, the Eagles and Cowboys are both better than at this point last year.
In the NFC West, especially, lots of inter-division games still need to be played, meaning those teams will beat up on each other. Arizona still has to face pesky St. Louis twice, Seattle twice, and the 49ers one more time, whom it beat at home in Week 3. Arizona might win the division, but Seattle will certainly have something to say about that. The Seahawks and 49ers have to play each other twice still. Attrition in the NFC West could help out the Eagles and Cowboys if they can win games when they don't play each other.
In the NFC South, I doubt either the Panthers or Saints can get a wild card. It will come to whoever wins the division. My guess is New Orleans right now, who finally won a road game, at the Panthers no less, last Thursday. The Saints could end the year on a hot streak and it would not surprise me, but I can't see the Panthers getting to 10-6, which could be what they would need to get to to make the playoffs as a wild card.
The Lions lead the NFC North at 6-2, but have had some close calls and will surely be challenged by the Packers for the division title. The Lions have won their past two games -- over New Orleans and Atlanta -- by a combined two points. You can't get much closer to being 4-4 than that. Detroit already has a nice win over the Packers at home, but must visit Green Bay at the end of the year. Detroit has losses to Buffalo and Carolina. Its other wins are over the Giants, Jets, and Vikings. The picture I'm trying to paint is I don't think the Lions are as good as their record. But, they do get Calvin Johnson back at wideout this weekend vs. the Dolphins, a surprising team in their own right. The Lions also draw the Cardinals and Patriots in coming weeks and finish the season on th road at the Bears and, as I mentioned before, the Packers.
Last year, the NFC was better than the AFC but it looks like the opposite is true this year. I showed you the mediocre records of some of the NFC teams. In the AFC, though, the story is different. The Dolphins and Bills are 5-3. All of the AFC North teams have at least five wins. The Chargers have five wins. The Colts are 6-3 and the Chiefs are 5-3.
Can the Dolphins or Bills win the AFC East? Miami has gotten its act together ever since clobbering the Raiders in London during Week 4. Since then, the Dolphins' only blemish is a close, three-point home loss to the Packers. The Dolphins have beaten the Bears and Jaguars since then, and, most impressively, shut out the Chargers last week in a dominating performance. New England is 7-2, but Miami beat the Pats in Week 1. The two tangle in Foxboro on Dec. 14. Buffalo beat Miami at home in Week 2 and lost to the Patriots at home in Week 6. The Bills go to Miami next Thursday and go to New England for their last game of the regular season.
The presumed demise of the Patriots and Steelers jumped the gun a little bit. New England has won five in a row and Pittsburgh has won three in a row. Tight end Rob Gronkowski has gotten healthy and more effective, allowing the Patriots to get on track on offense and Tom Brady has been Tom Brady. They put a statement on their little surge this past week by drubbing Peyton Manning and the Broncos at home. The Steelers were looking even worse off than the Patriots a few weeks ago. But then, struggling in the first half against the Texans, they got some miraculous turnovers, sparking them to a win. They haven't looked back since. The past two weeks, QB Ben Roethlisberger has six TD passes each against the colts and Ravens. Twelve TDs. In two weeks!
The AFC North is brutal. The Steelers have surged in recent weeks, the Ravens were 5-2 at one point and are still good at 5-4, the Bengals are in the hunt for the division title again, but the real surprise is the 6-3 Browns, who are led by former UVa player Mike Pettine (1980s WR), who is their coach. Cleveland got a lot of attention in the offseason for drafting QB Johnny Manziel, but the Browns have been getting pretty good production out of Brian Hoyer at the position.
Roethlisberger, Brady, and Manning have been great, but Andrew Luck might be having the best year so far at QB in the league. The third-year signal caller out of Stanford has completed 63.6 percent of his passes for 3,085 yards, 26 TDs, and nine picks. He is on pace to break Manning's single-season yards mark set last season. The Colts lead the AFC South comfortably with the Texans (4-5), Titans (2-6), and Jaguars (1-8) lagging behind.
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