Bowls: 1-4 Season: 116-51
Hey, got my first pick right finally when Syracuse topped West Virginia, 34-18, in the Camping World Bowl. In his third year, after four wins in each of his first two seasons, coach Dino Babers' squad won 10 games. Not bad. Now, I'm moving on to Saturday's games, and we find Virginia against South Carolina, and also, oh, the playoffs.
So off we go.
College Football Playoff semifinals
Cotton Bowl in Arlington
No. 3 Notre Dame (12-0) vs. No. 2 Clemson (13-0), 4 p.m. ESPN
The lines for the playoff games are enormous. They have to be some of the biggest of the bowl games. The Tigers are favored by 13 points over the Fighting Irish, who haven't played since Nov. 24 when they struggled to a 24-17 win over USC, which finished 5-7. Notre Dame was impressive at times. It thumped Syracuse, Virginia Tech on the road, and Stanford. And its 24-17 win over Michigan in the season opener ended up being one of the season's better victories. The Irish's offense took off after Ian Book took over at QB from Brandon Wimbush. Book completed 70.4 percent of his passes for 19 TDs and just six INTs. With Wimbush, Notre Dame struggled early in the year against Ball State and Vanderbilt, but cruised with Book thereafter, except for a tough game vs. Pitt. Clemson, meanwhile, struggled twice: at Texas A&M, a 28-26 win, and then surprisingly at home against Syracuse, a 27-23 victory. That was before we knew that the Orange was capable of winning 10 games, though. Since that point, however, Clemson has dominated, winning no game by fewer than 21 points. I think Notre Dame is a very good team, but Clemson is excellent. The Tigers' offense has been rolling ever since freshman Trevor Lawrence was inserted at QB, and the defense is very nasty, and I think it will be even with defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence suspended because of a failed drug test.
Clemson 34, Notre Dame 23
Orange Bowl in Miami
No. 4 Oklahoma (12-1) vs. No. 1 Alabama (13-0), 8 p.m. ESPN
The Crimson Tide is a 14-point favorite over the Sooners, and probably rightly so. While Oklahoma was getting in shootouts against West Virginia, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech, and losing to Texas, 'Bama was crushing everything in its path. It didn't get challenged until the SEC title game when it found itself down 28-14 to Georgia in the third quarter. But the Tide responded and beat the Bulldogs, 35-28, late in the fourth. The Sooners have offensive firepower with QB Kyler Murray (70.9 percent, 4,053 yards, 40 TDs, just seven picks, plus 892 rushing yards and 11 scores), the Heisman winner, RB Kennedy Brooks (9 ypc, 12 TDs), and receivers Marquise Brown (75 catches, 10 scores) and CeeDee Lamb (57 receptions, 10 scores). But the defense has been a major issue, and Alabama has really turned in a great offensive performance -- led by QB Tua Tagovailoa (67.7 percent, 37 TDs, just four picks), RBs Damien Harris (6.1 ypc, seven scores) and Najee Harris (6.7 ypc, four TDs), and WR Jerry Jeudy (59 catches, 12 TDs) -- to go along with its normally stout defense. But no one believed in Oklahoma last season, and it lasted until overtime before losing to Georgia in the semifinal. But ultimately, even if Oklahoma hangs around, I think Alabama will pull away late.
Alabama 45, Oklahoma 27
Belk Bowl in Charlotte
South Carolina (7-5) vs. Virginia (7-5), Noon ESPN
Last time out, both of these teams lost to their bitter rivals (I'm not counting the Akron game haha). The Wahoos of course continued to be perplexed by Virginia Tech, losing 34-31 in overtime. Perhaps just as frustrating, the Gamecocks played well on offense but lost to Clemson, 56-35. It's got to be tough knowing you can play a great game and still be expected to lose, but that's what it is like facing Clemson these days. That was the most points scored on the Tigers all season. South Carolina did face Akron and win, 28-3, the week after to play a 12th game (after its contest vs. Marshall was hurricaned-out), but for all intents and purposes, the Tigers were the Gamecocks' last test.
South Carolina coach Will Muschamp is known for defense, but it is the Gamecocks' offense that has been the team's strong suit in 2018. QB Jake Bentley has put up good numbers: 63.9 percent, 2,953 yards, 27 TDs, 12 INTs. For reference, Bryce Perkins finished the regular season at 63.8 percent, 2,472 yards, 22 TDs, and nine picks for UVa. Bentley, unlike Perkins, is not a big-time runner. Top Gamecocks running back Rico Dowdle sits at 5.4 ypc and four TDs. Their top receiver, Deebo Samuel, is sitting out the game to prepare for the NFL draft, but Brian Edwards is the best among
other solid options with 52 catches for 809 yards and seven scores. The line's top guard, Zack Bailey, is out as well with a broken leg.
The Gamecocks' defense ranks tied for 65th in points given up per game (27.2), 93rd in rushing defense, and 66th in passing defense. Defensive lineman Javon Kinlaw leads the unit with 4.5 sacks -- South Carolina totaled 24, which is tied for 75th -- and Rashad Fenton has three interceptions. The Gamecocks' turnover margin is minus-4, tied for 91st.
That is to say, Virginia can move the ball and score on South Carolina. The problem is trusting the 'Hoos to be consistent in execution and play calling. The Virginia Tech game demonstrated that UVa is capable of looking like both a 3-9 team and a 9-3 squad.
South Carolina went 7-5 against the SEC, generally regarded as a better conference than the ACC. In addition to Akron, the Gamecocks picked up victories over Coastal Carolina, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Chattanooga, with the wins over the Tigers, Vols, and Rebels being very close games. Only Missouri among that group went to a bowl. In addition to Clemson, South Carolina lost to Georgia (blowout), Kentucky (two TDs), Texas A&M (close), and Florida (close). Before you shudder, recall how close UVa's losses were, especially the last two against the Techs.
Some bettors out there must be believing in Virginia, at least to cover. The line opened with South Carolina as a 5.5-point favorite, I think, went up to 6.5, but was down to 4 as of late Friday night. The frustrating thing is both knowing UVa is capable of winning this game but not feeling confident the potential will be fulfilled. I think a stumble early or at some point will be too much to overcome. Inconsistency on offense or a bad turnover or two will probably be too much to overcome against an SEC team that boasts a very solid offense.
South Carolina 30, Virginia 24
Hey, got my first pick right finally when Syracuse topped West Virginia, 34-18, in the Camping World Bowl. In his third year, after four wins in each of his first two seasons, coach Dino Babers' squad won 10 games. Not bad. Now, I'm moving on to Saturday's games, and we find Virginia against South Carolina, and also, oh, the playoffs.
So off we go.
College Football Playoff semifinals
Cotton Bowl in Arlington
No. 3 Notre Dame (12-0) vs. No. 2 Clemson (13-0), 4 p.m. ESPN
The lines for the playoff games are enormous. They have to be some of the biggest of the bowl games. The Tigers are favored by 13 points over the Fighting Irish, who haven't played since Nov. 24 when they struggled to a 24-17 win over USC, which finished 5-7. Notre Dame was impressive at times. It thumped Syracuse, Virginia Tech on the road, and Stanford. And its 24-17 win over Michigan in the season opener ended up being one of the season's better victories. The Irish's offense took off after Ian Book took over at QB from Brandon Wimbush. Book completed 70.4 percent of his passes for 19 TDs and just six INTs. With Wimbush, Notre Dame struggled early in the year against Ball State and Vanderbilt, but cruised with Book thereafter, except for a tough game vs. Pitt. Clemson, meanwhile, struggled twice: at Texas A&M, a 28-26 win, and then surprisingly at home against Syracuse, a 27-23 victory. That was before we knew that the Orange was capable of winning 10 games, though. Since that point, however, Clemson has dominated, winning no game by fewer than 21 points. I think Notre Dame is a very good team, but Clemson is excellent. The Tigers' offense has been rolling ever since freshman Trevor Lawrence was inserted at QB, and the defense is very nasty, and I think it will be even with defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence suspended because of a failed drug test.
Clemson 34, Notre Dame 23
Orange Bowl in Miami
No. 4 Oklahoma (12-1) vs. No. 1 Alabama (13-0), 8 p.m. ESPN
The Crimson Tide is a 14-point favorite over the Sooners, and probably rightly so. While Oklahoma was getting in shootouts against West Virginia, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech, and losing to Texas, 'Bama was crushing everything in its path. It didn't get challenged until the SEC title game when it found itself down 28-14 to Georgia in the third quarter. But the Tide responded and beat the Bulldogs, 35-28, late in the fourth. The Sooners have offensive firepower with QB Kyler Murray (70.9 percent, 4,053 yards, 40 TDs, just seven picks, plus 892 rushing yards and 11 scores), the Heisman winner, RB Kennedy Brooks (9 ypc, 12 TDs), and receivers Marquise Brown (75 catches, 10 scores) and CeeDee Lamb (57 receptions, 10 scores). But the defense has been a major issue, and Alabama has really turned in a great offensive performance -- led by QB Tua Tagovailoa (67.7 percent, 37 TDs, just four picks), RBs Damien Harris (6.1 ypc, seven scores) and Najee Harris (6.7 ypc, four TDs), and WR Jerry Jeudy (59 catches, 12 TDs) -- to go along with its normally stout defense. But no one believed in Oklahoma last season, and it lasted until overtime before losing to Georgia in the semifinal. But ultimately, even if Oklahoma hangs around, I think Alabama will pull away late.
Alabama 45, Oklahoma 27
Belk Bowl in Charlotte
South Carolina (7-5) vs. Virginia (7-5), Noon ESPN
Last time out, both of these teams lost to their bitter rivals (I'm not counting the Akron game haha). The Wahoos of course continued to be perplexed by Virginia Tech, losing 34-31 in overtime. Perhaps just as frustrating, the Gamecocks played well on offense but lost to Clemson, 56-35. It's got to be tough knowing you can play a great game and still be expected to lose, but that's what it is like facing Clemson these days. That was the most points scored on the Tigers all season. South Carolina did face Akron and win, 28-3, the week after to play a 12th game (after its contest vs. Marshall was hurricaned-out), but for all intents and purposes, the Tigers were the Gamecocks' last test.
South Carolina coach Will Muschamp is known for defense, but it is the Gamecocks' offense that has been the team's strong suit in 2018. QB Jake Bentley has put up good numbers: 63.9 percent, 2,953 yards, 27 TDs, 12 INTs. For reference, Bryce Perkins finished the regular season at 63.8 percent, 2,472 yards, 22 TDs, and nine picks for UVa. Bentley, unlike Perkins, is not a big-time runner. Top Gamecocks running back Rico Dowdle sits at 5.4 ypc and four TDs. Their top receiver, Deebo Samuel, is sitting out the game to prepare for the NFL draft, but Brian Edwards is the best among
The Gamecocks' defense ranks tied for 65th in points given up per game (27.2), 93rd in rushing defense, and 66th in passing defense. Defensive lineman Javon Kinlaw leads the unit with 4.5 sacks -- South Carolina totaled 24, which is tied for 75th -- and Rashad Fenton has three interceptions. The Gamecocks' turnover margin is minus-4, tied for 91st.
That is to say, Virginia can move the ball and score on South Carolina. The problem is trusting the 'Hoos to be consistent in execution and play calling. The Virginia Tech game demonstrated that UVa is capable of looking like both a 3-9 team and a 9-3 squad.
South Carolina went 7-5 against the SEC, generally regarded as a better conference than the ACC. In addition to Akron, the Gamecocks picked up victories over Coastal Carolina, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Chattanooga, with the wins over the Tigers, Vols, and Rebels being very close games. Only Missouri among that group went to a bowl. In addition to Clemson, South Carolina lost to Georgia (blowout), Kentucky (two TDs), Texas A&M (close), and Florida (close). Before you shudder, recall how close UVa's losses were, especially the last two against the Techs.
Some bettors out there must be believing in Virginia, at least to cover. The line opened with South Carolina as a 5.5-point favorite, I think, went up to 6.5, but was down to 4 as of late Friday night. The frustrating thing is both knowing UVa is capable of winning this game but not feeling confident the potential will be fulfilled. I think a stumble early or at some point will be too much to overcome. Inconsistency on offense or a bad turnover or two will probably be too much to overcome against an SEC team that boasts a very solid offense.
South Carolina 30, Virginia 24
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