Virginia, Auburn set for Final Four bout to decide which school makes its first appearance in title game
No. 1 Virginia (33-3) vs. No. 5 Auburn (30-9),
Minneapolis, 6:09 p.m., CBS
The wait is almost over. UVa's first Final Four game in 35 years tips off in about 24 hours, and it feels like a long time coming for a lot of Wahoos. Even for myself, I'm just 31, and I started paying attention to Virginia basketball in about 1998. The hoops played from that year through about 2013 was largely ... not good. My third year at Virginia was the disastrous 10-win 2008-09 campaign that got Dave Leitao fired. My fourth year was Tony Bennett's first season on Grounds. Even though I saw progression that first season, I don't think I thought this was possible in my wildest dreams, even 11 years later. I would've said you were crazy had you even told me then that Virginia would be a perennial NCAA tournament team, after so many seasons of just wanting to be near the bubble in
March. Not only that, Virginia is a powerhouse now, being on the bubble is a foreign thought, and it
felt like we were just waiting to bust through to college basketball's premiere event.
For older fans that are able to harken back to the Ralph Sampson days, it feels as if it has been an even longer wait. Twice in a four-year span -- 1981 and 1984, the latter without Sampson -- the Cavaliers made the Final Four, losing both times in the semifinals, first to North Carolina and then to Houston. Perhaps Virginia faithful believed the team was there to stay in the elite, even though the second Final Four run came as a surprise. And then ... nothing but three Elite Eight appearances (1983, 1995, 2016), and not even an ACC tournament championship until 2014.
The wait seemed like it would never end after 2016 and 2018. In 2016, the Wahoos had one of the best teams in the nation and were seemingly cruising to a regional title in the Elite Eight when Syracuse overcame a double-digit deficit midway through the second half and crushed Hoo Nation's Final Four dreams. And we all know what happened last year.
However long the wait was for you, whether you go back to the 1980s or earlier as a UVa fan, or you're a child or student only familiar with the Bennett era, it's here. The time is now. The team has arrived at the sport's biggest stage. It's about to become reality. Let's embrace the moment as fans, just like the players are surely doing.
Virginia's opponent is Auburn, which, like Purdue and Oregon, had its down moments this year but is playing solid basketball at the right time. The Tigers are led by the antithesis of Bennett, Bruce Pearl. Pearl was fired from Tennessee for NCAA violations in 2011 and given a show-cause penalty of three seasons. Auburn hired Pearl in 2014. He is gregarious and extroverted, whereas Bennett is quiet and stoic. Pearl seemingly has the NCAA sniffing him down at every corner, whereas Bennett is known for running almost assuredly one of the cleanest programs in the nation.
But they do have one thing in common: fierce competitiveness. It just comes out in different ways. And both know how to build successful programs (whatever corners Pearl might cut is a different story, I'm simply talking about winning). Pearl, like Bennett, took over a dumpster fire at Auburn and
experienced two losing seasons out of the gate. But since then, there's been steady progress, first starting with an 18-14 record two seasons ago. Last year, the Tigers went 26-8 and lost in the second round of the NCAA tournament, probably earlier than they should've been eliminated. Now in 2018-19, Auburn blasted through the SEC tournament, beating Tennessee twice in March -- once in the regular-season finale by four, and once in the SEC tourney final by 20 -- before knocking down a who's who list of college hoops royalty in the tournament: consecutive victories over Kansas, North Carolina and Kentucky.
Before that, Auburn had to survive a first-round nail-biter against New Mexico State. But you know what? That's the way the Big Dance works. What matters is the Tigers did advance. Virginia did the same, overcoming its UMBC ghosts and a 14-point deficit against Gardner-Webb, and now they are set to meet in Minneapolis in UVa's third Final Four, and Auburn's first. Even going back to the days of NBA legend and former Auburn star Charles Barkley, the Tigers have never made it this far.
Here's more on this season's Auburn team:
Record: 30-9, 11-7 SEC, tied for fourth
Coach: Pearl, 24th year, 562-216; fifth at Auburn, 100-71
Scorers in double figures: Senior 6-foot-3 guard Bryce Brown (16), junior 5-11 guard Jared Harper (15.4)
Leading rebounders: Junior 6-11 center Austin Wiley (4.1), senior 6-8 forward Horace Spencer (4.1), junior 6-7 forward Anfernee McLemore (3.8), junior 6-4 guard Samir Doughty (3.4), senior 6-6 guard Malik Dunbar (3.2)
Assist leaders: Harper (5.8), Brown (1.9), Doughty (1.7)
Notable: Sophomore 6-8 forward Chuma Okeke seriously injured his knee against North Carolina in the Sweet 16 and is out. He's a big loss for the Tigers. Okeke was averaging 12 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.2 blocks. Even without Okeke, the Tigers go deep, with nine players averaging double-figure minutes. Doughty (7.2 ppg), Wiley (7.1), Dunbar (6.8), and McLemore (6.6) all average at least six points. Doughty (1.4 steals per game), Harper (1.2), Brown (1.1), Spencer (0.9), and Dunbar (0.9) are all adept basketball thieves. Wiley averages 1.3 blocks, McLemore 1.1, and Spencer 0.9.
Win streak: 12; edged No. 12 seed New Mexico State, 78-74, in the first round, clobbered No. 4 seed Kansas, 89-75, in the second round, crushed No. 1 seed North Carolina, 97-80, in the Sweet 16, and then defeated No. 2 seed Kentucky, 77-71, in the Elite Eight
Best win: March has held a collection of great victories for the Tigers. They beat NCAA No. 2 seed
Tennessee in the SEC championship, 84-64, and then of course the wins over the Tar Heels and Wildcats were excellent.
Worst win: There was actually a time when Auburn was not eviscerating highly ranked teams. On Feb. 28, Auburn won at Georgia, 78-75. The Bulldogs finished the season 11-21 ad 2-16 in the SEC.
Other wins: South Alabama, Washington, Mississippi College (DII), Xavier, Arizona, Saint Peter's, UNC Asheville, Dayton, UAB, Murray State, North Florida, Georgia (home), Texas A&M, Missouri (twice), Alabama (twice), Florida (twice), Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Mississippi State (home), Tennessee (home), South Carolina (neutral)
Best loss: No. 12 Kentucky at home, 82-80
Worst loss: At No. 4 Kentucky is of course a very tough game, but the Tigers were blown out, 80-55. For those keeping track, Auburn went 1-2 against Kentucky. The Tigers also struggled in a 80-77 road loss to South Carolina. The Gamecocks finished 16-16.
Other losses: Duke, N.C. State, Ole Miss (twice), Mississippi State (road), LSU
Common opponents with UVa: Duke (six-point loss; UVa two- and 10-point losses), Dayton (10-point victory; UVa seven-point victory), N.C. State (seven-point loss; Virginia one- and 20-point wins)
Note: Some of the below numbers are taken from Auburn's athletics site. Those are updated through the four NCAA tournament games. Normally, I take stats from NCAA.com. The problem I've ran into is not all of NCAA.com's stats are updated through all the tourney games. What I've done is slot Auburn's rankings for these stats based on the newest numbers. Keep in mind, though, this does not take into account new stats for other teams, whose rankings would change accordingly. But you should get a good idea of where the Tigers stand. Another key to remember: These numbers reflect a full season of Okeke's contributions.
What Auburn does well: The Tigers own a quality offense that has put up 80.2 ppg (28th) and shot 37.9 percent from 3-point land (30th). They also rack up 14.4 assists per game (91st) and own a 1.21 assist-turnover ratio (72nd), turning the ball over just 11.8 times per game (69th). They get to the line a lot, too, with 746 attempts (49th). Defensively, Auburn is solid if not great. The Tigers give up 68.9 ppg (107th) and pick up 9.4 steals per game (third) while forcing teams into 17.3 turnovers per game (eighth). The Tigers also average 4.8 blocks (about 20th).
What Auburn doesn't do well: The overall field goal percentage, 45.1 (135th), isn't fantastic, and the Tigers also struggle at the charity stripe at 70.9 percent (166th). Defensively, Auburn gives up shooting percentages of 43.5 from the field (163rd) and 34.4 from beyond the arc (about 200th). Auburn is weak on the glass, getting outrebounded by a margin of -1.2 per game (about 230th). As should be expected with a pretty aggressive defense, Auburn has recorded plenty of fouls, 722 (345th).
As I stated, Auburn has had some rough moments this season. It was swept by NCAA No. 8 seed Ole Miss (which lost to Virginia second-round opponent Oklahoma in the first round) by 15 points and then five. The Tigers struggled against or lost to non-NCAA tournament teams N.C. State, UAB, Xavier, Georgia, Missouri, Alabama, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt.
But none of that matters now. Auburn, like every team that makes it to the Final Four, whether it is George Mason (2006), VCU (2011), Loyola-Chicago (2018) or a traditional power, is playing well and is hot. The Tigers have won 12 straight and have knocked off three bluebloods in a row. Their
coach has more energy than a lot of kids and appears to have no fear. Virginia must be ready for a fight.
But Virginia should hold some advantages. Okeke is a big, big loss for the Tigers in the middle. They already owned a negative rebounding margin on the year with him, and he was their leader on the glass, and now he's gone. That means Virginia should try to attack the inside of Auburn's defense when possible. That has been a weak spot for the Tigers, who rely on pressure to try to create turnovers but rank 38th in adjusted defense, according to Ken Pomeroy (Purdue was 33rd, Virginia is fifth, and Texas Tech is first). But if Virginia plays its typical efficient, clean style and makes good passes, it should be able to work the ball around for some good shots and looks right at the rim. While UVa is not one to get to the line a lot, Auburn has fouled opponents at a high rate, more incentive for the Cavaliers to attack. Minus Okeke, offensive rebounds could also be key, as they were last Saturday when the Wahoos recorded 17 vs. the Boilermakers.
Virginia shouldn't want or need to get in a 3-point shooting contest with Auburn. The Tigers love to bomb 3s at a rate that's almost half of their shots from the field (eighth-highest rate in the nation), according to the Hoos Place preview. The Cavaliers shoot better on the season from beyond the arc than the Tigers, but UVa has struggled from distance in the dance. Even against Purdue, with Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome heating up, Virginia shot just 33 percent (9 of 27) after knocking down about 40 percent during the regular season. UVa should resist the urge -- one prevalent in college basketball today -- to bomb away, even though Auburn might want to bait it into such a contest. As we noted in our Hoos Place podcast, shooting can sometimes be tricky at the Final Four, with the event now held annually in huge modern football stadiums. This week at practice, De'Andre Hunter said it looked like the rim was floating inside U.S. Bank Stadium, home of the Minnesota Vikings. Mamadi Diakite said it felt weird to play on a raised floor. Let Auburn shoot tons of 3s in unfamiliar surroundings, essentially what amounts to a basketball cave. Purdue made 14 3s last weekend, Virginia hit nine, but the Cavaliers won. Our guys should not feel the urge to have to shoot 3s if they fall behind a little early. How do you get comfortable and in a zone? Go inside, attack the basket, and take easier shots. If Auburn makes 10 3s, and Virginia makes five, it won't matter if UVa shoots 45 percent overall and Auburn 35 percent.
Auburn likes to run. Indeed, for anyone watching some of the Auburn-UNC game, it was mind-boggling to watch the Tigers and Tar Heels score about three baskets in 20 seconds. Auburn beat North Carolina at its own game. And yet, the Tigers' tempo rates just 153rd on Ken Pom. They were happy to run with the Tar Heels, but have been frustrated by slower teams at times. It's easier to bait Virginia into a 3-point shooting contest than it is to get it sped up. I'm confident that if teams such as UNC can't consistently speed up Virginia, Auburn won't be able to either. Working the ball methodically up the court is the Cavaliers' bread and butter, and it should work in their favor in this game to take their time and take that element away from Auburn, provided they take care of the ball, too.
The Tigers can win a slow-paced game, though. Kentucky is a slow team this year, and Auburn won against the Wildcats in their Elite Eight meeting. Harper had 26 points, and Brown 24. No other Tiger was in double figures. Auburn shot 40 percent from the field, 7 of 23 from beyond the arc (30.4 percent), with four of those 3s coming from Brown, and then Auburn supplemented the not-so-good
shooting from the field with an 18-of-24 performance at the line. Kentucky's PJ Washington had 28 points, but the Wildcats shot 5 of 21 (23.8 percent) on 3-pointers and 12 of 21 at the line. Auburn is great about getting to the line, so Virginia needs to be careful on defense as well and limit the stupid fouls.
Harper and Brown are both small guards, and sometimes those players can give Virginia fits. Just look at Purdue's Carsen Edwards. But really, Edwards had a transcendent shooting night that he probably couldn't replicate again. Kihei Clark likely will be matched up on Harper, and Harper is just 5-11, so he won't have a big height advantage on Clark. Clark's job will be to keep up with him as good as he can and hope Harper doesn't go off for 26 points (or 42 for that matter). If Virginia can slow down at least one of those two and force someone else to step up, in the absence of Okeke, UVa will be that much closer to advancing to the title game.
Look, I've spent a lot of words on this preview, but the bottom line is this, as it has been in almost every Virginia game this season: The Cavaliers are the better team, now they just need to go show it. Play a smart, efficient, clean game, and this is one the 'Hoos win seven times out of 10. The matchup
is favorable. If the Cavaliers don't let the Tigers speed them up, in style (easy) or with turnovers (little harder), and don't take a ton of 3s unless hot, this is their game. Crash the glass when available, but be sure to get back, because Auburn will go fast when it wants to. Solid passes, work around for good, intelligent shots, pray no one on Auburn gets red hot, and there's no reason Virginia can't advance to Monday's championship.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
Texas Tech-Michigan State gut feeling: MSU by 1-5 points.
Minneapolis, 6:09 p.m., CBS
The wait is almost over. UVa's first Final Four game in 35 years tips off in about 24 hours, and it feels like a long time coming for a lot of Wahoos. Even for myself, I'm just 31, and I started paying attention to Virginia basketball in about 1998. The hoops played from that year through about 2013 was largely ... not good. My third year at Virginia was the disastrous 10-win 2008-09 campaign that got Dave Leitao fired. My fourth year was Tony Bennett's first season on Grounds. Even though I saw progression that first season, I don't think I thought this was possible in my wildest dreams, even 11 years later. I would've said you were crazy had you even told me then that Virginia would be a perennial NCAA tournament team, after so many seasons of just wanting to be near the bubble in
 |
| If Tony Bennett felt like it took a long time to get to the Final Four, you can only imagine the emotions of long-suffering UVa fans who remember the team's last trip to the event in 1984. |
For older fans that are able to harken back to the Ralph Sampson days, it feels as if it has been an even longer wait. Twice in a four-year span -- 1981 and 1984, the latter without Sampson -- the Cavaliers made the Final Four, losing both times in the semifinals, first to North Carolina and then to Houston. Perhaps Virginia faithful believed the team was there to stay in the elite, even though the second Final Four run came as a surprise. And then ... nothing but three Elite Eight appearances (1983, 1995, 2016), and not even an ACC tournament championship until 2014.
The wait seemed like it would never end after 2016 and 2018. In 2016, the Wahoos had one of the best teams in the nation and were seemingly cruising to a regional title in the Elite Eight when Syracuse overcame a double-digit deficit midway through the second half and crushed Hoo Nation's Final Four dreams. And we all know what happened last year.
However long the wait was for you, whether you go back to the 1980s or earlier as a UVa fan, or you're a child or student only familiar with the Bennett era, it's here. The time is now. The team has arrived at the sport's biggest stage. It's about to become reality. Let's embrace the moment as fans, just like the players are surely doing.
Virginia's opponent is Auburn, which, like Purdue and Oregon, had its down moments this year but is playing solid basketball at the right time. The Tigers are led by the antithesis of Bennett, Bruce Pearl. Pearl was fired from Tennessee for NCAA violations in 2011 and given a show-cause penalty of three seasons. Auburn hired Pearl in 2014. He is gregarious and extroverted, whereas Bennett is quiet and stoic. Pearl seemingly has the NCAA sniffing him down at every corner, whereas Bennett is known for running almost assuredly one of the cleanest programs in the nation.
But they do have one thing in common: fierce competitiveness. It just comes out in different ways. And both know how to build successful programs (whatever corners Pearl might cut is a different story, I'm simply talking about winning). Pearl, like Bennett, took over a dumpster fire at Auburn and
 |
| Bruce Pearl has been dogged by NCAA violations for the past decade, but the guy seems to be a really good basketball coach. |
Before that, Auburn had to survive a first-round nail-biter against New Mexico State. But you know what? That's the way the Big Dance works. What matters is the Tigers did advance. Virginia did the same, overcoming its UMBC ghosts and a 14-point deficit against Gardner-Webb, and now they are set to meet in Minneapolis in UVa's third Final Four, and Auburn's first. Even going back to the days of NBA legend and former Auburn star Charles Barkley, the Tigers have never made it this far.
Here's more on this season's Auburn team:
Record: 30-9, 11-7 SEC, tied for fourth
Coach: Pearl, 24th year, 562-216; fifth at Auburn, 100-71
Scorers in double figures: Senior 6-foot-3 guard Bryce Brown (16), junior 5-11 guard Jared Harper (15.4)
Leading rebounders: Junior 6-11 center Austin Wiley (4.1), senior 6-8 forward Horace Spencer (4.1), junior 6-7 forward Anfernee McLemore (3.8), junior 6-4 guard Samir Doughty (3.4), senior 6-6 guard Malik Dunbar (3.2)
Assist leaders: Harper (5.8), Brown (1.9), Doughty (1.7)
Notable: Sophomore 6-8 forward Chuma Okeke seriously injured his knee against North Carolina in the Sweet 16 and is out. He's a big loss for the Tigers. Okeke was averaging 12 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.2 blocks. Even without Okeke, the Tigers go deep, with nine players averaging double-figure minutes. Doughty (7.2 ppg), Wiley (7.1), Dunbar (6.8), and McLemore (6.6) all average at least six points. Doughty (1.4 steals per game), Harper (1.2), Brown (1.1), Spencer (0.9), and Dunbar (0.9) are all adept basketball thieves. Wiley averages 1.3 blocks, McLemore 1.1, and Spencer 0.9.
Win streak: 12; edged No. 12 seed New Mexico State, 78-74, in the first round, clobbered No. 4 seed Kansas, 89-75, in the second round, crushed No. 1 seed North Carolina, 97-80, in the Sweet 16, and then defeated No. 2 seed Kentucky, 77-71, in the Elite Eight
Best win: March has held a collection of great victories for the Tigers. They beat NCAA No. 2 seed
Worst win: There was actually a time when Auburn was not eviscerating highly ranked teams. On Feb. 28, Auburn won at Georgia, 78-75. The Bulldogs finished the season 11-21 ad 2-16 in the SEC.
Other wins: South Alabama, Washington, Mississippi College (DII), Xavier, Arizona, Saint Peter's, UNC Asheville, Dayton, UAB, Murray State, North Florida, Georgia (home), Texas A&M, Missouri (twice), Alabama (twice), Florida (twice), Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Mississippi State (home), Tennessee (home), South Carolina (neutral)
Best loss: No. 12 Kentucky at home, 82-80
Worst loss: At No. 4 Kentucky is of course a very tough game, but the Tigers were blown out, 80-55. For those keeping track, Auburn went 1-2 against Kentucky. The Tigers also struggled in a 80-77 road loss to South Carolina. The Gamecocks finished 16-16.
Other losses: Duke, N.C. State, Ole Miss (twice), Mississippi State (road), LSU
Common opponents with UVa: Duke (six-point loss; UVa two- and 10-point losses), Dayton (10-point victory; UVa seven-point victory), N.C. State (seven-point loss; Virginia one- and 20-point wins)
Note: Some of the below numbers are taken from Auburn's athletics site. Those are updated through the four NCAA tournament games. Normally, I take stats from NCAA.com. The problem I've ran into is not all of NCAA.com's stats are updated through all the tourney games. What I've done is slot Auburn's rankings for these stats based on the newest numbers. Keep in mind, though, this does not take into account new stats for other teams, whose rankings would change accordingly. But you should get a good idea of where the Tigers stand. Another key to remember: These numbers reflect a full season of Okeke's contributions.
What Auburn does well: The Tigers own a quality offense that has put up 80.2 ppg (28th) and shot 37.9 percent from 3-point land (30th). They also rack up 14.4 assists per game (91st) and own a 1.21 assist-turnover ratio (72nd), turning the ball over just 11.8 times per game (69th). They get to the line a lot, too, with 746 attempts (49th). Defensively, Auburn is solid if not great. The Tigers give up 68.9 ppg (107th) and pick up 9.4 steals per game (third) while forcing teams into 17.3 turnovers per game (eighth). The Tigers also average 4.8 blocks (about 20th).
What Auburn doesn't do well: The overall field goal percentage, 45.1 (135th), isn't fantastic, and the Tigers also struggle at the charity stripe at 70.9 percent (166th). Defensively, Auburn gives up shooting percentages of 43.5 from the field (163rd) and 34.4 from beyond the arc (about 200th). Auburn is weak on the glass, getting outrebounded by a margin of -1.2 per game (about 230th). As should be expected with a pretty aggressive defense, Auburn has recorded plenty of fouls, 722 (345th).
As I stated, Auburn has had some rough moments this season. It was swept by NCAA No. 8 seed Ole Miss (which lost to Virginia second-round opponent Oklahoma in the first round) by 15 points and then five. The Tigers struggled against or lost to non-NCAA tournament teams N.C. State, UAB, Xavier, Georgia, Missouri, Alabama, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt.
But none of that matters now. Auburn, like every team that makes it to the Final Four, whether it is George Mason (2006), VCU (2011), Loyola-Chicago (2018) or a traditional power, is playing well and is hot. The Tigers have won 12 straight and have knocked off three bluebloods in a row. Their
 |
| Ty Jerome will try to slow the tempo and limit UVa's turnovers. |
But Virginia should hold some advantages. Okeke is a big, big loss for the Tigers in the middle. They already owned a negative rebounding margin on the year with him, and he was their leader on the glass, and now he's gone. That means Virginia should try to attack the inside of Auburn's defense when possible. That has been a weak spot for the Tigers, who rely on pressure to try to create turnovers but rank 38th in adjusted defense, according to Ken Pomeroy (Purdue was 33rd, Virginia is fifth, and Texas Tech is first). But if Virginia plays its typical efficient, clean style and makes good passes, it should be able to work the ball around for some good shots and looks right at the rim. While UVa is not one to get to the line a lot, Auburn has fouled opponents at a high rate, more incentive for the Cavaliers to attack. Minus Okeke, offensive rebounds could also be key, as they were last Saturday when the Wahoos recorded 17 vs. the Boilermakers.
Virginia shouldn't want or need to get in a 3-point shooting contest with Auburn. The Tigers love to bomb 3s at a rate that's almost half of their shots from the field (eighth-highest rate in the nation), according to the Hoos Place preview. The Cavaliers shoot better on the season from beyond the arc than the Tigers, but UVa has struggled from distance in the dance. Even against Purdue, with Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome heating up, Virginia shot just 33 percent (9 of 27) after knocking down about 40 percent during the regular season. UVa should resist the urge -- one prevalent in college basketball today -- to bomb away, even though Auburn might want to bait it into such a contest. As we noted in our Hoos Place podcast, shooting can sometimes be tricky at the Final Four, with the event now held annually in huge modern football stadiums. This week at practice, De'Andre Hunter said it looked like the rim was floating inside U.S. Bank Stadium, home of the Minnesota Vikings. Mamadi Diakite said it felt weird to play on a raised floor. Let Auburn shoot tons of 3s in unfamiliar surroundings, essentially what amounts to a basketball cave. Purdue made 14 3s last weekend, Virginia hit nine, but the Cavaliers won. Our guys should not feel the urge to have to shoot 3s if they fall behind a little early. How do you get comfortable and in a zone? Go inside, attack the basket, and take easier shots. If Auburn makes 10 3s, and Virginia makes five, it won't matter if UVa shoots 45 percent overall and Auburn 35 percent.
 |
| Kyle Guy came into the Purdue game having made 3 of his 26 3-point attempts in the NCAA tournament. He finally got it going last Saturday, sinking 5 of 12. Virginia shouldn't feel the need to get into a 3-point shooting contest with Auburn, though. |
Auburn likes to run. Indeed, for anyone watching some of the Auburn-UNC game, it was mind-boggling to watch the Tigers and Tar Heels score about three baskets in 20 seconds. Auburn beat North Carolina at its own game. And yet, the Tigers' tempo rates just 153rd on Ken Pom. They were happy to run with the Tar Heels, but have been frustrated by slower teams at times. It's easier to bait Virginia into a 3-point shooting contest than it is to get it sped up. I'm confident that if teams such as UNC can't consistently speed up Virginia, Auburn won't be able to either. Working the ball methodically up the court is the Cavaliers' bread and butter, and it should work in their favor in this game to take their time and take that element away from Auburn, provided they take care of the ball, too.
The Tigers can win a slow-paced game, though. Kentucky is a slow team this year, and Auburn won against the Wildcats in their Elite Eight meeting. Harper had 26 points, and Brown 24. No other Tiger was in double figures. Auburn shot 40 percent from the field, 7 of 23 from beyond the arc (30.4 percent), with four of those 3s coming from Brown, and then Auburn supplemented the not-so-good
 |
| Jared Harper is one of two small, quick guards that really make Auburn go. He scored 26 points against Kentucky, and backcourt mate Bryce Brown put up 24. |
Harper and Brown are both small guards, and sometimes those players can give Virginia fits. Just look at Purdue's Carsen Edwards. But really, Edwards had a transcendent shooting night that he probably couldn't replicate again. Kihei Clark likely will be matched up on Harper, and Harper is just 5-11, so he won't have a big height advantage on Clark. Clark's job will be to keep up with him as good as he can and hope Harper doesn't go off for 26 points (or 42 for that matter). If Virginia can slow down at least one of those two and force someone else to step up, in the absence of Okeke, UVa will be that much closer to advancing to the title game.
Look, I've spent a lot of words on this preview, but the bottom line is this, as it has been in almost every Virginia game this season: The Cavaliers are the better team, now they just need to go show it. Play a smart, efficient, clean game, and this is one the 'Hoos win seven times out of 10. The matchup
 |
| Like last week against Carsen Edwards, Kihei Clark's job on defense is going to be pestering one of Auburn's stars all over the court. |
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5 points.
Texas Tech-Michigan State gut feeling: MSU by 1-5 points.
Great preview -- I think both UVa and Michigan State will win by 5-plus points tonight. It is going to be one epic national championship game.
ReplyDelete