Virginia places sixth in Maui Invitational, NFL Thanksgiving, College picks, Jimmie Johnson continues reign over Sprint Cup
I'm going to try to touch on lots of things here in this post so I will try to keep each one short because the few people who maybe are reading my blog probably won't see read this on Thanksgiving, besides me : )
UVA BASKETBALL
The Cavaliers placed sixth out of eight teams in the Maui Invitational played Monday through Wednesday. After getting mauled 106-63 by Washington, the Hoos responded with a comfortable 74-56 win over Oklahoma Tuesday. Last night, in the fifth place game, Virginia took an early lead over Wichita State but could not hold on to beat the Shockers and lost 70-58. Washington is a very good team and played both Kentucky and Michigan State tough in their other two Maui games. Oklahoma is not very good. I didn't realize the Sooners had a losing record last year. This year looks to be tough for them, too. After the loss to UVA, OU lost to host Chaminade in the seventh place game yesterday. Wichita State is not a household name, but is a solid midmajor program with lots of experience from the Missouri Valley Conference (think Northern Iowa and Creighton). Although Oklahoma is bad, it was good to see the Hoos respond so well to the 43-point loss at the hands of Washington. That is an encouraging sign. Tony Bennett can coach the guys up quickly (the game took place only several hours after the Washington loss) and the young roster showed some resiliency. We've got a ways to go to be competitive with most of the ACC, but hopefully we are taking baby steps, just like the football program is trying to do.
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PICKS
Let's get to the Turkey Day NFL games first. I will be picking Sunday games as well, but will do that later. Last week, I went 7-4 in picks and now stand at 87-61 on the year.
12:30
New England at Detroit
The Lions offense has failed to get going the last two games, scoring 17 points against Dallas (score was 35-19 but two points were for a safety) and 12 against the Bills. New England will likely ruin another Thanksgiving Day in Detroit. When's the last time the Lions won in this holiday game anyway? 34-17.
4:15
New Orleans at Dallas
After a sluggish start last week, the Cowboys offense got going in the second half and scored 28 points to clobber Detroit for Jason Garrett's second head coaching win. Now Dallas gets the Saints, who are starting to hit their stride a little bit. I'm just getting a small sense about this game though, that it can go the Cowboys' way. They are 3-7 but probably are playing as a top 5 NFC team right now. Dallas has won four straight Thanksgiving Day games and handed the Saints their first loss of the year last season. I like the Cowboys 31-27.
8:20
Cincinnati at N.Y. Jets
The Bungles (after a surprising 10-6 campaign in 2009 the Bengals are back to being the Bungles) hvae fallen on hard times recently, losing seven in a row after getting to 2-1 with wins over Carolina and Baltimore. At first Cincy was playing teams tough, only to lose by a few points, but last week, the wheels came off against Buffalo in the second half and the Bungles turned a 31-14 lead into a 49-31 loss to the one-win Bills. Not good. The Jets have won their last three games by a combined 12 points but I think they'll have less of a problem this week, though the Bengals keep it close. 30-21 Jets.
COLLEGE
There are several interesting games on rivalry weekend but there are also some games that matter greatly in the BCS title picture.
Thanksgiving Day
8:00
No. 17 Texas A&M at Texas
The Aggies won 9-6 last week in a game vs. Nebraska that I thought would result in a win by the Cornhuskers with both teams scoring in the 30s. Texas A&M has won five straight after a mid-season slump when they lost three games in a row. Texas, meanwhile, needs to win just to get bowl eligible. But I don't think it will happen. I like the Aggies to break through and a get a victory over the rival Longhorns. 29-17
Friday-Three top-tier matchups with BCS title game hopefuls facing tough challenges
2:30
No. 2 Auburn at No. 11 Alabama
After a disappointing season, the Crimson Tide would take immense joy in knocking hated rival Auburn out of the BCS title game. I think they'll do it. The Tigers have reached the end of the line. They've had several close victories this season. The Tide are still an awesome team and they are playing at home, where they have not lost. Tide take the Iron Bowl, 27-26.
7:00
No. 21 Arizona at No. 1 Oregon
Both teams had a bye week last week. The Wildcats have lost two straight, a 24-21 decision to USC, and then a blowout loss to Stanford. The Ducks almost lost in their last game at Cal. I think the Ducks will get their blur offense up and running again at home. Oregon 45-28.
10:15
No. 4 Boise State at No. 19 Nevada
Nevada is no doubt a great team. QB Colin Kaepernick is now more well-known around the country because of the Wolf Pack's offensive performances. Nevada has lost one game--Hawaii. In their wins, the Wolf Pack have not scored less than 27 points. At home, they've scored under 49 points only once. As impressive as Nevada has been, though, Boise State has been better. They've played lights-out except for one game in which the Broncos failed to put away Louisiana Tech early--they still won 49-20 though. Boise's lowest offensive output of the season was 33 points against Virginia Tech and they routinely have put up numbers in the high 40s and low 50s. I think this will be an exciting game, but the Broncos win 41-31.
Saturday
UVA BASKETBALL
The Cavaliers placed sixth out of eight teams in the Maui Invitational played Monday through Wednesday. After getting mauled 106-63 by Washington, the Hoos responded with a comfortable 74-56 win over Oklahoma Tuesday. Last night, in the fifth place game, Virginia took an early lead over Wichita State but could not hold on to beat the Shockers and lost 70-58. Washington is a very good team and played both Kentucky and Michigan State tough in their other two Maui games. Oklahoma is not very good. I didn't realize the Sooners had a losing record last year. This year looks to be tough for them, too. After the loss to UVA, OU lost to host Chaminade in the seventh place game yesterday. Wichita State is not a household name, but is a solid midmajor program with lots of experience from the Missouri Valley Conference (think Northern Iowa and Creighton). Although Oklahoma is bad, it was good to see the Hoos respond so well to the 43-point loss at the hands of Washington. That is an encouraging sign. Tony Bennett can coach the guys up quickly (the game took place only several hours after the Washington loss) and the young roster showed some resiliency. We've got a ways to go to be competitive with most of the ACC, but hopefully we are taking baby steps, just like the football program is trying to do.
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PICKS
Let's get to the Turkey Day NFL games first. I will be picking Sunday games as well, but will do that later. Last week, I went 7-4 in picks and now stand at 87-61 on the year.
12:30
New England at Detroit
The Lions offense has failed to get going the last two games, scoring 17 points against Dallas (score was 35-19 but two points were for a safety) and 12 against the Bills. New England will likely ruin another Thanksgiving Day in Detroit. When's the last time the Lions won in this holiday game anyway? 34-17.
4:15
New Orleans at Dallas
After a sluggish start last week, the Cowboys offense got going in the second half and scored 28 points to clobber Detroit for Jason Garrett's second head coaching win. Now Dallas gets the Saints, who are starting to hit their stride a little bit. I'm just getting a small sense about this game though, that it can go the Cowboys' way. They are 3-7 but probably are playing as a top 5 NFC team right now. Dallas has won four straight Thanksgiving Day games and handed the Saints their first loss of the year last season. I like the Cowboys 31-27.
8:20
Cincinnati at N.Y. Jets
The Bungles (after a surprising 10-6 campaign in 2009 the Bengals are back to being the Bungles) hvae fallen on hard times recently, losing seven in a row after getting to 2-1 with wins over Carolina and Baltimore. At first Cincy was playing teams tough, only to lose by a few points, but last week, the wheels came off against Buffalo in the second half and the Bungles turned a 31-14 lead into a 49-31 loss to the one-win Bills. Not good. The Jets have won their last three games by a combined 12 points but I think they'll have less of a problem this week, though the Bengals keep it close. 30-21 Jets.
COLLEGE
There are several interesting games on rivalry weekend but there are also some games that matter greatly in the BCS title picture.
Thanksgiving Day
8:00
No. 17 Texas A&M at Texas
The Aggies won 9-6 last week in a game vs. Nebraska that I thought would result in a win by the Cornhuskers with both teams scoring in the 30s. Texas A&M has won five straight after a mid-season slump when they lost three games in a row. Texas, meanwhile, needs to win just to get bowl eligible. But I don't think it will happen. I like the Aggies to break through and a get a victory over the rival Longhorns. 29-17
Friday-Three top-tier matchups with BCS title game hopefuls facing tough challenges
2:30
No. 2 Auburn at No. 11 Alabama
After a disappointing season, the Crimson Tide would take immense joy in knocking hated rival Auburn out of the BCS title game. I think they'll do it. The Tigers have reached the end of the line. They've had several close victories this season. The Tide are still an awesome team and they are playing at home, where they have not lost. Tide take the Iron Bowl, 27-26.
7:00
No. 21 Arizona at No. 1 Oregon
Both teams had a bye week last week. The Wildcats have lost two straight, a 24-21 decision to USC, and then a blowout loss to Stanford. The Ducks almost lost in their last game at Cal. I think the Ducks will get their blur offense up and running again at home. Oregon 45-28.
10:15
No. 4 Boise State at No. 19 Nevada
Nevada is no doubt a great team. QB Colin Kaepernick is now more well-known around the country because of the Wolf Pack's offensive performances. Nevada has lost one game--Hawaii. In their wins, the Wolf Pack have not scored less than 27 points. At home, they've scored under 49 points only once. As impressive as Nevada has been, though, Boise State has been better. They've played lights-out except for one game in which the Broncos failed to put away Louisiana Tech early--they still won 49-20 though. Boise's lowest offensive output of the season was 33 points against Virginia Tech and they routinely have put up numbers in the high 40s and low 50s. I think this will be an exciting game, but the Broncos win 41-31.
Saturday
Noon
Michigan at No. 8 Ohio State
The Buckeyes have won six straight over the Wolverines, the same number of games Virginia Tech has won over Virginia and Florida has won over Florida State. Michigan is closing the gap some on Ohio State. Rich Rodriguez was 3-9 in his first year in Ann Arbor, then 5-7 last year and now stands at 7-4 before this game. But this year, look for Ohio State to win again, and get lots of points on Michigan's struggling defense. 45-27
Michigan at No. 8 Ohio State
The Buckeyes have won six straight over the Wolverines, the same number of games Virginia Tech has won over Virginia and Florida has won over Florida State. Michigan is closing the gap some on Ohio State. Rich Rodriguez was 3-9 in his first year in Ann Arbor, then 5-7 last year and now stands at 7-4 before this game. But this year, look for Ohio State to win again, and get lots of points on Michigan's struggling defense. 45-27
Virginia at No. 16 Virginia Tech
The Hokies have locked up a spot in the ACC title game and aren't playing for anything. They can get to the Orange Bowl or another BCS bowl with a win over N.C. State or FSU in the ACC championship no matter what happens Saturday. They are always up for the showdown with the Cavs though. And I think losing their first two games of the season really kicked them into gear. In the end, they may end up having a more successful season than if they had won those two games. I find it unlikely they would have won every other game had they started 2-0. N.C. State, UNC, Miami and Georgia Tech all had their shots at the Hokies, but Va. Tech stood firm, hardened by the disappointments of the beginning of the year. I feel like a letdown would have been more possible if Tech had been undefeated, but instead they pulled those tough ACC games out. If they were undefeated, perhaps the Hokies would have been motivated in those games to get to the national championship but we'll never know. As it stands, Tech has done all it can to erase those two losses. Running the entire table after starting 0-2 is the best thing they can do to ease the pain of what happened in the beginning of the year, so I think they have some motivation Saturday.
That said, the Hokies may have a conservative game plan, or pull players nursing injuries. They need to think about the ACC title game and bowl game. Remember, they didn't win the ACC last year (Georgia Tech did) so I'm sure they want to get back on top of the conference, but I think they'll walk a fine line between beating Virginia and resting players. An upset would be possible if Virginia's defense were better. I'm not too concerned about Tech's defense. The secondary is pretty good, with safety Jayron Hosley leading the nation with eight picks, so we'll need to be careful with the situations we put Marc Verica in (assuming he plays for most of the game). But teams have proven you can put up yards and points against the Hokies, so I expect Virginia to play well on offense. Heavy doses of the Keith Payne train--in his final game after an emotional comeback--would be the way to keep the Hokies offense off the field and have any chance of an upset.
Virginia's defense has been really bad though, and the Hokies offense is very dynamic and dangerous. Tyrod Taylor is in his senior year, and can pass or run with ease. Add to that fact the running back trio of Ryan Williams, Darren Evans, and David Wilson, and the Cavaliers' defense is likely in big trouble unless they have their best game of the year. I wouldn't be surprised if Virginia were to take an early lead based on the emotional surge they should play with against their big brother who has consistenly beaten them down, but eventually reality will set in and the Hokies will start controlling the action late in the first half or early in the second. 48-27 Tech
The Hokies have locked up a spot in the ACC title game and aren't playing for anything. They can get to the Orange Bowl or another BCS bowl with a win over N.C. State or FSU in the ACC championship no matter what happens Saturday. They are always up for the showdown with the Cavs though. And I think losing their first two games of the season really kicked them into gear. In the end, they may end up having a more successful season than if they had won those two games. I find it unlikely they would have won every other game had they started 2-0. N.C. State, UNC, Miami and Georgia Tech all had their shots at the Hokies, but Va. Tech stood firm, hardened by the disappointments of the beginning of the year. I feel like a letdown would have been more possible if Tech had been undefeated, but instead they pulled those tough ACC games out. If they were undefeated, perhaps the Hokies would have been motivated in those games to get to the national championship but we'll never know. As it stands, Tech has done all it can to erase those two losses. Running the entire table after starting 0-2 is the best thing they can do to ease the pain of what happened in the beginning of the year, so I think they have some motivation Saturday.
That said, the Hokies may have a conservative game plan, or pull players nursing injuries. They need to think about the ACC title game and bowl game. Remember, they didn't win the ACC last year (Georgia Tech did) so I'm sure they want to get back on top of the conference, but I think they'll walk a fine line between beating Virginia and resting players. An upset would be possible if Virginia's defense were better. I'm not too concerned about Tech's defense. The secondary is pretty good, with safety Jayron Hosley leading the nation with eight picks, so we'll need to be careful with the situations we put Marc Verica in (assuming he plays for most of the game). But teams have proven you can put up yards and points against the Hokies, so I expect Virginia to play well on offense. Heavy doses of the Keith Payne train--in his final game after an emotional comeback--would be the way to keep the Hokies offense off the field and have any chance of an upset.
Virginia's defense has been really bad though, and the Hokies offense is very dynamic and dangerous. Tyrod Taylor is in his senior year, and can pass or run with ease. Add to that fact the running back trio of Ryan Williams, Darren Evans, and David Wilson, and the Cavaliers' defense is likely in big trouble unless they have their best game of the year. I wouldn't be surprised if Virginia were to take an early lead based on the emotional surge they should play with against their big brother who has consistenly beaten them down, but eventually reality will set in and the Hokies will start controlling the action late in the first half or early in the second. 48-27 Tech
3:30
No. 5 LSU at No. 12 Arkansas
LSU has lived on the edge all year and Arkansas is playing better now than it has earlier in the year when the Razorbacks lost to Alabama and Auburn. LSU struggled last week against Ole Miss. I like Arkansas at home, 34-31.
No. 5 LSU at No. 12 Arkansas
LSU has lived on the edge all year and Arkansas is playing better now than it has earlier in the year when the Razorbacks lost to Alabama and Auburn. LSU struggled last week against Ole Miss. I like Arkansas at home, 34-31.
Florida at No. 22 Florida State
The Seminoles should be hungry for this one. I like them to snap the Gators' six-game winning streak in the series. FSU gets the win at home, 27-23.
The Seminoles should be hungry for this one. I like them to snap the Gators' six-game winning streak in the series. FSU gets the win at home, 27-23.
No. 23 N.C. State at Maryland
The Wolfpack can wrap up the ACC Atlantic with a win here and I think they will. Like last week vs. FSU, the Terps will hang tough, but they are the third or fourth best team in the division. N.C. State wins 38-24.
The Wolfpack can wrap up the ACC Atlantic with a win here and I think they will. Like last week vs. FSU, the Terps will hang tough, but they are the third or fourth best team in the division. N.C. State wins 38-24.
7:00
No. 18 South Carolina at Clemson
Clemson just got bowl eligible last week by beating lowly Wake Forest. South Carolina has a showdown with Auburn to think about in the SEC title game. Still, like the Virginia-Virginia Tech game, the difference in talent will be too much for Clemson to overcome, even if the Gamecocks rest some players here and there. I like the SEC and South Carolina in this one, 35-27.
No. 18 South Carolina at Clemson
Clemson just got bowl eligible last week by beating lowly Wake Forest. South Carolina has a showdown with Auburn to think about in the SEC title game. Still, like the Virginia-Virginia Tech game, the difference in talent will be too much for Clemson to overcome, even if the Gamecocks rest some players here and there. I like the SEC and South Carolina in this one, 35-27.
8:00
No. 13 Oklahoma at No. 9 Oklahoma State
Should be bedlam in the Bedlam Game in Stillwater. Oklahoma State hasn't beaten the Sooners since 2002 and they've got 'em right where they want 'em. If Oklahoma State (6-1 in Big 12) wins, they represent the Big 12 South in the Big 12 championship against either Nebraska or Missouri. If OU (5-2 in Big 12) were to win, they would go if Texas A&M loses to Texas, because Texas A&M (5-2 in Big 12) beat OU. If both OU and Texas A&M were to win, the tiebreaker is the highest team in the BCS would play in the title game among the three squads. The Cowboys can end all discussion by just winning and I think they will 41-31.
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JIMMIE JOHNSON WINS SPRINT CUP CHASE AGAIN
I had a feeling Jimmie Johnson and the No. 48 team would be tough to beat in the final race at Homestead, and I was right. Despite being down 15 points to Denny Hamlin heading into the race, Johnson overcame the deficit to win a fifth consecutive championship. It is the first time in the Chase's last race the points lead changed hands. What Johnson has done is truly remarkable and whether you love him or hate him, you have to admire what he has done. It's tough to dominate any sport this long. The only team in in the realm of what Johnson has done in this day and age would be the UConn women's basketball team, which has won 80+ games in a row. A few years ago, most people probably would have thought it unlikely that Johnson could challenge Dale Earnhardt and Richard Petty's record seven titles. But it could happen. Johnson is still young and shows no signs of slowing down. You can bet come Chase time, Johnson and his team will be at the top of their game again next season. The challenge from drivers like Denny Hamlin and Carl Edwards should be even bigger, but Johnson will most certainly be in the mix.
No. 13 Oklahoma at No. 9 Oklahoma State
Should be bedlam in the Bedlam Game in Stillwater. Oklahoma State hasn't beaten the Sooners since 2002 and they've got 'em right where they want 'em. If Oklahoma State (6-1 in Big 12) wins, they represent the Big 12 South in the Big 12 championship against either Nebraska or Missouri. If OU (5-2 in Big 12) were to win, they would go if Texas A&M loses to Texas, because Texas A&M (5-2 in Big 12) beat OU. If both OU and Texas A&M were to win, the tiebreaker is the highest team in the BCS would play in the title game among the three squads. The Cowboys can end all discussion by just winning and I think they will 41-31.
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JIMMIE JOHNSON WINS SPRINT CUP CHASE AGAIN
I had a feeling Jimmie Johnson and the No. 48 team would be tough to beat in the final race at Homestead, and I was right. Despite being down 15 points to Denny Hamlin heading into the race, Johnson overcame the deficit to win a fifth consecutive championship. It is the first time in the Chase's last race the points lead changed hands. What Johnson has done is truly remarkable and whether you love him or hate him, you have to admire what he has done. It's tough to dominate any sport this long. The only team in in the realm of what Johnson has done in this day and age would be the UConn women's basketball team, which has won 80+ games in a row. A few years ago, most people probably would have thought it unlikely that Johnson could challenge Dale Earnhardt and Richard Petty's record seven titles. But it could happen. Johnson is still young and shows no signs of slowing down. You can bet come Chase time, Johnson and his team will be at the top of their game again next season. The challenge from drivers like Denny Hamlin and Carl Edwards should be even bigger, but Johnson will most certainly be in the mix.
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