A look ahead to the next UVa basketball season

Last week, I made some evaluations of the year that had just ended. Now, I'll look ahead to next season.

As I have pointed out other times as the year came to a close, it really felt like the end of an era this year because of all the seniors graduating. Malcolm Brogdon entered the program before the 2011-12 season and just graduated as a fifth year. The other scholarship seniors were Anthony Gill, Mike Tobey, and Evan Nolte. Caid Kirven was a walk-on senior.

London Perrantes will be the sole scholarship senior and thus the de factor leader for the team. Next year will be the opposite of this year with a lack of experienced seniors. Perrantes has already been a leader since day one when he ended up being the starting point guard after a few games into his freshman season. Next year will just be the culmination of his training and development when he will truly be looked to for leadership. As far as his game goes, he upped his scoring average to 11 ppg from 6.4 ppg. If the team comes together the right way, I don't think his average will have to go up much. I'll explain below. It would be a lot to ask for him to shoot better than the 48 percent from 3 he did this past season, but he is capable.

Austin Nichols could be the team's leading scorer. Fans are very excited to see how Nichols fits on the team. As a sophomore at Memphis two seasons ago, the transfer averaged 13.3 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 3.4 blocks. That fills a lot of needs UVa will have. With Brogdon and Gill gone, he will fill a big scoring gap. I think we can reasonably expect him to score around 12-13 ppg, maybe more. The pace UVa plays is slower than Memphis, so that could slow him down some, but he has a chance to be a dominating force inside and UVa's primary scoring option. The thought of him drawing defenses inside and then kicking out to open 3-point shooters is very exciting indeed. Obviously, he will give a great rebounding presence to the Cavaliers, too, something that will be sorely needed with Gill's 6.1 per game gone. And as for his blocking, that will be something UVa hasn't seen in awhile. Isaiah Wilkins had 31 blocks last year, fewer than one per game. Two seasons ago, Darion Atkins recorded just more than one per game, totaling 36. Justin Anderson was known for his athletic, highlight-reel type blocks from behind during his three years, but was never a prolific shot-blocker in number. He had only 14 during his final season. So Nichols will bring something fans to the Pack-Line defense fans haven't seen.

Isaiah Wilkins might be looked to for more offense. Wilkins already showed that he can be a force on the boards and on defense this past season. He's a little undersized at 6-foot-7, but he's a hard worker and was rewarded with a starting spot for much of this season. But he averaged just 4.6 points and was limited to putbacks and some 15-footers. Virginia has a lot of offense exiting the team. Hopefully, he can extend his range out some next year and also develop some low-post moves, which he hasn't really shown off yet.

Devon Hall
Devon Hall, Marial Shayok, and Darius Thompson should get closer to reaching their potentials. All have shown flashes of what they can become, and all can get better. Hall started 20 games and averaged 4.4 points while shooting 33 percent from 3. He has a very pretty shooting motion and obviously, getting closer to 40 percent from beyond the arc would be ideal. He has good instincts when driving to the basket and should show those off more. Too many times, he seemed to be unsure of himself and turned the ball over or made an errant pass. At other times, he ran the fast break well. The capability is there, I think he just needs to settle down, let the game slow down some, and go for it. Shayok is my favorite out of these three players, but for whatever reason, he didn't quite see the same amount of time as Hall. He was more efficient on offense, averaging 4.3 points in 15 minutes per game, whereas Hall needed 21.9 mpg for his 4.4 ppg. Shayok shot 44 percent from 3 and displayed a great knack for slashing to the basket, which he should definitely do more of. He needs to work on his ball handling, as he is a liability at times with the rock in his hands. Thompson wowed in the pre- ACC schedule with his athleticism  -- see a thunderous dunk vs. William & Mary that made SportsCenter's Top 10 -- but didn't score in eight of the 18 ACC regular-season games. He did end on a good note vs.
Marial Shayok
Syracuse in the Elite Eight, scoring nine points on 4-of-4 shooting (1 for 1 from 3). The nine points was his best outing since tallying 11 vs. Villanova in December. One of the exciting things about Thompson was his improvement from two years ago at Tennessee. His minutes per game only increased from 16.8 to 17.5, but his points per game went from 2.6 to 4.3. His 3-point shooting was very surprising. He came in with the reputation as a poor shooter -- he was below 20 percent his year as a Vol -- but shot 39 percent from beyond the arc for UVa. His shooting overall went from 38.1 percent to 53.7. His free throw shooting went down, but just from about 74 percent to about 72 percent. His 27 steals was fourth on the team despite his lack of minutes and he showed a nice ability with quick hands on defense. He needs to improve his decisiveness and harnessing his athleticism throughout an entire game, sort of like Justin Anderson had to
Darius Thompson
learn. All three of these guys are good perimeter defenders who could be great. Hopefully all three get better, but even if just two improve, that will be great for the Wahoos.

The freshman class coming in is the best rated during Tony Bennett's time in Charlottesville. What makes fans truly look forward to next season is the influx of new talent. In addition to Nichols, the freshman class has a chance to be special:

Mamadi Diakite (6-9, 195 pounds): Tall and lanky forward entered the program this past year and redshirted. Hopefully, he will put on some weight, but his athleticism and shot-blocking ability could make immediate impacts on the team. He's a pretty good ball handler for a big man. He's also shown the ability to make shots from 15 feet.

Kyle Guy (6-2, 170): The player of the year from Indiana is a real steal for UVa as the first McDonald's All-American coming to the school since Sylven Landesberg was signed by Dave Leitao. The guard was offered scholarships by the likes of Cal, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Purdue, and Xavier. He can shoot and drive to the hoop. Just watch this from summer 2015. He's also said he likes Virginia's defensive style, so he
could be the whole package. He'll probably need to bulk up some, but he's ready to play right away.

Ty Jerome (6-5, 180): Point guard known for his ability to run a team and his ball-handling ability was deceptively good at scoring and shooting. Known as one of the best players in New York City. His final prep season was cut short with hip surgery in January. It's unknown if he will be ready to play for UVa or if he will have to redshirt, but he has the potential to fill in nicely for Perrantes or take over the point guard throne full time in 2017.

DeAndre Hunter (6-7, 190): Virginia fans, we know we are getting a little spoiled when a player like Hunter is the third-highest rated member of the incoming true freshman class, and he's still a four star and top-100 player. Bennett loves his all-around solid and tall wing players, and he has another one from Philadelphia
Kyle Guy
in Hunter, who is capable of driving the lane for dunks and shooting from several different spots on the floor.

Jay Huff (6-11, 190): Virginia went into the land of the Blue Devils to land Huff, a lengthy forward who is known for his ability to shoot from 3. The Cavaliers hope the Durham product can develop into that tall forward who has the ability to terrorize defenses, and UVa has fallen victim to that type of player in recent seasons. Most of his offers were from smaller schools, but he was drawing interest late from Duke and Wake Forest before committing to Bennett.

Virginia reached the Elite Eight this past season and the past few years have been amazing. Lots of talent is leaving, but UVa has an important senior point guard returning and adds lots of exciting pieces and fresh faces. It's tough to predict the team will only have one loss in the non-conference schedule like it did in 2015-16, but I truly think after jelling, this team will be extremely dangerous
Ty Jerome
come late February and into March and have just as much if not more
potential than the team we just saw thrill us into late in the NCAA tournament.
DeAndre Hunter
Jay Huff

Comments

  1. Nice analysis. I wasn't near as optimistic as you are about next year's team, but after reading that description of the incoming freshmen, I might be changing my tune. I knew we had a good class, but that is deeper and more talented than I thought. If we can get a pipeline going, we'll definitely be able to disrupt the Duke-UNC duo as we have been the last few years. Very excited too to see what Nichols and Shayok can do with starters' minutes.

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  2. Nichols ought to be a monster that is as good or better than Gill. Shayok and others should take a step forward. We know London will be steady. If we can get one of Hall, Guy, Hunter, someone else to step up, no reason we couldn't have the ability to go deep in March.

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