Chiefs (14-4) vs. 49ers (15-3) in Miami, 6:30 p.m. Fox
Offensively charged Kansas City battles defensive-minded San Francisco in the Super Bowl on Sunday. Whichever team can be a little stronger in its weakness will likely determine which one is this season's NFL champion.
The Chiefs have won one title, Super Bowl IV, played in January 1970, when they beat the Vikings, 23-7. They haven't appeared in it since. The 49ers are veterans of the big game, having won five and appeared in six, the last one coming in Super Bowl XLVII in February 2013, when the Ravens edged them 34-31. If San Francisco wins Sunday, it will tie New England and Pittsburgh with six Lombardi Trophies, most in the league.
Like last season's Super Bowl, this one matches a veteran coach against a relative newcomer. The
difference is, unlike Bill Belichick, Chiefs coach Andy Reid, a head coach since 1999 with the Eagles, hasn't won a championship. He's considered one of the best coaches in history to not have won a Super Bowl. He's sixth all time in head coaching wins, and everyone ahead of him on the list has multiple trophies: Don Shula, George Halas, Belichick, Tom Landry, and Curly Lambeau. Reid has been to one, Super Bowl XXXIX, with Philadelphia in February 2005 and lost to New England, 24-21. Kyle Shanahan, meanwhile, is only 40 years old and is just in his third year as a head coach. If he wins Sunday, Shanahan would be the fourth head coach 40 or younger to capture the title. His dad, Mike Shanahan, won two with the Broncos in the 1990s. They are the first father-son duo to have been head coaches in the Super Bowl. It's happened just one other time across the four major sports, according to ESPN.com (Lester and Lynn Patrick in the NHL each coached in a Stanley Cup Final).
San Francisco got to Miami by dominating its competition in the playoffs, first downing the Vikings, 27-10, in the divisional round, before crushing the Packers, 37-20, in the conference championship. The 49ers started the regular season 8-0 and finished the second half 5-3, with losses versus Seattle and at the Ravens and Falcons, their lone loss to a bad team. They won at Seattle in Week 17 to grab the NFC's No. 1 seed. Kansas City had to stage comebacks to win its playoff games. First, the Chiefs fell behind the Texans 24-0 at home, but by halftime, they led 28-24. KC won 51-31, outscoring Houston an incredible 51-7 after the first quarter. In the AFC title game, the Chiefs got down to the
Titans 17-7 at home, but came back to win, 35-24. They began the year 4-0, then lost three of four, but finished the second half 7-1. Thanks to a loss by the Patriots in Week 17, they grabbed the conference's No. 2 seed. KC lost at home to the Colts, their one bad loss, and also lost at home against the Texans and Packers before losing at Tennessee. So KC's victories against Houston and Tennessee in the postseason were revenge wins.
The Chiefs are built more like a modern football team, with a strong passing game engineered by Reid, long lauded for his prowess on that side of the ball. The run game is almost an afterthought. Their passing offense, fueled by third-year starting quarterback Patrick Mahomes (in his second full year starting), finished the regular season fifth in yards per game. Their rushing offense came in 23rd, and overall, the offense ranked sixth. Mahomes completed 65.9 percent of his passes in the regular season with 26 TDs and just five picks. In the postseason, he's at 65.7 percent, and he has an amazing eight TDs and no interceptions. KC's main weapons are speedy receivers such as Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mercole Hardman, and tight end Travis Kelce, who led the team with 97 catches in the regular season. Damien Williams is the team's leading rusher with just 498 yards and five scores in the regular season. He had 17 carries for 45 yards and a TD in the AFC title game. Mahomes is not overly speedy but is kind of like an escape artist. He rushed for 53 yards and a TD against the Titans and put the game away by rolling to his right and launching -- across his body -- a beautiful, 60-yard TD pass to Watkins. Mahomes is able to get away with some passes almost no other QB can because of his arm strength.
The Niners, on the other hand, are built like a throwback football team, with a strong running game and complementary passing game. Shanahan is known for focusing on the rushing attack. Their offense, led by former Patriots backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo, was 13th in passing, second in rushing, and fourth overall. He completed 69.1 percent of his passes with 27 TDs and 13 INTs. In the postseason, he's at 63 percent and one TD and one pick. He famously only threw eight passes against the Packers. San Fran's main weapons are running backs Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman -- who
dislocated his shoulder against Green Bay but is good to go Sunday -- and receivers Emmanuel Sanders, Deebo Samuel, and tight end George Kittle. Mostert went for an incredible 220 rushing yards and four scores in the NFC championship and led the team in rushing in the regular season with 772 yards. Matt Breida came in second, but he's only gotten 23 carries over the past five games, and Mostert and Coleman are the main prongs in the rushing attack going into the big game. Like Kelce, Kittle is an elite tight end that paced the team with 85 catches in the regular season.
Defensively, San Francisco has the upper hand, coming in first in the league against the pass, 17th against the rush, and second overall. It also finished sixth in sacks, with ends Arik Armstead and Nick Bosa, a rookie, leading the way with 10 and nine, respectively. Outspoken veteran cornerback Richard Sherman led the unit with three picks and 11 passes defended.
KC's defense has held it back in recent seasons, but this year, it was strong against the pass, coming in eighth. Rookie safety and former Virginia star Juan Thornhill had a hand in that, starting every game he played in before getting hurt in Week 17. He tore his ACL and has been out since. KC's rushing D was 26th, and overall, it ranked 17th. The Chiefs finished 11th in sacks, with tackle Chris Jones and end Frank Clark setting the high marks with nine and eight, respectively. Safety Tyrann Mathieu recorded four picks (Thornhill had three) and defended 12 passes.
So who takes the championship? The up-and-coming, defense- and run-game oriented Niners or the Chiefs, who are centered on the passing game and have been good for a few seasons? Last year, they lost in the AFC title game. The Niners, meanwhile, went 4-12 last year, and Garoppolo missed all but one game with an injury. Do we see the veteran coach seeking his first Lombardi, Reid, finally breaking through, or will the youthful Shanahan steal the show?
Kansas City is favored by just 1.5 points. I find compelling reasons to pick both teams. If defense wins championships, San Fran is looking good. But in the modern NFL, we've seen this not always be true, and in the Super Bowl two seasons ago, the Eagles outscored the Patriots, 41-33. The Chiefs have a great offense, and Mahomes appears to be a once-in-a-generation talent. But they've had to rally both times in the playoffs, and if they get behind Sunday, will the Niners' defense be as forgiving? KC has more of a grizzled, veteran feel, and it feels like it is finally ready to take the next step. Meanwhile, it feels like the Niners are new to the scene, and maybe a year or two away from winning the Super Bowl.
But I'm actually picking San Francisco. I trust its strong pass defense to slow down KC just enough, and I'm not sure how successful the Chiefs will be in stopping the Niners' running game. And if they do slow it down, I think Garoppolo is more capable of playing well than KC would be of cobbling together a solid running game. I think with two weeks of preparation, the Niners will be able to put together a plan that is able to contain Mahomes. Reid has also been known to make some game-management mistakes in the past, and maybe that bites him again. But I think we are looking at a really close matchup that could go either way.
49ers 28, Chiefs 26
Offensively charged Kansas City battles defensive-minded San Francisco in the Super Bowl on Sunday. Whichever team can be a little stronger in its weakness will likely determine which one is this season's NFL champion.
The Chiefs have won one title, Super Bowl IV, played in January 1970, when they beat the Vikings, 23-7. They haven't appeared in it since. The 49ers are veterans of the big game, having won five and appeared in six, the last one coming in Super Bowl XLVII in February 2013, when the Ravens edged them 34-31. If San Francisco wins Sunday, it will tie New England and Pittsburgh with six Lombardi Trophies, most in the league.
Like last season's Super Bowl, this one matches a veteran coach against a relative newcomer. The
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San Francisco got to Miami by dominating its competition in the playoffs, first downing the Vikings, 27-10, in the divisional round, before crushing the Packers, 37-20, in the conference championship. The 49ers started the regular season 8-0 and finished the second half 5-3, with losses versus Seattle and at the Ravens and Falcons, their lone loss to a bad team. They won at Seattle in Week 17 to grab the NFC's No. 1 seed. Kansas City had to stage comebacks to win its playoff games. First, the Chiefs fell behind the Texans 24-0 at home, but by halftime, they led 28-24. KC won 51-31, outscoring Houston an incredible 51-7 after the first quarter. In the AFC title game, the Chiefs got down to the
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The Chiefs are built more like a modern football team, with a strong passing game engineered by Reid, long lauded for his prowess on that side of the ball. The run game is almost an afterthought. Their passing offense, fueled by third-year starting quarterback Patrick Mahomes (in his second full year starting), finished the regular season fifth in yards per game. Their rushing offense came in 23rd, and overall, the offense ranked sixth. Mahomes completed 65.9 percent of his passes in the regular season with 26 TDs and just five picks. In the postseason, he's at 65.7 percent, and he has an amazing eight TDs and no interceptions. KC's main weapons are speedy receivers such as Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mercole Hardman, and tight end Travis Kelce, who led the team with 97 catches in the regular season. Damien Williams is the team's leading rusher with just 498 yards and five scores in the regular season. He had 17 carries for 45 yards and a TD in the AFC title game. Mahomes is not overly speedy but is kind of like an escape artist. He rushed for 53 yards and a TD against the Titans and put the game away by rolling to his right and launching -- across his body -- a beautiful, 60-yard TD pass to Watkins. Mahomes is able to get away with some passes almost no other QB can because of his arm strength.
The Niners, on the other hand, are built like a throwback football team, with a strong running game and complementary passing game. Shanahan is known for focusing on the rushing attack. Their offense, led by former Patriots backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo, was 13th in passing, second in rushing, and fourth overall. He completed 69.1 percent of his passes with 27 TDs and 13 INTs. In the postseason, he's at 63 percent and one TD and one pick. He famously only threw eight passes against the Packers. San Fran's main weapons are running backs Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman -- who
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Defensively, San Francisco has the upper hand, coming in first in the league against the pass, 17th against the rush, and second overall. It also finished sixth in sacks, with ends Arik Armstead and Nick Bosa, a rookie, leading the way with 10 and nine, respectively. Outspoken veteran cornerback Richard Sherman led the unit with three picks and 11 passes defended.
KC's defense has held it back in recent seasons, but this year, it was strong against the pass, coming in eighth. Rookie safety and former Virginia star Juan Thornhill had a hand in that, starting every game he played in before getting hurt in Week 17. He tore his ACL and has been out since. KC's rushing D was 26th, and overall, it ranked 17th. The Chiefs finished 11th in sacks, with tackle Chris Jones and end Frank Clark setting the high marks with nine and eight, respectively. Safety Tyrann Mathieu recorded four picks (Thornhill had three) and defended 12 passes.
So who takes the championship? The up-and-coming, defense- and run-game oriented Niners or the Chiefs, who are centered on the passing game and have been good for a few seasons? Last year, they lost in the AFC title game. The Niners, meanwhile, went 4-12 last year, and Garoppolo missed all but one game with an injury. Do we see the veteran coach seeking his first Lombardi, Reid, finally breaking through, or will the youthful Shanahan steal the show?
Kansas City is favored by just 1.5 points. I find compelling reasons to pick both teams. If defense wins championships, San Fran is looking good. But in the modern NFL, we've seen this not always be true, and in the Super Bowl two seasons ago, the Eagles outscored the Patriots, 41-33. The Chiefs have a great offense, and Mahomes appears to be a once-in-a-generation talent. But they've had to rally both times in the playoffs, and if they get behind Sunday, will the Niners' defense be as forgiving? KC has more of a grizzled, veteran feel, and it feels like it is finally ready to take the next step. Meanwhile, it feels like the Niners are new to the scene, and maybe a year or two away from winning the Super Bowl.
But I'm actually picking San Francisco. I trust its strong pass defense to slow down KC just enough, and I'm not sure how successful the Chiefs will be in stopping the Niners' running game. And if they do slow it down, I think Garoppolo is more capable of playing well than KC would be of cobbling together a solid running game. I think with two weeks of preparation, the Niners will be able to put together a plan that is able to contain Mahomes. Reid has also been known to make some game-management mistakes in the past, and maybe that bites him again. But I think we are looking at a really close matchup that could go either way.
49ers 28, Chiefs 26
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