Now, I'll begin previewing the ACC Coastal Division beginning in the North, heading South, and then finishing with Virginia. So first up in this batch, Virginia Tech, Duke, and North Carolina.
Virginia Tech
Last season: In 2010, the Hokies finished 11-3 and 8-0 in the ACC. They began the year with a huge, nationally-televised game against Boise State on Labor Day at FedEx Field and lost a thrilling game, 33-30. They followed that game up with a shocking home loss to JMU, 21-16. Just when it looked like Tech would go into a tailspin, it ran off 10 straight wins to make the ACC title game where the Hokies downed Florida State, 44-33. In the Orange Bowl, Tech got stomped by Stanford, a surprising result given Tech's momentum and willingness to snap out of its funk against highly-ranked teams. Tyrod Taylor had always been a great running quarterback, but last year he really came into his own in the passing game, completing almost 60 percent of his passes for 2,743 yards and 24 touchdowns against only five interceptions. Darren Evans, Ryan Williams, and David Wilson all were formidable in the backfield, despite Ryan Williams being hurt. The Hokies defense was less stout than usual, giving up more points and yards than it had in the last several years.
Offense: Tech takes three hits by losing Taylor, Williams, and Evans to the NFL. Logan Thomas, who hails from Lynchburg (and actually from Brookville High School, a two-minute drive from my apartment) and is a redshirt sophomore, takes over under center. Thomas was recruited to Tech as a tight end. He is 6-foot-6, 245 pounds and has drawn comparisons to Cam Newton. The ACC is in trouble if he ends up being as effective as Newton. Thomas played in seven games last season and completed 12 of 25 passes for 107 yards. He is big and hard to bring down but not as fleet afoot as Newton or Taylor. Wilson returns to the backfield and is a shifty and speedy runner. Tech returns their top five receivers as well.
Defense: Defensive coordinator Bud Foster has said in the preseason he likes how his unit is coming together but the Hokies return only five players on this side of the ball after coming off an off year for a Tech defense. Only one starter is a senior, safety Eddie Whiely. The Hokies, however, do have one of the nation's premier cornerbacks in junior Jayron Hosley returning. The All-American snagged nine interceptions last season.
Schedule, notes, outlook: The schedule swings in favor of Tech significantly. The Hokies have a good chance of running the table even though this team might not be as good as last year's team. I used to be a critic of Tech's non-conference schedules but they had stepped it up in recent years by playing teams like USC, Boise State, LSU, and Alabama. This season, their non-conference schedule is cupcake-filled. The Hokies host Appalachian State and Arkanasas State and travel to East Carolina and Marshall. I know Virginia Tech lost to JMU last year, but I can't see the same thing happening this year with VT vs. App. St. Tech plays the Mountaineers in the first game of the season and the Hokies will be ready, unlike last year when JMU had the perfect storm of an exhausted and uninspired Tech team coming off a tough loss and short week playing in bad weather. I like Tech to roll in that game and most of its non-conference schedule. The Hokies need to watch out for ECU on the road. The Pirates can score a lot of points and knocked off the Hokies in 2008. In the ACC slate, Tech has to go to Georgia Tech but gets Miami and Boston College at home and avoids FSU altogether unless the two teams meet up in the ACC title game. I don't think Tech will have any problem winning 9-10 games. The key for the Hokies to get to 11 or 12 wins is how well the defense comes together and how effective Thomas will be at replacing Taylor. I would not be surprised to see the Hokies run the table in the regular season but I think 10-2 or 11-1 is more likely.
Duke
Last season: Duke finished 3-9 and 1-7 in the ACC, and was fifth in the Coastal, one spot ahead of Vireginia because Duke won a crazy 55-48 game over the Cavs. Duke opened with a win against Elon and then lost six straight before back-to-back wins over Navy and UVa. Duke lost nine games, but four were by single digits. Sean Renfree passed for 3,131 yards with a 61.4 completion rate but had more interceptions (17) than TDs (14). Duke did not have a great running game but Desmond Scott led the team with 530 yards and three touchdowns while backup QB Brandon Connette punched it across the goal line on eight occasions. Wide receivers Conner Vernon and Donovan Varner each had over 700 reception yards. The defense was quite putrid, giving up over 40 points four times. The Blue Devils even gave up 27 points to Elon.
Offense: Renfree returns to lead what should again be a great unit. Eight starters return. Renfree should improve on his TD-INT ratio. Duke returns all of its rushing production and Vernon and Varner are one of the best pairs of receivers in the ACC. Duke has to fill two holes on the offensive line and third-leading receiver Austin Kelly.
Defense: Like Wake Forest, I don't know if it can get much worse. Duke returns six starters on this side of the ball. The Devils lose their leading tackler but return their interception leader.
Schedule, notes, outlook: Duke draws Stanford, but also Richmond, Tulane, and Florida International in the non-conference schedule. The Devils can win two, maybe three of those games. In the ACC slate, Duke gets Wake Forest at home, definitely a winnable game, but has travel to UVa, which they have beaten three years in a row. Duke gets big games against Florida State and Virginia Tech at home if it can muster any fight. Duke has one of its best chances in years to make a bowl game but it won't happen if it can't win more than one ACC game and it might need to win as many as four to become bowl eligible. If the defense improves, Duke's got a shot, but I see 4-8 or 5-7 as being a more likely finish.
North Carolina
Last season: UNC finished 2010 8-5, 4-4 in the ACC, tied for fourth with Georgia Tech but the Yellow Jackets won the head-to-head matchup. UNC defeated Tennessee 30-27 in a wild overtime finish in the Music City Bowl. Throughout the year, the Tar Heels fought valiantly despite being down several players who were suspended as UNC worked through major NCAA violations. I thought UNC played really despite the circumstances. The Heels lost by only six in their opener to LSU and also lost by six (and the same score, 30-24) to Georgia Tech in their second game. UNC had a pair of great wins, beating Florida State 37-35 and pounding UVa 44-10 for its first win in Charlottesville since 1981. UNC had some bad games as well, needing a late TD to beat William & Mary, beating Duke by just five, losing by 23 to Miami and turning the ball over six times in a loss to Virginia Tech. It was an up and down roller coaster of a year both on and off the field for the Heels. Quarterback TJ Yates had a great year, completing 66..8 percent of his passes for 3,418 yards, 19 TDs, and 9 INTs. Johnny White, Shaun Draughn, and Anthony Elzy led a dynamic rushing attack and the defense held its own despite losing starters because of suspensions.
Offense: Yates is gone. Highly recruited sophomore Bryn Renner takes over under center. UNC loses White, Draughn, and Elzy, who accounted for a combined 1,653 yards and 15 TDs. Senior RB Ryan Houston is back from suspension and should help boost the backfield. UNC also loses its top two receivers in Dwight Jones and Erik Highsmith. UNC loses three tight ends as well, including Zack Pianalto, who is UNC's all-time receptions leader at tight end.
Defense: UNC should be really tough on defense because it returns seven starters to that unit, including its top two leading tacklers in Kevin Reddick and Zach Brown and also its sacks leader in Quinton Couples. Reddick and Brown, who are LBs, also combined for five INTs last season.
Schedule, notes, outlook: Everett Withers is the interim coach after Butch Davis was fired in late July. As I wrote in this blog, I'm not sure why UNC waited so long to fire Davis. I think the timing definitely hurt UNC's chances this season to be a successful team. The schedule is certainly favorable, however. Five of the Heels' first seven games are at home. Their only nonconference road game is at ECU, which won't be a cakewalk but they get Louisville, Rutgers, and James Madison at home. In the ACC, they get Miami at home and avoid Florida State. They do have to travel to Virginia Tech in November. Despite the forgiving schedule, questions swirl around UNC's football program. What else will come of the investigation? How much can Withers get out of his players? How will the QB and RB positions fare after losing solid contributors? All these questions will be answered this year as we begin to see how the Tar Heels respond to everything that has happened to them. I think the defense will keep them in a lot of games and UNC will get to 6-6 in the regular season.
Virginia Tech
Last season: In 2010, the Hokies finished 11-3 and 8-0 in the ACC. They began the year with a huge, nationally-televised game against Boise State on Labor Day at FedEx Field and lost a thrilling game, 33-30. They followed that game up with a shocking home loss to JMU, 21-16. Just when it looked like Tech would go into a tailspin, it ran off 10 straight wins to make the ACC title game where the Hokies downed Florida State, 44-33. In the Orange Bowl, Tech got stomped by Stanford, a surprising result given Tech's momentum and willingness to snap out of its funk against highly-ranked teams. Tyrod Taylor had always been a great running quarterback, but last year he really came into his own in the passing game, completing almost 60 percent of his passes for 2,743 yards and 24 touchdowns against only five interceptions. Darren Evans, Ryan Williams, and David Wilson all were formidable in the backfield, despite Ryan Williams being hurt. The Hokies defense was less stout than usual, giving up more points and yards than it had in the last several years.
Offense: Tech takes three hits by losing Taylor, Williams, and Evans to the NFL. Logan Thomas, who hails from Lynchburg (and actually from Brookville High School, a two-minute drive from my apartment) and is a redshirt sophomore, takes over under center. Thomas was recruited to Tech as a tight end. He is 6-foot-6, 245 pounds and has drawn comparisons to Cam Newton. The ACC is in trouble if he ends up being as effective as Newton. Thomas played in seven games last season and completed 12 of 25 passes for 107 yards. He is big and hard to bring down but not as fleet afoot as Newton or Taylor. Wilson returns to the backfield and is a shifty and speedy runner. Tech returns their top five receivers as well.
Defense: Defensive coordinator Bud Foster has said in the preseason he likes how his unit is coming together but the Hokies return only five players on this side of the ball after coming off an off year for a Tech defense. Only one starter is a senior, safety Eddie Whiely. The Hokies, however, do have one of the nation's premier cornerbacks in junior Jayron Hosley returning. The All-American snagged nine interceptions last season.
Schedule, notes, outlook: The schedule swings in favor of Tech significantly. The Hokies have a good chance of running the table even though this team might not be as good as last year's team. I used to be a critic of Tech's non-conference schedules but they had stepped it up in recent years by playing teams like USC, Boise State, LSU, and Alabama. This season, their non-conference schedule is cupcake-filled. The Hokies host Appalachian State and Arkanasas State and travel to East Carolina and Marshall. I know Virginia Tech lost to JMU last year, but I can't see the same thing happening this year with VT vs. App. St. Tech plays the Mountaineers in the first game of the season and the Hokies will be ready, unlike last year when JMU had the perfect storm of an exhausted and uninspired Tech team coming off a tough loss and short week playing in bad weather. I like Tech to roll in that game and most of its non-conference schedule. The Hokies need to watch out for ECU on the road. The Pirates can score a lot of points and knocked off the Hokies in 2008. In the ACC slate, Tech has to go to Georgia Tech but gets Miami and Boston College at home and avoids FSU altogether unless the two teams meet up in the ACC title game. I don't think Tech will have any problem winning 9-10 games. The key for the Hokies to get to 11 or 12 wins is how well the defense comes together and how effective Thomas will be at replacing Taylor. I would not be surprised to see the Hokies run the table in the regular season but I think 10-2 or 11-1 is more likely.
Duke
Last season: Duke finished 3-9 and 1-7 in the ACC, and was fifth in the Coastal, one spot ahead of Vireginia because Duke won a crazy 55-48 game over the Cavs. Duke opened with a win against Elon and then lost six straight before back-to-back wins over Navy and UVa. Duke lost nine games, but four were by single digits. Sean Renfree passed for 3,131 yards with a 61.4 completion rate but had more interceptions (17) than TDs (14). Duke did not have a great running game but Desmond Scott led the team with 530 yards and three touchdowns while backup QB Brandon Connette punched it across the goal line on eight occasions. Wide receivers Conner Vernon and Donovan Varner each had over 700 reception yards. The defense was quite putrid, giving up over 40 points four times. The Blue Devils even gave up 27 points to Elon.
Offense: Renfree returns to lead what should again be a great unit. Eight starters return. Renfree should improve on his TD-INT ratio. Duke returns all of its rushing production and Vernon and Varner are one of the best pairs of receivers in the ACC. Duke has to fill two holes on the offensive line and third-leading receiver Austin Kelly.
Defense: Like Wake Forest, I don't know if it can get much worse. Duke returns six starters on this side of the ball. The Devils lose their leading tackler but return their interception leader.
Schedule, notes, outlook: Duke draws Stanford, but also Richmond, Tulane, and Florida International in the non-conference schedule. The Devils can win two, maybe three of those games. In the ACC slate, Duke gets Wake Forest at home, definitely a winnable game, but has travel to UVa, which they have beaten three years in a row. Duke gets big games against Florida State and Virginia Tech at home if it can muster any fight. Duke has one of its best chances in years to make a bowl game but it won't happen if it can't win more than one ACC game and it might need to win as many as four to become bowl eligible. If the defense improves, Duke's got a shot, but I see 4-8 or 5-7 as being a more likely finish.
North Carolina
Last season: UNC finished 2010 8-5, 4-4 in the ACC, tied for fourth with Georgia Tech but the Yellow Jackets won the head-to-head matchup. UNC defeated Tennessee 30-27 in a wild overtime finish in the Music City Bowl. Throughout the year, the Tar Heels fought valiantly despite being down several players who were suspended as UNC worked through major NCAA violations. I thought UNC played really despite the circumstances. The Heels lost by only six in their opener to LSU and also lost by six (and the same score, 30-24) to Georgia Tech in their second game. UNC had a pair of great wins, beating Florida State 37-35 and pounding UVa 44-10 for its first win in Charlottesville since 1981. UNC had some bad games as well, needing a late TD to beat William & Mary, beating Duke by just five, losing by 23 to Miami and turning the ball over six times in a loss to Virginia Tech. It was an up and down roller coaster of a year both on and off the field for the Heels. Quarterback TJ Yates had a great year, completing 66..8 percent of his passes for 3,418 yards, 19 TDs, and 9 INTs. Johnny White, Shaun Draughn, and Anthony Elzy led a dynamic rushing attack and the defense held its own despite losing starters because of suspensions.
Offense: Yates is gone. Highly recruited sophomore Bryn Renner takes over under center. UNC loses White, Draughn, and Elzy, who accounted for a combined 1,653 yards and 15 TDs. Senior RB Ryan Houston is back from suspension and should help boost the backfield. UNC also loses its top two receivers in Dwight Jones and Erik Highsmith. UNC loses three tight ends as well, including Zack Pianalto, who is UNC's all-time receptions leader at tight end.
Defense: UNC should be really tough on defense because it returns seven starters to that unit, including its top two leading tacklers in Kevin Reddick and Zach Brown and also its sacks leader in Quinton Couples. Reddick and Brown, who are LBs, also combined for five INTs last season.
Schedule, notes, outlook: Everett Withers is the interim coach after Butch Davis was fired in late July. As I wrote in this blog, I'm not sure why UNC waited so long to fire Davis. I think the timing definitely hurt UNC's chances this season to be a successful team. The schedule is certainly favorable, however. Five of the Heels' first seven games are at home. Their only nonconference road game is at ECU, which won't be a cakewalk but they get Louisville, Rutgers, and James Madison at home. In the ACC, they get Miami at home and avoid Florida State. They do have to travel to Virginia Tech in November. Despite the forgiving schedule, questions swirl around UNC's football program. What else will come of the investigation? How much can Withers get out of his players? How will the QB and RB positions fare after losing solid contributors? All these questions will be answered this year as we begin to see how the Tar Heels respond to everything that has happened to them. I think the defense will keep them in a lot of games and UNC will get to 6-6 in the regular season.
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