College picks

Last week, I went 7-1 in college picks and 6-3 in my first weekend for picking NFL games. My record stands at 23-8 overall.

It’s a big weekend for the ACC as four conference teams host ranked BCS schools from other conferences, so this is a chance for the ACC to gain some much-needed respect. And of course, this weekend is the South’s Oldest Rivalry—Virginia vs. North Carolina. I'll pick some Sunday NFL games later.

Saturday

No. 18 West Virginia at Maryland, Noon ESPNU

ACC’s Chance for Respect Game No. 1. This is a tough game to call. At WVU, I’d give the Mountaineers the edge, but I think the Terrapins will be tough at home. Maryland last played Sept. 5 at home and beat a depleted Miami team with an impressive offense 32-24. The Mountaineers have yet to be challenged. They’ve crushed both Marshall and Norfolk State at home. I think this game will be closer than lots of people think, but I’m just not sure if Maryland is ready to win a game like this.

West Virginia 34, Maryland 31

No. 21 Auburn at Clemson, Noon ABC

ACC’s Chance for Respect Game No. 2. The defending national champion Auburn Tigers are begging to lose. They have the nation’s longest winning streak but in the past two weeks, there have been some close calls at home. The Tigers had to score 14 points in the final minutes two weeks ago to beat Utah State and then last week, held Mississippi State at the goal line to preserve a victory. The other Tigers from Clemson, meanwhile, were down at the half to Troy two weeks ago and then squeaked by Wofford 35-29. I can’t in good conscience pick Clemson in this one after its first two performances.

Auburn 38, Clemson 27

Kansas at Georgia Tech, 12:30 p.m. ESPN3.com

How many points and yards are the Yellow Jackets going to roll up on the Jayhawks? Kansas has proven it score points—a combined 87 in its first two games of the season—but also can give them up—a combined 66 in its first two games to McNeese State and Northern Illinois. The bad news for Kansas? The Yellow Jackets have been rolling on offense thus far, to the tune of 63 points against Western Carolina and then 49 vs. Middle Tennessee. Georgia Tech will be looking for revenge in this one—the Jayhawks dropped the Jackets in Kansas last season.

Georgia Tech 55, Kansas 31

Duke at Boston College, 12:30 p.m., ESPN3.com

The Somebody-Has-To-Win-It Bowl. Both of these teams have looked pretty bad in the first two weeks. Duke lost to Richmond and then was crushed by Stanford while BC lost to Northwestern and was blown out by Central Florida last week. The Eagles’ offensive coordinator has taken a leave of absence for health reasons and the BC offense has been bad already. I’m going to give a slight edge to BC because the Eagles are at home and it’s Duke. Duke seems unable to take that next step and get competitive in the ACC. But it’ll be close.

Boston College 17, Duke 16

No. 15 Michigan State at Notre Dame, 3:30 p.m. NBC

Lou Holtz said after Notre Dame’s incredible loss last week to Michigan he thinks the Irish will bounce back and win nine to 10 games. Really? I think coach is just way too fond of his former team. The Spartans have won six of their past seven games at Notre Dame. The Irish have lost to South Florida and Michigan. MSU is probably the toughest opponent yet for Notre Dame. The Spartans won this game last season on a fake field goal and I expect this one to be close, too.

Michigan State 31, Notre Dame 28

Tennessee at No. 16 Florida, 3:30 p.m. CBS

The Gators defense has been nasty so far, giving up just three points in two games. Granted, those wins were against UAB and Florida Atlantic. Impressive nevertheless. I think the Gators ‘D’ has taken on the persona of its fiery new head coach Will Muschamp, the former Texas defensive coordinator. Tennessee is trying to get back to competitiveness in the SEC and this is the Vols’ first test of the season. Tennessee took care of Montana and Cincinnati with relative ease in Knoxville in its first two games. Florida in The Swamp is a different ballgame.

Florida 34, Tennessee 16

Arkansas State at No. 13 Virginia Tech, 4 p.m. ESPN3.com

So the Hokies went from absolutely pounding Appalachian State to squeaking by East Carolina last week. Where’s the consistency? I think the result of this one will fall somewhere in the middle. Hokies roll.

Virginia Tech 49, Arkansas State 14

No. 17 Ohio State at Miami, 7:30 p.m. ESPN

ACC’s Chance for Respect Game No. 3. This is an interesting matchup. Miami has had two weeks to get ready for this one and has gotten some players back from suspension. The Hurricanes will have to be better on defense than they were against Maryland on Sept. 5 to win. Ohio State, with a new, young head coach, is ripe for an upset. Toledo put a big scare in the Buckeyes last week in Columbus as OSU won only by five, 27-22. My gut is telling me Ohio State in a close one but I think it is wishful thinking that has me actually hoping the ACC can step up and win one of these games.

Miami 24, Ohio State 21

No. 1 Oklahoma at No. 5 Florida State, 8 p.m. ABC

ACC’s Chance for Respect Game No. 4. Florida State has run roughshod over its first two opponents this season. The Seminoles have beaten Louisiana-Monroe and Charleston Southern by a combined score of 96-10 in Tallahassee. But the Sooners are a different animal. Oklahoma has had two weeks to get ready for this game and I expect the Oklahoma passing offense to be clicking, led by quarterback Landry Jones and receiver Ryan Broyles. Last year, FSU fell at Oklahoma 47-17. I think this one will be close, but still a pretty comfortable win for the Sooners, who are trying to improve on a subpar record in recent road games.

Oklahoma 38, Florida State 24

The South’s Oldest Rivalry

Virginia at North Carolina, 3:30 p.m. ESPNU

This is the 116^th meeting between these two schools and the hate runs deep. Lots of fans on both sides claim this to be the biggest game of the season, football-wise at least. UNC of course has a bigger rivalry with Duke in basketball but there are lots of Virginia fans who hate UNC more than Virginia Tech. The series is very even overall—UNC has a slight 57-54-4 edge but leads 29-12-3 in Chapel Hill. Virginia has won its last two games on the road against UNC, 16-3 in 2009 and 22-20 in 2007. In 2005 at UNC, Virginia lost a pathetic 7-5 game a week after beating No. 4 Florida State in Charlottesville. Last year, the Heels, depleted by NCAA sanctions and suspensions, smoked the Hoos 44-10 in Charlottesville for their first win there since 1981. Virginia had won 14 straight against UNC in Scott Stadium before that blowout loss.

North Carolina, like Virginia, is 2-0 with wins over James Madison (42-10) and Rutgers (24-22). Last week, the Heels beat the Scarlet Knights despite a minus five turnover margin. For the second consecutive game, sophomore quarterback Bryn Renner was impressive, completing 20 of 26 passes for 273 yards and a touchdown. However, three of his six incomplete passes were interceptions. Against JMU, Renner was an incredible 22 of 23 for 277 yards and two touchdowns. The only incompletion was an interception so he has thrown four already this season. Hopefully, this is good news for the UVa secondary, which has been pretty stingy thus far. True freshman cornerback Demetrious Nicholson had an interception against William & Mary and Rijo Walker had one last week against Indiana. Virginia ranks 21^st in the nation in pass defense so far, giving up 146 yards per game, but let’s keep in mind W&M QB Mike Paulus was awful in the opener and contributed a lot to that statistic.

UNC’s defense, meanwhile, has yet to create a turnover. UVa QB Michael Rocco has thrown two interceptions, both against Indiana, and he threw one vs. UNC last year, so the Heels will be hungry to get a pick. The UNC defense has to be pretty solid overall to give up only 22 points to Rutgers after giving them five turnovers, or essentially five extra chances to score points.

UNC’s rushing offense has gained 158 yards per game. Giovani Bernard has four rushing touchdowns, and gained 81 yards vs. Rutgers and 64 vs. JMU. Virginia’s rushing defense has given up 98 yards per game, and Indiana accounted for most of that, going for 148 last week.

I think the key to the game will be Virginia’s rush defense. It was the worst unit on the team last year but has shown early signs of improvement this season. If UNC struggles to run, as it seems to have during the first two weeks, UVa has a chance. Renner will probably have lots of completions and a fair amount of yards, but hopefully the experienced Wahoo secondary can bait the sophomore into making some errant throws. If Virginia slows down the run, it will put more pressure on Renner to win the game, and then the Cavaliers can have a real chance at the upset.

Also, if Rocco can stay out of trouble, manage the game, and not throw any interceptions, Virginia’s chances of winning go up. Hopefully, offensive coordinator Bill Lazor will use a game plan similar to the one used against W&M, where he slowly built the confidence of Rocco. On the contrary, last week, Rocco went deep on the game’s first play and was picked off.

I think UNC, though, will be able to rattle Rocco somewhat, and the Virginia offense will struggle again to score touchdowns. The UVa defense will do a good job of keeping the game within reach, but can only hold on for so long. I look for UVa’s defense to come away with a turnover or two, but I don’t think it’ll be enough. I like UNC to win, but Virginia will look much improved over last year’s drubbing at the hands of the Tar Heels.

North Carolina 28, Virginia 20