Virginia season preview

Last season: The Cavaliers finished 4-8 overall, 1-7 in the ACC, which placed them last in the Coastal Division. The Cavs started off well, crushing Richmond, barely losing on the road to USC, then pounding VMI. A game against Florida State at home that many thought Virginia had a chance in turned sour quickly. The Seminoles went up 27-0 at halftime and won 34-14. The Cavs had a mostly lackluster performance the next week in a 33-21 loss at Georgia Tech then returned to Charlottesville to face UNC. The Tar Heels had not won in Charlottesville since 1981, but humiliated the Cavs 44-10. Virginia took advantage of a terrible Eastern Michigan team next week at home in a 48-21 win to get to 3-4 overall. Next week at home against Miami, Virginia played its best game of the year, knocking QB Jacory Harris out of the game and hanging on to beat the No. 22 Hurricanes 24-19 after going up 24-0. On the road at Duke in their ninth game of the season, the Wahoos had a chance to get to 5-4 by beating the lowly Blue Devils, whom they hadn’t beaten since 2007. Virginia had multiple chances to close out the game with a victory but gave up a 91-yard scoring drive to Duke in the final two minutes to lose 55-48. The Cavs played both Maryland and Boston College tough in their next two games but lost both and were waxed by Virginia Tech in Blacksburg to close the season. Marc Verica started at quarterback for the Cavs and had his moments like he did in 2008, but was mostly inconsistent, throwing 14 TDs and 14 INTs. Keith Payne was a pleasant redemption story at running back, gaining over 700 yards while piling up 14 TDs. Perry Jones supplied good variation at running back by being speedier, while Payne was a bruiser. Jones racked up 646 yards. Kris Burd, Dontrelle Inman, and Matt Snyder were a formidable trio at wide receiver. Virginia’s offense was the best it had been since 2005. It wasn't the problem. The problem was UVa’s defense. The defense was the worst I remember seeing in my time following Virginia football, which goes back to about 1999. The Cavs gave up 28.3 points and 396 yards per game. The rushing ‘D’ was particularly disturbing, as it gave up over 200 yards per game. The game against Duke last year when the Cavs’ defense gave up 55 points is a prime example of how bad the defense was at times last season.

Offense: The offense returns eight starters. The Hoos don’t have an experienced quarterback starting but hopefully they will have someone who throws less picks than Verica. Sophomore Michael Rocco, from Lynchburg, was named the starter earlier this week (as an aside, Virginia Tech’s starter, Logan Thomas, is also from Lynchburg – pretty rare that two FBS quarterbacks from the same city are starting for the two major programs in the state). Redshirt sophomore Ross Metheny will be the backup and scrambler David Watford, a true freshman and cousin of former UVa QB Marques Hagans, is expected to see some time under center in certain situations. Rocco was 13 for 25 for 143 yards, one TD, and two INTs last year. Metheny threw for 171 yards on 13 of 17 passing and had three TDs and one INT. Jones, a junior, returns to the backfield and UVa is expected to play lots of freshmen at different times at running back. Burd returns to the receiving corps as does Snyder and here again, Virginia is expected to play lots of freshmen at WR. In fact, first-years Dominique Terrell and Darius Jennings are on the two-deep at WR on the depth chart this week.

Defense: Like the defenses for Duke and Wake Forest, you have to figure it will improve for Virginia. There are nine starters returning on that side of the ball and it will be the second year adapting to the 4-3 scheme and coordinator Jim Reid. I will honestly pull my hair out if the unit is worse than last season. The Cavs have Nick Jenkins and Matt Conrath, both experienced seniors, manning the middle of the D-line. Jake Snyder, a sophomore, and Cam Johnson, a senior, are the defensive ends. Steve Greer and LaRoy Reynolds return to bolster what should be a strong linebacking corps. The secondary is laden with experience as well. Chase Minnifield, regarded as one of the best cornerbacks in the ACC, returns as do safeties Rodney McLeod and Corey Mosley. True freshman Demetrius Nicholson, who the coaches have been raving about in camp, is starting at the other cornerback position. I think it would be a chore for the defense to be worse than last year. It is bound to improve – the question is how much. If the defense can keep the team in games – unlike last year when the reverse was often true – that could go a long way toward UVa making a bowl game for the first time since 2007. The Cavs will be finding their feet a little on offense with a new QB and could struggle at times. If the defense isn’t a lot better than last year, the Hoos will be in trouble.

Schedule, notes, outlook: The schedule is somewhat forgiving, which is a good thing for a program trying to recover from three losing seasons out of the last four. The non-conference slate includes William & Mary, which beat the Cavs two years ago in Charlottesville (the Hoos play the Tribe on Saturday at home), Southern Miss at home, a strong opponent out of CUSA, Idaho out of the WAC at home, and Indiana, which has been one of the worst Big Ten teams recently, on the road. The ACC schedule is a bit tougher. The Cavs have to go to UNC, Miami, Maryland, and Florida State. They draw Georgia Tech, N.C. State, Duke, and Virginia Tech at home. Many fans are excited about the possibility of UVa being at least 6-6 and making a bowl game. UVa has a good chance of reaching that mark, but I'm remaining cautiously optimistic -- which is a trait one develops very well being a Virginia fan. There are a lot of returners on this team, but the squad was not good last year. The defense really concerns me. With one QB or another, I think the offense will be as good or better than last year. The key will be the development of the defense. There is a lot of fresh talent on this team. It will be interesting to see how Mike London goes about using his first recruiting class, which was highly regarded and ranked in the top 25 by most recruiting services. Will he redshirt lots of players, throw them in the fire early Saturday against the Tribe, or cave in after four games and play lots of freshmen in case the upperclassmen aren't getting it done and the team is struggling? The answers to these questions have ramifications for this season and following seasons. It would be terrific for UVa to go to a bowl game. It means more practices and finally shows some tangible progress for the team, which could be big in recruiting. Making a bowl game could keep the momentum going that London has built up on the recruiting trail. Another losing season, while not incredibly detrimental to the program, would definitely put a dent in what London is trying to accomplish and set back progress a year or two. As long as UVa can get to 5-7 (one more win that last year), two wins in the ACC (one more conference win than last year), and show continual improvement throughout the season, progress has been made and I think fans should be satisfied (of course, what fans should be and actually are is two different things). For a prediction, I think UVa stands a good chance of getting to 6-6, but I think 5-7 is a more real possibility.