I've put the Atlantic Division to bed. I didn't even really think of an overall order of finish before starting this project, but it looks like I settled on something like this for the Atlantic (assuming teams' ACC records are on par with their overall ones): Florida State (11-1 or 10-2), Clemson (9-3 or 8-4), N.C. State (9-3 or 8-4; key game is at Clemson), Boston College (7-5 or 6-6), Wake Forest (6-6 or 5-7), and Maryland (4-8 or 3-9). Now, on to the three northernmost team in the Coastal Divison, excluding Virginia, which I will profile last.
Virginia Tech
Last year: The Hokies went 11-3 last season with an ACC regular-season record of 7-1 to win the Coastal. The Hokies toughed out some close wins over East Carolina (17-10), Miami (38-35), Duke (14-10), and North Carolina (24-21). Virginia Tech also blew out some teams, including perennial FCS power Appalachian State (66-13), Marshall (30-10), Wake Forest (38-17), and Virginia (38-0). There were two problems Virginia Tech couldn't solve, one old and one new. The new one was beating Clemson. The Tigers had their way with the Hokies twice -- once to the tune of 23-3 in Blacksburg and then 38-10 in Charlotte at the ACC title game. The old problem was winning a BCS game. Virginia Tech, despite not winning the ACC, earned an at-large bid to the Sugar Bowl in which it lost a hard-fought 23-20 overtime contest to Michigan. David Wilson, a speedy senior chosen by the Giants with the final pick in the first round of the NFL draft, led the Hokies' ground attack with 1,709 yards and nine touchdowns. Josh Oglesby had 371 yards and six touchdowns as his backup. Logan Thomas, then a sophomore, really came into his own at the quarterback position once he got comfortable. The 6-foot-6, 260-pound bruiser ran over and passed over defenses. Thomas, of Lynchburg, completed 59.8 percent of his passes for 3,013 yards and 18 touchdowns while also running for 11 touchdowns (most on the team) and 469 yards. A pair of receivers, Jarrett Boykin and Danny Coale, caught over 1,600 yards worth of balls for eight touchdowns. The defense tallied 16 interceptions and was its usual stingy self, giving up 17.6 points per game.
Offense: Thomas is back and might be the best player in the ACC and is being talked about in some circles as a dark horse contender for the Heisman Trophy. Unfortunately for him, the rest of the offense is a project. The offensive line lost four players who started every game the past two seasons. Only Andrew Miller, a senior center, is back on the line. Boykin and Coale, who left Tech as the No. 1 and 2 leaders in receptions all-time at the school, are gone. D.J. Coles and Marcus Davis, who combined for 66 catches and eight touchdowns last year, are capable of filling the void, but to what extent we will have to wait and see. Both Wilson and Oglesby are gone as well. Freshman Michael Holmes earned the starting nod at running back. Tech does return a senior fullback in Joey Phillips. Thomas might be the best quarterback in the ACC, but how well the rest of the offense matures will go a long way in determining how good the Hokies are on that side of the ball.
Defense: The Tech defense is a different story from the offense: this unit returns eight starters. The entire defensive line, complete with backups, are back. Junior James Gayle returns at end after recording seven sacks last season. One linebacker, Barquell Rivers, and two players from the secondary, Jayron Hosley and Eddie Whitley, are gone. Bruce Taylor, one of the best linebackers in the ACC, is back after missing six games last season with a foot injury. Kyle Fuller, who led the team with 14.5 tackles for loss and is also the top returning pick man with two, is back and will start at one corner while the Hokies are moving Antone Exum from safety to the other corner. Exum led the team in tackles last season. The safeties will be young, with sophomores Detrick Bonner and Kyshoen Jarrett likely getting to start. The front seven should be very strong for Tech. The secondary is a little young and Exum will be learning a new position, but they should be OK given the experience of the rest of the defense.
Schedule, notes, outlook: A stumble at Pittsburgh or Cincinnati (at FedEx Field, a defacto home game for Tech) is possible, but I expect the Hokies to roll through their non-conference slate, which also includes Austin Peay and Bowling Green, with no real problems. The ACC schedule is favorable, too. The Hokies' two toughest opponents, Georgia Tech and Florida State, are coming to Lane Stadium, FSU on a Thursday night. A couple other potential hang ups are road games at Clemson and at Miami in the middle of the season. Tech avoids playing an up-and-coming N.C. State squad and also doesn't play Maryland or Wake Forest from the Atlantic. That Nov. 8 matchup against Florida State on Thursday night could be huge. Both teams could have perfect or near-perfect records and Lane Stadium is always hopping for Thursday night games. Virginia Tech opens this coming Monday with Georgia Tech at home. The triple option offense of the Yellow Jackets could give some problems to the young back end of the Hokies' defense, but with ample time to prepare, which seems to be one of the ways to beat Georgia Tech, I think the Hokies will take care of business in the opener. The offense this year will be carried by Thomas. The offensive line is almost all new, but luckily, Thomas is a big guy and can take the pounding if defenses find their way into the backfield a lot. The defense will be very good -- it can probably hold opponents to under 15 points per game -- and should give the offense time to help it find itself. The schedule is favorable, and I expect the Hokies to go 11-1 or 10-2 and challenge for the ACC title again.
Duke
Last year: The Blue Devils went 3-9 and recorded a 1-7 ACC record, last in the Coastal. They began the year losing 23-21 to a bad Richmond team and getting pounded 44-14 by Stanford. They then rebounded for three straight wins to actually get to a winning record: 20-19 over Boston College, 48-27 over Tulane, and 31-27 over Florida International. Duke failed to keep the momentum going, however, losing the rest of its games, sometimes in excruciating fashion for a team desperately trying to just get to a bowl game -- any bowl game (last one was end of the 1994 season). The Devils lost 24-23 to Wake Forest, 14-10 to Virginia Tech, 31-21 to Virginia, and 38-31 to Georgia Tech. Senior quarterback Sean Renfree led the offense, becoming a more capable passer and limiting his mistakes. He completed 65 percent of his passes for 2,891 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Juwan Thompson and Desmond Scott were Duke's best running backs, with Thompson gaining 457 yards and seven touchdowns and Scott rushing for 367 yards and a pair of scores. Each sported yards per carry averages of over four yards but they just didn't get the ball much as Duke's offense under coach David Cutcliffe has focused on passing. Conner Vernon (70 catches, 956 yards, six TDs) and Donovan Varner (61 receptions, 713 yards, three TDs) filled up the stat sheet at receiver. Duke's offense moved the ball pretty well, as it has in recent seasons. The problem was stopping teams -- opponents rushed for 180 yards and passed for 244 yards more per game as Duke gave up 31.2 points per game.
Offense: Duke has seven starters returning to this unit, which should once again outperform the defense. Renfree, three lineman, Thompson, Scott, and Vernon are back. Tight end Cooper Helfet, who caught 43 passes for 395 yards and four touchdowns, graduated. Varner is the biggest missing piece but I imagine in this offense, Duke will have players capable of filling his shoes. One of them won't be Brandon Braxton, a junior who had 40 receptions last season, as he is switching to safety.
Defense: Duke has eight starters returning to the defense, nine if you count Braxton who is moving to safety. Easily the biggest loss on this side of the ball is All-American safety Matt Daniels, who was in on 126 tackles and had two interceptions in 2011. After him, however, Duke does return several of its leading playmakers on defense. Safety Walt Canty had 87 tackles last year, four tackles for loss, and a pick. Linebacker Kelby Brown had 65 tackles and led the team with seven tackles for loss. The Blue Devils run a 4-2-5 scheme and are trying to improve their run defense, which they did last season from over 200 yards per game in 2010 to 180 yards per game last season. Even with the loss of Daniels, there is lots of returning experience on the defense. If it can raise its level of play somewhat to match the offense, Duke could have a fighting chance in many games this season.
Schedule, notes, outlook: Duke's non-conference slate kicks off the season with four straight games. Duke faces Florida International at home, Stanford on the road, and N.C. Central and Memphis back at home. Florida International was a bowl team that Duke beat last year and the Blue Devils should beat N.C. Central and Memphis. Duke has the potential to be 3-1 heading into the ACC slate, meaning it would need three conference wins to become eligible for that all-elusive bowl game. The ACC schedule is pretty daunting, however. Duke does not have to play N.C. State in the Atlantic, but also misses out on possible wins against weaker teams Boston College (which it beat last year) and Maryland. Duke has to play at Florida State and at Virginia Tech. Duke also draws a date with Clemson. Everything hinges on that defense. If it can give the offense some support, Duke could go bowling. The ACC schedule is pretty tough. Duke will probably need to go 3-1 in the non-conference to have a shot at a bowl game. Two wins would mean the Devils would need to go .500 in the ACC and I can't see that happening. I say Duke goes 4-8 or 5-7 this season.
North Carolina
Last year: UNC went 7-6 overall last season and 3-5 in the ACC, placing them fourth in the Coastal Division. The Tar Heels lost to Missouri, 41-24, in the Independence Bowl. They started out the year 5-1, but then stumbled to a 2-5 record the rest of the way. They had some close wins -- 24-22 over Rutgers, 14-7 over Louisville -- and some close losses -- 35-28 to Georgia Tech, 30-24 to Miami, and 24-21 to Virginia Tech. Everett Withers filled in as interim coach after coach Butch Davis was fired about a month before the season started because of the ongoing NCAA investigation at North Carolina. In his first year starting, quarterback Bryn Renner completed 68.3 percent of his passes for 3,086 yards and 26 touchdowns (a school record). Another first-year starter last season, Giovani Bernard, led the ground attack, rushing for 1,253 yards and 13 touchdowns on the way to freshman All-American accolades. Dwight Jones led the receivers with 85 catches for 1,196 yards and 12 scores. The offense had no trouble putting up points and yards -- except for one odd shutout loss to N.C. State -- but the defense was up and down, with a good outing one week and a bad one the next. It ended up allowing 24.8 points per game.
Offense: Larry Fedora, formerly the head coach at Southern Miss, was hired in the offseason to replace Withers. He brings a high-tempo spread offense to Chapel Hill. The unit returns seven starters. Renner, a junior, is back and is poised to build on a very successful sophomore campaign in which he was the most efficient signal caller in the ACC and 10th in the nation in that category. Bernard, just a sophomore, is also back and is perhaps the best running back in the ACC. He is also a threat to catch passes, as he hauled in 45 for 362 yards and a touchdown last season. A.J. Blue, a bruising 6-foot-2, 225-pound junior, will probably have more of a role this season in his second year switching from quarterback to running back because Ryan Houston, who had the second-most rushing yards last year with 325, has graduated. Blue gained 138 yards last year with a 4.2 yards per carry average. Jones is gone from the receiving corps and that is a big blow as he accounted for nearly a third of North Carolina's receiving yardage and nearly half of its receiving touchdowns. Senior Erik Highsmith is the leading returnee in that group, tallying 51 receptions for 726 yards and five touchdowns last season. Jeheranie Boyd, also a senior, has only caught 40 passes in his career (14 last year) but 30 percent have gone for touchdowns. North Carolina returns four to the offensive line. It endured some injuries in the offseason, but everyone is expected to be able to start the opener.
Defense: The defense returns five starters and is switching from a 4-3 to a 4-2-5. Senior linebacker Kevin Riddick leads the unit as a preseason All-American. In 2011, he recorded 71 tackles, six tackles for loss, and one sack. Another senior, defensive tackle Slyvester Williams, flourished in his first season at North Carolina last year. After playing two seasons of community college football in Kansas, Williams was a breakout star last year while posting 54 tackles, seven tackles for loss, one interception and three pass breakups. In the secondary, junior Tre Boston is back at safety. He was third on the team last year with 70 tackles and tied for the team lead in interceptions (three) with the departed Zach Brown.
Schedule, notes, outlook: Because of NCAA sanctions, the Tar Heels will not be eligible for a bowl game this season. Whether that makes them play less inspired or puts some extra fire in their belly because they have nothing to play for but the regular season, we'll have to wait and see. North Carolina's schedule is pretty favorable. It could win all four of its non-conference games: Elon, East Carolina, and Idaho at home and Louisville on the road. In the ACC, the Tar Heels don't have to play the two favorites in the Atlantic Division -- Florida State and Clemson. And the two favorites in UNC's division -- Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech -- have to visit Chapel Hill, as does N.C. State, a team with high aspirations from the Atlantic. A Thursday night contest at Virginia in the "Oldest Rivalry in the South" in November could be big if both teams are playing well. The Cavaliers have not beaten the Tar Heels since 2009. This year will be about adjusting for UNC. Fedora brings new styles and schemes to Chapel Hill. The offense was good last year and will probably be good this year once it gets a few games to adjust. The opponents aren't that tough so they are good games for the offense to find itself. Remember, winning is important, but North Carolina can't play in a bowl game so making something easy for the offense in order to win might not happen. Fedora might instead err on the side of letting the offense make mistakes so it can eventually pick up the offense faster and be ahead of the game next year. The defense could take a little longer to acclimate. It was not the strong suit last season and returns just five players. North Carolina might have to win some games in shootouts. The easy schedule works in its favor, however, and I think North Carolina will turn some heads and go 8-4 or 9-3.
Offense: Duke has seven starters returning to this unit, which should once again outperform the defense. Renfree, three lineman, Thompson, Scott, and Vernon are back. Tight end Cooper Helfet, who caught 43 passes for 395 yards and four touchdowns, graduated. Varner is the biggest missing piece but I imagine in this offense, Duke will have players capable of filling his shoes. One of them won't be Brandon Braxton, a junior who had 40 receptions last season, as he is switching to safety.
Defense: Duke has eight starters returning to the defense, nine if you count Braxton who is moving to safety. Easily the biggest loss on this side of the ball is All-American safety Matt Daniels, who was in on 126 tackles and had two interceptions in 2011. After him, however, Duke does return several of its leading playmakers on defense. Safety Walt Canty had 87 tackles last year, four tackles for loss, and a pick. Linebacker Kelby Brown had 65 tackles and led the team with seven tackles for loss. The Blue Devils run a 4-2-5 scheme and are trying to improve their run defense, which they did last season from over 200 yards per game in 2010 to 180 yards per game last season. Even with the loss of Daniels, there is lots of returning experience on the defense. If it can raise its level of play somewhat to match the offense, Duke could have a fighting chance in many games this season.
Schedule, notes, outlook: Duke's non-conference slate kicks off the season with four straight games. Duke faces Florida International at home, Stanford on the road, and N.C. Central and Memphis back at home. Florida International was a bowl team that Duke beat last year and the Blue Devils should beat N.C. Central and Memphis. Duke has the potential to be 3-1 heading into the ACC slate, meaning it would need three conference wins to become eligible for that all-elusive bowl game. The ACC schedule is pretty daunting, however. Duke does not have to play N.C. State in the Atlantic, but also misses out on possible wins against weaker teams Boston College (which it beat last year) and Maryland. Duke has to play at Florida State and at Virginia Tech. Duke also draws a date with Clemson. Everything hinges on that defense. If it can give the offense some support, Duke could go bowling. The ACC schedule is pretty tough. Duke will probably need to go 3-1 in the non-conference to have a shot at a bowl game. Two wins would mean the Devils would need to go .500 in the ACC and I can't see that happening. I say Duke goes 4-8 or 5-7 this season.
North Carolina
Last year: UNC went 7-6 overall last season and 3-5 in the ACC, placing them fourth in the Coastal Division. The Tar Heels lost to Missouri, 41-24, in the Independence Bowl. They started out the year 5-1, but then stumbled to a 2-5 record the rest of the way. They had some close wins -- 24-22 over Rutgers, 14-7 over Louisville -- and some close losses -- 35-28 to Georgia Tech, 30-24 to Miami, and 24-21 to Virginia Tech. Everett Withers filled in as interim coach after coach Butch Davis was fired about a month before the season started because of the ongoing NCAA investigation at North Carolina. In his first year starting, quarterback Bryn Renner completed 68.3 percent of his passes for 3,086 yards and 26 touchdowns (a school record). Another first-year starter last season, Giovani Bernard, led the ground attack, rushing for 1,253 yards and 13 touchdowns on the way to freshman All-American accolades. Dwight Jones led the receivers with 85 catches for 1,196 yards and 12 scores. The offense had no trouble putting up points and yards -- except for one odd shutout loss to N.C. State -- but the defense was up and down, with a good outing one week and a bad one the next. It ended up allowing 24.8 points per game.
Offense: Larry Fedora, formerly the head coach at Southern Miss, was hired in the offseason to replace Withers. He brings a high-tempo spread offense to Chapel Hill. The unit returns seven starters. Renner, a junior, is back and is poised to build on a very successful sophomore campaign in which he was the most efficient signal caller in the ACC and 10th in the nation in that category. Bernard, just a sophomore, is also back and is perhaps the best running back in the ACC. He is also a threat to catch passes, as he hauled in 45 for 362 yards and a touchdown last season. A.J. Blue, a bruising 6-foot-2, 225-pound junior, will probably have more of a role this season in his second year switching from quarterback to running back because Ryan Houston, who had the second-most rushing yards last year with 325, has graduated. Blue gained 138 yards last year with a 4.2 yards per carry average. Jones is gone from the receiving corps and that is a big blow as he accounted for nearly a third of North Carolina's receiving yardage and nearly half of its receiving touchdowns. Senior Erik Highsmith is the leading returnee in that group, tallying 51 receptions for 726 yards and five touchdowns last season. Jeheranie Boyd, also a senior, has only caught 40 passes in his career (14 last year) but 30 percent have gone for touchdowns. North Carolina returns four to the offensive line. It endured some injuries in the offseason, but everyone is expected to be able to start the opener.
Defense: The defense returns five starters and is switching from a 4-3 to a 4-2-5. Senior linebacker Kevin Riddick leads the unit as a preseason All-American. In 2011, he recorded 71 tackles, six tackles for loss, and one sack. Another senior, defensive tackle Slyvester Williams, flourished in his first season at North Carolina last year. After playing two seasons of community college football in Kansas, Williams was a breakout star last year while posting 54 tackles, seven tackles for loss, one interception and three pass breakups. In the secondary, junior Tre Boston is back at safety. He was third on the team last year with 70 tackles and tied for the team lead in interceptions (three) with the departed Zach Brown.
Schedule, notes, outlook: Because of NCAA sanctions, the Tar Heels will not be eligible for a bowl game this season. Whether that makes them play less inspired or puts some extra fire in their belly because they have nothing to play for but the regular season, we'll have to wait and see. North Carolina's schedule is pretty favorable. It could win all four of its non-conference games: Elon, East Carolina, and Idaho at home and Louisville on the road. In the ACC, the Tar Heels don't have to play the two favorites in the Atlantic Division -- Florida State and Clemson. And the two favorites in UNC's division -- Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech -- have to visit Chapel Hill, as does N.C. State, a team with high aspirations from the Atlantic. A Thursday night contest at Virginia in the "Oldest Rivalry in the South" in November could be big if both teams are playing well. The Cavaliers have not beaten the Tar Heels since 2009. This year will be about adjusting for UNC. Fedora brings new styles and schemes to Chapel Hill. The offense was good last year and will probably be good this year once it gets a few games to adjust. The opponents aren't that tough so they are good games for the offense to find itself. Remember, winning is important, but North Carolina can't play in a bowl game so making something easy for the offense in order to win might not happen. Fedora might instead err on the side of letting the offense make mistakes so it can eventually pick up the offense faster and be ahead of the game next year. The defense could take a little longer to acclimate. It was not the strong suit last season and returns just five players. North Carolina might have to win some games in shootouts. The easy schedule works in its favor, however, and I think North Carolina will turn some heads and go 8-4 or 9-3.
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