I've written previews for 11 ACC teams, from Boston College all the way down to Miami. Now here's my look at the Wahoos.
Last year: Virginia finished 8-5, 5-3 in the conference last year under second-year head coach Mike London, which placed it in a tie for second in the Coastal Division with Georgia Tech. The Cavaliers beat the Yellow Jackets head-to-head, though, and had a chance to win the division and advance to the ACC championship in the final week of the regular season but lost to Virginia Tech 38-0. Virginia started out the season with a dominating 40-3 win over William & Mary then followed that up with a thrilling road win at Indiana, 34-31, which moved the team to 2-0. The Cavs then dropped games to North Carolina and Southern Miss before rebounding with an overtime win over Idaho and a victory over undefeated and No. 12-ranked Georgia Tech, 24-21. After a letdown loss to N.C. State, Virginia went on its hottest streak of the year, winning four straight games, concluding with one of the biggest wins in program history, a 14-13 win over Florida State on the road, the Cavaliers' first win in Tallahassee. The streak also included wins over Miami, Maryland, and Duke. After getting thumped by the Hokies, the Wahoos were invited to the Chick-fil-A Bowl in Atlanta where they faced defending national champion Auburn. Despite scoring the first touchdown of the game, Virginia lost 43-24.
Although Michael Rocco started every game at quarterback last season, both he and David Watford shared time at the position during the first seven games of the season. Neither was able to get in a good rhythm and the Cavalier offense was sputtering at times. The plan was scrapped and Rocco was the primary signal caller from the Miami game until the end of the season. He completed 222 of 366 passes (60.7 percent) for 2,671 yards, 13 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Once he became the primary quarterback, however, he performed much better over the last six games of the season, tossing nine touchdowns compared to just four interceptions. In his time under center, Watford completed 30 of 74 passes (40.5 percent) for 346 yards, three TDs, and four INTs. Perry Jones carried the load at running back, rushing for 915 yards on 184 attempts (five yards per carry) while scoring five touchdowns. He was also a major receiving threat out of the backfield, bringing in 48 catches (second on the team) for 506 yards and three touchdowns. He also threw a long, 37-yard touchdown pass on a trick play to Tim Smith against Miami. Kevin Parks and Clifton Richardson also saw lots of time at running back. Parks ran for 709 yards and nine touchdowns while Richardson rumbled for 366 yards and a pair of scores. Kris Burd was Mr. Reliable at receiver, seemingly never dropping a pass, catching 66 balls for 913 yards and three touchdowns. After Jones, Smith was the next leading target and Virginia's big-play receiver, hauling in 33 receptions for 565 yards and three touchdowns (his 17.1 yards per catch led the team and was sixth in the ACC). Darius Jennings and Matt Snyder each caught 20 passes for over 200 yards and Jennings added a touchdown.
The defense had an up and down season, giving up 23.8 points per game. During the team's hot streak, Virginia gave up no more than 21 points for four straight games, including allowing just 13 points to FSU's offense. Another highlight was holding Georgia Tech's triple option offense to just 272 yards rushing and 21 points. An odd but positive statistic for the Wahoos is that they allowed only 24 first-quarter points all season, which was tied for the best in the nation with USC. Lowlights for the unit included giving up 31 points to a bad Indiana team, and allowing 38 and 43 points to finish out the season to Virginia Tech and Auburn, respectively. Linebacker Steve Greer was the leading tackler in 2011, recording 103 stops and six tackles for loss. He missed the bowl game after tearing his ACL. Linebacker LaRoy Reynolds was second with 88 tackles, eight for loss. The duo has combined for the third-most tackles in the ACC, 316, since the beginning of the 2010 season. Defensive tackle Matt Conrath led the team in tackles for loss with 12 while defensive end Cam Johnson led the team in sacks with four. Safety Rodney McLeod was the team leader in picks with four while cornerback Chase Minnifield had three.
Something that I haven't mentioned in other team previews is special teams, mainly because I just don't feel like delving into the unit, though I recognize that it can win or lose a team games. But for Virginia, I will. And not for good reasons. The special teams unit was the weak part of last season's team. The punt returns were a trainwreck. True freshman Dominique Terrell botched several returns, and even Perry Jones caught one punt on the goal line, I believe. Two punts got blocked in the Auburn game. One got blocked because the 'Hoos tried a rugby-style punt out of the end zone, which was easily blocked by the Tigers. The kick return unit also left something to be desired.
Offense: The offense is likely going to be the strength of this year's team. The unit returns seven starters. Rocco, a junior, won the starting quarterback job over Alabama transfer Phillip Sims, a redshirt sophomore, and David Watford, a true sophomore. Rocco needs to cut down on his interceptions, but he improved over the second half of last season once he was the sole quarterback and I expect his improvement to continue. Expect to see Sims get a lot of snaps if Virginia wins by blowout in any games this season. Watford is reportedly in discussions with London about redshirting. Jones, known as "Superman" for all he does for the team, will be the starter at running back and expect to see heavy doses of Parks with Richardson sprinkled in some as well, though he might be dinged up to start the season. Burd has graduated but Smith, a junior, is back, as is Jennings, a sophomore. Expect Terrell to see more time at receiver than last season, when he caught just eight passes as a freshman. He was given the most improved player award on offense in the spring. Hopefully he is also more improved on punt returns, where he is listed first on the depth chart. E.J. Scott, a sophomore, could see time as well at receiver. Senior Paul Freedman won the tight end starting job over fellow senior Colter Phillips but both, and also junior Jeremiah Mathis, should factor into both the passing and running games. I would like to see the tight ends more involved in the offense like they were during the Al Groh era, but this doesn't seem to be a focus of offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. The offensive line lost center Anthony Mihota and All-American guard Austin Pasztor. After starting at right guard last year, junior Luke Bowanko slides into the center position. At left tackle is senior preseason All-American Oday Aboushi. At right guard is sophomore Cody Wallace. Junior Sean Cascarano or sophomore Conner Davis will start at left guard. Big-man Morgan Moses, a junior, will hold down the right tackle. Starting at fullback will be lanky 6-foot-6, 255-pound sophomore Zachary Swanson after the graduation of Max Milien. With lots of experience returning, and a more solidified quarterback position, I expect this year's offense to eclipse the performance of last year's. If Rocco struggles early on or the team loses a game here or there it shouldn't, I wouldn't be shocked to see Sims start to see the field more, however.
Defense: The defense returns just five players with starting experience. Gone are defensive end Cam Johnson, tackles Conrath and Nick Jenkins, linebacker Aaron Taliaferro, cornerback Minnifield, and safeties McLeod and Corey Mosley. Last season's unit vastly improved from the 2010 defensive group as it began to grasp the 4-3 defense that London and defensive coordinator Jim Reid installed. I think this season's defense will probably struggle early on, but there is lots of young talent that is going to see time that will start playing better as the season progresses. Junior Jake Snyder is back at one defensive end where he was second among defensive lineman on the team with 36 tackles. At the two tackle spots will be junior Brent Urban and senior Will Hill, both who saw lots of playing time last season. Senior Bill Schautz will start at the other end after rehabbing from a terrible broken leg injury he suffered against Florida State last year. Before the injury, Schautz was having the best game of his career, with a sack, forced fumble, and pass breakup. Expect to see lots of true freshman Eli Harold, the top recruit in the state, at end as well. At linebacker, senior Greer is back after recovering from his ACL tear and he will be joined by fellow senior Reynolds and Henry Coley. Coley, a sophomore, saw time last year and started in the Chick-fil-A Bowl in place of Greer. The secondary will be very young, starting all sophomores. Demetrious Nicholson will be at one corner after starting every game last season and recording two interceptions while Drequan Hoskey will start at the other corner, but also expect to see freshman Maurice Canady play some as well. At safety will be Brandon Phelps and Anthony Harris.
Special teams: Gone are kicker Robert Randolph and punter Jimmy Howell. Junior Drew Jarrett, who's returning to the team after a year off, will be the placekicker. Sophomore Alec Vozenilek will handle punting duties. Freshman Ian Frye will kickoff. Senior Jacob Hodges and sophomore Matt Fortin return as holder and long snapper, respectively. Despite his struggles last season, Terrell is said to have improved and is slated to return punts. Nicholson is listed second on the depth chart there. Jennings and Jones will likely be deep to return kickoffs. I don't like the idea of having your senior running back and one of the team leaders participate in one of the most dangerous plays in football, but that's me.
Schedule, notes, outlook: The first thing you notice when looking at UVa's schedule is the difficult opening. There are no gimme games in September except for Richmond (and even with that game we all remember what happened in 2009 vs. William & Mary). But after the Spiders, Virginia has to play Penn State at home, Georgia Tech on the road, and TCU on the road before returning home to face Louisiana Tech. Penn State won't be at full strength because of some transfers, but I still expect it to be tough because the Nittany Lions' scholarship reductions won't take effect until next season. The Yellow Jackets will be tough like usual with their unique offense and the Cavaliers won't have two weeks to prepare for it like they did last year. The Horned Frogs have become one of the most consistent teams in the nation in recent years and was beating Virginia 30-0 in 2009 at Scott Stadium before two late TDs helped the 'Hoos make the score look respectable. It is possible that UVa could be 1-3 heading into its late September matchup vs. Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs are in the WAC and a team on the rise that finished 8-5 last season after losing 31-24 to an 11-2 TCU team. Virginia would be smart to get to at least two wins before playing the Bulldogs. In October, the 'Hoos face Duke on the road, and Maryland and Wake Forest at home. In November, Virginia faces N.C. State on the road, Miami and North Carolina at home, and Virginia Tech on the road. The UNC matchup should be a big one, as both teams have the chance to be playing well and it is on a Thursday night on ESPN. Virginia doesn't face two contenders in the Atlantic Division, Florida State and Clemson, and also does not play Boston College. Overall, though, the 'Hoos schedule is pretty tough, especially the out-of-conference schedule, and road games at the Yellow Jackets, Wolfpack, and Hokies. Like I said, I think the defense could struggle early -- hopefully not as much as 2010 -- but the offense has a chance to be very good, maybe the best since the days of Marques Hagans or Matt Schaub at quarterback. It could carry the defense some games and the Cavs might even win some shootouts. If the 'Hoos can weather the storm of September with at least two to three wins, they can set themselves up for a successful year. I see UVa going 7-5 or 6-6.
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PICKS
I started out the season 3-0 by correctly picking South Carolina, BYU, and Minnesota all to win last night. Now some picks for tonight and tomorrow.
Tonight
Tennessee vs. N.C. State in Atlanta, 7:30 ESPNU
First test of the season for the ACC. The SEC, along with just about every other major conference, has dominated the ACC in recent years. But I like N.C. State in this one against a Tennessee team which is still rebuilding.
N.C. State 31, Tennessee 24
No. 24 Boise State at No. 13 Michigan State, 8 p.m. ESPN
Not many returning starters for the Broncos, including quarterback Kellen Moore. The Spartans are really building something but have to replace quarterback Kirk Cousins.
Michigan State 34, Boise State 24
Saturday
Notre Dame vs. Navy, 9 a.m. CBS
Nope, not a typo. Navy and Notre Dame play at 9 a.m. ET, in Ireland! Should be quite a scene.
Notre Dame 24, Navy 20
Ohio at Penn State, Noon ESPN
Should be an eerie sight and will set the tone for the rest of the season. The Bobcats were a bowl team last year. Can the Nittany Lions even beat them?
Penn State 19, Ohio 14
William & Mary at Maryland, 3 p.m.
One of the better chances for an FCS team to upset an FBS team this year, probably. The Tribe did it three years ago vs. Virginia. The Terps won all of two games last year.
Maryland 21, William & Mary 16
No. 14 Clemson vs. Auburn in Atlanta, 7 p.m. ESPN
And the second early test for the ACC when it faces the SEC. I think this will be a great game but the ACC loses this one.
Auburn 28, Clemson 27
No. 8 Michigan vs. No. 2 Alabama in Arlington, Texas, 8 p.m. ABC
Alabama has an inexperienced defense but you got to know it will still be one of the best in the nation. I can't see Alabama losing this one, especially after Michigan running back Fitzgerald Toussaint was suspended today because of legal trouble.
Alabama 24, Michigan 13
Richmond at Virginia, 3 p.m. RSN
The Spiders went 3-8 last year and have not won since September 2011. I think the Cavaliers offense looks impressive and Sims will get some mop up time at quarterback. Solid opening showing for the Cavaliers.
Virginia 44, Richmond 7
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| QB Michael Rocco |
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| RB Perry Jones |
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| WR Tim Smith |
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| LB Steve Greer |
Something that I haven't mentioned in other team previews is special teams, mainly because I just don't feel like delving into the unit, though I recognize that it can win or lose a team games. But for Virginia, I will. And not for good reasons. The special teams unit was the weak part of last season's team. The punt returns were a trainwreck. True freshman Dominique Terrell botched several returns, and even Perry Jones caught one punt on the goal line, I believe. Two punts got blocked in the Auburn game. One got blocked because the 'Hoos tried a rugby-style punt out of the end zone, which was easily blocked by the Tigers. The kick return unit also left something to be desired.
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| LT Oday Aboushi |
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| CB Demetrious Nicholson |
Special teams: Gone are kicker Robert Randolph and punter Jimmy Howell. Junior Drew Jarrett, who's returning to the team after a year off, will be the placekicker. Sophomore Alec Vozenilek will handle punting duties. Freshman Ian Frye will kickoff. Senior Jacob Hodges and sophomore Matt Fortin return as holder and long snapper, respectively. Despite his struggles last season, Terrell is said to have improved and is slated to return punts. Nicholson is listed second on the depth chart there. Jennings and Jones will likely be deep to return kickoffs. I don't like the idea of having your senior running back and one of the team leaders participate in one of the most dangerous plays in football, but that's me.
Schedule, notes, outlook: The first thing you notice when looking at UVa's schedule is the difficult opening. There are no gimme games in September except for Richmond (and even with that game we all remember what happened in 2009 vs. William & Mary). But after the Spiders, Virginia has to play Penn State at home, Georgia Tech on the road, and TCU on the road before returning home to face Louisiana Tech. Penn State won't be at full strength because of some transfers, but I still expect it to be tough because the Nittany Lions' scholarship reductions won't take effect until next season. The Yellow Jackets will be tough like usual with their unique offense and the Cavaliers won't have two weeks to prepare for it like they did last year. The Horned Frogs have become one of the most consistent teams in the nation in recent years and was beating Virginia 30-0 in 2009 at Scott Stadium before two late TDs helped the 'Hoos make the score look respectable. It is possible that UVa could be 1-3 heading into its late September matchup vs. Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs are in the WAC and a team on the rise that finished 8-5 last season after losing 31-24 to an 11-2 TCU team. Virginia would be smart to get to at least two wins before playing the Bulldogs. In October, the 'Hoos face Duke on the road, and Maryland and Wake Forest at home. In November, Virginia faces N.C. State on the road, Miami and North Carolina at home, and Virginia Tech on the road. The UNC matchup should be a big one, as both teams have the chance to be playing well and it is on a Thursday night on ESPN. Virginia doesn't face two contenders in the Atlantic Division, Florida State and Clemson, and also does not play Boston College. Overall, though, the 'Hoos schedule is pretty tough, especially the out-of-conference schedule, and road games at the Yellow Jackets, Wolfpack, and Hokies. Like I said, I think the defense could struggle early -- hopefully not as much as 2010 -- but the offense has a chance to be very good, maybe the best since the days of Marques Hagans or Matt Schaub at quarterback. It could carry the defense some games and the Cavs might even win some shootouts. If the 'Hoos can weather the storm of September with at least two to three wins, they can set themselves up for a successful year. I see UVa going 7-5 or 6-6.
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PICKS
I started out the season 3-0 by correctly picking South Carolina, BYU, and Minnesota all to win last night. Now some picks for tonight and tomorrow.
Tonight
Tennessee vs. N.C. State in Atlanta, 7:30 ESPNU
First test of the season for the ACC. The SEC, along with just about every other major conference, has dominated the ACC in recent years. But I like N.C. State in this one against a Tennessee team which is still rebuilding.
N.C. State 31, Tennessee 24
No. 24 Boise State at No. 13 Michigan State, 8 p.m. ESPN
Not many returning starters for the Broncos, including quarterback Kellen Moore. The Spartans are really building something but have to replace quarterback Kirk Cousins.
Michigan State 34, Boise State 24
Saturday
Notre Dame vs. Navy, 9 a.m. CBS
Nope, not a typo. Navy and Notre Dame play at 9 a.m. ET, in Ireland! Should be quite a scene.
Notre Dame 24, Navy 20
Ohio at Penn State, Noon ESPN
Should be an eerie sight and will set the tone for the rest of the season. The Bobcats were a bowl team last year. Can the Nittany Lions even beat them?
Penn State 19, Ohio 14
William & Mary at Maryland, 3 p.m.
One of the better chances for an FCS team to upset an FBS team this year, probably. The Tribe did it three years ago vs. Virginia. The Terps won all of two games last year.
Maryland 21, William & Mary 16
No. 14 Clemson vs. Auburn in Atlanta, 7 p.m. ESPN
And the second early test for the ACC when it faces the SEC. I think this will be a great game but the ACC loses this one.
Auburn 28, Clemson 27
No. 8 Michigan vs. No. 2 Alabama in Arlington, Texas, 8 p.m. ABC
Alabama has an inexperienced defense but you got to know it will still be one of the best in the nation. I can't see Alabama losing this one, especially after Michigan running back Fitzgerald Toussaint was suspended today because of legal trouble.
Alabama 24, Michigan 13
Richmond at Virginia, 3 p.m. RSN
The Spiders went 3-8 last year and have not won since September 2011. I think the Cavaliers offense looks impressive and Sims will get some mop up time at quarterback. Solid opening showing for the Cavaliers.
Virginia 44, Richmond 7
dang, 44-7. you're not playing around are you.
ReplyDeletehaha no i guess not. i mean we didnt play a good first half last year against W&M (i think it was 13-0) and we still beat them 40-3. richmond was 3-8 last year and hasnt won since last sept. they are not good. they had a good QB last year, Corps, and now he has graduated so they have a first-time starter. we should win by that much. course, this is uva, so you never know. a more conservative estimate would be 31-10.
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