I went 7-3 two weeks ago in college picks and 3-4 last week and am now 35-21 on the year.
No. 15 Texas vs. No. 13 Oklahoma in Dallas, Noon ABC
The Red River Rivalry is usually one of the premier rivalry games each season in the country. It lost some of its luster the past two seasons, however, because Texas took a dip, going 5-7 in 2010 and 8-5 a season ago. The rivalry seems to be back on track this season as Texas was undefeated up until a week ago when the Longhorns fell, 48-45, to No. 5 West Virginia. The Sooners have just one loss, as well, three weeks ago to an undefeated Kansas State team. Texas seems to have a little more firepower this year than Oklahoma so I'll take Texas on the neutral field.
Texas 38, Oklahoma 30
Duke at Virginia Tech, 12:30 p.m. ACC Network
For the first time in years, Duke is not only at the cusp of bowl eligibility at 5-1, but also might have a legitimate shot to actually down the Hokies. Duke is fresh off a 42-17 second-half beatdown of Virginia a week ago, but hasn't exactly played a murderer's row schedule yet, with wins over Florida International, North Carolina Central, Memphis, and Wake Forest in addition to the Cavaliers. The Blue Devils' only tough opponent was Stanford, and the Cardinal trounced Duke 50-13. Still, this game should be competitive as Duke has a high-flying offense -- injured quarterback Sean Renfree is probable after missing the UVa game -- and a defense that should be good enough to hold down what has been a weak Hokies offense. Virginia Tech has struggled on defense as well, uncommon during the Frank Beamer and Bud Foster era. The Hokies have fielded poor offenses many other seasons, but the defense was always there to carry the Hokies to 9-plus regular-season wins. The defense has faltered this season as well, though, as it gave up 35 points to Pittsburgh, 27 to Cincinnati, and 48 to UNC last week, all losses. Tech doesn't have a quality win yet, either, as it has feasted on weaker foes Georgia Tech, Austin Peay, and Bowling Green. I think Duke will go bowling this year (despite an incredibly bad 1-39 record against its final six opponents since ACC expansion in 2004) but I think it would still be asking too much for the Blue Devils to win in Blacksburg.
Virginia Tech 27, Duke 21
North Carolina at Miami, 2:30 p.m. ESPNU
The Tar Heels are looking strong under new head coach Larry Fedora. They scored 48 points on Virginia Tech last week and are 5-2, with their only two losses coming by a combined six points. Miami is 4-2 and has shown it can beat weaker teams, but has done nothing against quality opponents, getting destroyed 52-13 by Kansas State and 41-3 by Notre Dame a week ago. I like North Carolina in a narrow victory.
North Carolina 35, Miami 31
No. 17 Stanford at No. 7 Notre Dame, 3:30 p.m. NBC
This would have been a top-10 matchup had the Cardinal not dropped a contest to Washington a couple weeks ago. The Fighting Irish are undefeated and have been dominant on defense, allowing just 39 points combined in their five games.
Notre Dame 24, Stanford 17
No. 3 South Carolina at No. 9 LSU, 8 p.m. ESPN
South Carolina has shown the past few years it can be a second-tier SEC team. That is very good, good enough to win tons of games and go to January bowl games, but not good enough to win national championships. The Gamecocks are currently in the midst of a three-game stretch where they can prove they are a different team this year and can truly be elite. They passed their first test, crushing Georgia at home last week. This week, things get a little tougher playing the Tigers in Death Valley in front of a prime time crowd. Should they pass this test, they would then face Florida at The Swamp next week. LSU has shown it is vulnerable this year, struggling at times and losing 14-6 at Florida last week. South Carolina has mostly cruised in its games, except for a thrilling 17-13 opening victory at Vanderbilt. LSU has struggled against the likes of Auburn and Towson. This will not be easy for South Carolina, and I don't expect a a blowout like last week's victory over the Bulldogs, but I do like the Gamecocks to continue their undefeated march.
South Carolina 20, LSU 17
No. 22 Texas A&M at No. 23 Louisiana Tech, 9 p.m. ESPNU
Louisiana Tech finally gets its time in front of a national audience. The Bulldogs were supposed to face the Aggies in Week 1, but their date was postponed because of Hurricane Isaac. Since then, Louisiana Tech has reeled off five straight wins to start 5-0 and has done it with one of the most prolific offenses in the country. The Aggies have played very well, too, starting 4-1 and cruising in most of its wins under new head coach Kevin Sumlin, who moved over from Houston. The only bump in the road for A&M was in the beginning, when it suffered a narrow 20-17 home loss to Florida, a team that has gone on to show it is a top-10 team. I like A&M to spoil the Bulldogs' party. Louisiana Tech is a good team, but it hasn't played any tough squads yet and UVa almost came back on the Dogs after being down 44-24 in the fourth quarter. And as beleaguered as Virginia's defense has been, it showed flashes of stopping Louisiana Tech, especially in the first half, which A&M should be able to study. Louisiana Tech deserves to be a top-20 team if it can pull off this upset.
Texas A&M 45, Louisiana Tech 34
Maryland at Virginia, 3 p.m. RSN
It is getting down to crunch time for Virginia. Last year's 8-5 record and Chick-fil-A Bowl appearance are a distant memory. The Wahoos are 2-4 this season and are 2-6 since beating Florida State in Tallahassee last season, and only one of those wins was over an FBS team -- Penn State this season after it missed four field goals. UVa led Duke last week 17-14 at halftime but ended up losing 42-17 as the Blue Devils outscored the Cavaliers 28-0 in the second half. That seems to be a huge problem in recent seasons -- halftime adjustments. If Virginia could just play one half, it would probably have a much better record. Things tend to fall apart midway through games. So far in his young coaching career, Mike London appears to be a pretty good initial game planner but fails to make strong, if any, in-game adjustments.
Phillip Sims did some good things in his starting quarterback debut against the Devils but also threw a pair of interceptions. Also, Virginia seemed to finally gets its running game on track a bit, gaining 186 yards on the ground in the first half. It failed to replicate that success in the second half, however, recording just three yards. I think that speaks a lot to the failure of the staff to make solid halftime adjustments. It does show, though, that the running game is getting better. It will need to be good against Maryland to keep the defense honest. A good run game will help Sims connect on some of those long passes he just barely missed on last week. Another thing Virginia must cut down on is the dropped passes. Both Sims and Michael Rocco have been the victims of weak hands by their receivers. Whether it leads to a tipped ball and an interception, or a punt because a crucial first down completion was dropped, they need to stop.
This week is Homecomings for the 'Hoos and they face their northern border rival, Maryland. The Terrapins have the seventh best defense in the nation in terms of yardage but the 117th ranked offense in terms of yardage. Maryland is 3-2 overall but has not played a tough schedule, with its best win coming over Temple. The Terrapins also beat William & Mary to open the season and Wake Forest last week. After a terrible start to coach Randy Edsall's tenure with a 2-10 record last season, the Terrapins are clearly getting better now. The opening victory over the Tribe was by only one point (7-6) and just three weeks later, they held their own against West Virginia, losing 31-21.
The Terrapins are not good on offense but they do feature one of the ACC's most young and electric playmakers, freshman wide out Stefon Diggs. He's caught 17 passes for 364 yards and three touchdowns. He's also returned seven kicks for an average of 26.6 yards per return with a long of 45 yards. The 'Hoos will have to be careful so that he doesn't get loose in the return game or the passing game.
Freshman Perry Hills is the Maryland quarterback. He was thrust into the starting role when CJ Brown went down to a season-ending injury before a game was played. Hills is 71 of 123 (57.7 percent) for 940 yards, with seven touchdowns, and six picks.
In 2008, things were looking bleak for a 1-3 UVa team. It had just gotten crushed 31-3 at Duke, by a Blue Devils squad that was not as good as this season's version. Somehow, however, the 'Hoos returned home to face Maryland and put together its best effort of the year in a 31-0 shellacking of the Terrapins. In 2012, things aren't looking too good for the Wahoos. They have just gotten beaten soundly -- in the second half at least -- by Duke on the road and sit at 2-4, two games below .500 and they return home to face Maryland. Hopefully the 'Hoos can conjure up some of the magic from that game today. But as it is, I just can't see how Virginia can win by continually making the same mistakes over and over and continuing to get outplayed in the second half of games.
Maryland 27, Virginia 24
No. 15 Texas vs. No. 13 Oklahoma in Dallas, Noon ABC
The Red River Rivalry is usually one of the premier rivalry games each season in the country. It lost some of its luster the past two seasons, however, because Texas took a dip, going 5-7 in 2010 and 8-5 a season ago. The rivalry seems to be back on track this season as Texas was undefeated up until a week ago when the Longhorns fell, 48-45, to No. 5 West Virginia. The Sooners have just one loss, as well, three weeks ago to an undefeated Kansas State team. Texas seems to have a little more firepower this year than Oklahoma so I'll take Texas on the neutral field.
Texas 38, Oklahoma 30
Duke at Virginia Tech, 12:30 p.m. ACC Network
For the first time in years, Duke is not only at the cusp of bowl eligibility at 5-1, but also might have a legitimate shot to actually down the Hokies. Duke is fresh off a 42-17 second-half beatdown of Virginia a week ago, but hasn't exactly played a murderer's row schedule yet, with wins over Florida International, North Carolina Central, Memphis, and Wake Forest in addition to the Cavaliers. The Blue Devils' only tough opponent was Stanford, and the Cardinal trounced Duke 50-13. Still, this game should be competitive as Duke has a high-flying offense -- injured quarterback Sean Renfree is probable after missing the UVa game -- and a defense that should be good enough to hold down what has been a weak Hokies offense. Virginia Tech has struggled on defense as well, uncommon during the Frank Beamer and Bud Foster era. The Hokies have fielded poor offenses many other seasons, but the defense was always there to carry the Hokies to 9-plus regular-season wins. The defense has faltered this season as well, though, as it gave up 35 points to Pittsburgh, 27 to Cincinnati, and 48 to UNC last week, all losses. Tech doesn't have a quality win yet, either, as it has feasted on weaker foes Georgia Tech, Austin Peay, and Bowling Green. I think Duke will go bowling this year (despite an incredibly bad 1-39 record against its final six opponents since ACC expansion in 2004) but I think it would still be asking too much for the Blue Devils to win in Blacksburg.
Virginia Tech 27, Duke 21
North Carolina at Miami, 2:30 p.m. ESPNU
The Tar Heels are looking strong under new head coach Larry Fedora. They scored 48 points on Virginia Tech last week and are 5-2, with their only two losses coming by a combined six points. Miami is 4-2 and has shown it can beat weaker teams, but has done nothing against quality opponents, getting destroyed 52-13 by Kansas State and 41-3 by Notre Dame a week ago. I like North Carolina in a narrow victory.
North Carolina 35, Miami 31
No. 17 Stanford at No. 7 Notre Dame, 3:30 p.m. NBC
This would have been a top-10 matchup had the Cardinal not dropped a contest to Washington a couple weeks ago. The Fighting Irish are undefeated and have been dominant on defense, allowing just 39 points combined in their five games.
Notre Dame 24, Stanford 17
No. 3 South Carolina at No. 9 LSU, 8 p.m. ESPN
South Carolina has shown the past few years it can be a second-tier SEC team. That is very good, good enough to win tons of games and go to January bowl games, but not good enough to win national championships. The Gamecocks are currently in the midst of a three-game stretch where they can prove they are a different team this year and can truly be elite. They passed their first test, crushing Georgia at home last week. This week, things get a little tougher playing the Tigers in Death Valley in front of a prime time crowd. Should they pass this test, they would then face Florida at The Swamp next week. LSU has shown it is vulnerable this year, struggling at times and losing 14-6 at Florida last week. South Carolina has mostly cruised in its games, except for a thrilling 17-13 opening victory at Vanderbilt. LSU has struggled against the likes of Auburn and Towson. This will not be easy for South Carolina, and I don't expect a a blowout like last week's victory over the Bulldogs, but I do like the Gamecocks to continue their undefeated march.
South Carolina 20, LSU 17
No. 22 Texas A&M at No. 23 Louisiana Tech, 9 p.m. ESPNU
Louisiana Tech finally gets its time in front of a national audience. The Bulldogs were supposed to face the Aggies in Week 1, but their date was postponed because of Hurricane Isaac. Since then, Louisiana Tech has reeled off five straight wins to start 5-0 and has done it with one of the most prolific offenses in the country. The Aggies have played very well, too, starting 4-1 and cruising in most of its wins under new head coach Kevin Sumlin, who moved over from Houston. The only bump in the road for A&M was in the beginning, when it suffered a narrow 20-17 home loss to Florida, a team that has gone on to show it is a top-10 team. I like A&M to spoil the Bulldogs' party. Louisiana Tech is a good team, but it hasn't played any tough squads yet and UVa almost came back on the Dogs after being down 44-24 in the fourth quarter. And as beleaguered as Virginia's defense has been, it showed flashes of stopping Louisiana Tech, especially in the first half, which A&M should be able to study. Louisiana Tech deserves to be a top-20 team if it can pull off this upset.
Texas A&M 45, Louisiana Tech 34
Maryland at Virginia, 3 p.m. RSN
It is getting down to crunch time for Virginia. Last year's 8-5 record and Chick-fil-A Bowl appearance are a distant memory. The Wahoos are 2-4 this season and are 2-6 since beating Florida State in Tallahassee last season, and only one of those wins was over an FBS team -- Penn State this season after it missed four field goals. UVa led Duke last week 17-14 at halftime but ended up losing 42-17 as the Blue Devils outscored the Cavaliers 28-0 in the second half. That seems to be a huge problem in recent seasons -- halftime adjustments. If Virginia could just play one half, it would probably have a much better record. Things tend to fall apart midway through games. So far in his young coaching career, Mike London appears to be a pretty good initial game planner but fails to make strong, if any, in-game adjustments.
Phillip Sims did some good things in his starting quarterback debut against the Devils but also threw a pair of interceptions. Also, Virginia seemed to finally gets its running game on track a bit, gaining 186 yards on the ground in the first half. It failed to replicate that success in the second half, however, recording just three yards. I think that speaks a lot to the failure of the staff to make solid halftime adjustments. It does show, though, that the running game is getting better. It will need to be good against Maryland to keep the defense honest. A good run game will help Sims connect on some of those long passes he just barely missed on last week. Another thing Virginia must cut down on is the dropped passes. Both Sims and Michael Rocco have been the victims of weak hands by their receivers. Whether it leads to a tipped ball and an interception, or a punt because a crucial first down completion was dropped, they need to stop.
This week is Homecomings for the 'Hoos and they face their northern border rival, Maryland. The Terrapins have the seventh best defense in the nation in terms of yardage but the 117th ranked offense in terms of yardage. Maryland is 3-2 overall but has not played a tough schedule, with its best win coming over Temple. The Terrapins also beat William & Mary to open the season and Wake Forest last week. After a terrible start to coach Randy Edsall's tenure with a 2-10 record last season, the Terrapins are clearly getting better now. The opening victory over the Tribe was by only one point (7-6) and just three weeks later, they held their own against West Virginia, losing 31-21.The Terrapins are not good on offense but they do feature one of the ACC's most young and electric playmakers, freshman wide out Stefon Diggs. He's caught 17 passes for 364 yards and three touchdowns. He's also returned seven kicks for an average of 26.6 yards per return with a long of 45 yards. The 'Hoos will have to be careful so that he doesn't get loose in the return game or the passing game.
Freshman Perry Hills is the Maryland quarterback. He was thrust into the starting role when CJ Brown went down to a season-ending injury before a game was played. Hills is 71 of 123 (57.7 percent) for 940 yards, with seven touchdowns, and six picks.
In 2008, things were looking bleak for a 1-3 UVa team. It had just gotten crushed 31-3 at Duke, by a Blue Devils squad that was not as good as this season's version. Somehow, however, the 'Hoos returned home to face Maryland and put together its best effort of the year in a 31-0 shellacking of the Terrapins. In 2012, things aren't looking too good for the Wahoos. They have just gotten beaten soundly -- in the second half at least -- by Duke on the road and sit at 2-4, two games below .500 and they return home to face Maryland. Hopefully the 'Hoos can conjure up some of the magic from that game today. But as it is, I just can't see how Virginia can win by continually making the same mistakes over and over and continuing to get outplayed in the second half of games.
Maryland 27, Virginia 24
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