COWBOYS-REDSKINS
Note: Please vote in my poll on the right side of this page if you haven't. Who do you think will win today's game and claim the NFC East crown?
By now, everyone knows that the Dallas-Washington game in D.C. today is for the NFC East championship. If the Cowboys win, they will have the same overall and division record as the Redskins. Washington actually has the better NFC record, but Dallas would win the title because the tiebreaker after head-to-head and division record is record in common games, and Dallas has the edge in that.
The only way the Cowboys make the playoffs is by winning this game. They can't earn a wild card. The Redskins can either win this game, or lose but also have Minnesota (home vs. Green Bay) and Chicago (at Detroit) lose.
I think I read/heard during this week that the Cowboys and Redskins have played only once for the NFC East title and once for the NFC title. The latter game was in 1972 and the Redskins won, 26-3. Dallas leads the all-time series, 62-41-2.
Washington defeated Dallas, 38-31, in Texas on Thanksgiving Day. Robert Griffin III threw for over 300 yards and four touchdowns as the Redskins torched the Cowboys 28-0 in the second quarter and held on in the second half for the victory. Tony Romo threw for 441 yards and three touchdowns, but also two picks.
I'm not very confident in the Cowboys in this matchup. It is in Washington and the FedEx Field crowd will be the most fired up it has been in years. In addition, it is going to be in the 30s with a chance of rain and both of those elements, I would think, tend to favor the team that has the better running game because it will be harder to throw and catch the ball. That team is Washington, which ranks first in the league in rushing, thanks to Griffin (752 yards) and fellow rookie Alfred Morris (1,413). Dallas ranks 31st in rushing. Recent history is not on the Cowboys' side, as they have usually lose these types of do-or-die games. The Cowboys have been resilient on the road in 2012, however, going 4-3. The Redskins are an equal 4-3 at home this season.
There are analysts picking the Cowboys, though, and I can understand where they are coming from. The Cowboys have been a good second-half team this year and pretty solid on the road. If they just keep the game close by halftime, they should have a good chance to win in the second half. Besides that terrible second quarter on Thanksgiving Day, the Cowboys outscored the Redskins in that game 31-10. Dallas' running game has improved a bit, too, because DeMarco Murray was not available for that game but will play Sunday. Also, Dallas just didn't get a chance to run much in the first meeting because it fell behind early. This time, the Cowboys need to try to dictate the tempo of the game more. Getting some yards on the ground will be important to help relieve some pressure on Romo and take the crowd out of the game a bit.
Another factor is the health of Griffin. His right knee got hit pretty severely against Baltimore on Dec. 9. He ended up with a sprain. He sat out the game immediately after against the Browns but did play last week against the Eagles despite being limited in his movement. You could tell he was not the same RG3. He threw for just 198 yards and ran for only four yards. Obviously, his condition will have improved over the course of the past week, but he won't be at 100 percent and if Dallas gets a few hits on him, maybe he will be a little more reluctant to scramble out of the pocket.
And look at the Redskins' six-game win streak. It hasn't really come against great teams: Eagles (31-6, when they were looking their absolute worst), Dallas, Giants (17-16, New York has not been good down the stretch), Ravens (31-28 in OT, Baltimore went on a three-game losing streak Week 14 through 16), Browns 38-21, and Eagles again, 27-20. So while any team is playing well to win that many in a row, you don't see any truly tough teams listed there like the Falcons, Patriots, Broncos, Texans, 49ers, Seahawks, etc.
My intuition is telling me the Cowboys will lose this game, as this is just the kinds of games they have often lost, with a couple of the exceptions being the 2009 season, when they closed the regular season by shutting out the Eagles 24-0 at home (a game I was at; it should be noted that this was a not a win-or-go-home game, rather, the winner won the division while the loser was a wild card team; the next week, Dallas faced Philly again at home in the playoffs and won). Last year, Dallas played at the Giants in Week 17 for the NFC East title and lost, 31-14. In 2008, Dallas played at Philly in a win-or-go-home situation and was drubbed, 44-6.
It is likely that Romo will get his yards in this game. The Redskins are last in the NFL in pass defense. Romo and Dez Bryant have really come on during the second half of the year as a top QB-WR duo. But how will Romo get his yards? If he has to sling it around to get the Cowboys back in the game or because the running game isn't working, and he ends up with 400 yards or more, I'd contend that the Cowboys will lose. But if Romo's final stat line is more of a measured 250-350 yards, I think Dallas probably won. Here are some of Romo's yardages in games the Cowboys have lost this year: 437, 441, 416.
But of course, he needs to avoid game-changing interceptions no matter how many yards he passes for, which he's done a good job of in recent weeks (three since Nov. 4 against the Falcons).
If Dallas can get a running game going and not let this contest get out of control early, it can win. If the defense continues to be porous, it could be hard for the Cowboys to win, especially if Griffin ends up being more mobile than previously thought. I've heard there are some Redskins fans who aren't very confident in their team. This is interesting to think about. Normally, it is the Eagles and Giants who play in these types of games in the division and have success. When Dallas played New York last year, the Giants were starting to get on a roll and have been known for late-season surges recently and everyone, including fans, was probably expecting the Giants to win. The 2008 loss to the Eagles was also a game where people had to think the Eagles would win, as they were in the middle of a pretty successful decade which included, I believe, six division titles. But the Redskins and Cowboys aren't as use to late-season success. As such, the rivalry hasn't included many truly epic games in recent seasons. This is one and is definitely good for the NFL. Which team unaccustomed to being victorious in big games can break through today? Griffin could really be the difference maker as he is a rookie and hasn't been blanketed with the recent failures of the Redskins franchise. Everything he has touched the last couple years has turned to gold. He is use to winning.
I am going to pick the Redskins because of my gut feeling, but hopefully it is wrong. Those of you who know I am superstitious know one of my reasons for picking against Dallas. I alluded to it in picking last week's game against the Saints. However, I would be disappointed and surprised if this game does not at least come down to the fourth quarter.
Redskins 30, Cowboys 27
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UVA HOOPS
Virginia lost last Saturday in the inaugural Governor's Holiday Hoops Classic to 1-10 ODU, 63-60. It was a bad loss but Old Dominion, as I posted before that game, was not as bad as your typical 1-10 team. The Monarchs had suffered lots of close losses before that matchup. With the game being during the middle of a break, Virginia came out rusty. It was on a neutral floor and a team like ODU is always going to more naturally take those games against the big in-state schools more seriously than would Virginia or Virginia Tech. It was a trap game and the perfect time and place for ODU to play UVa. That said, UVa, if it wants to be taken seriously and make a run for March Madness this season, cannot be losing to 1-10 teams. That is unacceptable. So while I understand how such a loss can come about, that doesn't mean I'm not disappointed. Virginia is 0-3 against the CAA this year. In fact, the Cavs are 9-3 so their only losses have been to CAA teams (other two losses were to George Mason and Delaware).
Today, Virginia tries to get back on track by playing Southern Conference foe Wofford at home, a game I will attend. The Terriers are 6-6 and won at Xavier on Dec. 22, a respectable win as Xavier is usually a team that competes for the Atlantic 10 title. Wofford also played Davidson tough in a 63-56 loss. Davidson is normally a frontrunner in the Southern Conference.
This is definitely a contest Virginia can lose if it does not bring one of its better games to JPJ. Hopefully, with ACC play a week away (the Wahoos open at home with UNC next Sunday), Virginia can start to regain its form of late November, when it beat Wisconsin, and early December, when it beat Tennessee. The last two games have not been great for UVa. Before the loss to the Monarchs, the team gave a lackluster performance in an 18-point home victory over Morgan State. Tony Bennett was not happy with the team's effort, especially on defense, in that one.
By now, everyone knows that the Dallas-Washington game in D.C. today is for the NFC East championship. If the Cowboys win, they will have the same overall and division record as the Redskins. Washington actually has the better NFC record, but Dallas would win the title because the tiebreaker after head-to-head and division record is record in common games, and Dallas has the edge in that.
The only way the Cowboys make the playoffs is by winning this game. They can't earn a wild card. The Redskins can either win this game, or lose but also have Minnesota (home vs. Green Bay) and Chicago (at Detroit) lose.
I think I read/heard during this week that the Cowboys and Redskins have played only once for the NFC East title and once for the NFC title. The latter game was in 1972 and the Redskins won, 26-3. Dallas leads the all-time series, 62-41-2.
Washington defeated Dallas, 38-31, in Texas on Thanksgiving Day. Robert Griffin III threw for over 300 yards and four touchdowns as the Redskins torched the Cowboys 28-0 in the second quarter and held on in the second half for the victory. Tony Romo threw for 441 yards and three touchdowns, but also two picks.
There are analysts picking the Cowboys, though, and I can understand where they are coming from. The Cowboys have been a good second-half team this year and pretty solid on the road. If they just keep the game close by halftime, they should have a good chance to win in the second half. Besides that terrible second quarter on Thanksgiving Day, the Cowboys outscored the Redskins in that game 31-10. Dallas' running game has improved a bit, too, because DeMarco Murray was not available for that game but will play Sunday. Also, Dallas just didn't get a chance to run much in the first meeting because it fell behind early. This time, the Cowboys need to try to dictate the tempo of the game more. Getting some yards on the ground will be important to help relieve some pressure on Romo and take the crowd out of the game a bit.
Another factor is the health of Griffin. His right knee got hit pretty severely against Baltimore on Dec. 9. He ended up with a sprain. He sat out the game immediately after against the Browns but did play last week against the Eagles despite being limited in his movement. You could tell he was not the same RG3. He threw for just 198 yards and ran for only four yards. Obviously, his condition will have improved over the course of the past week, but he won't be at 100 percent and if Dallas gets a few hits on him, maybe he will be a little more reluctant to scramble out of the pocket.
And look at the Redskins' six-game win streak. It hasn't really come against great teams: Eagles (31-6, when they were looking their absolute worst), Dallas, Giants (17-16, New York has not been good down the stretch), Ravens (31-28 in OT, Baltimore went on a three-game losing streak Week 14 through 16), Browns 38-21, and Eagles again, 27-20. So while any team is playing well to win that many in a row, you don't see any truly tough teams listed there like the Falcons, Patriots, Broncos, Texans, 49ers, Seahawks, etc.
My intuition is telling me the Cowboys will lose this game, as this is just the kinds of games they have often lost, with a couple of the exceptions being the 2009 season, when they closed the regular season by shutting out the Eagles 24-0 at home (a game I was at; it should be noted that this was a not a win-or-go-home game, rather, the winner won the division while the loser was a wild card team; the next week, Dallas faced Philly again at home in the playoffs and won). Last year, Dallas played at the Giants in Week 17 for the NFC East title and lost, 31-14. In 2008, Dallas played at Philly in a win-or-go-home situation and was drubbed, 44-6.
It is likely that Romo will get his yards in this game. The Redskins are last in the NFL in pass defense. Romo and Dez Bryant have really come on during the second half of the year as a top QB-WR duo. But how will Romo get his yards? If he has to sling it around to get the Cowboys back in the game or because the running game isn't working, and he ends up with 400 yards or more, I'd contend that the Cowboys will lose. But if Romo's final stat line is more of a measured 250-350 yards, I think Dallas probably won. Here are some of Romo's yardages in games the Cowboys have lost this year: 437, 441, 416.
But of course, he needs to avoid game-changing interceptions no matter how many yards he passes for, which he's done a good job of in recent weeks (three since Nov. 4 against the Falcons).
If Dallas can get a running game going and not let this contest get out of control early, it can win. If the defense continues to be porous, it could be hard for the Cowboys to win, especially if Griffin ends up being more mobile than previously thought. I've heard there are some Redskins fans who aren't very confident in their team. This is interesting to think about. Normally, it is the Eagles and Giants who play in these types of games in the division and have success. When Dallas played New York last year, the Giants were starting to get on a roll and have been known for late-season surges recently and everyone, including fans, was probably expecting the Giants to win. The 2008 loss to the Eagles was also a game where people had to think the Eagles would win, as they were in the middle of a pretty successful decade which included, I believe, six division titles. But the Redskins and Cowboys aren't as use to late-season success. As such, the rivalry hasn't included many truly epic games in recent seasons. This is one and is definitely good for the NFL. Which team unaccustomed to being victorious in big games can break through today? Griffin could really be the difference maker as he is a rookie and hasn't been blanketed with the recent failures of the Redskins franchise. Everything he has touched the last couple years has turned to gold. He is use to winning.
I am going to pick the Redskins because of my gut feeling, but hopefully it is wrong. Those of you who know I am superstitious know one of my reasons for picking against Dallas. I alluded to it in picking last week's game against the Saints. However, I would be disappointed and surprised if this game does not at least come down to the fourth quarter.
Redskins 30, Cowboys 27
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UVA HOOPS
Virginia lost last Saturday in the inaugural Governor's Holiday Hoops Classic to 1-10 ODU, 63-60. It was a bad loss but Old Dominion, as I posted before that game, was not as bad as your typical 1-10 team. The Monarchs had suffered lots of close losses before that matchup. With the game being during the middle of a break, Virginia came out rusty. It was on a neutral floor and a team like ODU is always going to more naturally take those games against the big in-state schools more seriously than would Virginia or Virginia Tech. It was a trap game and the perfect time and place for ODU to play UVa. That said, UVa, if it wants to be taken seriously and make a run for March Madness this season, cannot be losing to 1-10 teams. That is unacceptable. So while I understand how such a loss can come about, that doesn't mean I'm not disappointed. Virginia is 0-3 against the CAA this year. In fact, the Cavs are 9-3 so their only losses have been to CAA teams (other two losses were to George Mason and Delaware).
Today, Virginia tries to get back on track by playing Southern Conference foe Wofford at home, a game I will attend. The Terriers are 6-6 and won at Xavier on Dec. 22, a respectable win as Xavier is usually a team that competes for the Atlantic 10 title. Wofford also played Davidson tough in a 63-56 loss. Davidson is normally a frontrunner in the Southern Conference.
This is definitely a contest Virginia can lose if it does not bring one of its better games to JPJ. Hopefully, with ACC play a week away (the Wahoos open at home with UNC next Sunday), Virginia can start to regain its form of late November, when it beat Wisconsin, and early December, when it beat Tennessee. The last two games have not been great for UVa. Before the loss to the Monarchs, the team gave a lackluster performance in an 18-point home victory over Morgan State. Tony Bennett was not happy with the team's effort, especially on defense, in that one.
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