'Hoos and Hokies; Australian Open upsets

VIRGINIA MEN'S BASKETBALL
Virginia at Virginia Tech, 8 p.m. ACC Network

The Cavaliers travel to Blacksburg to take on Virginia Tech tonight and then have a quick turnaround, hosting Boston College on Saturday at 1 p.m.

Virginia comes into this contest 12-5, 2-2 ACC while the Hokies have the same ACC record and are 11-6 overall. Virginia Tech started out the year 7-0 under first-year head coach James Johnson, a stretch that included a win over then-No. 15 Oklahoma State. The Hokies finally suffered their first loss Dec. 8, at West Virginia, 68-67. After beating Mississippi Valley State, Virginia Tech lost five of its next six games, including a bad loss to Georgia Southern. The Hokies started off the ACC slate 0-2 with losses to Maryland and Boston College, before rebounding recently with an overtime victory over Georgia Tech and a one-point squeaker against Wake Forest.

Virginia Tech's main problem during that terrible stretch was defense. The Hokies gave up 88, 97, 94, and 86 points during a four-game losing streak. Overall, the Hokies give up the most points per game in the ACC at 74.4 points per game. Their last two games, they have given up 65 points each, and one of those games was in overtime. I wonder if the Hokies 'D' is turning around, or is it a product of playing Wake Forest and Georgia Tech, who aren't that great (although Wake did score 84 in a win over N.C. State on Tuesday night).
Va. Tech guard Erick Green

Offense has not been the issue for Tech. The Hokies have adopted an up-tempo style this year as compared to years past, when they would grind out games under coach Seth Greenberg, in kind of the same way Virginia does. As an example, the Hokies beat the Wahoos in Charlottesville last year and the score was 47-45. In the game in Blacksburg, Virginia picked up a key victory, 61-59.

Tech is scoring 75.5 points per game, fourth in the conference, only slightly behind UNC, N.C. State, and Duke. The defense is going to be pretty simple for Virginia: Stop Erick Green and make other players beat them. The senior from Winchester is scoring 24.6 points per game, which leads not only the ACC, but the nation. He also records 4.2 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game. The Hokies have two other players scoring in double figures -- Jarell Eddie (14.5 ppg, 6.6 rpg) and Robert Brown (10.2). Cadarian Raines is averaging 6.8 points and 6.9 rebounds per game and he's pulled down eight and 13 boards, respectively, in the past two games. Indeed, the rebounding battle could be key and Virginia Tech is pretty good in that regard, averaging 38.9 per game, which ranks 36th in the nation.

Virginia Tech ranks high in free throw percentage, 71.8 percent, which is first in the ACC. Virginia ranks third (70.8 percent). The Hokies don't shoot the ball that well from the field, though (43.9 overall and 31.5 percent from 3) so that tells me that the Hokies' high points per game is mostly predicated on getting up and down the floor and getting up a high volume of shots, rather than being super efficient on offense. The Hokies are also only 269th in the country in assists, which tells me they probably aren't great at passing the ball and end up in lots of one-on-one scoring situations, likely involving Green.

Virginia Tech started out the year so strong at 7-0 and it even seemed like something that could last when it beat Oklahoma State, but it has since fallen on hard times, going 4-6 in its last 10 games. This game reminds me a bit of the Wake Forest game. Virginia can definitely win this game, but the Hokies are always fired up to play the 'Hoos, and as a team that probably isn't going to do much come March, this is one of their biggest games of the year, for the players and the fans. Cassell Coliseum will be rocking. UVa has two straight victories there and the Hokies certainly want to end that streak before it gets going. Wake Forest did not play that well when Virginia lost to it, but the 'Hoos played poorly. Since then, Wake Forest has beaten N.C. State so perhaps that loss does not look as bad for the Cavs. Still, Virginia Tech -- like that win over State for Wake -- has done some good things this year and UVa needs to be expecting the Hokies' best. When the Cavaliers are clicking, they can dominate like they did against Florida State on Saturday. When they are off, because of their style of play, it can be ugly, like losses to ODU, Wake, and Clemson were. So even if Virginia Tech doesn't play its best ball, it can still come away from this rivalry matchup victorious.

Virginia must limit Green. Jontel Evans will likely get the assignment first. Evans helped the Virginia defense shut down FSU's Michael Snaer. The senior scored only nine points after averaging about 15 on the year. If Virginia can hold Green to six or more points below his season average (we'll say 18 points or fewer) I think Virginia should have a great chance to win.

ACC NOTE: Miami absolutely wrecked No. 1 Duke at Miami on Wednesday night, winning 90-63. Yes, Duke was with without Ryan Kelly, but he can only help so much. A twenty-seven point blowout is pretty amazing. The Hurricanes broke into the top 25 this week at No. 25 but will surely move up to around 18 or higher, I'd estimate, if they can also beat Florida State on Sunday. That game is also in Miami. The Hurricanes are 5-0, the only undefeated team in the ACC, and 14-3 overall. One loss was to Arizona, who was undefeated at the time and has just one loss now, but the two others were bad losses to Indiana State and Florida Gulf Coast, though the 'Canes were missing key players in both of those games. Miami is a team to be reckoned with and the nation knows that now.
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AUSTRALIAN OPEN
EPA photo: Sloane Stephens after
beating Serena Williams. 
Nineteen-year-old Sloane Stephens broke on to the national scene Wednesday by beating Serena Williams, 3-6, 7-5, 6-4, in a terrific match in the Australian Open quarterfinals. The young American girl's run through the tournament ended, however, today when she lost to No. 1-seeded Victoria Azarenka, 6-1, 6-4. Stephens victory over Serena, though, is still huge. What could it mean for American tennis? Check out my friend Matt Lutey's blog post about it here: http://volmythoughts.blogspot.com/2013/01/the-next-big-thing-in-american-tennis.html

In other Aussie Open news, Li Na beat Maria Sharapova today, quite easily, 6-2, 6-2, and will face Azarenka in the finals. As surprising as Stephens' win over Williams was, this win for Li is also surprising because Sharapova was playing amazing tennis up to this point in the tournament. She had dropped just nine games in her first five matches, a record since the Aussie Open expanded to a 128-player field in 1988.

In the men's semifinals, the matchups are chalk: No. 1 Novak Djokovic will face No. 4 David Ferrer, and No. 2 Roger Federer will face No. 3 Andy Murray.

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