Miami 54, Virginia 50
The Cavaliers missed a chance for a big NCAA tournament resume-building victory last night in Coral Gables, Fla., against the No. 2 Hurricanes. I was unable to watch the game because I was at work so I can only give spotty analysis at best (VirginiaSports.com video highlights are also experiencing technical difficulties) so I will mainly take a look at UVa's hopes for March.
Virginia is now 18-8 overall, and 8-5 in the ACC. The resilient teams keep taking teams' best shots but are still undefeated in the ACC at 13-0, and 22-3 overall.
The Wahoos' defense broke down at an inopportune time last night, allowing Miami's Reggie Johnson to make the game-winning layup. A subsequent steal by Durand Scott on a sloppy in-bounds play sealed the deal for Virginia. He was fouled and made both free throws, putting the Hurricanes up four.
Virginia played tough defense for most of the night and was able to get Miami to play at its pace, as opposed to the game at North Carolina on Saturday. Unfortunately, Miami played stellar defense as well, something I pointed out in my preview it would probably do.
Joe Harris led the way for Virginia with 16 points, but his recent hot shooting fell off and he made just one 3-pointer out of his five shots beyond the arc. Fans at thesabre.com said that Miami's Durand Scott did a great job of blanketing Harris all night. The one shot he did make was huge, as it tied the game late at 46.
Elsewhere, Virginia had no other scorers in double digits, reflecting the defensive-minded game that it was. Paul Jesperson made two 3-pointers to keep up his recent hot streak and finished with eight points. Justin Anderson finished with seven points and three blocks. Jontel Evans had five points, seven assists, and just one turnover but only made one of five field goals. His points came mostly at the stripe, where he made an impressive three of four. Akil Mitchell had six points and nine rebounds, definitely an off game for him. Sounds like he missed several close shots around the rim, something that has hurt the team in losses, such as the one to Georgia Tech on Super Bowl Sunday. The junior forward made just three of his 10 field goal attempts. Evan Nolte had six points and made one 3-pointer as well, a timely shot that got a lucky bounce and tied the game at 50.
Shane Larkin led the way for the Hurricanes with 11 points and six assists. Bench player Rion Brown was the only other 'Cane to score in double figures for Miami with 10 points. Virginia did a good job of holding down Scott (six points) and Kenny Kadji (seven points). Julian Gamble had eight points and seven rebounds while adding four blocks, three of which came right in a row on Mitchell. I think it would be advisable for Mitchell to work on his pump fake a bit.
The general consensus for Virginia's loss last night is that UVa missed an opportunity to do something special and really take a big step forward in its quest for an invitation to the Big Dance, but did not hurt itself too much. Indeed, Virginia's strength of schedule was helped by playing Miami. The Cavs' RPI as of today is 76, still quite soft but they have time to make it better, and they have more going for them as far as quality wins and a higher BPI (new metric created by ESPN this year that takes into account injuries to figure out a team's resume; UVa's is at 45). As we've seen from this team, most any game is winnable and the 'Hoos might have to finish 4-1 down the stretch to make the tournament. Their last five games are home vs. Georgia Tech and Duke, at Boston College and Florida State, and home vs. Maryland. All certainly winnable, all also potential pitfalls.
4-1 with the one loss being to Duke might be enough to get the 'Hoos in at 12-6 in the ACC and 22-9 overall heading to the ACC tournament. Virginia would be better off, I think, to go 4-1 by beating Duke and dropping one of the road games at FSU or BC, because the selection committee would weigh more heavily a win against a top-25 RPI team rather than a loss on the road to a team with an RPI ranging anywhere from 100 to 150. 3-2 might even be good enough as long as one win is against Duke and the team can capture victory in at least one game in the ACC tournament. At that point, the Cavs would be 12-8 in the ACC (counting an ACC tourney win and loss) and 22-11 overall.
It all can truly make your head spin, and when you get down to it, a lot also has to do with how other teams on the bubble perform. ESPN's weekly bubble watch is usually a nice read that organizes all potential NCAA tournament teams by conference.
It can be found here:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch?id=146
Whatever happens, it has been a solid year for the 'Hoos, Sure, there have been the usual frustrations that come with being a fan of the Cavs, but this team has been fun watch, plays hard, and has rarely taken a play off. I guessed at the beginning of the year that Virginia would go 16-14 overall and 8-10 in the conference in the regular season. The team is actually going to play 31 games overall so make that overall record either 17-14 or 16-15. Either way, 18 wins has exceeded my expectations and, barring an epic collapse, the team will finish with more conference victories than I predicted, too.
The Cavaliers missed a chance for a big NCAA tournament resume-building victory last night in Coral Gables, Fla., against the No. 2 Hurricanes. I was unable to watch the game because I was at work so I can only give spotty analysis at best (VirginiaSports.com video highlights are also experiencing technical difficulties) so I will mainly take a look at UVa's hopes for March.
Virginia is now 18-8 overall, and 8-5 in the ACC. The resilient teams keep taking teams' best shots but are still undefeated in the ACC at 13-0, and 22-3 overall.
The Wahoos' defense broke down at an inopportune time last night, allowing Miami's Reggie Johnson to make the game-winning layup. A subsequent steal by Durand Scott on a sloppy in-bounds play sealed the deal for Virginia. He was fouled and made both free throws, putting the Hurricanes up four.
Virginia played tough defense for most of the night and was able to get Miami to play at its pace, as opposed to the game at North Carolina on Saturday. Unfortunately, Miami played stellar defense as well, something I pointed out in my preview it would probably do.
Joe Harris led the way for Virginia with 16 points, but his recent hot shooting fell off and he made just one 3-pointer out of his five shots beyond the arc. Fans at thesabre.com said that Miami's Durand Scott did a great job of blanketing Harris all night. The one shot he did make was huge, as it tied the game late at 46.
Elsewhere, Virginia had no other scorers in double digits, reflecting the defensive-minded game that it was. Paul Jesperson made two 3-pointers to keep up his recent hot streak and finished with eight points. Justin Anderson finished with seven points and three blocks. Jontel Evans had five points, seven assists, and just one turnover but only made one of five field goals. His points came mostly at the stripe, where he made an impressive three of four. Akil Mitchell had six points and nine rebounds, definitely an off game for him. Sounds like he missed several close shots around the rim, something that has hurt the team in losses, such as the one to Georgia Tech on Super Bowl Sunday. The junior forward made just three of his 10 field goal attempts. Evan Nolte had six points and made one 3-pointer as well, a timely shot that got a lucky bounce and tied the game at 50.
Shane Larkin led the way for the Hurricanes with 11 points and six assists. Bench player Rion Brown was the only other 'Cane to score in double figures for Miami with 10 points. Virginia did a good job of holding down Scott (six points) and Kenny Kadji (seven points). Julian Gamble had eight points and seven rebounds while adding four blocks, three of which came right in a row on Mitchell. I think it would be advisable for Mitchell to work on his pump fake a bit.
The general consensus for Virginia's loss last night is that UVa missed an opportunity to do something special and really take a big step forward in its quest for an invitation to the Big Dance, but did not hurt itself too much. Indeed, Virginia's strength of schedule was helped by playing Miami. The Cavs' RPI as of today is 76, still quite soft but they have time to make it better, and they have more going for them as far as quality wins and a higher BPI (new metric created by ESPN this year that takes into account injuries to figure out a team's resume; UVa's is at 45). As we've seen from this team, most any game is winnable and the 'Hoos might have to finish 4-1 down the stretch to make the tournament. Their last five games are home vs. Georgia Tech and Duke, at Boston College and Florida State, and home vs. Maryland. All certainly winnable, all also potential pitfalls.
4-1 with the one loss being to Duke might be enough to get the 'Hoos in at 12-6 in the ACC and 22-9 overall heading to the ACC tournament. Virginia would be better off, I think, to go 4-1 by beating Duke and dropping one of the road games at FSU or BC, because the selection committee would weigh more heavily a win against a top-25 RPI team rather than a loss on the road to a team with an RPI ranging anywhere from 100 to 150. 3-2 might even be good enough as long as one win is against Duke and the team can capture victory in at least one game in the ACC tournament. At that point, the Cavs would be 12-8 in the ACC (counting an ACC tourney win and loss) and 22-11 overall.
It all can truly make your head spin, and when you get down to it, a lot also has to do with how other teams on the bubble perform. ESPN's weekly bubble watch is usually a nice read that organizes all potential NCAA tournament teams by conference.
It can be found here:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch?id=146
Whatever happens, it has been a solid year for the 'Hoos, Sure, there have been the usual frustrations that come with being a fan of the Cavs, but this team has been fun watch, plays hard, and has rarely taken a play off. I guessed at the beginning of the year that Virginia would go 16-14 overall and 8-10 in the conference in the regular season. The team is actually going to play 31 games overall so make that overall record either 17-14 or 16-15. Either way, 18 wins has exceeded my expectations and, barring an epic collapse, the team will finish with more conference victories than I predicted, too.
The best news of the night for Cavalier fans? Maryland's loss to Boston College. With the Terps' bubble potentially having burst, Virginia can feel a little comfortable in its "last four in" spot, despite the loss to Miami. A loss to Maryland in the season finale though...
ReplyDeleteI was just going to say, Maryland is not out of it by any means. The Terps have an easier ending schedule than UVa IMO. And they have a higher RPI currently than UVa and they have that Duke win in their pocket already, something UVa wants to get. Maryland's last two games could be HUGE, assuming they win their next three over CLemson, Wake, and GT. Their final two games are home vs. UNC and at Virginia. The UVa-MD season ender could essentially be a Bracketbuster if you will.
ReplyDelete