The Wahoos struggled down the final stretch of the season -- including a poorly played ACC tournament quarterfinal 75-56 loss to N.C. State-- and was relegated to the NIT on Sunday. Virginia is a No. 1 seed and faces Norfolk State on Tuesday at John Paul Jones Arena at 9 p.m.
A few thoughts about the NCAA tournament and UVa's exclusion:
- I understand why Virginia did not make it and it has no one to blame but itself.
The Cavaliers were in the tournament, I believe, after the Duke win if that was the last game before the selection. But I knew they weren't a lock. I felt like they needed to win at least two more games in the regular season but they got just one, over Maryland, and lost by one and three points to Boston College and Florida State, respectively. A win over N.C. State in the ACC tourney quarterfinals probably would have been enough, too. But Virginia slipped after a strong start to the ACC slate and went just 2-5 in its final seven games including the loss in Greensboro to the Wolfpack.
At 11-7 in the ACC, Virginia probably would have gotten in had it taken care of business in the non-conference slate. Unfortunately, the 'Hoos lost to not one, not two, but three CAA teams (George Mason, Delaware, and ODU). The Delaware loss was at home and UVa missed out on a chance in that contest to go to Madison Square Garden in New York and play more highly rated teams Kansas State and Pittsburgh in the later rounds of the preseason NIT. Instead, UVa stayed home because of the loss and played North Texas and Lamar, two teams which had very bad seasons. This hurt UVa's non-conference strength of schedule. In the end, UVa lost too many games to teams it should have beaten. The Cavs had wins over Wisconsin, Duke, N.C. State, UNC and others but fell to the aforementioned three CAA teams and also Wake Forest, Clemson, and Boston College, all teams with RPIs less than 100. UVa did some good things, but it was counterbalanced by some bad things and the out-of-conference schedule was not good enough to overcome these deficiencies.
- With that said, UVa can make a case that it should have made the Big Dance.
As with fellow bubble teams that did not make it like Tennessee and Kentucky, part of Virginia's resume had the look of an NCAA tournament resume: top-100 RPI wins. UVa had eight of them. Middle Tennessee, which ended up being the final at-large team to make the field at 28-5, had one. What's more, the other final at-large teams -- Boise State, La Salle, and St. Mary's, along with Middle Tennessee -- combined for four top-50 wins, while UVa had six.
In the future, the 'Hoos need to schedule smarter or not lose to bad teams.
Losing in the preseason NIT hurt the 'Hoos this year. They really needed to get the semifinals of that preseason tournament to get a boost in the RPI. The Cavs need to make sure, though, they get more guaranteed games against marquee teams (not dependent on advancing in a tournament), whether at home or on the road. These games, even if losses, would bolster UVa's RPI. The other option, which would have been enough this year, is not lose to bad teams. If the Cavs win those three games vs. CAA opponents, then they are in easily, I think.
Virginia can make of the NIT whatever it wants. The Cavs are struggling recently. They've lost five of seven. But maybe it has been because they are tight and were on the bubble. Well, they have nothing to lose now. The season is almost over and UVa only gets a few games to improve and take a step toward building for next year. The team only loses one senior -- Jontel Evans. Otherwise, this is a young team that needs to get better and needs experience. How much more the team plays is largely up to the players. A down game and unenthusiastic attitude can get the 'Hoos beat by Norfolk State. But the Cavs are capable of winning the NIT if they play their best ball. They can play the first three games at home, too, if they keep winning, and JPJ has been kind to UVa this season. The semifinals and finals would be at Madison Square Garden. Would be ironic to get to MSG in the postseason NIT when the 'Hoos badly needed a trip there in the preseason NIT to give themselves a much-needed RPI boost, huh?
A few thoughts about the NCAA tournament and UVa's exclusion:
- I understand why Virginia did not make it and it has no one to blame but itself.
The Cavaliers were in the tournament, I believe, after the Duke win if that was the last game before the selection. But I knew they weren't a lock. I felt like they needed to win at least two more games in the regular season but they got just one, over Maryland, and lost by one and three points to Boston College and Florida State, respectively. A win over N.C. State in the ACC tourney quarterfinals probably would have been enough, too. But Virginia slipped after a strong start to the ACC slate and went just 2-5 in its final seven games including the loss in Greensboro to the Wolfpack.
At 11-7 in the ACC, Virginia probably would have gotten in had it taken care of business in the non-conference slate. Unfortunately, the 'Hoos lost to not one, not two, but three CAA teams (George Mason, Delaware, and ODU). The Delaware loss was at home and UVa missed out on a chance in that contest to go to Madison Square Garden in New York and play more highly rated teams Kansas State and Pittsburgh in the later rounds of the preseason NIT. Instead, UVa stayed home because of the loss and played North Texas and Lamar, two teams which had very bad seasons. This hurt UVa's non-conference strength of schedule. In the end, UVa lost too many games to teams it should have beaten. The Cavs had wins over Wisconsin, Duke, N.C. State, UNC and others but fell to the aforementioned three CAA teams and also Wake Forest, Clemson, and Boston College, all teams with RPIs less than 100. UVa did some good things, but it was counterbalanced by some bad things and the out-of-conference schedule was not good enough to overcome these deficiencies.
- With that said, UVa can make a case that it should have made the Big Dance.
As with fellow bubble teams that did not make it like Tennessee and Kentucky, part of Virginia's resume had the look of an NCAA tournament resume: top-100 RPI wins. UVa had eight of them. Middle Tennessee, which ended up being the final at-large team to make the field at 28-5, had one. What's more, the other final at-large teams -- Boise State, La Salle, and St. Mary's, along with Middle Tennessee -- combined for four top-50 wins, while UVa had six.
In the future, the 'Hoos need to schedule smarter or not lose to bad teams.
Losing in the preseason NIT hurt the 'Hoos this year. They really needed to get the semifinals of that preseason tournament to get a boost in the RPI. The Cavs need to make sure, though, they get more guaranteed games against marquee teams (not dependent on advancing in a tournament), whether at home or on the road. These games, even if losses, would bolster UVa's RPI. The other option, which would have been enough this year, is not lose to bad teams. If the Cavs win those three games vs. CAA opponents, then they are in easily, I think.
Virginia can make of the NIT whatever it wants. The Cavs are struggling recently. They've lost five of seven. But maybe it has been because they are tight and were on the bubble. Well, they have nothing to lose now. The season is almost over and UVa only gets a few games to improve and take a step toward building for next year. The team only loses one senior -- Jontel Evans. Otherwise, this is a young team that needs to get better and needs experience. How much more the team plays is largely up to the players. A down game and unenthusiastic attitude can get the 'Hoos beat by Norfolk State. But the Cavs are capable of winning the NIT if they play their best ball. They can play the first three games at home, too, if they keep winning, and JPJ has been kind to UVa this season. The semifinals and finals would be at Madison Square Garden. Would be ironic to get to MSG in the postseason NIT when the 'Hoos badly needed a trip there in the preseason NIT to give themselves a much-needed RPI boost, huh?
Great point about the Cavs' injuring themselves twice with those early season losses. I'm still not sure a better RPI would have gotten U.Va. in with their late-season slump though. Joe Harris is 17 for 57 since his 36 points against Duke. Aside from his struggles, what do you think are a few telling stats or keys to Virginia's failure, Aaron? Three-point shooting?
ReplyDeleteYeah 3-point shooting has gone way down. We were among the nation's best til the last several games of the regular season. Freshmen have also stopped contributing as much.
ReplyDelete