Louisville (34-5) vs. Michigan (31-7), 9 p.m. CBS
My pick in this one is pretty easy -- Louisville. And that is because the Cardinals are kind of my one shining ray in the mess that is my March Madness bracket. They were the only team in my Final Four to make it there. I have them beating Kansas in the title game, and while that can't happen, they can beat Michigan and win their third championship. For coach Rick Pintino, it would be his second. No men's college basketball coach has ever won two titles with two different teams.
At the same time, this isn't an easy pick. Michigan is playing really good basketball right now and controlled its semifinal against Syracuse -- arguably a better team than Louisville's opponent, Wichita State -- better than the Cardinals did. Sophomore guard Trey Burke, who won the AP's player of the year award and has become known in the tournament for hitting 30-foot 3-pointers with ease, is unlikely to struggle as much as he did Saturday, when he went just 1 of 8 from the field (the one shot he made was a 3-pointer from far, far away).
Nik Stauskas also had a bad game against Syracuse. He missed all four of his 3-pointers. Two games ago, against Florida, he dazzled by making all six of his 3-pointers. Surely he will make at least a couple, right?
At the same time, however, a freshman, Mitch McGary, has led the Wolverines in scoring in the tournament -- 16 points and 11.6 rebounds per game, after recording just 7.5 ppg and 6.3 rpg during the season. Can he keep up his improved pace?
Michigan had some problems with Syracuse's vaunted zone and now it will have to deal with the press of Louisville, which really helped it get back in the game against Wichita State. Michigan only turns the ball over 9.4 times per game, however, which leads the nation. The Cardinals force 18.4 turnovers per game this season so something has to give.
Louisville has won 15 games in a row. Russ Smith has been russ-diculous (a term Pitino uses for some of the ill-advised shots Smith has taken in his career) in a good way in the tournament, averaging 25 ppg on 50 percent shooting. Gorgui Dieng cleans up in the middle, grabbing 9.4 rpg. He also scores 9.8 ppg. Peyton Siva brings senior leadership to the team. A transfer from George Mason, Luke Hancock (Roanoke) scored 20 points off the bench against the Shockers. On his bio on Louisville's website, it says Hancock though about transferring to Virginia, Virginia Tech, and, yep ... Michigan before settling on Louisville.
In the end, I think Louisville has more experience than Michigan (the Wolverines start three freshmen) and the Cards have an extra motivating factor of trying to win it for fallen sixth man Kevin Ware who broke his leg against Duke. Louisville players have stepped up in his absence, too. Against the Shockers, walk-on Tim Henderson scored six points on back-to-back 3-pointers.
Louisville 68, Michigan 64
My pick in this one is pretty easy -- Louisville. And that is because the Cardinals are kind of my one shining ray in the mess that is my March Madness bracket. They were the only team in my Final Four to make it there. I have them beating Kansas in the title game, and while that can't happen, they can beat Michigan and win their third championship. For coach Rick Pintino, it would be his second. No men's college basketball coach has ever won two titles with two different teams.
At the same time, this isn't an easy pick. Michigan is playing really good basketball right now and controlled its semifinal against Syracuse -- arguably a better team than Louisville's opponent, Wichita State -- better than the Cardinals did. Sophomore guard Trey Burke, who won the AP's player of the year award and has become known in the tournament for hitting 30-foot 3-pointers with ease, is unlikely to struggle as much as he did Saturday, when he went just 1 of 8 from the field (the one shot he made was a 3-pointer from far, far away).
Nik Stauskas also had a bad game against Syracuse. He missed all four of his 3-pointers. Two games ago, against Florida, he dazzled by making all six of his 3-pointers. Surely he will make at least a couple, right?
At the same time, however, a freshman, Mitch McGary, has led the Wolverines in scoring in the tournament -- 16 points and 11.6 rebounds per game, after recording just 7.5 ppg and 6.3 rpg during the season. Can he keep up his improved pace?
Michigan had some problems with Syracuse's vaunted zone and now it will have to deal with the press of Louisville, which really helped it get back in the game against Wichita State. Michigan only turns the ball over 9.4 times per game, however, which leads the nation. The Cardinals force 18.4 turnovers per game this season so something has to give.
Louisville has won 15 games in a row. Russ Smith has been russ-diculous (a term Pitino uses for some of the ill-advised shots Smith has taken in his career) in a good way in the tournament, averaging 25 ppg on 50 percent shooting. Gorgui Dieng cleans up in the middle, grabbing 9.4 rpg. He also scores 9.8 ppg. Peyton Siva brings senior leadership to the team. A transfer from George Mason, Luke Hancock (Roanoke) scored 20 points off the bench against the Shockers. On his bio on Louisville's website, it says Hancock though about transferring to Virginia, Virginia Tech, and, yep ... Michigan before settling on Louisville.
In the end, I think Louisville has more experience than Michigan (the Wolverines start three freshmen) and the Cards have an extra motivating factor of trying to win it for fallen sixth man Kevin Ware who broke his leg against Duke. Louisville players have stepped up in his absence, too. Against the Shockers, walk-on Tim Henderson scored six points on back-to-back 3-pointers.
Louisville 68, Michigan 64
R. Smith may have been ridiculous in the earlier tournament games, but he was a no-show against Wichita State. He was sick two weeks ago when he scored 35. Maybe he should hope for a last minute flu-- like Jordan!
ReplyDeleteWhat are your thoughts on the reffing during the tourney, Aaron?
I think it has been decent. Not great or bad.
ReplyDelete