After that 75-64 loss to Iowa to close out the season in the NIT quarterfinals last Wednesday, I'm finally ready to take my look back at the 2012-13 Virginia men's basketball season and peek ahead to next year, too. The Cavs finished the season with a record of 23-12.
I didn't wait over a week to write because I was mad about the loss. I got over it quite quick. First of all, it is the NIT. Second of all, I just had kinda told myself, that no matter what, I was proud of certain portions of the season but was ready to let go whenever it was going to happen.
I waited to write because I was exhausted from the season. I've been a hardcore Cavalier fan for over a decade now, and even though I know that isn't very long by some standards, I have experienced a lot as a Virginia hoops fan. I've seen a 22-win season, a 10-win season, and everything in between. I've seen teams make the NCAA tournament, the NIT, and even the CBI. I've seen a team win a Big Dance game. I've seen surprising wins and vexing losses. I've even seen Virginia win a game in the ACC tournament, but never more than one (the streak of ACC tournament semifinals appearances runs dry for another year; I think it's been since 1995 -- I was alive but not paying much attention to the Cavs yet). I've seen a team exceed expectations and I've seen a team fall short of expectations. But I'm not sure I've experienced a season quite like this one, with all the ups and downs and inconsistencies and unpredictability from game to game.
Coming into the season, I predicted a 16-14 overall record for this edition of the 'Hoos with an ACC record of 8-10. UVa actually ended up 21-10 in the regular season; it played 31 regular-season games. If you adjust my estimate up to 17-14, Virginia still exceeded my expectations by four victories and by three wins in the ACC since the team went 11-7 in the conference. At the same time, UVa fell below expectations this year with many weird losses, more than I can ever remember, and they didn't get it done in crunch time.
Perhaps one of the only games this season that went the way I expected was the opener at George Mason. I wrote before that game -- I think it was the same time I made my season prediction -- that a young UVa squad without Jontel Evans at point (he was injured) would probably struggle on the road at a quality CAA team and have a good chance of losing. The Cavs lost 63-59 to the Patriots.
After an unexciting home-opening win over Fairfield, Virginia faced Delaware in the preseason NIT quarterfinals with a trip to New York on the line. The Cavs fell behind by double digits early and never quite recovered, losing 59-53. This loss was perhaps the most significant all season because it caused Virginia to miss out on two quality games at Madison Square Garden vs. Pittsburgh and Kansas State that could have helped UVa possibly make the NCAA tournament because of a bump in strength of schedule. Instead, UVa beat up on lesser foes Lamar and North Texas at John Paul Jones Arena.
Virginia proceeded to cruise through eight straight victories, one of the best of which was a victory at Wisconsin, which has to be one of the more confusing results of the entire college basketball season. Wisconsin is perennially good at home (only two other losses there this year, one to strong
Michigan State and another strange one to Purdue) and Virginia was pretty bad on the road this season. Yet, the Cavaliers beat the Badgers at their own slow, defensive-minded game, 60-54. Virginia followed up this win with another nice win, at home against Tennessee.
By this point, the team was rolling and playing some of its best ball of the season. The team went into the holidays on a high but would soon come crashing down. On Dec. 22, Virginia faced Old Dominion in the inaugural Governor's Holiday Hoops Classic in Richmond. In classic Cavalier letdown fashion, the Wahoos lost to the Monarchs, 63-61, after being up by 10 early in the second half. ODU had one win at this point but was more talented than its record. Still, I thought a win over us would spark its season and the Monarchs would end up with at least 10 wins, maybe more. It was not to be. The Monarchs tallied five -- FIVE! -- 'W's all season and fired their drunken coach, Blaine Taylor, midway through. The ODU loss was obviously another huge drain on the Cavs' NCAA tournament resume.
The Cavs rebounded quickly, however, destroying Wofford at home and then surging past UNC at JPJ with a strong second-half effort. Virginia then dropped two winnable games at Wake Forest and at Clemson, igniting the Cavs' woes on the road all season. A pattern soon developed as Virginia again rebounded, walloping Florida State at home by 20. These guys could play some ball in Cville. On the road, the Cavs were average or below average. But they could straight ball at home. Virginia next got a rare road win at Virginia Tech and then took care of Boston College at home before hosting a strong N.C. State squad. Once again, a stellar second half sent the 'Hoos to a win, 58-55. With lots of momentum, Virginia next faced Georgia Tech on the road on Super Bowl Sunday. The Cavs led by nine at the break and by six with 9:40 left but fell to the Yellow Jackets, 66-60. Another devastating blow -- the Cavs led on the road and had a chance to win a fifth ACC game in a row but crumbled down the stretch.
To say Virginia shook it off a few days later at home would be a major understatement. UVa jumped out on Clemson and never looked back in one of the more lopsided victories in school history, a 78-41 thrashing that got embarrassing. UVa then recorded another impressive victory, at Maryland. The 'Hoos next beat the Hokies at home to complete a season sweep of their in-state rivals.
Up next came huge road tests at UNC and Miami. If Virginia could've won one or both, it could've went a long way toward erasing some earlier bad losses. The team fell short, though, giving up 93 points to UNC in a 12-point loss and only 54 to Miami. Problem was, the team scored just 50 vs. the 'Canes.
The team came back home and brushed aside Georgia Tech before preparing for a big home
matchup vs. No. 3 Duke. Virginia got the signature win it needed and made Coach K shake in his shoes in the process when the 'Hoos rushed the court after the victory. Lots of fans thought Virginia had locked up a Big Dance bid but I was thinking we would need to win two of three down the stretch, and two of those games were on the road. In what ended up being the two most gut-wrenching losses of the season, the Cavs fell at Boston College, 53-52, and at FSU, 53-51. Virginia limped back home, hurting somewhat, and came out really flat against Maryland in the regular-season home finale. UVa fell behind 25-8 in the first half before rallying and winning in overtime, 61-58, clinching the No. 4 seed in the ACC tournament.
Now, it was believed Virginia needed only to beat N.C. State in the ACC quarterfinals to make the NCAA tournament. The Cavs played one of their worst games of the year, however, and lost, 75-58. As expected, Virginia's name wasn't called Selection Sunday and instead the 'Hoos had to gear up for the lesser NIT. Still, it ended up being a good experience for the 'Hoos. Virginia struggled to put away a feisty Norfolk State team in the first round and then sent St. John's packing in the second round with an easy win. In the quarterfinals, with the team looking to stretch its home winning streak to 20 games in the last game of the season in JPJ, Virginia lost to Iowa, again falling short of a trip to the Big Apple. So, despite the ups and downs, the season had come full circle -- Virginia just wasn't quite good enough to play on the big stage in New York and maybe that was a metaphor for the whole season. Virginia was really good at times, looking like it could beat any team in the nation, and then fell flat at inopportune times and was not quite ready for the bright lights of the NCAA tournament.
So how do we evaluate this season? It isn't easy. Virginia had some of the best wins I've seen in a long while, and also had some of the worst losses I've witnessed, too. It all added up to a "Yeah, but ..." season. Yeah, Virginia beat Wisconsin, but it lost to ODU. Yeah, Virginia beat Duke, but it lost to Delaware. In a span of 35 games, Wahoo fans were amazed and delighted and disappointed and sickened, and everything in between. I think we have to take a step back and look realistically at the season. Yeah, Virginia ended up maybe falling short of expectations at the end of the year. But those were adjusted expectations based on what the Cavaliers did during certain parts of the schedule and the potential they showed. I think the majority of fans were like me this season. Coming in, after losing an NBA-caliber player in Mike Scott, most fans
would have been happy with an above .500 record. I considered the NIT a long shot. Virginia surpassed those expectations and there was no doubt it would make the NIT. Even the NCAA tournament ended up being better than a long shot -- it ended up being perhaps just one more victory away. What fans saw this season was a youthful team finding its way in a complex system under coach Tony Bennett. They were amped up by the home crowds and backed down in the face of adversity on the road. It was a team that went through many growing pains but should end up being better for it.
MVP: Joe Harris. He fell off toward the end of the year, perhaps from sheer exhaustion, but he carried the scoring load for much of the year and almost single handedly led the 'Hoos to the upset of Duke with 36 points.
Most improved player: Akil Mitchell. The junior forward went from averaging about four points and two rebounds a year ago to being a force down low while averaging about 13 points and nine rebounds. He had 12 double-doubles, two more than Mike Scott did in 2011-12.
Most disappointing player: Jontel Evans. Coming back from a foot injury, the junior guard just never quite hit his stride. His offense, shooting, and even overall defense dipped a bit from last season. Another candidate would be Darion Atkins, who started off strong but never came all the way back after a shin stress reaction.
Best freshman: Justin Anderson. Early on, it looked like Evan Nolte, but he dropped off badly. Anderson dazzled all year with nasty dunks, growing leadership, and a charming attitude with the JPJ crowd. By the end of the year, he left no doubt he would be a force to be reckoned with. His jump shot improved and in three NIT games, he scored 57 points.
Most surprising freshman: Mike Tobey. The skinny, 6-foot-11 center with the weird-looking shot ended up being quite versatile for the 'Hoos. Had it not been for a mid-season bout with mono, he might have challenged Anderson for the above award. Tobey could not miss in a 19-point effort vs. Wofford and he had the crowd chanting his name vs. N.C. State when he poured in 13.
Best win: Duke. The Wisconsin win was arguably more valuable for the tournament, but Virginia was 1-17 in its past 18 games vs. the Blue Devils. The game was on national TV and everyone got to make fun of what a baby Coach K was afterwards. Joe Harris put on a performance for the ages.
Worst loss: Delaware. The ODU loss was very bad, too, but the Delaware loss was a double punch by hurting the 'Hoos' strength of schedule and by being a loss to a sub-100 RPI team.
Next year: Next year could be special. The 'Hoos lose Evans but presumably will get back a healthy Atkins and Malcolm Brogdon (oh yeah, him!), who never saw the court this year. Hopefully, Harris will develop more depth to his game and will get even harder to stop. If the 'Hoos can get even more weapons around him, he won't tire as the season goes on as much. One would expect Nolte, Tobey, Anderson, and Mitchell to all get better. Paul Jesperson will probably have a hard time finding the floor as much as this season but he is a capable 3-point shooter and understands team defense as good as anyone. Taylor Barnette is a proven scorer off the bench, a guy that can come in cold and drain 3s. Teven Jones adds further depth at point
guard behind Brogdon, who can play at the point or as a shooting guard. Virginia is adding two near top-100 point guards in London Perrantes and Devon Hall. Neither will play as good a defense as Evans did right away, but their offense should be better than his. Hall is more of a scorer, while Perrantes comes in as a heralded passer. The key will be at point guard. If that position gets stabilized early on by some combo of Brogdon, Jones, Hall, and/or Perrantes, Virginia could really make some early-season noise. Hopefully, the schedule sets up nicely with some good opportunities against good teams, which won't penalize the Cavs as much if they lose. On the down side, Notre Dame, Syracuse, and Pittsburgh all enter the ACC. They all made the Big Dance this past season, but none of those teams scare me. Next year's Virginia team can beat all those teams at home and maybe even steal one on the road. The league as a whole will be stronger next season. Virginia could end up with around the same amount of victories as this season, but they will be more valuable wins and harder-earned in a probably more difficult schedule than this past season's. Making the Big Dance and maybe even winning a game or two in it is the expectation for next season.
I didn't wait over a week to write because I was mad about the loss. I got over it quite quick. First of all, it is the NIT. Second of all, I just had kinda told myself, that no matter what, I was proud of certain portions of the season but was ready to let go whenever it was going to happen.
I waited to write because I was exhausted from the season. I've been a hardcore Cavalier fan for over a decade now, and even though I know that isn't very long by some standards, I have experienced a lot as a Virginia hoops fan. I've seen a 22-win season, a 10-win season, and everything in between. I've seen teams make the NCAA tournament, the NIT, and even the CBI. I've seen a team win a Big Dance game. I've seen surprising wins and vexing losses. I've even seen Virginia win a game in the ACC tournament, but never more than one (the streak of ACC tournament semifinals appearances runs dry for another year; I think it's been since 1995 -- I was alive but not paying much attention to the Cavs yet). I've seen a team exceed expectations and I've seen a team fall short of expectations. But I'm not sure I've experienced a season quite like this one, with all the ups and downs and inconsistencies and unpredictability from game to game.
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| Virginia MVP Joe Harris will be a senior next season. |
Perhaps one of the only games this season that went the way I expected was the opener at George Mason. I wrote before that game -- I think it was the same time I made my season prediction -- that a young UVa squad without Jontel Evans at point (he was injured) would probably struggle on the road at a quality CAA team and have a good chance of losing. The Cavs lost 63-59 to the Patriots.
After an unexciting home-opening win over Fairfield, Virginia faced Delaware in the preseason NIT quarterfinals with a trip to New York on the line. The Cavs fell behind by double digits early and never quite recovered, losing 59-53. This loss was perhaps the most significant all season because it caused Virginia to miss out on two quality games at Madison Square Garden vs. Pittsburgh and Kansas State that could have helped UVa possibly make the NCAA tournament because of a bump in strength of schedule. Instead, UVa beat up on lesser foes Lamar and North Texas at John Paul Jones Arena.
Virginia proceeded to cruise through eight straight victories, one of the best of which was a victory at Wisconsin, which has to be one of the more confusing results of the entire college basketball season. Wisconsin is perennially good at home (only two other losses there this year, one to strong
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| High-flying dunker Justin Anderson was this year's best freshman |
By this point, the team was rolling and playing some of its best ball of the season. The team went into the holidays on a high but would soon come crashing down. On Dec. 22, Virginia faced Old Dominion in the inaugural Governor's Holiday Hoops Classic in Richmond. In classic Cavalier letdown fashion, the Wahoos lost to the Monarchs, 63-61, after being up by 10 early in the second half. ODU had one win at this point but was more talented than its record. Still, I thought a win over us would spark its season and the Monarchs would end up with at least 10 wins, maybe more. It was not to be. The Monarchs tallied five -- FIVE! -- 'W's all season and fired their drunken coach, Blaine Taylor, midway through. The ODU loss was obviously another huge drain on the Cavs' NCAA tournament resume.
The Cavs rebounded quickly, however, destroying Wofford at home and then surging past UNC at JPJ with a strong second-half effort. Virginia then dropped two winnable games at Wake Forest and at Clemson, igniting the Cavs' woes on the road all season. A pattern soon developed as Virginia again rebounded, walloping Florida State at home by 20. These guys could play some ball in Cville. On the road, the Cavs were average or below average. But they could straight ball at home. Virginia next got a rare road win at Virginia Tech and then took care of Boston College at home before hosting a strong N.C. State squad. Once again, a stellar second half sent the 'Hoos to a win, 58-55. With lots of momentum, Virginia next faced Georgia Tech on the road on Super Bowl Sunday. The Cavs led by nine at the break and by six with 9:40 left but fell to the Yellow Jackets, 66-60. Another devastating blow -- the Cavs led on the road and had a chance to win a fifth ACC game in a row but crumbled down the stretch.
To say Virginia shook it off a few days later at home would be a major understatement. UVa jumped out on Clemson and never looked back in one of the more lopsided victories in school history, a 78-41 thrashing that got embarrassing. UVa then recorded another impressive victory, at Maryland. The 'Hoos next beat the Hokies at home to complete a season sweep of their in-state rivals.
Up next came huge road tests at UNC and Miami. If Virginia could've won one or both, it could've went a long way toward erasing some earlier bad losses. The team fell short, though, giving up 93 points to UNC in a 12-point loss and only 54 to Miami. Problem was, the team scored just 50 vs. the 'Canes.
The team came back home and brushed aside Georgia Tech before preparing for a big home
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| Akil Mitchell improved by leaps and bounds this past season, setting himself up for a monster senior campaign. |
Now, it was believed Virginia needed only to beat N.C. State in the ACC quarterfinals to make the NCAA tournament. The Cavs played one of their worst games of the year, however, and lost, 75-58. As expected, Virginia's name wasn't called Selection Sunday and instead the 'Hoos had to gear up for the lesser NIT. Still, it ended up being a good experience for the 'Hoos. Virginia struggled to put away a feisty Norfolk State team in the first round and then sent St. John's packing in the second round with an easy win. In the quarterfinals, with the team looking to stretch its home winning streak to 20 games in the last game of the season in JPJ, Virginia lost to Iowa, again falling short of a trip to the Big Apple. So, despite the ups and downs, the season had come full circle -- Virginia just wasn't quite good enough to play on the big stage in New York and maybe that was a metaphor for the whole season. Virginia was really good at times, looking like it could beat any team in the nation, and then fell flat at inopportune times and was not quite ready for the bright lights of the NCAA tournament.
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| At almost 7-foot, most surprising freshman Mike Tobey showed an ambidextrous touch around the basket and the ability to make the 3-pointer. |
would have been happy with an above .500 record. I considered the NIT a long shot. Virginia surpassed those expectations and there was no doubt it would make the NIT. Even the NCAA tournament ended up being better than a long shot -- it ended up being perhaps just one more victory away. What fans saw this season was a youthful team finding its way in a complex system under coach Tony Bennett. They were amped up by the home crowds and backed down in the face of adversity on the road. It was a team that went through many growing pains but should end up being better for it.
MVP: Joe Harris. He fell off toward the end of the year, perhaps from sheer exhaustion, but he carried the scoring load for much of the year and almost single handedly led the 'Hoos to the upset of Duke with 36 points.
Most improved player: Akil Mitchell. The junior forward went from averaging about four points and two rebounds a year ago to being a force down low while averaging about 13 points and nine rebounds. He had 12 double-doubles, two more than Mike Scott did in 2011-12.
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| The victory over Duke on Feb. 28 will go down in Wahoo lore. |
Best freshman: Justin Anderson. Early on, it looked like Evan Nolte, but he dropped off badly. Anderson dazzled all year with nasty dunks, growing leadership, and a charming attitude with the JPJ crowd. By the end of the year, he left no doubt he would be a force to be reckoned with. His jump shot improved and in three NIT games, he scored 57 points.
Most surprising freshman: Mike Tobey. The skinny, 6-foot-11 center with the weird-looking shot ended up being quite versatile for the 'Hoos. Had it not been for a mid-season bout with mono, he might have challenged Anderson for the above award. Tobey could not miss in a 19-point effort vs. Wofford and he had the crowd chanting his name vs. N.C. State when he poured in 13.
Best win: Duke. The Wisconsin win was arguably more valuable for the tournament, but Virginia was 1-17 in its past 18 games vs. the Blue Devils. The game was on national TV and everyone got to make fun of what a baby Coach K was afterwards. Joe Harris put on a performance for the ages.
Worst loss: Delaware. The ODU loss was very bad, too, but the Delaware loss was a double punch by hurting the 'Hoos' strength of schedule and by being a loss to a sub-100 RPI team.
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| Malcolm Brogdon averaged 6.7 points per game in 2011-12. His healthy return after missing a year is key for a strong season in 2013-14. |
guard behind Brogdon, who can play at the point or as a shooting guard. Virginia is adding two near top-100 point guards in London Perrantes and Devon Hall. Neither will play as good a defense as Evans did right away, but their offense should be better than his. Hall is more of a scorer, while Perrantes comes in as a heralded passer. The key will be at point guard. If that position gets stabilized early on by some combo of Brogdon, Jones, Hall, and/or Perrantes, Virginia could really make some early-season noise. Hopefully, the schedule sets up nicely with some good opportunities against good teams, which won't penalize the Cavs as much if they lose. On the down side, Notre Dame, Syracuse, and Pittsburgh all enter the ACC. They all made the Big Dance this past season, but none of those teams scare me. Next year's Virginia team can beat all those teams at home and maybe even steal one on the road. The league as a whole will be stronger next season. Virginia could end up with around the same amount of victories as this season, but they will be more valuable wins and harder-earned in a probably more difficult schedule than this past season's. Making the Big Dance and maybe even winning a game or two in it is the expectation for next season.
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