Continuing on with ACC football previews in the Coastal Division, these two schools are separated by "eight miles and two shades of blue" and their biggest rivalry is in basketball.
Duke
Last year: The Blue Devils went to a bowl game for the first time in 18 seasons, losing to Cincinnati, 48-34, in the Belk Bowl. Duke finished the season 6-7 and 3-5 in the ACC, fifth in the Coastal Division, so one streak that stayed alive was their losing seasons streak, which stretched to 19. Duke's biggest win was a final-minute victory over rival North Carolina to get to bowl eligibility. It was the Blue Devils' only win over a team above .500 all year. Duke closed the season with a challenging stretch of games, getting blown out by Florida State, Clemson, and Georgia Tech. Closer losses to Miami and Cincy rounded out a five-game losing streak. Duke's offense was good, scoring more than 31 points per game. Sean Renfree led the attack at quarterback, completing 67.3 percent of his passes for 3,113 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 10 picks. Conner Vernon and Jamison Crowder each had 1,074 yards receiving and eight touchdowns. A trio of running backs -- Jela Duncan, Josh Snead, and Juwan Thompson -- combined for more than 1,400 yards and seven rushing touchdowns. Duke's defense was once again its weak component, allowing more than 36 points per game.
Offense: Four starters return on the offensive line as does that trio of running backs. However, Renfree has graduated as has Vernon -- Crowder is back, though. WR Desmond Scott (66 catches) is also gone. Senior Brandon Braxton has moved over from the defensive secondary to help provide depth at receiver. One thing the receiving corps does have is length -- six targets stand 6-foot-2 or taller. Big junior Anthony Boone -- 6-foot, 230 pounds -- will start at QB. He started against Virginia last year when Renfree was out with an injury and completed 18 of 31 passes for 212 yards and four touchdowns. Overall, Boone completed about 51 percent of his passes for 531 yards, five TDs, and a pair of INTs. With him under center and the Blue Devils' returning more of a rushing attack, Duke is expected to operate on offense under more of a zone-read option than a passing game. If Boone can get comfortable in the pocket and improve his accuracy, the Blue Devils can take advantage of some mismatches with their tall receivers. This offense could be pretty good to very good again if both phases come together.
Defense: Seven starters return here, led by senior defensive ends Justin Foxx (46 tackles, 4.5 sacks in
2012) and Kenny Anunike (44 tackles, five sacks a year ago), who has been hampered by injuries during his career but has All-ACC potential. Also possessing all-conference potential is cornerback Ross Cockrell, who picked off five passes last season. For Duke to return to a bowl, the defensive unit will have to improve on these numbers: 105th in total defense, 107th in scoring defense, 101st in rushing defense, and 114th in pass efficiency defense.
Special teams note: Sophomores Ross Martin (kicker, 20 of 23 field goals a year ago) and Will Monday (punter, 44.6 yards per punt last season) both were Freshman All-Americans in 2012.
Schedule, notes, outlook: North Carolina Central, at Memphis, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Troy, Navy, at Virginia, at Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Miami, at Wake Forest, at North Carolina. Luckily for the them, the Blue Devils dodged both Clemson and Florida State in the Atlantic Division, but also they also aren't going to play Boston College, which would have been one of their better chances at a conference victory. Still, the Blue Devils have a decent chance to win all their non-conference games or at least go 3-1 in them, and could very well be 4-2 or 5-1 headed into the tougher part of their schedule. Key games against middling ACC squads like Pittsburgh, Virginia, and Wake Forest will once again determine whether Duke goes bowling for a second consecutive season; the Blue Devils feasted on weak teams last season. Like last year, it might take one good game against a winning team (UNC in 2012) to get to six wins.
Win-loss prediction: 5-7 or 6-6
North Carolina
Last year: The Tar Heels went 8-4 overall and 5-3 in the Coastal Division, tying Miami and Georgia Tech for first. The Tar Heels were ineligible for postseason play because of NCAA sanctions but their first year under new coach Larry Fedora, who came over from Southern Mississippi, was a success. He installed a spread offense and UNC scored the most points and gained the most yards in a single season in its history. If there is a statistic that tells me that Fedora is a good coach it is this: Southern Miss went to, something like, 17 straight bowl games and Fedora was responsible for the last several. In his last season in 2011, the Golden Eagles went 12-2 and won a Conference USA championship. Last season, however, Southern Miss went 0-12. Bryn Renner had a breakout year at quarterback for the Heels in 2012, throwing a school-record 28 touchdown passes while completing 65.4 percent of his passes for more than 3,300 yards and just seven interceptions. Giovani Bernard had a superb year at running back, rushing for 122.8 yards per game, a figure that placed him 11th in the nation. Quinshad Davis, Erik Highsmith, Bernard, and Eric Ebron were all benefactors of Renner's success as each piled up at least 40 catches. The quartet combined for more than 2,400 yards receiving and almost 20 touchdowns. UNC's defense was OK last season, ranking 53rd in scoring. It gave up 30 or more points in six games. Linebacker Kevin Reddick racked up 18.5 tackles for loss. Most of the time, the offense was so good that the defense didn't have to have a superb game.
Offense: Renner returns and so do most of his toys on offense. Highsmith is gone but Davis, who set a school record with 16 receptions vs. Virginia, is back. WR Sean Tapley (26 catches) and TE Ebron (40 grabs) return as well. In the running game, Bernard is gone as are three starting offensive lineman. The line
does, however, get back All-American candidate tackle James Hurst. A.J. Blue, a power running back who gained 433 yards and had nine touchdowns a year ago, will attempt to fill the void left by Bernard, as will Romar Morris, a speedier back who accounted for 386 yards and two touchdowns last season. I expect the Tar Heels to rely more on their passing game given Renner's experience and the fact that lots of receivers are back and neither Blue nor Morris will probably be able to have the impact that Bernard had on the UNC offense.
Defense: Seven starters return to a defense which was average last year. The entire secondary is back, but Reddick is gone as is disruptive defensive tackle Sylvester Williams, who totaled 13.5 tackles for loss and six sacks last year. Expect the leaders of the Tar Heel defense to be tackle Kareem Martin (40 tackles, 15.5 for loss in 2012), free safety Tre Boston (86 tackles, four picks last season) and cornerbacks Jabari Price (76 tackles) and Tim Price (498 tackles, four picks in 2012). The defense needs to get better for UNC to compete for an ACC title.
Schedule, notes, outlook: at South Carolina, Middle Tennessee State, at Georgia Tech, East Carolina, at Virginia Tech, Miami, Boston College, at N.C. State, Virginia, at Pittsburgh, Old Dominion, Duke. Like Duke, UNC was able to avoid having to play Florida State and Clemson this season. The Tar Heels will probably lose their first game at South Carolina, but they should win their other non-conference games. The contests that will probably decide the division happen early in the ACC schedule at the Yellow Jackets and at home against the Hokies and Hurricanes. North Carolina must get more consistent performances to have a chance at winning the ACC. Almost all of UNC's losses a season ago were to inferior teams. Too many times last year, the defense came up short. It gave up 28 points to Wake Forest, 39 to Louisville, 34 to Virginia Tech ( a win), 33 to Duke, 35 to N.C. State (a win), 68 to Georgia Tech, and 38 to Maryland (a win). Though the Tar Heels won three of those games a year ago despite a shoddy defensive performance, that might not be the case this season. Without Bernard, UNC loses a big part of its offense and it might not always be able to bail out the defense this year. If the defense can get better and if the offense doesn't fall off too much, North Carolina has a good shot at reaching the ACC championship game.
Win-loss prediction: 8-4 or 9-3
Duke
Last year: The Blue Devils went to a bowl game for the first time in 18 seasons, losing to Cincinnati, 48-34, in the Belk Bowl. Duke finished the season 6-7 and 3-5 in the ACC, fifth in the Coastal Division, so one streak that stayed alive was their losing seasons streak, which stretched to 19. Duke's biggest win was a final-minute victory over rival North Carolina to get to bowl eligibility. It was the Blue Devils' only win over a team above .500 all year. Duke closed the season with a challenging stretch of games, getting blown out by Florida State, Clemson, and Georgia Tech. Closer losses to Miami and Cincy rounded out a five-game losing streak. Duke's offense was good, scoring more than 31 points per game. Sean Renfree led the attack at quarterback, completing 67.3 percent of his passes for 3,113 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 10 picks. Conner Vernon and Jamison Crowder each had 1,074 yards receiving and eight touchdowns. A trio of running backs -- Jela Duncan, Josh Snead, and Juwan Thompson -- combined for more than 1,400 yards and seven rushing touchdowns. Duke's defense was once again its weak component, allowing more than 36 points per game.
Offense: Four starters return on the offensive line as does that trio of running backs. However, Renfree has graduated as has Vernon -- Crowder is back, though. WR Desmond Scott (66 catches) is also gone. Senior Brandon Braxton has moved over from the defensive secondary to help provide depth at receiver. One thing the receiving corps does have is length -- six targets stand 6-foot-2 or taller. Big junior Anthony Boone -- 6-foot, 230 pounds -- will start at QB. He started against Virginia last year when Renfree was out with an injury and completed 18 of 31 passes for 212 yards and four touchdowns. Overall, Boone completed about 51 percent of his passes for 531 yards, five TDs, and a pair of INTs. With him under center and the Blue Devils' returning more of a rushing attack, Duke is expected to operate on offense under more of a zone-read option than a passing game. If Boone can get comfortable in the pocket and improve his accuracy, the Blue Devils can take advantage of some mismatches with their tall receivers. This offense could be pretty good to very good again if both phases come together.Defense: Seven starters return here, led by senior defensive ends Justin Foxx (46 tackles, 4.5 sacks in
2012) and Kenny Anunike (44 tackles, five sacks a year ago), who has been hampered by injuries during his career but has All-ACC potential. Also possessing all-conference potential is cornerback Ross Cockrell, who picked off five passes last season. For Duke to return to a bowl, the defensive unit will have to improve on these numbers: 105th in total defense, 107th in scoring defense, 101st in rushing defense, and 114th in pass efficiency defense.
Special teams note: Sophomores Ross Martin (kicker, 20 of 23 field goals a year ago) and Will Monday (punter, 44.6 yards per punt last season) both were Freshman All-Americans in 2012.
Schedule, notes, outlook: North Carolina Central, at Memphis, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Troy, Navy, at Virginia, at Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Miami, at Wake Forest, at North Carolina. Luckily for the them, the Blue Devils dodged both Clemson and Florida State in the Atlantic Division, but also they also aren't going to play Boston College, which would have been one of their better chances at a conference victory. Still, the Blue Devils have a decent chance to win all their non-conference games or at least go 3-1 in them, and could very well be 4-2 or 5-1 headed into the tougher part of their schedule. Key games against middling ACC squads like Pittsburgh, Virginia, and Wake Forest will once again determine whether Duke goes bowling for a second consecutive season; the Blue Devils feasted on weak teams last season. Like last year, it might take one good game against a winning team (UNC in 2012) to get to six wins.
Win-loss prediction: 5-7 or 6-6
North Carolina
Last year: The Tar Heels went 8-4 overall and 5-3 in the Coastal Division, tying Miami and Georgia Tech for first. The Tar Heels were ineligible for postseason play because of NCAA sanctions but their first year under new coach Larry Fedora, who came over from Southern Mississippi, was a success. He installed a spread offense and UNC scored the most points and gained the most yards in a single season in its history. If there is a statistic that tells me that Fedora is a good coach it is this: Southern Miss went to, something like, 17 straight bowl games and Fedora was responsible for the last several. In his last season in 2011, the Golden Eagles went 12-2 and won a Conference USA championship. Last season, however, Southern Miss went 0-12. Bryn Renner had a breakout year at quarterback for the Heels in 2012, throwing a school-record 28 touchdown passes while completing 65.4 percent of his passes for more than 3,300 yards and just seven interceptions. Giovani Bernard had a superb year at running back, rushing for 122.8 yards per game, a figure that placed him 11th in the nation. Quinshad Davis, Erik Highsmith, Bernard, and Eric Ebron were all benefactors of Renner's success as each piled up at least 40 catches. The quartet combined for more than 2,400 yards receiving and almost 20 touchdowns. UNC's defense was OK last season, ranking 53rd in scoring. It gave up 30 or more points in six games. Linebacker Kevin Reddick racked up 18.5 tackles for loss. Most of the time, the offense was so good that the defense didn't have to have a superb game.
Offense: Renner returns and so do most of his toys on offense. Highsmith is gone but Davis, who set a school record with 16 receptions vs. Virginia, is back. WR Sean Tapley (26 catches) and TE Ebron (40 grabs) return as well. In the running game, Bernard is gone as are three starting offensive lineman. The line
Defense: Seven starters return to a defense which was average last year. The entire secondary is back, but Reddick is gone as is disruptive defensive tackle Sylvester Williams, who totaled 13.5 tackles for loss and six sacks last year. Expect the leaders of the Tar Heel defense to be tackle Kareem Martin (40 tackles, 15.5 for loss in 2012), free safety Tre Boston (86 tackles, four picks last season) and cornerbacks Jabari Price (76 tackles) and Tim Price (498 tackles, four picks in 2012). The defense needs to get better for UNC to compete for an ACC title.
Schedule, notes, outlook: at South Carolina, Middle Tennessee State, at Georgia Tech, East Carolina, at Virginia Tech, Miami, Boston College, at N.C. State, Virginia, at Pittsburgh, Old Dominion, Duke. Like Duke, UNC was able to avoid having to play Florida State and Clemson this season. The Tar Heels will probably lose their first game at South Carolina, but they should win their other non-conference games. The contests that will probably decide the division happen early in the ACC schedule at the Yellow Jackets and at home against the Hokies and Hurricanes. North Carolina must get more consistent performances to have a chance at winning the ACC. Almost all of UNC's losses a season ago were to inferior teams. Too many times last year, the defense came up short. It gave up 28 points to Wake Forest, 39 to Louisville, 34 to Virginia Tech ( a win), 33 to Duke, 35 to N.C. State (a win), 68 to Georgia Tech, and 38 to Maryland (a win). Though the Tar Heels won three of those games a year ago despite a shoddy defensive performance, that might not be the case this season. Without Bernard, UNC loses a big part of its offense and it might not always be able to bail out the defense this year. If the defense can get better and if the offense doesn't fall off too much, North Carolina has a good shot at reaching the ACC championship game.
Win-loss prediction: 8-4 or 9-3
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