Virginia
Last year: If there is one play that encapsulates 2012 for the Cavaliers -- one play that is burned in my brain, one that I can see over and over again in my mind's eye -- it would be Darius Jennings' drop of an almost perfectly thrown bomb by Phillip Sims against UNC on Nov. 15. The score was 27-13 early in the fourth quarter and Virginia's bowl hopes were on the line. The game was still within reach and UVa was 4-6, needing a victory over the Tar Heels and a win over Virginia Tech to get to bowl eligibility. It was 3rd-and-14 at the UVa 19-yard line. Sims dropped back and let an absolute missile go down the field. It was a high-arcing throw headed right for Jennings, probably around midfield or even a little further down the field, and no one was within five yards of Jennings. A catch would have been an easy touchdown that would have brought the Wahoos to within seven points of their rivals south of the border. But, it was not to be. The ball bounded right out of Jennings' arms and Scott Stadium -- about 2/3 full -- let out a groan that pretty much summed up the entire season. The 'Hoos went on to lose, 37-13, and fell the next week to Virginia Tech for the ninth straight time, 17-14. Virginia finished 4-8 for the second time in three years under coach Mike London and missed the postseason for the fourth time in five seasons. In 2011, UVa was 8-4 and went to the Chick-fil-A Bowl. The team was good, but not great. The Cavs were a handful of plays away from being 6-6 or maybe even worse. But, give the players and coaches credit. They got the job done and won the close games. A year ago, the story was different. Virginia lost to the Hokies by three points (after being up 14-7), to Louisiana Tech 44-38 (after being up 24-10), to Duke 42-17 (after being up 17-14 at halftime), to Maryland 27-20, and to Wake Forest 16-10. Plus, as I elaborated, the game vs. the Tar Heels was within reach. If a few positive plays had been made, Virginia could have won that one, too. UVa needed just two more wins to get to six and bowl eligibility. As I've shown, the Wahoos had at least five games they could have won with better play down the stretch -- six if you count UNC -- which could have gotten them to nine or 10 wins on the season. You might say no team pulls out all the games and that's true, but basically, if Virginia could have done just a little better, had just a little more luck, then six wins was easily there for the taking. Instead, UVa was 4-8, 2-6 in the ACC, which was last in the Coastal Division. The Cavs must find a way to play better in the clutch in 2013 against what is going to be a tough
schedule.
Michael Rocco and Sims split time at QB last year and it was a disaster. Both played well in stretches but it was obviously not good enough to put together a solid season. Rocco completed 60.5 percent of his passes for 1,917 yards, 13 touchdowns and 10 picks. Sims completed 56.2 percent of his throws for 1,263 yards, nine TDs, and four picks. At running back, Kevin Parks led the way, gaining 734 yards and scoring five TDs. Perry Jones was not as electric as in 2011 and finished with 463 yards and two scores. The offensive line was not nearly as good as in 2011, which is what I mostly blame the lack of a running game on. Oftentimes, Virginia was faced with a third- or fourth-and-short, and could not convert. At receiver, Jones had 49 catches, which probably isn't a great sign that a RB was the leading receiver. Jennings was close behind with 48 catches, and Dominique Terrell had 38. E.J. Scott had 29 and Jake McGee recorded 28 catches, several of the spectacular variety. On defense, Virginia gave up 28.9 points per game, bending and breaking more than it did in 2011. Steve Greer had a terrific year at linebacker, racking up 122 tackles. The biggest problem for the defense was the lack of turnovers. UVa had only four picks all year and finished with just five turnovers overall. Freshman defensive back Maurice Canady had two of the interceptions.
Offense: A lot has happened in the offseason to Virginia football. On the offensive side, the Cavs have a new offensive coordinator, Steve Fairchild. Old OC Bill Lazor is now the QBs coach for the Philadelphia Eagles. Fairchild was most recently an offensive assistant for the San Diego Chargers and has also been head coach of Colorado State. Tom O'Brien, the former N.C. State head coach and a UVa assistant in the 1990s, is now the associate head coach for offense and the tight ends coach. Michael Rocco (Richmond) and Phillip Sims (Winston-Salem State) transferred and redshirt sophomore David Watford is now the quarterback. Watford took his redshirt last year but saw some time in 2011, rotating with Rocco for a few games. That year, Watford, of Hampton and the cousin of assistant coach and former UVa QB Marques Hagans, completed just 40.5 percent of his passes for 346 yards, three touchdowns, and four picks. Supposedly, Watford has made great strides since then and has been a real student of the game. Hopefully his accuracy has improved, too. Parks is back at running back, as is Khalek Shepherd, a back who has shown some promise but did not have a good year last year (same for the whole offense). Fans are eager to see Taquan Mizzell, a five-star true freshman from Virginia Beach and one of the best RBs in the 2013 national freshman class. He is expected to see time in the backfield and on returns. At receiver, Virginia returns just about all its weapons, though losing Jones in the passing attack could hurt. Senior Tim Smith is fully healthy for the first time in a couple years and is hoping to have his best season yet. Jennings, a junior, is capable of being great but needs to have less drops. Terrell worked on dropping catches less often a year ago and got a lot better. He could have a nice breakout season. Scott has shown potential and McGee is back to make more spectacular catches, although Zachary Swanson is ahead of him on the depth chart at tight end after playing fullback a year ago. He was out of position there, as Swanson is a lanky 6-foot-6. The offensive line loses Oday Aboushi but gets back a lot of experience, though the OL was not very good last year. I noticed a problem in Week 1 vs. Richmond when the line failed to consistently knock back the Spiders. Tackle Morgan Moses is the anchor of this line and hopefully he has a better 2013 than 2012 as he seemed to regress a bit, too. Virginia is hoping to establish the run even more in the new offense so the development of the line will be key. If it can come together, make progress, and play better overall this season, and UVa gets decent-to-solid QB play from Watford, Virginia has a shot at a successful season.
Defense: Jon Tenuta is the new DC for the Wahoos. He brings an aggressive approach to the defense that was missing a year ago under previous DC Jim Reid. Virginia is hoping Tenuta helps the Wahoos create more turnovers, something that was painfully missing a season ago. Throughout his career, Tenuta's defenses have typically done just that. Seven starters return and youth is everywhere for this unit. Only two of the 11 starters are seniors -- end Jake Snyder and tackle Brent Urban. Both are capable of disrupting the backfield as Snyder had 44 tackles -- 5.5 for loss -- and 2.5 sacks a year ago and Urban finished with 20 tackles -- 2.5 for loss -- and two sacks, plus a forced fumble and recovery in 2012. Elsewhere on the DL, sophomore David Dean will start at the other tackle spot and sophomore Eli Harold (36 tackles, seven for loss, two sacks, one INT), who has a ton of potential, will start at the other end. At linebacker, the loss of Greer and La'Roy Reynolds hurts and the group that will start here -- Daquan Romero (44 tackles in 2012), Henry Coley (40 stops, 4.5 for loss), and Demeitre Brim -- are untested in starting roles, especially Brim, who had just eight tackles a season ago. The secondary consists of all juniors. Demetrious Nicholson is back at corner for the 'Hoos for a third year and is an All-ACC preseason pick despite zero interceptions in 2012 -- something he hopes to change. The other CB is DreQuan Hoskey while the safeties are Anthony Harris (team-leading 48 tackles among returners) and Brandon Phelps. The secondary was decent last year but allowed some big plays and needs to get more interceptions. This 'D' has a lot of potential and talent but is still a little young and will also miss the leadership of Greer and Reynolds. During the course of the year, Tenuta should be able to turn this defense into a top-half-of-the-ACC unit. The 'Hoos will probably gamble more because of the new aggressive approach and will miss early, especially against Oregon. But as the year wears on, I expect to see a good amount of growth on this side of the ball.
Special teams note: The return game was terrible for Virginia last season. Shepherd, who was the primary kick and punt returner and displayed flashes of brilliance in 2011 on special teams, managed just 3.9 yards per return on punts and just 22 for kickoffs. Two things should infuse the return game and make it more exciting -- a coach with a wealth of experience, new hire Larry Lewis -- and the injection of the speedy and shifty Mizzell into the return game.
Schedule, notes, outlook: BYU, Oregon, VMI, at Pittsburgh, Ball State, at Maryland, Duke, Georgia Tech, Clemson, at North Carolina, at Miami, Virginia Tech. Virginia better wins lots of games in the middle part of its schedule, because the first two games and the last four are all probably better than a 50-50 chance to be losses. If Virginia can steal one of those first two games -- BYU being much more likely than the Ducks -- and one of the last four -- the Hokies, anyone? -- that puts a lot less pressure on that middle stretch. Either way, that is where UVa needs to make its hay. Those are the winnable games that will lead the Cavs back to a bowl. I think London is safe this year as long as the 'Hoos win four games. Less than that, and he will need to have a long chat with Craig Littlepage and assistant AD Jon Oliver after the season. Four games should not be a hard benchmark to reach. The schedule is challenging, but four wins -- I see VMI, Ball State, Duke, Pittsburgh/Maryland/Georgia Tech as candidates -- is easily attainable. Finding those other two to get to six is what could be the challenge. Beating Va. Tech once in a blue moon would be great, too, and would almost certainly earn London another year or two. With the difficult schedule, Virginia could very well only win four games. To a point, I'd be OK with that. I'm looking for improvement from a year ago and that could happen and the win total could stay the same. Virginia needs to create more turnovers, give away less, and commit fewer bone-headed penalties that halt drives. And London needs to manage his timeouts better -- as evidenced by the end of the Virginia Tech game last year. O'Brien, a seasoned coaching veteran, should be able to help with that. Overall, this team has some promise. London has put together three really good recruiting classes in a row. The schedule has marquee games on it, and the program has a shiny new indoor practice facility that let's people know UVa is taking football seriously. All that's left to do is win. And that could be hard with this schedule, but six wins are there for the taking. This team is a year away from possibly being quite good, but I think the Cavs might come up a bit short this season of six victories. London's seat is safe, though, because the team will show improvement not only from last year, but during this season.
Win-loss prediction: 5-7 or 6-6
Predictions for this weekend:
Thursday: South Carolina 31, North Carolina 20
Saturday: BYU 20, Virginia 17
Georgia 28, Clemson 24
Alabama 27, Virginia Tech 10
LSU 23, TCU 16
Monday: Florida State 17, Pittsburgh 12
Last year: If there is one play that encapsulates 2012 for the Cavaliers -- one play that is burned in my brain, one that I can see over and over again in my mind's eye -- it would be Darius Jennings' drop of an almost perfectly thrown bomb by Phillip Sims against UNC on Nov. 15. The score was 27-13 early in the fourth quarter and Virginia's bowl hopes were on the line. The game was still within reach and UVa was 4-6, needing a victory over the Tar Heels and a win over Virginia Tech to get to bowl eligibility. It was 3rd-and-14 at the UVa 19-yard line. Sims dropped back and let an absolute missile go down the field. It was a high-arcing throw headed right for Jennings, probably around midfield or even a little further down the field, and no one was within five yards of Jennings. A catch would have been an easy touchdown that would have brought the Wahoos to within seven points of their rivals south of the border. But, it was not to be. The ball bounded right out of Jennings' arms and Scott Stadium -- about 2/3 full -- let out a groan that pretty much summed up the entire season. The 'Hoos went on to lose, 37-13, and fell the next week to Virginia Tech for the ninth straight time, 17-14. Virginia finished 4-8 for the second time in three years under coach Mike London and missed the postseason for the fourth time in five seasons. In 2011, UVa was 8-4 and went to the Chick-fil-A Bowl. The team was good, but not great. The Cavs were a handful of plays away from being 6-6 or maybe even worse. But, give the players and coaches credit. They got the job done and won the close games. A year ago, the story was different. Virginia lost to the Hokies by three points (after being up 14-7), to Louisiana Tech 44-38 (after being up 24-10), to Duke 42-17 (after being up 17-14 at halftime), to Maryland 27-20, and to Wake Forest 16-10. Plus, as I elaborated, the game vs. the Tar Heels was within reach. If a few positive plays had been made, Virginia could have won that one, too. UVa needed just two more wins to get to six and bowl eligibility. As I've shown, the Wahoos had at least five games they could have won with better play down the stretch -- six if you count UNC -- which could have gotten them to nine or 10 wins on the season. You might say no team pulls out all the games and that's true, but basically, if Virginia could have done just a little better, had just a little more luck, then six wins was easily there for the taking. Instead, UVa was 4-8, 2-6 in the ACC, which was last in the Coastal Division. The Cavs must find a way to play better in the clutch in 2013 against what is going to be a tough
schedule.
Michael Rocco and Sims split time at QB last year and it was a disaster. Both played well in stretches but it was obviously not good enough to put together a solid season. Rocco completed 60.5 percent of his passes for 1,917 yards, 13 touchdowns and 10 picks. Sims completed 56.2 percent of his throws for 1,263 yards, nine TDs, and four picks. At running back, Kevin Parks led the way, gaining 734 yards and scoring five TDs. Perry Jones was not as electric as in 2011 and finished with 463 yards and two scores. The offensive line was not nearly as good as in 2011, which is what I mostly blame the lack of a running game on. Oftentimes, Virginia was faced with a third- or fourth-and-short, and could not convert. At receiver, Jones had 49 catches, which probably isn't a great sign that a RB was the leading receiver. Jennings was close behind with 48 catches, and Dominique Terrell had 38. E.J. Scott had 29 and Jake McGee recorded 28 catches, several of the spectacular variety. On defense, Virginia gave up 28.9 points per game, bending and breaking more than it did in 2011. Steve Greer had a terrific year at linebacker, racking up 122 tackles. The biggest problem for the defense was the lack of turnovers. UVa had only four picks all year and finished with just five turnovers overall. Freshman defensive back Maurice Canady had two of the interceptions.Offense: A lot has happened in the offseason to Virginia football. On the offensive side, the Cavs have a new offensive coordinator, Steve Fairchild. Old OC Bill Lazor is now the QBs coach for the Philadelphia Eagles. Fairchild was most recently an offensive assistant for the San Diego Chargers and has also been head coach of Colorado State. Tom O'Brien, the former N.C. State head coach and a UVa assistant in the 1990s, is now the associate head coach for offense and the tight ends coach. Michael Rocco (Richmond) and Phillip Sims (Winston-Salem State) transferred and redshirt sophomore David Watford is now the quarterback. Watford took his redshirt last year but saw some time in 2011, rotating with Rocco for a few games. That year, Watford, of Hampton and the cousin of assistant coach and former UVa QB Marques Hagans, completed just 40.5 percent of his passes for 346 yards, three touchdowns, and four picks. Supposedly, Watford has made great strides since then and has been a real student of the game. Hopefully his accuracy has improved, too. Parks is back at running back, as is Khalek Shepherd, a back who has shown some promise but did not have a good year last year (same for the whole offense). Fans are eager to see Taquan Mizzell, a five-star true freshman from Virginia Beach and one of the best RBs in the 2013 national freshman class. He is expected to see time in the backfield and on returns. At receiver, Virginia returns just about all its weapons, though losing Jones in the passing attack could hurt. Senior Tim Smith is fully healthy for the first time in a couple years and is hoping to have his best season yet. Jennings, a junior, is capable of being great but needs to have less drops. Terrell worked on dropping catches less often a year ago and got a lot better. He could have a nice breakout season. Scott has shown potential and McGee is back to make more spectacular catches, although Zachary Swanson is ahead of him on the depth chart at tight end after playing fullback a year ago. He was out of position there, as Swanson is a lanky 6-foot-6. The offensive line loses Oday Aboushi but gets back a lot of experience, though the OL was not very good last year. I noticed a problem in Week 1 vs. Richmond when the line failed to consistently knock back the Spiders. Tackle Morgan Moses is the anchor of this line and hopefully he has a better 2013 than 2012 as he seemed to regress a bit, too. Virginia is hoping to establish the run even more in the new offense so the development of the line will be key. If it can come together, make progress, and play better overall this season, and UVa gets decent-to-solid QB play from Watford, Virginia has a shot at a successful season.
Defense: Jon Tenuta is the new DC for the Wahoos. He brings an aggressive approach to the defense that was missing a year ago under previous DC Jim Reid. Virginia is hoping Tenuta helps the Wahoos create more turnovers, something that was painfully missing a season ago. Throughout his career, Tenuta's defenses have typically done just that. Seven starters return and youth is everywhere for this unit. Only two of the 11 starters are seniors -- end Jake Snyder and tackle Brent Urban. Both are capable of disrupting the backfield as Snyder had 44 tackles -- 5.5 for loss -- and 2.5 sacks a year ago and Urban finished with 20 tackles -- 2.5 for loss -- and two sacks, plus a forced fumble and recovery in 2012. Elsewhere on the DL, sophomore David Dean will start at the other tackle spot and sophomore Eli Harold (36 tackles, seven for loss, two sacks, one INT), who has a ton of potential, will start at the other end. At linebacker, the loss of Greer and La'Roy Reynolds hurts and the group that will start here -- Daquan Romero (44 tackles in 2012), Henry Coley (40 stops, 4.5 for loss), and Demeitre Brim -- are untested in starting roles, especially Brim, who had just eight tackles a season ago. The secondary consists of all juniors. Demetrious Nicholson is back at corner for the 'Hoos for a third year and is an All-ACC preseason pick despite zero interceptions in 2012 -- something he hopes to change. The other CB is DreQuan Hoskey while the safeties are Anthony Harris (team-leading 48 tackles among returners) and Brandon Phelps. The secondary was decent last year but allowed some big plays and needs to get more interceptions. This 'D' has a lot of potential and talent but is still a little young and will also miss the leadership of Greer and Reynolds. During the course of the year, Tenuta should be able to turn this defense into a top-half-of-the-ACC unit. The 'Hoos will probably gamble more because of the new aggressive approach and will miss early, especially against Oregon. But as the year wears on, I expect to see a good amount of growth on this side of the ball.
Special teams note: The return game was terrible for Virginia last season. Shepherd, who was the primary kick and punt returner and displayed flashes of brilliance in 2011 on special teams, managed just 3.9 yards per return on punts and just 22 for kickoffs. Two things should infuse the return game and make it more exciting -- a coach with a wealth of experience, new hire Larry Lewis -- and the injection of the speedy and shifty Mizzell into the return game.
Schedule, notes, outlook: BYU, Oregon, VMI, at Pittsburgh, Ball State, at Maryland, Duke, Georgia Tech, Clemson, at North Carolina, at Miami, Virginia Tech. Virginia better wins lots of games in the middle part of its schedule, because the first two games and the last four are all probably better than a 50-50 chance to be losses. If Virginia can steal one of those first two games -- BYU being much more likely than the Ducks -- and one of the last four -- the Hokies, anyone? -- that puts a lot less pressure on that middle stretch. Either way, that is where UVa needs to make its hay. Those are the winnable games that will lead the Cavs back to a bowl. I think London is safe this year as long as the 'Hoos win four games. Less than that, and he will need to have a long chat with Craig Littlepage and assistant AD Jon Oliver after the season. Four games should not be a hard benchmark to reach. The schedule is challenging, but four wins -- I see VMI, Ball State, Duke, Pittsburgh/Maryland/Georgia Tech as candidates -- is easily attainable. Finding those other two to get to six is what could be the challenge. Beating Va. Tech once in a blue moon would be great, too, and would almost certainly earn London another year or two. With the difficult schedule, Virginia could very well only win four games. To a point, I'd be OK with that. I'm looking for improvement from a year ago and that could happen and the win total could stay the same. Virginia needs to create more turnovers, give away less, and commit fewer bone-headed penalties that halt drives. And London needs to manage his timeouts better -- as evidenced by the end of the Virginia Tech game last year. O'Brien, a seasoned coaching veteran, should be able to help with that. Overall, this team has some promise. London has put together three really good recruiting classes in a row. The schedule has marquee games on it, and the program has a shiny new indoor practice facility that let's people know UVa is taking football seriously. All that's left to do is win. And that could be hard with this schedule, but six wins are there for the taking. This team is a year away from possibly being quite good, but I think the Cavs might come up a bit short this season of six victories. London's seat is safe, though, because the team will show improvement not only from last year, but during this season.
Win-loss prediction: 5-7 or 6-6
Predictions for this weekend:
Thursday: South Carolina 31, North Carolina 20
Saturday: BYU 20, Virginia 17
Georgia 28, Clemson 24
Alabama 27, Virginia Tech 10
LSU 23, TCU 16
Monday: Florida State 17, Pittsburgh 12
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