I went 5-1 last week in college picks and am now 32-5 on the season. This week's slate is highlighted by an ACC Atlantic clash in Tallahassee, the nerds at Northwestern playing in a meaningful game, and an upstart team from Seattle challenging Stanford for Pac-12 North supremacy.
No. 25 Maryland at No. 8 Florida State, Noon ESPN
Maryland has been a pleasant surprise for the conference, going undefeated so far. The offense has been good, and the defense has been good as well, which wasn't as expected. FSU is also undefeated. The ACC has four 4-0 teams for the first time in its history (the other two schools are Clemson and Miami). The Terrapins have had two weeks to prepare for this game, and I would give them a chance at home, but I think FSU will win this game in the Sunshine State. The Seminoles easily represent Maryland's toughest challenge so far this season. The Terps' wins are over Florida International, Old Dominion, Connecticut (winless), and West Virginia (before the Mountaineers' revival a week ago when it beat Oklahoma State). Maryland does have a chance if FSU has a performance similar to last week at BC, when it gave up 34 points in a win.
Florida State 28, Maryland 17
Michigan State at Iowa, Noon ESPN2
An under-the-radar Big Ten matchup sees two teams who are trying to get into the conversation for a Big Ten title. The Spartans, 3-1, have had two weeks to prepare after losing at Notre Dame two weeks ago. Iowa, also 3-1, has rebounded nicely after falling to Northern Illinois in the first game of the season. Expect the score to be low: Both defenses are ranked in the top 10 in the country with Sparty being No. 1 and giving up 13 fewer yards per game than any other team in the country. Both offenses have some rushing ability but find it hard to pass.
Iowa 13, Michigan State 10
North Carolina at Virginia Tech, 12:30 p.m. ACC Network
Virginia Tech showed some muscle and that it is a contender in the Coastal Division last week by winning on the road at Georgia Tech. The Hokies' defense has been fantastic and the offense has been serviceable. UNC is one of the more disappointing teams in the conference so far. Experts believed the Heels could challenge for a spot in the ACC title game but they are only 1-3 right now and struggling big time on defense, giving up 32.5 points per game (92nd in the nation). East Carolina ran up 55 points in Chapel Hill last weekend in beating the Heels 55-31. The offense is also not scoring at the clip it did last year. The passing game is pretty good but the rushing attack is ranked 112th in the country and is missing current Cincinnati Bengal Giovani Bernard terribly. This should be a good game for the Hokies to have some success on offense. Tech will be looking to get some revenge for losing at UNC last season, 48-34.
Virginia Tech 24, North Carolina 10
No. 3 Clemson at Syracuse, 3:30 p.m. ABC/ESPN2
Syracuse has won two straight games to even its record at 2-2 and has had two weeks to prepare for this game but I doubt it will matter. The Orange's wins were over Wagner and Tulane and losses were to Northwestern and Penn State. Clemson opened the season with its big win over Georgia, cruised past South Carolina State, struggled a bit vs. N.C. State, then got focused again and blew out Wake Forest a week ago. Look for the Tigers to look especially fast on the Carrier Dome's synthetic surface.
Clemson 38, Syracuse 17
Georgia Tech at No. 14 Miami, 3:30 p.m. ESPNU
The Yellow Jackets' offense just wasn't working last Thursday night against the Hokies. It could struggle again against the Hurricanes. Miami hasn't exactly played a murderer's row of opponents so far, but is sporting a victory over Florida. The Canes' 'D' is ranked 10th in the country in yards given up per game. Georgia Tech's defense is improved this season and should be able to keep it in this game for awhile but in Miami, I'll take the 'Canes.
Miami 27, Georgia Tech 23
No. 22 Arizona State vs. Notre Dame in Arlington, Texas, 7:30 p.m. NBC
Coming off a national title game appearance a season ago, the Fighting Irish have just been average this season. They've suffered losses to Michigan and Oklahoma. ASU is a very solid football team with just a loss at Pac-12 frontrunner Stanford. The Sun Devil offense is very good, especially the passing attack, and the defense has been a work in progress. Luckily for it, Notre Dame's offense hasn't been anything special thus far, either. This challenge could maybe prove to great in South Bend, but on a neutral field, I like the Sun Devils.
Arizona State 27, Notre Dame 24
No. 4 Ohio State at No. 16 Northwestern, 8 p.m. ABC
Ohio State is undefeated but has shown some vulnerabilities this season, giving up 20 points to a terrible Buffalo team, 34 to Cal, and had a hard time putting away Wisconsin a week ago at home. The Buckeyes haven't been tested too much so far this season but they have been more tested than the Wildcats, who are also 4-0 but have beaten the likes of Cal, Syracuse, Western Michigan, and Maine. This is the biggest home game for Northwestern in awhile and it hasn't beaten a top-5 team in 35 years but I don't think this is the year, even though I like the Wildcats and want them to pull off this upset.
Ohio State 38, Northwestern 28
No. 15 Washington at No. 5 Stanford, 10:30 p.m. ESPN
Both of these perfect 4-0 teams are challenging for the top of the Pac-12 North. Washington actually has better wins than Stanford, handing the only losses of the season to both Arizona and Illinois. Stanford hasn't been challenged by anyone yet. The Cardinal's toughest game came against then-undefeated Arizona State and Stanford easily downed the Sun Devils 42-28 (it was 39-7 after three quarters). I really like the Huskies, but I think Stanford has another gear it has rarely had to use thus far this year.
Stanford 30, Washington 26
Ball State at Virginia, Noon Comcast SportsNet
The Cardinals, out of the Mid-American Conference, come into this game 4-1, with wins over FCS foe Illinois State, Army, Eastern Michigan, and Toledo. They lost to North Texas, 34-27. Nothing extremely exciting on their resume but certainly a solid team.
Simply put, the Virginia offense must produce. A defense can only do so much. No one is going to be mistaking Virginia's defense for Alabama's defense anytime soon and even the Crimson Tide has had pretty good offenses lately. Virginia's defense could have a good game and the team will still lose if the offense doesn't show some improvements.
The good news for the offense is that it gets a second straight poor defense to try to get better against. Ball State ranks 85th in total defense, tied for 101st in rushing defense (for reference, Pitt is 71st but that number shot up after its performance against UVa), and 58th in passing defense. What this means is hopefully Virginia can get its running game going. If it can do that, things might open up in the passing game a little as Ball State packs defenders in the box and the offense can get on a roll. Kevin Parks got no help last week but this week, the junior running back should be joined by a healthy Khalek Shepherd and better Taquan Mizzell, who has been out since sometime in the Oregon game. Additionally, the offensive line has been shook up in an effort to get something going there. True freshman Eric Smith is going to start at right tackle. Jay Whitmire is moving from right tackle to right guard and Cody Wallace, filling in for the injured Conner Davis the past two weeks, isn't starting.
The wide receiver position is also a bit of a mystery heading into Saturday's tilt against the Cardinals.
Receivers dropped an alarming 10 balls against Pittsburgh, not helping David Watford's cause at QB all. They would have made a Dave Letterman top-10 list for worst receiving corps last weekend (Letterman is a Ball State alum). Every spot on the depth chart for WR had an "or" this week, meaning competition was open at practice and the starters might not necessarily be Tim Smith, Darius Jennings, and Dominique Terrell. Expect to see more of Adrian Gamble, Kyle Dockins, Keeon Johnson, Miles Gooch, E.J. Scott, and Canaan Severin. Any of those guys are threats to see more time than the first three guys. Watford hasn't been extremely accurate this year but the receivers have to do their jobs as well.
I expect the offense to show improvement this week. How could it not? It just has to gain more than 188 yards and score more than three points, which is what it did last Saturday. With that said, there are things going in its favor. Last week's game was on the road at a Pitt stadium not exactly known for exciting crowds. Now, based on Virginia's play against the Panthers, the crowd could be slim at Scott Stadium, in the 40,000-45,000 range. But, if the offense produces and the defense keeps up its great play, the crowd will respond and it will get loud. The Wahoo faithful are starving and thirsting for a breakout performance. Not only should the home atmosphere give the offense a boost, but the personnel changes could help in two ways. One, they actually could help, in that, for some reason, this combo on the offensive line might just work and the new receivers will drop fewer balls. The other way is hopefully the potential changes lit a fire under the players' butts this week. Smith, Jennings, and Terrell should realize that their jobs aren't safe and that they have to perform better. The offense knows it is holding the team back and knows the season could be successful if it gets better. So hopefully there has been a renewed focus at practice this week and the offense is just playing better in general. Another thing that can help the offense is the return of a healthy Shepherd and Mizzell (though I'm more suspect on Mizzell).
We will see what happens but I think the offense will show a spark. Will it be enough? Tough to tell. Unfortunately, though the Cardinals' defense isn't very good, the offense is. The passing attack is averaging 335 yards per game (10th in the nation) and the team is putting up 40 points per game. No one is going to think that Ball State looks like Oregon, but watch out for the QB-WR combo of Keith Wenning (64.1 percent, 1,650 yards, nine TDs, three INTs) and Willie Snead (35 catches for 611 yards and four TDs; Snead's father played at UVa as a WR for two seasons in the mid '80s). Virginia will have its hands full stopping another lethal passing attack.
In the end, I think the offense will show a heartbeat but still won't produce enough to win the game. Virginia will fall to 2-3 with a huge uphill climb to salvage the season and perhaps parts of this coaching staff.
Ball State 17, Virginia 13
No. 25 Maryland at No. 8 Florida State, Noon ESPN
Maryland has been a pleasant surprise for the conference, going undefeated so far. The offense has been good, and the defense has been good as well, which wasn't as expected. FSU is also undefeated. The ACC has four 4-0 teams for the first time in its history (the other two schools are Clemson and Miami). The Terrapins have had two weeks to prepare for this game, and I would give them a chance at home, but I think FSU will win this game in the Sunshine State. The Seminoles easily represent Maryland's toughest challenge so far this season. The Terps' wins are over Florida International, Old Dominion, Connecticut (winless), and West Virginia (before the Mountaineers' revival a week ago when it beat Oklahoma State). Maryland does have a chance if FSU has a performance similar to last week at BC, when it gave up 34 points in a win.
Florida State 28, Maryland 17
Michigan State at Iowa, Noon ESPN2
An under-the-radar Big Ten matchup sees two teams who are trying to get into the conversation for a Big Ten title. The Spartans, 3-1, have had two weeks to prepare after losing at Notre Dame two weeks ago. Iowa, also 3-1, has rebounded nicely after falling to Northern Illinois in the first game of the season. Expect the score to be low: Both defenses are ranked in the top 10 in the country with Sparty being No. 1 and giving up 13 fewer yards per game than any other team in the country. Both offenses have some rushing ability but find it hard to pass.
Iowa 13, Michigan State 10
North Carolina at Virginia Tech, 12:30 p.m. ACC Network
Virginia Tech showed some muscle and that it is a contender in the Coastal Division last week by winning on the road at Georgia Tech. The Hokies' defense has been fantastic and the offense has been serviceable. UNC is one of the more disappointing teams in the conference so far. Experts believed the Heels could challenge for a spot in the ACC title game but they are only 1-3 right now and struggling big time on defense, giving up 32.5 points per game (92nd in the nation). East Carolina ran up 55 points in Chapel Hill last weekend in beating the Heels 55-31. The offense is also not scoring at the clip it did last year. The passing game is pretty good but the rushing attack is ranked 112th in the country and is missing current Cincinnati Bengal Giovani Bernard terribly. This should be a good game for the Hokies to have some success on offense. Tech will be looking to get some revenge for losing at UNC last season, 48-34.
Virginia Tech 24, North Carolina 10
No. 3 Clemson at Syracuse, 3:30 p.m. ABC/ESPN2
Syracuse has won two straight games to even its record at 2-2 and has had two weeks to prepare for this game but I doubt it will matter. The Orange's wins were over Wagner and Tulane and losses were to Northwestern and Penn State. Clemson opened the season with its big win over Georgia, cruised past South Carolina State, struggled a bit vs. N.C. State, then got focused again and blew out Wake Forest a week ago. Look for the Tigers to look especially fast on the Carrier Dome's synthetic surface.
Clemson 38, Syracuse 17
Georgia Tech at No. 14 Miami, 3:30 p.m. ESPNU
The Yellow Jackets' offense just wasn't working last Thursday night against the Hokies. It could struggle again against the Hurricanes. Miami hasn't exactly played a murderer's row of opponents so far, but is sporting a victory over Florida. The Canes' 'D' is ranked 10th in the country in yards given up per game. Georgia Tech's defense is improved this season and should be able to keep it in this game for awhile but in Miami, I'll take the 'Canes.
Miami 27, Georgia Tech 23
No. 22 Arizona State vs. Notre Dame in Arlington, Texas, 7:30 p.m. NBC
Coming off a national title game appearance a season ago, the Fighting Irish have just been average this season. They've suffered losses to Michigan and Oklahoma. ASU is a very solid football team with just a loss at Pac-12 frontrunner Stanford. The Sun Devil offense is very good, especially the passing attack, and the defense has been a work in progress. Luckily for it, Notre Dame's offense hasn't been anything special thus far, either. This challenge could maybe prove to great in South Bend, but on a neutral field, I like the Sun Devils.
Arizona State 27, Notre Dame 24
No. 4 Ohio State at No. 16 Northwestern, 8 p.m. ABC
Ohio State is undefeated but has shown some vulnerabilities this season, giving up 20 points to a terrible Buffalo team, 34 to Cal, and had a hard time putting away Wisconsin a week ago at home. The Buckeyes haven't been tested too much so far this season but they have been more tested than the Wildcats, who are also 4-0 but have beaten the likes of Cal, Syracuse, Western Michigan, and Maine. This is the biggest home game for Northwestern in awhile and it hasn't beaten a top-5 team in 35 years but I don't think this is the year, even though I like the Wildcats and want them to pull off this upset.
Ohio State 38, Northwestern 28
No. 15 Washington at No. 5 Stanford, 10:30 p.m. ESPN
Both of these perfect 4-0 teams are challenging for the top of the Pac-12 North. Washington actually has better wins than Stanford, handing the only losses of the season to both Arizona and Illinois. Stanford hasn't been challenged by anyone yet. The Cardinal's toughest game came against then-undefeated Arizona State and Stanford easily downed the Sun Devils 42-28 (it was 39-7 after three quarters). I really like the Huskies, but I think Stanford has another gear it has rarely had to use thus far this year.
Stanford 30, Washington 26
Ball State at Virginia, Noon Comcast SportsNet
The Cardinals, out of the Mid-American Conference, come into this game 4-1, with wins over FCS foe Illinois State, Army, Eastern Michigan, and Toledo. They lost to North Texas, 34-27. Nothing extremely exciting on their resume but certainly a solid team.
Simply put, the Virginia offense must produce. A defense can only do so much. No one is going to be mistaking Virginia's defense for Alabama's defense anytime soon and even the Crimson Tide has had pretty good offenses lately. Virginia's defense could have a good game and the team will still lose if the offense doesn't show some improvements.
The good news for the offense is that it gets a second straight poor defense to try to get better against. Ball State ranks 85th in total defense, tied for 101st in rushing defense (for reference, Pitt is 71st but that number shot up after its performance against UVa), and 58th in passing defense. What this means is hopefully Virginia can get its running game going. If it can do that, things might open up in the passing game a little as Ball State packs defenders in the box and the offense can get on a roll. Kevin Parks got no help last week but this week, the junior running back should be joined by a healthy Khalek Shepherd and better Taquan Mizzell, who has been out since sometime in the Oregon game. Additionally, the offensive line has been shook up in an effort to get something going there. True freshman Eric Smith is going to start at right tackle. Jay Whitmire is moving from right tackle to right guard and Cody Wallace, filling in for the injured Conner Davis the past two weeks, isn't starting.
The wide receiver position is also a bit of a mystery heading into Saturday's tilt against the Cardinals.
I expect the offense to show improvement this week. How could it not? It just has to gain more than 188 yards and score more than three points, which is what it did last Saturday. With that said, there are things going in its favor. Last week's game was on the road at a Pitt stadium not exactly known for exciting crowds. Now, based on Virginia's play against the Panthers, the crowd could be slim at Scott Stadium, in the 40,000-45,000 range. But, if the offense produces and the defense keeps up its great play, the crowd will respond and it will get loud. The Wahoo faithful are starving and thirsting for a breakout performance. Not only should the home atmosphere give the offense a boost, but the personnel changes could help in two ways. One, they actually could help, in that, for some reason, this combo on the offensive line might just work and the new receivers will drop fewer balls. The other way is hopefully the potential changes lit a fire under the players' butts this week. Smith, Jennings, and Terrell should realize that their jobs aren't safe and that they have to perform better. The offense knows it is holding the team back and knows the season could be successful if it gets better. So hopefully there has been a renewed focus at practice this week and the offense is just playing better in general. Another thing that can help the offense is the return of a healthy Shepherd and Mizzell (though I'm more suspect on Mizzell).
We will see what happens but I think the offense will show a spark. Will it be enough? Tough to tell. Unfortunately, though the Cardinals' defense isn't very good, the offense is. The passing attack is averaging 335 yards per game (10th in the nation) and the team is putting up 40 points per game. No one is going to think that Ball State looks like Oregon, but watch out for the QB-WR combo of Keith Wenning (64.1 percent, 1,650 yards, nine TDs, three INTs) and Willie Snead (35 catches for 611 yards and four TDs; Snead's father played at UVa as a WR for two seasons in the mid '80s). Virginia will have its hands full stopping another lethal passing attack.
In the end, I think the offense will show a heartbeat but still won't produce enough to win the game. Virginia will fall to 2-3 with a huge uphill climb to salvage the season and perhaps parts of this coaching staff.
Ball State 17, Virginia 13
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