Note: If you haven't, vote in my poll on the right side of the page. How many games do you think Virginia will win this season?
As promised, here are my predictions for each game the rest of the regular season. This is my fourth year doing this. Last year, I guessed the Cavs would be 16-14 overall and 8-10 in the ACC and they ended up being 21-10, 11-7 ACC. Two seasons ago, I guessed the Wahoos would be 21-9 and 10-6 in the ACC and they ended up 22-8 and 9-7. In 2010-11, I estimated UVa would go 14-16 overall and 5-11 in the ACC and it went 16-14 overall and 7-9 in the conference. So just about every year, UVa has outperformed my expectations. Take that for what it is. But here is my breakdown this year:
vs. JMU - W 61-41
vs. VCU - L
vs. Davidson in Charlotte - W
vs. Navy - W
vs. Liberty - W
vs. Hampton - W
vs. SMU in Corpus Christi, Texas - L (the 'Hoos never seem to play well in their first neutral court game of any season)
vs. Texas A&M or Missouri State in Corpus Christi, Texas - W
vs. Wisconsin in ACC/Big Ten Challenge - W
at Green Bay - W
vs. Northern Iowa - W
vs. Norfolk State - W
at Tennessee - L
at Florida State - L (state of Florida losing streak continues)
vs. Wake Forest - W
at N.C. State - W
at Duke - L
vs. Florida State - W
vs. North Carolina - W
vs. Virginia Tech - W
at Notre Dame - L
at Pittsburgh - W
vs. Boston College - W
at Georgia Tech - W
vs. Maryland - W
at Clemson - L
at Virginia Tech - W
vs. Notre Dame - W
vs. Miami - W
vs. Syracuse - W
at Maryland - L
23-8 (13-5 ACC)
The record might not be a whole lot better than last year, but the schedule is, both non-conference and ACC-wise. Last year, Virginia played a few strength of schedule drainers in Lamar, North Texas, Old Dominion (to be fair, everyone thought the Monarchs would be good), Seattle, Mississippi Valley State, Morgan State, and Wofford. This year, Virginia mostly avoids those types of teams, though there will probably be a couple, such as Navy (8-23 last year), Liberty (15-20 last year but did make the NCAA tournament after winning the Big South tournament), and maybe Hampton or Green Bay. Still, the point is, Virginia should have fewer games this season against teams that are below, say, 200 in RPI. That will be a good strength of schedule booster come March.
Even if a few non-conference teams end up being worse than expected, an improved ACC should help boost UVa. Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse have been added to the league this season and are expected to be teams that could contend for a spot in the NCAA tournament.
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No. 14 VCU at No. 25 Virginia, 7 p.m. ESPN2
The Cavaliers get a look at "Havoc" tonight while the Rams get a taste of "Pack-Line." Two in-state teams with completely different philosophies square off in John Paul Jones Arena in a game being televised as part of ESPN's 24 hours of college basketball tip-off marathon. Virginia and VCU have not met on the basketball floor since 1998 but, apparently, this could end up being a budding in-state rivalry with both programs seemingly on the upswing. VCU coach Shaka Smart said this week that he and UVa coach Tony Bennett both talked about scheduling this game for a long time, ever since both arrived at their respective schools in 2009. Next year, the Cavs head down to the Siegel Center in Richmond to face VCU on its home floor.
Bennett and Smart were actually both assistant coaches with Florida coach Billy Donovan on the US U19 world championship team in the offseason, of which Virginia center Mike Tobey was a part. Both are from Wisconsin and each seem to have a lot of respect for the other. Smart, who is 36, said that Bennett, who is 44, is a legend in Wisconsin basketball lore. Bennett played for his dad on a successful Wisconsin Green Bay team in college and still ranks as the NCAA's all-time leader in 3-point percentage (49.7).
The Rams, one of the strongest "mid-major" programs in the country the past few seasons, come into this season highly regarded. Some experts even think they will reach the Final Four, something they did in 2011. The Rams are an experienced squad this year (all junior and senior starting lineup) and lost only two major contributors from last season -- Troy Daniels (12.4 points per game) and Darius Theus (seven ppg). In their season opener vs. Illinois State, the Rams easily cruised at home, 96-58. The score was 52-22 at the half. VCU was led by senior forward Terrance Shannon and junior guard Treveon Graham with 14 points apiece. Senior forward Juvonte Reddic (13), senior guard Rob Bradenberg (12), and junior guard Briante Weber (nine) rounded out the starters' scoring for the Rams. Weber also tallied eight assists, five rebounds, and five steals. Off the bench, sophomore guard Melvin Johnson had 11 and freshman guard Jordan Burgess had seven. The Rams shot 55 percent from the floor and made nine 3-pointers.
The Rams employ an aggressive pressure defense nicknamed "Havoc." They strive to make games up-tempo, the opposite of what Virginia tries to do. VCU will press and trap the Wahoos tonight, while Virginia's "pack-line," of course, seeks to stop teams in transition and make them play in the half court. It puts a premium on half-court defense. It will be a clash of two opposing styles. Ball handling will be very important for the Wahoos. VCU relies on turnovers to get its high-octane offense going, which feeds into
its pressing defense. Virginia had nine turnovers vs. JMU, which is good, but not great. Point guard Malcolm Brogdon had just two turnovers while London Perrantes had zero in his freshman debut. They need to be ready, as does the entire team, for VCU's pressure. I'm sure Bennett has coached them up and they have tried to simulate Havoc, but it will be another thing to see it from the Rams. Virginia needs to avoid passes into corners and make crisp, clean passes to be successful.
Virginia will probably need to shoot better than it did against JMU to win. The Cavaliers shot just 41.7 percent against the Dukes and made just four 3-pointers. They also only shot 50 percent from the free throw line (VCU shot 57.7 percent from the line in its victory). UVa had some success pounding the ball down low. If the 3-pointer seems to be escaping the guys again tonight, I think they should look to go down low more often than they did vs. JMU. Get some confidence going in the paint, and then eventually see if that extends out to the 3-point line. Now, if they let a few bombs fly early and they fall, then I say let them rip.
I just don't think at the point in the season that Virginia will win this game. The Cavs have never seemed to do well against presses, even during Bennett's tenure. Virginia's win over JMU was solid, but VCU was spectacular against Illinois State, a team that I would imagine is somewhat comparable to JMU (the Redbirds went 18-15 a season ago). The fans will be into the game (sold out, with around 2,000 VCU fans expected) and I think it will be an intense, close game. VCU is legit this year, and if UVa does lose, it will not be a bad loss by any means. Later in the season, I could see the Cavs winning this game, but I just think right now the Wahoos have too many questions regarding ball handling and breaking presses. I'm expecting VCU to win by four to eight points.
As promised, here are my predictions for each game the rest of the regular season. This is my fourth year doing this. Last year, I guessed the Cavs would be 16-14 overall and 8-10 in the ACC and they ended up being 21-10, 11-7 ACC. Two seasons ago, I guessed the Wahoos would be 21-9 and 10-6 in the ACC and they ended up 22-8 and 9-7. In 2010-11, I estimated UVa would go 14-16 overall and 5-11 in the ACC and it went 16-14 overall and 7-9 in the conference. So just about every year, UVa has outperformed my expectations. Take that for what it is. But here is my breakdown this year:
vs. JMU - W 61-41
vs. VCU - L
vs. Davidson in Charlotte - W
vs. Navy - W
vs. Liberty - W
vs. Hampton - W
vs. SMU in Corpus Christi, Texas - L (the 'Hoos never seem to play well in their first neutral court game of any season)
vs. Texas A&M or Missouri State in Corpus Christi, Texas - W
vs. Wisconsin in ACC/Big Ten Challenge - W
at Green Bay - W
vs. Northern Iowa - W
vs. Norfolk State - W
at Tennessee - L
at Florida State - L (state of Florida losing streak continues)
vs. Wake Forest - W
at N.C. State - W
at Duke - L
vs. Florida State - W
vs. North Carolina - W
vs. Virginia Tech - W
at Notre Dame - L
at Pittsburgh - W
vs. Boston College - W
at Georgia Tech - W
vs. Maryland - W
at Clemson - L
at Virginia Tech - W
vs. Notre Dame - W
vs. Miami - W
vs. Syracuse - W
at Maryland - L
23-8 (13-5 ACC)
The record might not be a whole lot better than last year, but the schedule is, both non-conference and ACC-wise. Last year, Virginia played a few strength of schedule drainers in Lamar, North Texas, Old Dominion (to be fair, everyone thought the Monarchs would be good), Seattle, Mississippi Valley State, Morgan State, and Wofford. This year, Virginia mostly avoids those types of teams, though there will probably be a couple, such as Navy (8-23 last year), Liberty (15-20 last year but did make the NCAA tournament after winning the Big South tournament), and maybe Hampton or Green Bay. Still, the point is, Virginia should have fewer games this season against teams that are below, say, 200 in RPI. That will be a good strength of schedule booster come March.
Even if a few non-conference teams end up being worse than expected, an improved ACC should help boost UVa. Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse have been added to the league this season and are expected to be teams that could contend for a spot in the NCAA tournament.
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No. 14 VCU at No. 25 Virginia, 7 p.m. ESPN2
The Cavaliers get a look at "Havoc" tonight while the Rams get a taste of "Pack-Line." Two in-state teams with completely different philosophies square off in John Paul Jones Arena in a game being televised as part of ESPN's 24 hours of college basketball tip-off marathon. Virginia and VCU have not met on the basketball floor since 1998 but, apparently, this could end up being a budding in-state rivalry with both programs seemingly on the upswing. VCU coach Shaka Smart said this week that he and UVa coach Tony Bennett both talked about scheduling this game for a long time, ever since both arrived at their respective schools in 2009. Next year, the Cavs head down to the Siegel Center in Richmond to face VCU on its home floor.
Bennett and Smart were actually both assistant coaches with Florida coach Billy Donovan on the US U19 world championship team in the offseason, of which Virginia center Mike Tobey was a part. Both are from Wisconsin and each seem to have a lot of respect for the other. Smart, who is 36, said that Bennett, who is 44, is a legend in Wisconsin basketball lore. Bennett played for his dad on a successful Wisconsin Green Bay team in college and still ranks as the NCAA's all-time leader in 3-point percentage (49.7).
The Rams, one of the strongest "mid-major" programs in the country the past few seasons, come into this season highly regarded. Some experts even think they will reach the Final Four, something they did in 2011. The Rams are an experienced squad this year (all junior and senior starting lineup) and lost only two major contributors from last season -- Troy Daniels (12.4 points per game) and Darius Theus (seven ppg). In their season opener vs. Illinois State, the Rams easily cruised at home, 96-58. The score was 52-22 at the half. VCU was led by senior forward Terrance Shannon and junior guard Treveon Graham with 14 points apiece. Senior forward Juvonte Reddic (13), senior guard Rob Bradenberg (12), and junior guard Briante Weber (nine) rounded out the starters' scoring for the Rams. Weber also tallied eight assists, five rebounds, and five steals. Off the bench, sophomore guard Melvin Johnson had 11 and freshman guard Jordan Burgess had seven. The Rams shot 55 percent from the floor and made nine 3-pointers.The Rams employ an aggressive pressure defense nicknamed "Havoc." They strive to make games up-tempo, the opposite of what Virginia tries to do. VCU will press and trap the Wahoos tonight, while Virginia's "pack-line," of course, seeks to stop teams in transition and make them play in the half court. It puts a premium on half-court defense. It will be a clash of two opposing styles. Ball handling will be very important for the Wahoos. VCU relies on turnovers to get its high-octane offense going, which feeds into
its pressing defense. Virginia had nine turnovers vs. JMU, which is good, but not great. Point guard Malcolm Brogdon had just two turnovers while London Perrantes had zero in his freshman debut. They need to be ready, as does the entire team, for VCU's pressure. I'm sure Bennett has coached them up and they have tried to simulate Havoc, but it will be another thing to see it from the Rams. Virginia needs to avoid passes into corners and make crisp, clean passes to be successful.
Virginia will probably need to shoot better than it did against JMU to win. The Cavaliers shot just 41.7 percent against the Dukes and made just four 3-pointers. They also only shot 50 percent from the free throw line (VCU shot 57.7 percent from the line in its victory). UVa had some success pounding the ball down low. If the 3-pointer seems to be escaping the guys again tonight, I think they should look to go down low more often than they did vs. JMU. Get some confidence going in the paint, and then eventually see if that extends out to the 3-point line. Now, if they let a few bombs fly early and they fall, then I say let them rip.
I just don't think at the point in the season that Virginia will win this game. The Cavs have never seemed to do well against presses, even during Bennett's tenure. Virginia's win over JMU was solid, but VCU was spectacular against Illinois State, a team that I would imagine is somewhat comparable to JMU (the Redbirds went 18-15 a season ago). The fans will be into the game (sold out, with around 2,000 VCU fans expected) and I think it will be an intense, close game. VCU is legit this year, and if UVa does lose, it will not be a bad loss by any means. Later in the season, I could see the Cavs winning this game, but I just think right now the Wahoos have too many questions regarding ball handling and breaking presses. I'm expecting VCU to win by four to eight points.
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