Orange Battle: Who's gonna get squeezed?

No. 4 Syracuse at No. 12 Virginia, 4 p.m. Saturday ESPN

The Cavaliers wasted no time Wednesday, drubbing Miami, 65-40. It was like they wanted to quickly dispose of Miami so they could focus on Syracuse. So I will do the same. Instead of looking back, let's look forward to Syracuse (26-2, 13-2 ACC).

This is the game everyone is talking about anyway. I don't think I've seen Charlottesville this excited about a sporting event for some time. The 2007 and 2011 Virginia-Virginia Tech football games in Cville with the ACC Coastal Division title on the line might be close, as would basketball games from time to time against Duke (last year and 2007 come to mind) but neither the Hokies nor Cavaliers were this good either of those years. Saturday's game is being called the most anticipated basketball game in maybe three decades in this town.

According to The Daily Progress' Whitelaw Reid, one anonymous season ticket holder sold a pair of tickets for a $1,500 profit while another was offered $5,000 for a pair of tickets. Insane. I was told that he didn't take that offer (by the sports editor, the article does not specify), that he wanted to go to the game. I respect that if true. The UVa hoops game that went for the second-most money on the secondary market was actually the North Carolina game of two years ago -- Virginia lost, 54-51 -- for a $92 average price per ticket. The average for this game is up to an astounding $339. So yeah, not even close.

As a sidenote, what do you think was the second-most pricey event on the secondary market in the state of Virginia all-time, including other events such as concerts? Well, according to Reid's story, it is the May 24, 2012 One Direction concert at the Patriot Center in Fairfax. The average price for those tickets got up to $279. The Patriot Center seats 10K, so less than JPJ, but not small by any means. I still find it hard to believe that the One Direction concert price would trump the Dave Matthews Band (little bias here) farewell shows of 2010 at JPJ or a host of other concerts such as Justin Timberlake, Jay Z, The Dead, Jimmy Buffett, etc. And Scott Stadium, while I know it is huge, has hosted two of the biggest acts in the world in U2 and the Rolling Stones. But One Direction it is, apparently. Sad. End sidenote.

Dick Vitale will even be at JPJ for the game. He has never been to JPJ and the last time he came to Charlottesville for a game was Feb. 28, 2002 when unranked Virginia beat No. 3 Duke, 87-84. For a good story on Vitale, check out Jerry Ratcliffe's article on him: http://www.dailyprogress.com/cavalierinsider/vitale-makes-long-awaited-return-to-charlottesville/article_684466e4-a01e-11e3-90fd-0017a43b2370.html

The stakes for this game are pretty simple if Virginia wins: The Cavaliers are ACC regular-season champions. Virginia hasn't won an outright ACC regular-season championship since the 1980-81 season. The last time UVa tied for first was the 2006-07 season, with UNC, though UNC won head-to-head that year. If Syracuse wins, the two squads will be tied in the loss category. If the season ends that way, Syracuse will have the No. 1 seed in the ACC tournament because of head-to-head tiebreaker and be considered the champs (there is no trophy for the regular-season champ, just bragging rights and ACC tourney seeding). However, Syracuse has two more games after this one, vs. Georgia Tech and at Florida State. Virginia has one, at Maryland, so if the Wahoos beat the Terps, they just need the Orange to slip up once to become champs. Still, the easier road would be to beat Syracuse.

C.J. Fair

Alright, once the hoopla subsides it will come to the game on the court. Let's get down to some nitty-gritty.

The facts. The Orange's leading scorer is 6-foot-8 senior forward C.J. Fair at 16.5 ppg (he also records 6.1 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.3 spg, and 0.8 bpg). He was the ACC's Preseason Player of the Year. Freshman point guard Tyler Ennis has been spectacular leading the show, tallying 12 ppg and 5.6 assists per game. He turns the ball over only 1.6 times per game for an assist-to-turnover ratio that ranks fourth in the ACC. UVa's London Perrantes ranks third while N.C. State's Tyler Lewis is first and Pitt's James Robinson is second. Ennis is also the best pickpocket in the league, averaging 2.1 spg. The Orange are not a spectacular 3-point shooting team, making 34.6 percent, which is ninth in the league. However, sophomore Trevor Cooney, averaging 12.8 ppg, can fill it up from 3, making 40.3 percent. He had 33 points and made 11 of 15 3s against Notre Dame on Feb. 3. Since then, though, he has been quite cold, making just 11 of his last 40 3s in six games. If he can get back on track, obviously that would be a huge boost for the Orange. Syracuse's main banger down low is 6-foot-8 forward Jerami Grant, who puts up 12.3 ppg and 6.9 rpg. He was pushed into the starting lineup when center DeJaun Coleman got hurt earlier this season. Six-foot-nine forward Rakeem Christmas rounds out the Orange's starting lineup, tallying 5.8 ppg and 4.8 rpg. Syracuse does not go very deep. Its two main reserves are Michael Gbinije (formerly of Duke and from Richmond) and Baye-Moussa Keita. They combine to average about 2.7 ppg and 2.8 rpg. Gbinije also averages 1.3 apg and is shooting 41.3 percent from beyond the arc, but he only has 34 attempts on the season. Syracuse has been dealing with other injuries besides Coleman. Grant tweaked his back in the Orange's last game against Maryland and only played 12 minutes and Baye-Moussa also missed a few games with an injury a couple weeks ago.

Tyler Ennis

Here are some more numbers on Syracuse, with ACC rank: The Orange score 68.8 ppg (ninth), give up 58.5 per game (third), hit 70.3 percent of their free throws (seventh) and 44.4 percent of their field goals (10th). The Orange allows teams to shoot 40.6 percent from the field (eighth) and 34.3 percent from 3 (11th). Syracuse grabs 3.8 more rebounds per game than its opponents (fourth), blocks 4.9 shots per game (fifth), and dishes out 12.3 assists per game (10th). Ennis is not the only thief on Syracuse. The team leads the league with 8.3 steals per game, nearly a whole steal more per game than UNC, which is second in that category. As such, the Orange boasts the best turnover margin in the conference (4.93).

One of the huge keys to the game obviously is going to be stopping or slowing Fair. Virginia has done a great job so far this year of locking down on teams' best scorers. Duke's Jabari Parker managed just eight points. Pittsburgh's Lamar Patterson had 10. Notre Dame's Garrick Sherman had eight both games.

Trevor Cooney

Virginia Tech's Jarell Eddie scored seven points both games. N.C. State's T.J. Warren, leading the league at a little more than 23 ppg, put up a measly four points on 1 of 9 shooting vs. Virginia. A couple have had success. Florida State's Okaro White had 15 both games. Boston College's Ryan Anderson, while not the Eagles' leading scorer, had 20, and leading scorer Olivier Hanlan had 14. Clemson's K.J. McDaniels exploded for 24 points. If Fair is at or above his average, big-time advantage Syracuse. If he is below 16 points, probably big-time advantage UVa.

As I said earlier, another key will be 3s. Can Cooney get his groove back? If he hits a few, it will open things up for Fair and others. If he is cold again, and Syracuse only hits a couple 3s all game, that could spell trouble. If the Orange can't hit 3s, they must clean the offensive glass. When Syracuse beat Duke in OT earlier this season, Duke had 15 3s and Syracuse had three. 15-3! And the Orange still won. That tells you that the Orange did a great job around the basket and on the glass. Virginia is one of the best rebounding teams in the ACC and country, but Akil Mitchell, Darion Atkins and the Cavs will have their work cut out for them near the rim.

London Perrantes

Denying second-chance opportunities will play a big factor in the outcome.

Another interesting storyline is the point guards. Ennis vs. Perrantes. Ennis has been getting the publicity and accolades this year, but Perrantes has been making a name for himself lately. Analyst and longtime former coach Bob Knight, for one, gushed over Perrantes' play at Notre Dame earlier this season and said recently Perrantes is one of the best guards in the country. Ennis is more of a scorer but both are known for being calm, cool, and collected and controlling the tempo of the game. Perrantes has been better in conference play with his assist-to-turnover ratio. Whoever is able to set the tone of the game and exert more control over the pace will have the upper hand.

Joe Harris

Just because I am talking about this key down here does not mean it isn't important. It is. Syracuse's zone. Coach Jim Boeheim has run a 2-3 zone for as long as anyone can remember. The Orange usually have one of the best defenses in the nation. This version is good, but I don't know if I would call it top tier. Still, Virginia will need to find a way to crack it. Three-point shooting will do that and Virginia has a bevy of capable shooters on this team. Joe Harris, Malcolm Brogdon, Justin Anderson, Evan Nolte. Everyone knows about them. But also, Perrantes has shown he can hit a 3. He went 4 for 4 against Miami's zone from beyond the arc and also made his only 3 vs. Notre Dame. He also hit 3 of 6 3s at Virginia Tech, meaning he has hit 8 of his last 11 3s. If UVa's point guard can do that against Syracuse, the Orange is in trouble. Another way to crack the zone seems to be flashing capable shooters and offensive threats into the middle of the lane. Virginia has post players that can hit that shot from about 15-17 feet out in Mike Tobey and Anthony Gill. Against Virginia Tech, coach Tony Bennett even devised a strategy where Brogdon would flash the lane. That opened things up for the team, too, resulting in 36 second-half points after the Wahoos managed just 21 in the first half.

Akil Mitchell

Another big factor in the game could be reffing. I am talking about it near the end of this post because hopefully it doesn't factor in, but we all know it can. By now, everyone knows about what happened last Saturday in the Duke-Syracuse game. With the Blue Devils up 60-58 and time winding down, Fair made a move to the basket for the Orange and went up for a layup, running into a a Duke player. It looked like a close call between charge/block, but the refs called a charge on Fair. He had made the basket, meaning had the foul been on Duke, Fair would have gone to the line to try to put the Orange up one. Instead, with the call going against Syracuse, Boeheim flew off the handle and nearly ripped his jacket off and walked to almost midcourt screaming at the refs that the call was "BS!" He was ejected. After the game, he also made comments about the ACC schedule being unfair because Syracuse had to turn around and play at Maryland on Monday but Maryland had not played Saturday. You have to wonder if Boeheim's shenanigans will affect how this game

Thomas Rogers

is called. Did he get in refs' ears and will they give the Orange more calls? Or will they go against him because of his rant? Hopefully, the game is just called fairly on both sides and both teams are allowed to be physical. Too many foul calls disrupt the flow of the game.

The bottom line about this game is Virginia is playing better right now than Syracuse and is playing at home. Syracuse only has two losses but has had lots of close calls. The Orange beat Duke in their first meeting by just two, beat Pitt by two in one meeting (on a last second 3) and by five in the other game. The Orange also needed a late steal and bucket to beat N.C. State at home by one and only topped Maryland by two Monday. Syracuse also beat Notre Dame by just six and the Irish cut the lead down to three late in the second half.

Harris and Mitchell, along with everyone's favorite walk-on Thomas Rogers, will be honored before the game for their contributions to the Cavaliers over their four years. The fans will be loud and proud. The game has been sold out for months and the city is fired up. Syracuse has three main objectives in my mind to try to win this game and it definitely won't be easy. One is for Fair to be at or above 16 points. Two is for the team to hit the same number of 3s as Virginia or more. Three is to outrebound the Cavaliers and control the paint. The more of these three things the Orange accomplish, the more its chances for winning go up.