I did not get a chance to make NFL picks last week and I might not every week from here out but hopefully I will at least some weeks. But I would just like to give my thoughts on the early action in the NFL season.
My Cowboys' first game reminded me a bit of Virginia's first game. While UVa left a better taste in my mouth with its hard-fought loss against a top-10 ranked team, Dallas' 28-17 loss to San Francisco was similar in that I actually still feel OK about the season the Cowboys could have. Don't get me wrong, unless I see something I really like the next couple weeks, I can't predict better than an 8-8 season for the Cowboys. However, I don't think all is lost and Dallas is headed for a 5-11 season or worse. First, the 49ers are a great team. They could be the second-best in the NFL after the Seahawks and are certainly in the league's top five until they prove otherwise. Dallas did not lose to a scrub. Yes, it was 28-3 at one point. But the Cowboys fought back and made the final score respectable. So I liked the fight the team showed. The defense only gave up 21 points -- one 49ers TD was off a fumble return. And one of those offensive touchdowns was set up greatly by an interception of Tony Romo that the 49ers returned to the two-yard line. Romo had three picks in the game. So basically, the Dallas defense, much-maligned last season giving up the third most yards by an NFL team in history, held up fairly well and showed some promise. Lastly, Romo did not have much of an offseason and played sparingly in the preseason as he recovered from back surgery. He took some hits but his back seems to be OK. I am hoping that he was rusty. He also forced a lot of passes into double coverage, especially once the Cowboys got behind (which was the whole game). I think once he gets into a groove he will play better and will eventually not throw as many picks. Let's also not lose sight of the fact that the 49ers defense is very good. Yet, DeMarco Murray, with the team playing from behind, still gained 118 yards so that is encouraging as well.
The rest of the NFC East did not look particularly strong. The Eagles were down 17-0 to the Jaguars but did come back to win 34-17. The Redskins offense looked pretty uneven in a 17-6 loss to the Texans and the Giants looked bad in all facets of the game in a 35-14 loss to the Lions. Looks like another toss up in the NFC East this season. Still plenty of games left and the Cowboys can still win the division but the Eagles are definitely the favorite. I'd be somewhat surprised if the division winner is better than 10-6, though, and could be worse.
Baltimore showed a lot of resolve in beating Pittsburgh, 26-6, Thursday night. There has been incredible negative attention surrounding the Ravens and the NFL in past days because of the Ray Rice scandal. I'm sure the players were looking forward to just getting back on the field. I thought the Steelers were going to win, though, because of the distraction and because Pittsburgh won last week while Baltimore lost. Sometimes, however, issues surrounding teams bond players together and they dig deeper. That's what it looks like happened with the Ravens against the Steelers. Plus, the Ravens, though they lost to the Bengals last week, finished that Week 1 game on a 16-8 scoring run in the second half. Meanwhile, the Steelers were up 27-3 on the Browns but barely hung on for a 30-27 win. Pittsburgh has been outscored, 50-9, in its past six quarters of play.
The Seahawks look like the real deal again. I have a lot of respect for the Packers offense, but the Seattle "Legion of Boom" defense dominated Aaron Rodgers and the boys last Thursday night in the NFL season opener as the Seahawks cruised to a 36-16 win. Good luck to any team traveling to face Seattle in Seattle this year (yay Dallas!). The Seahawks are always a different story on the road so we will see how they fare this weekend at San Diego. But the team looks legit once again and primed for a repeat.
Are the Falcons back? Atlanta went 4-12 last season a year after losing to the 49ers, 28-24, in the NFC championship. In Week 1, Atlanta won over New Orleans, 37-34, in overtime at home. The Falcons are healthy again and the offensive line gave Matt Ryan plenty of time to throw the ball against the Saints. I am not going to anoint them a top-four NFC team yet, though. In this game, things went their way. In 2013, though, Atlanta's first four losses were by single digits -- the first one 17-13 to New Orleans -- and the team was 1-4 after five games. They were a handful of points away from being 5-0. My point is, the margin of error is so slim in the NFL where most anything can happen any given week. The Falcons almost started 5-0 last year but went 1-4. They almost lost Sunday to the Saints. There is still plenty of time to see what kind of team Atlanta is before jumping to conclusions. If they can consistently win close games, then the Falcons will probably be in playoff contention at the end of the year.
Are the Vikings for real? The competition might not have been up to snuff, but Minnesota clobbered St. Louis on Sunday, 34-6. The Vikings have a new head coach, Mike Zimmer, a first-time head coach who was most recently the defensive coordinator in Cincinnati but has also been the defensive coordinator in Dallas. The Vikings defense was not good last year. I'm sure Zimmer has done a lot to get them playing better. The Vikings' offensive coordinator is Norv Turner, who has not been a good head coach in the league but has almost always been an impressive OC. He even did good things in Cleveland last year. Watch out for Minnesota -- it could be a dark horse in the NFC this season.
Is this the year the Patriots miss the playoffs again? New England has made the playoffs an incredible 11 out of the past 13 seasons (missed in 2002, 2008). Besides the occasional trash talk from the Jets and coach Rex Ryan. the Patriots have been largely unchallenged by their opponents in the AFC East those 13 years. Sunday, Miami really took it to New England in the second half and won, 33-20. Are the Patriots crumbling? Tom Brady is getting older and looked inaccurate. Rob Gronkowski is back at tight end but is fragile and the Patriots' offensive weapons aren't significantly upgraded from last year. Bill Belichick and the Patriots have not won a Super Bowl since the 2004 season despite all the success. The Patriots have to play at Minnesota on Sunday. With the Bills sporting a good defense and off to a 1-0 start with a win over the Bears, the Jets always being a thorn in their sides, and the Dolphins looking strong like a year ago when they should have made the playoffs, are the Patriots going to find it hard to dominate the AFC East this season?
Will Peyton Manning throw over 50 touchdowns again? He started off with only three Sunday in a 31-24 win over the Colts, a far cry from the seven he started with last season against the Ravens when he ended up throwing 55 TDs. I doubt he will get to 55 this season, but I'll say he gets around 45.The real question is are the Broncos going to coast through the AFC again or is some other team going to come out of that conference and represent the AFC in the Super Bowl?
Are both NFC wild cards going to come out of the NFC West? It is certainly possible. The NFC East is likely to get one team in the playoffs. The Saints or Falcons are most likely to make it out of the NFC South and I'm not sure I'm sold on the Falcons yet. I think most people believe the Panthers will come down to Earth some this season. In the North, the Vikings have a long way to go and the Bears and Packers have problems on defense while the Lions aren't trustworthy yet either. The Seahawks are almost a lock for the playoffs I would say and the 49ers and Cardinals are capable of making the playoffs. Arizona was 10-6 last year but missed the playoffs because the 11-5 Saints got the second wild card. San Francisco got the first at 12-4. I could definitely envision a scenario where the Cardinals and 49ers get in as wild cards with Seattle the division winner while teams like New Orleans/Atlanta, Green Bay/Chicago/Detroit are just left out at 9-7 or 10-6. The NFC is strong and the competition for the wild cards will be intense.
My Cowboys' first game reminded me a bit of Virginia's first game. While UVa left a better taste in my mouth with its hard-fought loss against a top-10 ranked team, Dallas' 28-17 loss to San Francisco was similar in that I actually still feel OK about the season the Cowboys could have. Don't get me wrong, unless I see something I really like the next couple weeks, I can't predict better than an 8-8 season for the Cowboys. However, I don't think all is lost and Dallas is headed for a 5-11 season or worse. First, the 49ers are a great team. They could be the second-best in the NFL after the Seahawks and are certainly in the league's top five until they prove otherwise. Dallas did not lose to a scrub. Yes, it was 28-3 at one point. But the Cowboys fought back and made the final score respectable. So I liked the fight the team showed. The defense only gave up 21 points -- one 49ers TD was off a fumble return. And one of those offensive touchdowns was set up greatly by an interception of Tony Romo that the 49ers returned to the two-yard line. Romo had three picks in the game. So basically, the Dallas defense, much-maligned last season giving up the third most yards by an NFL team in history, held up fairly well and showed some promise. Lastly, Romo did not have much of an offseason and played sparingly in the preseason as he recovered from back surgery. He took some hits but his back seems to be OK. I am hoping that he was rusty. He also forced a lot of passes into double coverage, especially once the Cowboys got behind (which was the whole game). I think once he gets into a groove he will play better and will eventually not throw as many picks. Let's also not lose sight of the fact that the 49ers defense is very good. Yet, DeMarco Murray, with the team playing from behind, still gained 118 yards so that is encouraging as well.
The rest of the NFC East did not look particularly strong. The Eagles were down 17-0 to the Jaguars but did come back to win 34-17. The Redskins offense looked pretty uneven in a 17-6 loss to the Texans and the Giants looked bad in all facets of the game in a 35-14 loss to the Lions. Looks like another toss up in the NFC East this season. Still plenty of games left and the Cowboys can still win the division but the Eagles are definitely the favorite. I'd be somewhat surprised if the division winner is better than 10-6, though, and could be worse.
Baltimore showed a lot of resolve in beating Pittsburgh, 26-6, Thursday night. There has been incredible negative attention surrounding the Ravens and the NFL in past days because of the Ray Rice scandal. I'm sure the players were looking forward to just getting back on the field. I thought the Steelers were going to win, though, because of the distraction and because Pittsburgh won last week while Baltimore lost. Sometimes, however, issues surrounding teams bond players together and they dig deeper. That's what it looks like happened with the Ravens against the Steelers. Plus, the Ravens, though they lost to the Bengals last week, finished that Week 1 game on a 16-8 scoring run in the second half. Meanwhile, the Steelers were up 27-3 on the Browns but barely hung on for a 30-27 win. Pittsburgh has been outscored, 50-9, in its past six quarters of play.
The Seahawks look like the real deal again. I have a lot of respect for the Packers offense, but the Seattle "Legion of Boom" defense dominated Aaron Rodgers and the boys last Thursday night in the NFL season opener as the Seahawks cruised to a 36-16 win. Good luck to any team traveling to face Seattle in Seattle this year (yay Dallas!). The Seahawks are always a different story on the road so we will see how they fare this weekend at San Diego. But the team looks legit once again and primed for a repeat.
Are the Falcons back? Atlanta went 4-12 last season a year after losing to the 49ers, 28-24, in the NFC championship. In Week 1, Atlanta won over New Orleans, 37-34, in overtime at home. The Falcons are healthy again and the offensive line gave Matt Ryan plenty of time to throw the ball against the Saints. I am not going to anoint them a top-four NFC team yet, though. In this game, things went their way. In 2013, though, Atlanta's first four losses were by single digits -- the first one 17-13 to New Orleans -- and the team was 1-4 after five games. They were a handful of points away from being 5-0. My point is, the margin of error is so slim in the NFL where most anything can happen any given week. The Falcons almost started 5-0 last year but went 1-4. They almost lost Sunday to the Saints. There is still plenty of time to see what kind of team Atlanta is before jumping to conclusions. If they can consistently win close games, then the Falcons will probably be in playoff contention at the end of the year.
Are the Vikings for real? The competition might not have been up to snuff, but Minnesota clobbered St. Louis on Sunday, 34-6. The Vikings have a new head coach, Mike Zimmer, a first-time head coach who was most recently the defensive coordinator in Cincinnati but has also been the defensive coordinator in Dallas. The Vikings defense was not good last year. I'm sure Zimmer has done a lot to get them playing better. The Vikings' offensive coordinator is Norv Turner, who has not been a good head coach in the league but has almost always been an impressive OC. He even did good things in Cleveland last year. Watch out for Minnesota -- it could be a dark horse in the NFC this season.
Is this the year the Patriots miss the playoffs again? New England has made the playoffs an incredible 11 out of the past 13 seasons (missed in 2002, 2008). Besides the occasional trash talk from the Jets and coach Rex Ryan. the Patriots have been largely unchallenged by their opponents in the AFC East those 13 years. Sunday, Miami really took it to New England in the second half and won, 33-20. Are the Patriots crumbling? Tom Brady is getting older and looked inaccurate. Rob Gronkowski is back at tight end but is fragile and the Patriots' offensive weapons aren't significantly upgraded from last year. Bill Belichick and the Patriots have not won a Super Bowl since the 2004 season despite all the success. The Patriots have to play at Minnesota on Sunday. With the Bills sporting a good defense and off to a 1-0 start with a win over the Bears, the Jets always being a thorn in their sides, and the Dolphins looking strong like a year ago when they should have made the playoffs, are the Patriots going to find it hard to dominate the AFC East this season?
Will Peyton Manning throw over 50 touchdowns again? He started off with only three Sunday in a 31-24 win over the Colts, a far cry from the seven he started with last season against the Ravens when he ended up throwing 55 TDs. I doubt he will get to 55 this season, but I'll say he gets around 45.The real question is are the Broncos going to coast through the AFC again or is some other team going to come out of that conference and represent the AFC in the Super Bowl?
Are both NFC wild cards going to come out of the NFC West? It is certainly possible. The NFC East is likely to get one team in the playoffs. The Saints or Falcons are most likely to make it out of the NFC South and I'm not sure I'm sold on the Falcons yet. I think most people believe the Panthers will come down to Earth some this season. In the North, the Vikings have a long way to go and the Bears and Packers have problems on defense while the Lions aren't trustworthy yet either. The Seahawks are almost a lock for the playoffs I would say and the 49ers and Cardinals are capable of making the playoffs. Arizona was 10-6 last year but missed the playoffs because the 11-5 Saints got the second wild card. San Francisco got the first at 12-4. I could definitely envision a scenario where the Cardinals and 49ers get in as wild cards with Seattle the division winner while teams like New Orleans/Atlanta, Green Bay/Chicago/Detroit are just left out at 9-7 or 10-6. The NFC is strong and the competition for the wild cards will be intense.
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