Season: 39-22; Thursday: 0-1; last week: 7-3
Welp, big swing and miss on the Miami at Virginia Tech pick. Miami might have found its footing on the road and I can't believe the Hokies have fallen to the point of losing , 30-6, in Blacksburg but that appears to be the case. Miami is right in the thick of the Coastal race with two losses but Tech now has three and will need a lot of help to compete for a division title. The Hokies have bigger problems to deal with, however, mostly an inept offense. Here's to hoping Saturday's picks will go better for me (except for my UNC-UVa pick).
Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh, 3:30 p.m. ESPNU
Another big game in a topsy-turvy ACC Coastal Division. The Yellow Jackets appeared to be the frontrunner in the division but has lost two straight to Duke and North Carolina by a combined 11 points. Pittsburgh started the year 3-0 before losing three straight to Iowa, Akron, and UVa and then rebounded last Thursday night at home by beating Virginia Tech, 21-16. Basically, anyone can beat anyone in this division and just when you think something makes sense, nothing does. So I'm picking the Yellow Jackets to get back on track this week against what is not a dynamic offense for the Panthers. If this happens, then Georgia Tech would then be in a second-place tie with Pitt and Miami and Virginia if is it loses to North Carolina with tiebreakers over Pitt and Miami and a game against UVa to come. If UVa wins, Georgia Tech would be in a tie for third. Duke, by itself in first if UVa loses to UNC, is off and travels to Pitt next Saturday.
Georgia Tech 31, Pittsburgh 28
Battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe: Michigan at No. 8 Michigan State, 3:30 ABC
The troubles for Michigan have been well-documented this season. Brady Hoke is squarely on the hot seat. The Wolverines are 3-4 and snapped a three-game losing streak two weeks ago by beating Penn State, 18-13. The Wolverines offense has been struggling all year and hasn't scored more than 24 points since Sept. 13 against Miami (Ohio). Michigan has had two weeks to prepare for this game but it won't be enough vs. the Spartans, which has been good on both offense and defense.
Michigan State 41, Michigan 20
No. 22 West Virginia at Oklahoma State, 3:30 p.m. ESPN
I got to say, I called WVU's upset of Baylor last week, and it was fairly easy, 41-27. I also called TCU's win over Oklahoma State at home. That one was 37-9. OSU will play better at home, but the Cowboys haven't really been impressive since hanging with Florida State in Week 1. I'll like the Mountaineers.
West Virginia 34, Oklahoma State 30
Upset alert: No. 1 Mississippi State at Kentucky, 3:30 p.m. CBS
Kentucky is improved this year at 5-2 but will it be enough to topple the high-flying Bulldogs, who beat Auburn two weeks ago? Kentucky has a nice win at home this year over a struggling South Carolina team but fell flat last week in a hyped game at LSU, 41-3. I think the Wildcats will show up better back at home, but it won't be enough vs. MSU, which has been solid on offense and defense. I think the game could be close for awhile, though.
Mississippi State 44, Kentucky 24
Syracuse at No. 21 Clemson, 7 p.m. ESPNU
Last week, my friend George Banko, a Syracuse fan (for basketball mostly but football when it does well), asked why I didn't pick the Orange's matchup against Wake Forest. I said because the Orange aren't very good and neither is Wake Forest. Not a very exciting matchup (Syracuse won, 30-7). But I'm throwing him a bone this week. The Tigers will beat the Orange easily, though. 'Cuse has lost every game of consequence this season and the Tigers are a good team. The Orange might be able to keep it close, though, because their defense is decent and the Tigers offense isn't as explosive with Cole Stoudt at QB, which he still is this week with Deshaun Watson still recovering from hand surgery. Can't mention Banko without noting his aptitude for fantasy football. If you need fantasy football advice, check out Banko's website he runs with some friends at www.fantasyfootballhelpers.com. Good stuff.
Clemson 27, Syracuse 17
Game of the week: No. 3 Ole Miss at No. 24 LSU, 7:15 p.m. ESPN
Hold the phone. LSU's season isn't completely over yet. The Tigers have bounced back to a 5-2 record and top-25 ranking with wins the past two weeks over Florida (barely) and Kentucky (easily) after getting mauled, 41-7, on Oct. 4 by Auburn. The bayou crowd will be jumping in Baton Rouge but I think the Rebels are too good this year to bow to the noise and the pressure of a prime time game. Ole Miss's defense has yet to give up more than 20 points in a game and LSU's offense has been inconsistent this year. Look for LSU to pound the Rebels defense with freshman running back Leonard Fournette and see if it breaks.
Ole Miss 30, LSU 20
No. 20 USC at No. 19 Utah, 10 p.m. FOX Sports 1
These two squads are part of a clustered Pac-12 South Division that has been very competitive. USC, Arizona State, Arizona, and Utah all have just one conference loss. The Trojans have two big road wins at Stanford and at Arizona. The Utes beat UCLA on the road but also lost to a weak Washington State team at home. At this point, I trust USC more to go out and get a big victory.
USC 27 Utah 24
South's Oldest Rivalry: North Carolina at Virginia, 12:30 p.m. ACC Network
First game played: 1892
Games played: 118
Record: UNC leads, 60-54-4
Last meeting: UNC won, 45-14, last year in Chapel Hill
Current streak: UNC has won four straight
Last UVa win: 16-3 at UNC in 2009
Last UVa home win: 16-13 (OT) in 2008
Sad and sobering statistic: The last time UVa scored more than 23 points on UNC was 2004, nine games, when the Cavaliers exploded for 56 in a 56-24 win in Charlottesville.
Well we are getting close to put up or shut up time for Mike London and his tenure in Charlottesville. If UVa loses this game, it is hard to find two more wins on the schedule needed to get to six wins and a bowl game, presumably what would save London's job. A win over an old rival at home that hasn't lost to the Cavaliers since 2009 and UVa will be right back on track to get to six wins and would still be in a tie for first in the Coastal.
I didn't write a reaction post for the Wahoos' 20-13 loss last Saturday for the Duke game but it was pretty simple. The defense played well but broke at the wrong time and didn't create any turnovers. The offense was unable to create enough points on its own despite gaining 465 total yards. That is a very inefficient offense. I can't verify this stat but I read from more than one poster on the Sabre fan message board that Virginia has lost 15 straight games to FBS teams when it fails to score a defensive touchdown or create at least two short fields off turnovers for its offense (I'm assuming this means that the offense would start drives at midfield or better). That points directly to Virginia not being able to win with its offense. It always needs some kind of help from its defense.
This week is as good a week as any for the offense to establish the fact that it can win a game. UNC's defense ranks 127th in scoring (43.3 points per game), 107th against the run (217.6 yards per game), and 119th against the pass (304.7 yards per game). That scoring mark doesn't even register on the NCAA.com site (I got it from ESPN.com). My guess is that ESPN is counting more FBS teams because of maybe teams that are transitioning to full-time FBS status. NCAA.com. does have UNC's defense ranking 125th in the stat, in front of only SMU. Second-to-last. Bad, bad, bad. Luckily for the Tar Heels, they are tied for 19th in the country, forcing 16 turnovers on the season (UVa has created 19). I don't know all the history of the league, but without that turnover figure, this would have to be one of the worst defenses for any ACC team ever. If the UVa offense, inefficient as it is, can't score at least 30 points on North Carolina, we should probably just pack up for the season and look forward to
hoops. By the way, the last time Virginia scored at least 30 points in an ACC contest? Nov. 10, 2012 vs. Miami in a 41-40 victory. Oi. It has never been done with Steve Fairchild as offensive coordinator. The offense's best game under him came last year when it scored 26 points twice, vs. Miami and Maryland. The best this year was a 23-point effort vs. Louisville, which was helped by the defense in setting up the offense on a few occasions. The 24 points scored vs. Pittsburgh was not all offensive: Max Valles' INT for a TD means that the offense totaled just 17 points on its own in that game.
So, can the offense score at least 30 points and how should it do it? First of all, despite his problems, I think UVa needs Greyson Lambert at QB. He was not listed on the injury report last week and fans were expecting him to start vs. Duke. He didn't, though. London said after the game he was available but not 100 percent. Lambert is not as mobile as Matt Johns, who started, so I can see why you would maybe want Johns back there instead of an unhealthy Lambert. Johns lost his first game as a starter (he was 2-0 previously) and played OK, but not good enough. He was victimized by some receiver drops but completed just 22 of 45 passes. That just isn't going to cut it. Johns has done some nice things this season, but Lambert has been the more accurate QB and I think that is going to be more important vs. the UNC defense than big plays, which Johns got a reputation for making based on a few plays vs. UCLA. UVa should be able to move the ball on the Tar Heels. Big plays might not be needed. We just need an accurate QB that can move the ball down the field.
I saw an interesting discussion on the Sabre regarding the Cavaliers' offensive philosophy. Could Virginia's tendency to run the ball hurt its chances vs. UNC? The reason is because all year, London has spoken about controlling the clock and being "close" in the fourth quarter. However, the defense has thrived off of turnovers and creating havoc. It only does that when it gets a lot of possessions. The chances that the opponent turns the ball over go up as the opponent accrues more possessions. A way to make sure that the defense gets lots of possessions is to score quickly. I don't know if our offense can do it, but it would be good to see some hurry-up from the offense. It might help it get in a rhythm and keep a reeling defense back on its heels (pun intended). Then the defense can get out there and hunt for turnovers. A slow-paced offense will shorten the game and give the Tar Heels fewer chances to screw up on offense. Personally, I would like to see some hurry-up from the UVa offense. I don't care how it does it -- run or pass. I do think, however, we should be feeding RB Kevin Parks more. He had just 16 carries last week vs. a bad Duke rush defense and got 75 yards for a 4.7 yards per carry average. He should be getting at least 20 carries per game, especially vs. bad rush defenses. Based on UNC's numbers, however, the Wahoos should hopefully be able to run or pass. But the point of a defense needing more possessions to create turnovers is a good one. This could back fire if the UVa offense doesn't get points (mostly TDs). Then we are just putting a tired defense back out on the field more quickly, not a fired up one that has momentum, an offense that just scored, and a loud crowd backing it.
It's worth noting that London's remarks about being close in the fourth quarter sounds like a playing-not-to-lose mentality. Would it hurt the offense to be aggressive and try to force the action once in awhile? Maybe going for a win for once rather than being scared? The defense does that a lot, wouldn't hurt for the offense to develop a mean streak.
If Virginia gets to 30 points on offense, I am feeling decent about winning the game, Can the defense hold UNC under 30 points would then become the question. As bad as the Tar Heels defense has been, the offense has been good, though not to the opposite extreme of the defense. It is a capable offense that is getting better. Marquise Williams is a force at QB, though, that can run and pass and has totaled 898 total yards the past two weeks, a school record for a two-game stretch. North Carolina's passing offense ranks 23rd in the country, its rushing offense 78th in the country, and it is 17th in points per game (38.7). Most of the running comes from Williams, who has recorded 448 yards. UNC's next best rusher is T.J. Logan, who has run for just 213 yards, which comes out to just 30.4 per game. He is averaging 4.5 yards per carry, though. Mack Hollins is averaging 18.1 yards per catch on 24 receptions. He has scored five touchdowns. Ryan Switzer has the most catches on the team with 34 for 429 yards and three touchdowns. Switzer is also very dangerous in the return game, though he has been bottled up more on punt returns this year than last year.
I was just about to write off UNC a few weeks ago. I was thinking it was possible UNC was going to lose the rest of its games. But then it showed life in a close game at top-10 ranked Notre Dame, losing, 50-43. Last week, it snapped a four-game losing streak by beating Georgia Tech, 48-43, to get to 3-4 and 1-2 in the ACC. UNC did a similar thing last year, falling behind 1-5 before winning five straight games to become bowl eligible. UVa was its fourth win of the season. The Heels are trying make the 'Hoos their fourth win of the 2014 season, too.
If UVa loses, I hope it is a shootout. That would at least be fun to watch. And it would be so sad if UVa scores less than 27 points. UNC has not allowed fewer than that in any game this season. Liberty scored 29 points on the Heels. San Diego State netted 27. No ACC team has scored fewer than Virginia Tech's 34 (OK, 27, since one TD was an INT return). This defense is bad and UVa needs to take advantage, I think it will play well, but not good enough.
North Carolina 34, Virginia 27
Welp, big swing and miss on the Miami at Virginia Tech pick. Miami might have found its footing on the road and I can't believe the Hokies have fallen to the point of losing , 30-6, in Blacksburg but that appears to be the case. Miami is right in the thick of the Coastal race with two losses but Tech now has three and will need a lot of help to compete for a division title. The Hokies have bigger problems to deal with, however, mostly an inept offense. Here's to hoping Saturday's picks will go better for me (except for my UNC-UVa pick).
Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh, 3:30 p.m. ESPNU
Another big game in a topsy-turvy ACC Coastal Division. The Yellow Jackets appeared to be the frontrunner in the division but has lost two straight to Duke and North Carolina by a combined 11 points. Pittsburgh started the year 3-0 before losing three straight to Iowa, Akron, and UVa and then rebounded last Thursday night at home by beating Virginia Tech, 21-16. Basically, anyone can beat anyone in this division and just when you think something makes sense, nothing does. So I'm picking the Yellow Jackets to get back on track this week against what is not a dynamic offense for the Panthers. If this happens, then Georgia Tech would then be in a second-place tie with Pitt and Miami and Virginia if is it loses to North Carolina with tiebreakers over Pitt and Miami and a game against UVa to come. If UVa wins, Georgia Tech would be in a tie for third. Duke, by itself in first if UVa loses to UNC, is off and travels to Pitt next Saturday.
Georgia Tech 31, Pittsburgh 28
Battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe: Michigan at No. 8 Michigan State, 3:30 ABC
The troubles for Michigan have been well-documented this season. Brady Hoke is squarely on the hot seat. The Wolverines are 3-4 and snapped a three-game losing streak two weeks ago by beating Penn State, 18-13. The Wolverines offense has been struggling all year and hasn't scored more than 24 points since Sept. 13 against Miami (Ohio). Michigan has had two weeks to prepare for this game but it won't be enough vs. the Spartans, which has been good on both offense and defense.
Michigan State 41, Michigan 20
No. 22 West Virginia at Oklahoma State, 3:30 p.m. ESPN
I got to say, I called WVU's upset of Baylor last week, and it was fairly easy, 41-27. I also called TCU's win over Oklahoma State at home. That one was 37-9. OSU will play better at home, but the Cowboys haven't really been impressive since hanging with Florida State in Week 1. I'll like the Mountaineers.
West Virginia 34, Oklahoma State 30
Upset alert: No. 1 Mississippi State at Kentucky, 3:30 p.m. CBS
Kentucky is improved this year at 5-2 but will it be enough to topple the high-flying Bulldogs, who beat Auburn two weeks ago? Kentucky has a nice win at home this year over a struggling South Carolina team but fell flat last week in a hyped game at LSU, 41-3. I think the Wildcats will show up better back at home, but it won't be enough vs. MSU, which has been solid on offense and defense. I think the game could be close for awhile, though.
Mississippi State 44, Kentucky 24
Syracuse at No. 21 Clemson, 7 p.m. ESPNU
Last week, my friend George Banko, a Syracuse fan (for basketball mostly but football when it does well), asked why I didn't pick the Orange's matchup against Wake Forest. I said because the Orange aren't very good and neither is Wake Forest. Not a very exciting matchup (Syracuse won, 30-7). But I'm throwing him a bone this week. The Tigers will beat the Orange easily, though. 'Cuse has lost every game of consequence this season and the Tigers are a good team. The Orange might be able to keep it close, though, because their defense is decent and the Tigers offense isn't as explosive with Cole Stoudt at QB, which he still is this week with Deshaun Watson still recovering from hand surgery. Can't mention Banko without noting his aptitude for fantasy football. If you need fantasy football advice, check out Banko's website he runs with some friends at www.fantasyfootballhelpers.com. Good stuff.
Clemson 27, Syracuse 17
Game of the week: No. 3 Ole Miss at No. 24 LSU, 7:15 p.m. ESPN
Hold the phone. LSU's season isn't completely over yet. The Tigers have bounced back to a 5-2 record and top-25 ranking with wins the past two weeks over Florida (barely) and Kentucky (easily) after getting mauled, 41-7, on Oct. 4 by Auburn. The bayou crowd will be jumping in Baton Rouge but I think the Rebels are too good this year to bow to the noise and the pressure of a prime time game. Ole Miss's defense has yet to give up more than 20 points in a game and LSU's offense has been inconsistent this year. Look for LSU to pound the Rebels defense with freshman running back Leonard Fournette and see if it breaks.
Ole Miss 30, LSU 20
No. 20 USC at No. 19 Utah, 10 p.m. FOX Sports 1
These two squads are part of a clustered Pac-12 South Division that has been very competitive. USC, Arizona State, Arizona, and Utah all have just one conference loss. The Trojans have two big road wins at Stanford and at Arizona. The Utes beat UCLA on the road but also lost to a weak Washington State team at home. At this point, I trust USC more to go out and get a big victory.
USC 27 Utah 24
South's Oldest Rivalry: North Carolina at Virginia, 12:30 p.m. ACC Network
First game played: 1892
Games played: 118
Record: UNC leads, 60-54-4
Last meeting: UNC won, 45-14, last year in Chapel Hill
Current streak: UNC has won four straight
Last UVa win: 16-3 at UNC in 2009
Last UVa home win: 16-13 (OT) in 2008
Sad and sobering statistic: The last time UVa scored more than 23 points on UNC was 2004, nine games, when the Cavaliers exploded for 56 in a 56-24 win in Charlottesville.
Well we are getting close to put up or shut up time for Mike London and his tenure in Charlottesville. If UVa loses this game, it is hard to find two more wins on the schedule needed to get to six wins and a bowl game, presumably what would save London's job. A win over an old rival at home that hasn't lost to the Cavaliers since 2009 and UVa will be right back on track to get to six wins and would still be in a tie for first in the Coastal.
I didn't write a reaction post for the Wahoos' 20-13 loss last Saturday for the Duke game but it was pretty simple. The defense played well but broke at the wrong time and didn't create any turnovers. The offense was unable to create enough points on its own despite gaining 465 total yards. That is a very inefficient offense. I can't verify this stat but I read from more than one poster on the Sabre fan message board that Virginia has lost 15 straight games to FBS teams when it fails to score a defensive touchdown or create at least two short fields off turnovers for its offense (I'm assuming this means that the offense would start drives at midfield or better). That points directly to Virginia not being able to win with its offense. It always needs some kind of help from its defense.
This week is as good a week as any for the offense to establish the fact that it can win a game. UNC's defense ranks 127th in scoring (43.3 points per game), 107th against the run (217.6 yards per game), and 119th against the pass (304.7 yards per game). That scoring mark doesn't even register on the NCAA.com site (I got it from ESPN.com). My guess is that ESPN is counting more FBS teams because of maybe teams that are transitioning to full-time FBS status. NCAA.com. does have UNC's defense ranking 125th in the stat, in front of only SMU. Second-to-last. Bad, bad, bad. Luckily for the Tar Heels, they are tied for 19th in the country, forcing 16 turnovers on the season (UVa has created 19). I don't know all the history of the league, but without that turnover figure, this would have to be one of the worst defenses for any ACC team ever. If the UVa offense, inefficient as it is, can't score at least 30 points on North Carolina, we should probably just pack up for the season and look forward to
So, can the offense score at least 30 points and how should it do it? First of all, despite his problems, I think UVa needs Greyson Lambert at QB. He was not listed on the injury report last week and fans were expecting him to start vs. Duke. He didn't, though. London said after the game he was available but not 100 percent. Lambert is not as mobile as Matt Johns, who started, so I can see why you would maybe want Johns back there instead of an unhealthy Lambert. Johns lost his first game as a starter (he was 2-0 previously) and played OK, but not good enough. He was victimized by some receiver drops but completed just 22 of 45 passes. That just isn't going to cut it. Johns has done some nice things this season, but Lambert has been the more accurate QB and I think that is going to be more important vs. the UNC defense than big plays, which Johns got a reputation for making based on a few plays vs. UCLA. UVa should be able to move the ball on the Tar Heels. Big plays might not be needed. We just need an accurate QB that can move the ball down the field.
I saw an interesting discussion on the Sabre regarding the Cavaliers' offensive philosophy. Could Virginia's tendency to run the ball hurt its chances vs. UNC? The reason is because all year, London has spoken about controlling the clock and being "close" in the fourth quarter. However, the defense has thrived off of turnovers and creating havoc. It only does that when it gets a lot of possessions. The chances that the opponent turns the ball over go up as the opponent accrues more possessions. A way to make sure that the defense gets lots of possessions is to score quickly. I don't know if our offense can do it, but it would be good to see some hurry-up from the offense. It might help it get in a rhythm and keep a reeling defense back on its heels (pun intended). Then the defense can get out there and hunt for turnovers. A slow-paced offense will shorten the game and give the Tar Heels fewer chances to screw up on offense. Personally, I would like to see some hurry-up from the UVa offense. I don't care how it does it -- run or pass. I do think, however, we should be feeding RB Kevin Parks more. He had just 16 carries last week vs. a bad Duke rush defense and got 75 yards for a 4.7 yards per carry average. He should be getting at least 20 carries per game, especially vs. bad rush defenses. Based on UNC's numbers, however, the Wahoos should hopefully be able to run or pass. But the point of a defense needing more possessions to create turnovers is a good one. This could back fire if the UVa offense doesn't get points (mostly TDs). Then we are just putting a tired defense back out on the field more quickly, not a fired up one that has momentum, an offense that just scored, and a loud crowd backing it.
It's worth noting that London's remarks about being close in the fourth quarter sounds like a playing-not-to-lose mentality. Would it hurt the offense to be aggressive and try to force the action once in awhile? Maybe going for a win for once rather than being scared? The defense does that a lot, wouldn't hurt for the offense to develop a mean streak.
If Virginia gets to 30 points on offense, I am feeling decent about winning the game, Can the defense hold UNC under 30 points would then become the question. As bad as the Tar Heels defense has been, the offense has been good, though not to the opposite extreme of the defense. It is a capable offense that is getting better. Marquise Williams is a force at QB, though, that can run and pass and has totaled 898 total yards the past two weeks, a school record for a two-game stretch. North Carolina's passing offense ranks 23rd in the country, its rushing offense 78th in the country, and it is 17th in points per game (38.7). Most of the running comes from Williams, who has recorded 448 yards. UNC's next best rusher is T.J. Logan, who has run for just 213 yards, which comes out to just 30.4 per game. He is averaging 4.5 yards per carry, though. Mack Hollins is averaging 18.1 yards per catch on 24 receptions. He has scored five touchdowns. Ryan Switzer has the most catches on the team with 34 for 429 yards and three touchdowns. Switzer is also very dangerous in the return game, though he has been bottled up more on punt returns this year than last year.
I was just about to write off UNC a few weeks ago. I was thinking it was possible UNC was going to lose the rest of its games. But then it showed life in a close game at top-10 ranked Notre Dame, losing, 50-43. Last week, it snapped a four-game losing streak by beating Georgia Tech, 48-43, to get to 3-4 and 1-2 in the ACC. UNC did a similar thing last year, falling behind 1-5 before winning five straight games to become bowl eligible. UVa was its fourth win of the season. The Heels are trying make the 'Hoos their fourth win of the 2014 season, too.
If UVa loses, I hope it is a shootout. That would at least be fun to watch. And it would be so sad if UVa scores less than 27 points. UNC has not allowed fewer than that in any game this season. Liberty scored 29 points on the Heels. San Diego State netted 27. No ACC team has scored fewer than Virginia Tech's 34 (OK, 27, since one TD was an INT return). This defense is bad and UVa needs to take advantage, I think it will play well, but not good enough.
North Carolina 34, Virginia 27
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