Thanksgiving Day NFL picks

Season: 28-22; last week: 0-0; two weeks ago: 3-1

Bears (5-6) at Lions (7-4), 12:30 p.m. CBS
Chicago has turned it around -- a little bit -- since 51-23 and 55-14 disasters against the Patriots and then the Packers in Weeks 8 and 10, respectively (with a bye in the middle). Still, 21-13 home victories over bad teams in Minnesota and Tampa Bay don't fill me with confidence that the Bears can win at Detroit against a tough defense. Detroit has lost back-to-back games against Arizona and New England, scoring 15 points total in the process, but the Chicago defense should help out a bit in getting Matt Stafford and the Lions back on track.
Lions 24, Bears 17

Seahawks (7-4) at 49ers (7-4), 8:30 p.m. NBC
One of the most fierce modern rivalries in the NFL closes the action on Thanksgiving Day. These teams are also tied, like the teams battling in the NFC East, but this game is not for the NFC West lead. The surprising Cardinals are still out in front with a 9-2 record. However, the winner of this game gets in good position for a wild card and a shot at Arizona while the loser could have a hard time getting back into the playoff race with a 7-5 record and tough games still to go. These teams meet again in Seattle on Dec. 14. I think this game is more important for the 49ers. I like the Seahawks' chances of winning in Seattle with the two play the second time. I am not sure about the Niners' chances in this game, but they need it more. They are not playing as well, with only six-point and four-point wins over the hapless Giants and Redskins in the last two weeks and a home loss to St. Louis before that. Seattle, meanwhile, has won four of five and blew out the Giants and stymied the Cardinals last week at home (San Francisco lost at Arizona in Week 3). Seattle also nearly won at Kansas City two weeks ago, which has been a difficult thing for teams to do this year (just ask New England). San Francisco is just 3-2 in its new stadium located in Santa Clara, Calif. I think the 49ers are a good team, but I just like the Seahawks a little bit better at this point.
Seahawks 20, 49ers 17

Eagles (8-3) at Cowboys (8-3), 4:30 p.m. FOX
Philadelphia pays a visit to Dallas for the first best game of the day (the second is in San Francisco). The winner claims first place, for now, in the NFC East. These teams have not met yet this year. There will be a quick turnaround as the Eagles host the Cowboys on Dec. 14. The Eagles have survived thus far with Mark Sanchez under center, going 2-1 with wins vs. Carolina and Tennessee (he also played well vs. Houston after Nick Foles left the game) but a blowout loss against the Packers. It is unclear yet if he will be able to guide the Eagles to a victory over a team with a winning record before Foles returns, which should be in a few weeks. Sanchez's TD-INT ratio so far is 7-6. Dallas has played well on offense since Tony Romo got back under center after the Arizona game, scoring 31 in back-to-back weeks vs. the Jaguars and Giants. Dallas has topped the 30-point mark in four consecutive games with Romo under center going back to the game at Seattle. It might take that many points to keep up with the Eagles. I think this is going to be a good game but I think Dallas' offense will play well against the Eagles defense -- which is middle-of-road in stopping the run and 30th against the pass -- and the Dallas defense will do just enough against the Philly offense and maybe force Sanchez into a mistake or two, which could be the deciding factor.
Cowboys 34, Eagles 30

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