Note: If you haven't, vote on my poll on the right side of the page. How many wins (total, including tournaments) do you think Virginia will record this season? Thanks!
Perhaps a little late with UVa at 2-0, but it is time for my game-by-game season predictions for the Cavaliers' regular season. And it isn't like Virginia had realistic chances of losing to James Madison or Norfolk State. This is the fifth year I have done this and every year prior, coach Tony Bennett's boys have won more games than I guessed. They have not always reached my prediction for ACC wins (though they have passed that guess all but once), but have always surpassed my estimation for overall wins. Take that for what it is, and hopefully it happens once again.
First, a look back at other years. Keep in mind, these records are regular season only. ACC record is in parentheses.
My 2010-11 prediction: 14-16 (5-11); actual record: 16-14 (7-9)
My 2011-12 prediction: 21-9 (10-6); actual record: 22-8 (9-7)
My 2012-13 prediction: 17-14 (8-10); actual record: 21-10 (11-7)
My 2013-14 prediction: 23-8 (13-5); actual record: 25-6 (16-2)
Now, on to this season.
at JMU - W 79-51
vs. Norfolk State - W 67-39
vs. South Carolina State - W
vs. George Washington - W
vs. Tennessee State - W
vs. La Salle in Brooklyn, N.Y. - W
vs. Rutgers or Vanderbilt in Brooklyn, N.Y. - W
at Maryland - W
at VCU - L
vs. Cleveland State - W
vs. Harvard - L
vs. Davidson - W
at Miami - W
vs. N.C. State - W
at Notre Dame - L
vs. Clemson - W
at Boston College - W
vs. Georgia Tech - W
at Virginia Tech - W
vs. Duke - L
at North Carolina - W
vs. Louisville - W
at N.C. State - W
vs. Wake Forest - W
vs. Pittsburgh - W
vs. Florida State - W
at Wake Forest - W
vs. Virginia Tech - W
at Syracuse - L
at Louisville - L
Prediction: 24-6 (14-4 ACC)
I think it is possible for the team to be even better than last season, but that might not translate to more wins on the court. There is a lot to live up to in regards to last season and Bennett knows this and doesn't want this crop of players to focus on last year's accomplishments.
The toughest games for me to decide between on this schedule were VCU, Maryland, Harvard, Notre Dame, Duke, North Carolina, Louisville both times, and Syracuse. Any of those games can go either way. In particular, I switched the Syracuse game from a win to a loss at the last minute because I think that game could be more important for the Orange than the Cavaliers. They could need that game more than UVa to boost their NCAA tournament chances. I don't think Syracuse will be awesome this season but it could get up for that game. Admittedly, the Notre Dame game pick has been influenced by what I have seen out of it thus far. The Irish crushed Navy, a team that gave Michigan State a bit of a scare. That game also comes early in the season, when UVa is still trying to figure things out sometimes. I could see Notre Dame taking that one even though Virginia won both meetings easily last year. Another interesting game could be the road game at Miami. The Hurricanes have a transfer from Kansas State, Angel Rodriguez, who played very well Monday night in Miami's upset of No. 8 Florida on the road. Virginia could very well lose at Miami.
If Virginia ends up with 24 wins, that could be good for about a No. 2 or 3 seed in the Big Dance, depending on what happens in the ACC tournament, where I suppose UVa would be about the third- or fourth-place team with 14 wins. Once the Big Dance starts, anything can happen. UVa could be playing its best ball by then, and I would not be shocked if UVa makes it as far if not farther in the tournament than it did a season ago when the Wahoos lost, 61-59, to Michigan State in the Sweet 16.
Perhaps a little late with UVa at 2-0, but it is time for my game-by-game season predictions for the Cavaliers' regular season. And it isn't like Virginia had realistic chances of losing to James Madison or Norfolk State. This is the fifth year I have done this and every year prior, coach Tony Bennett's boys have won more games than I guessed. They have not always reached my prediction for ACC wins (though they have passed that guess all but once), but have always surpassed my estimation for overall wins. Take that for what it is, and hopefully it happens once again.
First, a look back at other years. Keep in mind, these records are regular season only. ACC record is in parentheses.
My 2010-11 prediction: 14-16 (5-11); actual record: 16-14 (7-9)
My 2011-12 prediction: 21-9 (10-6); actual record: 22-8 (9-7)
My 2012-13 prediction: 17-14 (8-10); actual record: 21-10 (11-7)
My 2013-14 prediction: 23-8 (13-5); actual record: 25-6 (16-2)
Now, on to this season.
at JMU - W 79-51
vs. Norfolk State - W 67-39
vs. South Carolina State - W
vs. George Washington - W
vs. Tennessee State - W
vs. La Salle in Brooklyn, N.Y. - W
vs. Rutgers or Vanderbilt in Brooklyn, N.Y. - W
at Maryland - W
at VCU - L
vs. Cleveland State - W
vs. Harvard - L
vs. Davidson - W
at Miami - W
vs. N.C. State - W
at Notre Dame - L
vs. Clemson - W
at Boston College - W
vs. Georgia Tech - W
at Virginia Tech - W
vs. Duke - L
at North Carolina - W
vs. Louisville - W
at N.C. State - W
vs. Wake Forest - W
vs. Pittsburgh - W
vs. Florida State - W
at Wake Forest - W
vs. Virginia Tech - W
at Syracuse - L
at Louisville - L
Prediction: 24-6 (14-4 ACC)
I think it is possible for the team to be even better than last season, but that might not translate to more wins on the court. There is a lot to live up to in regards to last season and Bennett knows this and doesn't want this crop of players to focus on last year's accomplishments.
The toughest games for me to decide between on this schedule were VCU, Maryland, Harvard, Notre Dame, Duke, North Carolina, Louisville both times, and Syracuse. Any of those games can go either way. In particular, I switched the Syracuse game from a win to a loss at the last minute because I think that game could be more important for the Orange than the Cavaliers. They could need that game more than UVa to boost their NCAA tournament chances. I don't think Syracuse will be awesome this season but it could get up for that game. Admittedly, the Notre Dame game pick has been influenced by what I have seen out of it thus far. The Irish crushed Navy, a team that gave Michigan State a bit of a scare. That game also comes early in the season, when UVa is still trying to figure things out sometimes. I could see Notre Dame taking that one even though Virginia won both meetings easily last year. Another interesting game could be the road game at Miami. The Hurricanes have a transfer from Kansas State, Angel Rodriguez, who played very well Monday night in Miami's upset of No. 8 Florida on the road. Virginia could very well lose at Miami.
If Virginia ends up with 24 wins, that could be good for about a No. 2 or 3 seed in the Big Dance, depending on what happens in the ACC tournament, where I suppose UVa would be about the third- or fourth-place team with 14 wins. Once the Big Dance starts, anything can happen. UVa could be playing its best ball by then, and I would not be shocked if UVa makes it as far if not farther in the tournament than it did a season ago when the Wahoos lost, 61-59, to Michigan State in the Sweet 16.
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