Virginia faces N.C. State in first ACC home game

N.C. State at No. 3 Virginia, 7 p.m. ESPN2

The Wahoos somehow escaped Miami on Saturday with an 89-80 double overtime victory. Virginia blew a 19-point first-half lead and Miami tied the game, finally, at the very end with three free throws from Angel Rodriguez after referee Jamie Luckie determined that Justin Anderson hit Rodriguez on the arm on his flailing 3-point attempt, a point argued by Virginia fans. Whether Anderson fouled him or not, all of that could have been avoided if Evan Nolte had hit one of two free throws with the 'Hoos up three, but he missed both. In the first overtime, the Hurricanes took a 69-65 lead but couldn't hold on to it as Anderson was fouled on a 3-point jumper and then made a 3 on the next trip down the floor to tie the game back up. In the second OT, Virginia finally took control. Anthony Gill had a record night vs. Davidson and London Perrantes followed that up with a career-high 26 points against Miami. He made five of nine 3s. Anderson ended up with 16 points and Mike Tobey had 14. 

Record: 11-4, 2-0 ACC
Scorers in double figures: Junior guard Trevor Lacey (17.2), senior guard Ralston Turner (13.1), sophomore guard Anthony Barber (12.2)
Leading rebounders: Sophomore forward Lennard Freeman (6.9), sophomore forward Kyle Washington (4.9), Lacey (4.8), sophomore forward Beejay Anya (4.2)
Assist leaders: Barber (3.5), Lacey (3.4)
Notable: Eight players average double-figure minutes. After the first three, there is a big drop off in scoring for the Wolfpack but two other players average around six points or per game: Washington (6.5) and Caleb Martin (5.9).
Best win: The Wolfpack's list of wins isn't that impressive, but their highest win RPI-wise would be over Boise State, 60-54, on Nov. 28. They also crushed Pittsburgh last time out, 68-50, at home.
Other wins: Tennessee, Richmond, Jackson State, Hofstra, Jacksonville, South Florida, Wake Forest, Charleston Southern, Louisiana Tech
Best loss: West Virginia on a neutral floor
Worst loss: RPI numbers will tell you it was Purdue, but that game was on the road and we know the
worst loss was really at home to Wofford by one.
Other losses: Cincinnati
What N.C. State does well: The Wolfpack put up 72.8 ppg (75th in the country), grab 39.3 boards per game (39th), and shoot 46.4 percent (57th). They also block 6.2 shots per game (10th) and hold opponents to 62.7 ppg (97th).
What N.C. State doesn't do well: It doesn't seem like State passes the ball very well because it ranks just 291st in assists per game. Also, State is 348th in steals.
Why Virginia should not be worried: N.C. State doesn't have a loss as bad as Miami's to Eastern Kentucky, but the Wolfpack don't have a pair of wins as impressive as the Hurricanes' over Florida and Illinois. RPI-wise, N.C. State doesn't have a top-50 RPI victory. If Virginia can shut down at least one of N.C. State's top three scorers, it should come away with the victory because of State's lack of scoring depth. The Cavs did that last year T.J. Warren, holding the ACC's top scorer to just four points of 1 of 9 shooting, and he was averaging about 24 points per game. Virginia crushed State by 31 in Raleigh last season so it seems unlikely that the result could be a loss at JPJ. Despite the close game against Miami, let's not forget that Virginia had a 19-point lead at one point. It won't give away that kind of lead many times. The fact is Virginia was the better team by a long shot over Miami in the first half and it is certainly possible Virginia plays both halves against N.C. State.
Why Virginia should be worried: Virginia seems ripe for a loss after a close call against Davidson and an even closer call against Miami. N.C. State is still in need of a signature win to boost its NCAA tournament resume and I am sure would love to do that in Charlottesville and it probably sees UVa as a vulnerable third-ranked team. Sometimes when a team has multiple guards that can really score, UVa has struggled and N.C. State has a good trio in Lacey, Turner, and Barber. Miami out-rebounded UVa and Miami's rebounding margin coming into the contest was terrible. State has elite rebounding numbers so it should have an even better chance of out-rebounding Virginia.

Comments