No. 4 Duke at No. 2 Virginia, 7 p.m. Saturday ESPN
If you are a Virginia fan, and haven't been living under a rock, you know by now the hoopla surrounding Saturday's matchup against Duke at John Paul Jones Arena.
Every game against a Mike Krzyzewski-led Duke squad has the potential to be a real battle, but Saturday's edition of Duke-UVa is extra special. Virginia is trying to get to 20-0 for the first time since 1980-81 and is No 2 in the country. The nation has recognized that the Cavaliers have a great team and have been building a great program under coach Tony Bennett over the past six seasons. As such, ESPN's "College GameDay" is making its first visit to Charlottesville. The town is pumped for the visit of the national pre-game program. The basketball show is not as old as the football show and neither have made it to Grounds before. No surprise for football, though I did feel like a couple season-ending games against Virginia Tech had a chance to attract the show. Students and fans are coming out extra early in the morning to line up to get into JPJ for the show, which will start at 10 a.m. on ESPNU and then continue on ESPN at 11 a.m. After the show ends at noon, JPJ is going to get cleared out and then several hours later, filled up again to what will certainly be a packed and rocking house.
Duke is coming in with the nation's No. 1-recruiting class. Early in the season, the Blue Devils didn't disappoint. They bolted out to a 14-0 record and beat all but one opponent by double digits. Since then, though, Duke has gone 3-3, with losses to N.C. State, Miami, and Notre Dame and wins over St. John's, Louisville, and Pittsburgh. So how good are the Blue Devils?
First off, guard Rasheed Sulaimon, who was Duke's sixth-leading scorer (7.5 ppg), but provided depth, was kicked off the team after the team's latest loss to Notre Dame. All signs point to him being a locker room nuisance. He often had blows up in games, earning him technical fouls. Eventually, the build up of problems became too much for Krzyzewski. Perhaps one final incident after the loss to the Irish pushed coach K over the edge. He had never kicked anyone off the team in his more than 30 years at Duke. Sulaimon, a junior, saw his points and minutes dwindle each season so perhaps Duke will be better off without him. Still, the Blue Devils lose a body off the bench and quality depth. Duke had its best win of the season at then-No. 2 Wisconsin when Sulaimon had a season-best 14 points. Duke is down to just six players that average double figure minutes per game and also
Marshall Plumlee off the bench, who averages nine minutes per game.
Three of Duke's four top scorers are freshmen. Jahlil Okafor has been the real deal for the Blue Devils. The 6-foot-11 center from Chicago is averaging 18.7 ppg and 9.4 rebounds per game. He is known for being a great passer as well, something that could come in handy when Virginia doubles him when he catches a pass down low. A lot of Duke's offense could depend on if he can make plays out of the double team and if his teammates can finish when he gives them a nice pass. He shoots just 56.2 percent from the line, so giving up some fouls on him would not be a bad strategy. Quinn Cook, a senior point guard, is Duke's second-leading scorer at 14.4 ppg. He also takes down 3.4 boards and dishes out 2.8 assists per game. Tyus Jones, a freshman guard, is Duke's third-leading scorer at 10.9 ppg and he also is the team's leading assist maker at five assists per game. The last of Duke's trio of star freshmen is Justise Winslow, a freshman forward that is putting up 10.7 ppg and 4.5 rpg. Senior forward Amile Jefferson, Duke's last starter, is at 8.8 ppg and 7.4 rpg.
Duke is averaging 81.2 ppg (11th in the country), is 19th in rebounding margin, 31st in assists, eighth in field-goal percentage (49.6), but 144th in points allowed (64.6). Duke's defense at the beginning of the season was looking very stout but has fallen off as of late. In their first 13 games, the Blue Devils gave up 60.6 ppg. In their last seven games, the Devils have surrendered 72 ppg. Virginia's efficient offense should be able to find holes in Duke's defense. The Devils are also shaky at the line at 69.4 percent (159th). From beyond the arc, Duke shoots 37.7 percent, 49th. Sulaimon was the team's only threat great than 40 percent from 3, but Duke has some other solid shooters in Cook, Jones, and Winslow, all between 37 and 39 percent.
Duke's win on the road at Wisconsin was very, very good. But overall, Duke's non-conference schedule was nothing to brag about. Its other non-ACC victories came over Presbyterian, Fairfield, a down-year Michigan State team, Temple, Stanford, Furman, Army, Elon, a struggling Connecticut squad, Toledo, Wofford, and St. John's. And Wisconsin was the only road game in that bunch. The rest were in Durham or on a neutral floor (except for maybe St. John's, though you know there were a ton of Duke fans at Madison Square Garden to see coach K try to snag his 1,000th career 'W').
When I was growing up and getting into Virginia and college basketball, Duke always seemed to have its best success with players that stuck around for three to four years. They weren't always spectacular players, but they were experienced, solid, and annoyingly good, guys such as Shane Battier, Carlos Boozer, J.J. Redick, Shelden Williams, Jay Williams and on to more recent guys like Brian Zoubeck, Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer, Mason Plumlee, and Ryan Kelly. In the last few years, though, coach K has turned more to the one-and-done approach to recruiting favored by Kentucky's John Calipari. Duke has picked up some really talented recruits in recent seasons such as Kyrie Irving, Austin Rivers, Michael Gbinije (transferred to Syracuse), and Jabari Parker. However, these young teams have fallen short of the greatness that coach K has been used to in Durham. The 2009-10 team was the last to win an NCAA title and the Blue Devils have bowed out of the Big Dance in their first or second games four times in the past eight seasons and has been upset by the likes of Lehigh and Mercer two out of the last three seasons in the tournament's second round (first round for all but the relatively new "First Four" participants).
In my mind, Duke won't be able to get back to the elite of the elite with this model and needs to return to more of a team-oriented approach. I think that is how coach K built his greatest teams and what he knows best. The newer approach doesn't suit him. He was best at teaching for the long haul and getting a squad of players to come together to form a title-contending unit over four seasons. It will be interesting to see what Krzyzewski does in coming years. He has reached the 1,000-victory plateau and is 67, two weeks away from his 68th birthday. Will he re-think what he is doing at Duke and change things up, or continue to try to win with one-and-done model until retirement?
Virginia has the edge in Saturday's game partly because it seems to be following somewhat of an old Duke model: team building, something I think Duke needs to return to. Duke has very talented players and could certainly beat the Cavaliers on any given night, but over the course of 10 games, Virginia should win more than it loses. That is why I think UVa has won two out of the last three meetings between the two schools. It has more experience, more cohesion, a better defense, and possibly coaching that is just as good. It might not have as much talent as Duke, but those other qualities make up for those gaps.
I certainly expect Duke to make a run or two during Saturday's contest, and the Blue Devils might even lead at halftime, but over the course of 40 minutes, Virginia's defense and depth should wear the Blue Devils down. How Duke's star freshmen respond to a frenzied atmosphere, a unique and stout defense, and the veteran savvy of the Wahoos will go a long ways in determining the outcome of the game.
If Virginia doesn't keep its foot on the gas pedal like against Virginia Tech, it could find itself in some trouble. But I expect UVa to look more like the team that started and finished the game against the Hokies. I would be shocked for UVa to come out flat. Maybe nervous, but not flat. UVa has had a week to rest up, prepare, and think about this game. The players know it is a big chance to impress on the national stage. Duke, meanwhile, played more recently and is coming off a loss at Notre Dame on Wednesday. Naturally, the Blue Devils haven't had as much time to strategize for the game. That could hurt them even more since they have three key players that are very young.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 10-15
If you are a Virginia fan, and haven't been living under a rock, you know by now the hoopla surrounding Saturday's matchup against Duke at John Paul Jones Arena.
Every game against a Mike Krzyzewski-led Duke squad has the potential to be a real battle, but Saturday's edition of Duke-UVa is extra special. Virginia is trying to get to 20-0 for the first time since 1980-81 and is No 2 in the country. The nation has recognized that the Cavaliers have a great team and have been building a great program under coach Tony Bennett over the past six seasons. As such, ESPN's "College GameDay" is making its first visit to Charlottesville. The town is pumped for the visit of the national pre-game program. The basketball show is not as old as the football show and neither have made it to Grounds before. No surprise for football, though I did feel like a couple season-ending games against Virginia Tech had a chance to attract the show. Students and fans are coming out extra early in the morning to line up to get into JPJ for the show, which will start at 10 a.m. on ESPNU and then continue on ESPN at 11 a.m. After the show ends at noon, JPJ is going to get cleared out and then several hours later, filled up again to what will certainly be a packed and rocking house.
Duke is coming in with the nation's No. 1-recruiting class. Early in the season, the Blue Devils didn't disappoint. They bolted out to a 14-0 record and beat all but one opponent by double digits. Since then, though, Duke has gone 3-3, with losses to N.C. State, Miami, and Notre Dame and wins over St. John's, Louisville, and Pittsburgh. So how good are the Blue Devils?
First off, guard Rasheed Sulaimon, who was Duke's sixth-leading scorer (7.5 ppg), but provided depth, was kicked off the team after the team's latest loss to Notre Dame. All signs point to him being a locker room nuisance. He often had blows up in games, earning him technical fouls. Eventually, the build up of problems became too much for Krzyzewski. Perhaps one final incident after the loss to the Irish pushed coach K over the edge. He had never kicked anyone off the team in his more than 30 years at Duke. Sulaimon, a junior, saw his points and minutes dwindle each season so perhaps Duke will be better off without him. Still, the Blue Devils lose a body off the bench and quality depth. Duke had its best win of the season at then-No. 2 Wisconsin when Sulaimon had a season-best 14 points. Duke is down to just six players that average double figure minutes per game and also
Three of Duke's four top scorers are freshmen. Jahlil Okafor has been the real deal for the Blue Devils. The 6-foot-11 center from Chicago is averaging 18.7 ppg and 9.4 rebounds per game. He is known for being a great passer as well, something that could come in handy when Virginia doubles him when he catches a pass down low. A lot of Duke's offense could depend on if he can make plays out of the double team and if his teammates can finish when he gives them a nice pass. He shoots just 56.2 percent from the line, so giving up some fouls on him would not be a bad strategy. Quinn Cook, a senior point guard, is Duke's second-leading scorer at 14.4 ppg. He also takes down 3.4 boards and dishes out 2.8 assists per game. Tyus Jones, a freshman guard, is Duke's third-leading scorer at 10.9 ppg and he also is the team's leading assist maker at five assists per game. The last of Duke's trio of star freshmen is Justise Winslow, a freshman forward that is putting up 10.7 ppg and 4.5 rpg. Senior forward Amile Jefferson, Duke's last starter, is at 8.8 ppg and 7.4 rpg.
Duke is averaging 81.2 ppg (11th in the country), is 19th in rebounding margin, 31st in assists, eighth in field-goal percentage (49.6), but 144th in points allowed (64.6). Duke's defense at the beginning of the season was looking very stout but has fallen off as of late. In their first 13 games, the Blue Devils gave up 60.6 ppg. In their last seven games, the Devils have surrendered 72 ppg. Virginia's efficient offense should be able to find holes in Duke's defense. The Devils are also shaky at the line at 69.4 percent (159th). From beyond the arc, Duke shoots 37.7 percent, 49th. Sulaimon was the team's only threat great than 40 percent from 3, but Duke has some other solid shooters in Cook, Jones, and Winslow, all between 37 and 39 percent.
Duke's win on the road at Wisconsin was very, very good. But overall, Duke's non-conference schedule was nothing to brag about. Its other non-ACC victories came over Presbyterian, Fairfield, a down-year Michigan State team, Temple, Stanford, Furman, Army, Elon, a struggling Connecticut squad, Toledo, Wofford, and St. John's. And Wisconsin was the only road game in that bunch. The rest were in Durham or on a neutral floor (except for maybe St. John's, though you know there were a ton of Duke fans at Madison Square Garden to see coach K try to snag his 1,000th career 'W').
When I was growing up and getting into Virginia and college basketball, Duke always seemed to have its best success with players that stuck around for three to four years. They weren't always spectacular players, but they were experienced, solid, and annoyingly good, guys such as Shane Battier, Carlos Boozer, J.J. Redick, Shelden Williams, Jay Williams and on to more recent guys like Brian Zoubeck, Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer, Mason Plumlee, and Ryan Kelly. In the last few years, though, coach K has turned more to the one-and-done approach to recruiting favored by Kentucky's John Calipari. Duke has picked up some really talented recruits in recent seasons such as Kyrie Irving, Austin Rivers, Michael Gbinije (transferred to Syracuse), and Jabari Parker. However, these young teams have fallen short of the greatness that coach K has been used to in Durham. The 2009-10 team was the last to win an NCAA title and the Blue Devils have bowed out of the Big Dance in their first or second games four times in the past eight seasons and has been upset by the likes of Lehigh and Mercer two out of the last three seasons in the tournament's second round (first round for all but the relatively new "First Four" participants).
In my mind, Duke won't be able to get back to the elite of the elite with this model and needs to return to more of a team-oriented approach. I think that is how coach K built his greatest teams and what he knows best. The newer approach doesn't suit him. He was best at teaching for the long haul and getting a squad of players to come together to form a title-contending unit over four seasons. It will be interesting to see what Krzyzewski does in coming years. He has reached the 1,000-victory plateau and is 67, two weeks away from his 68th birthday. Will he re-think what he is doing at Duke and change things up, or continue to try to win with one-and-done model until retirement?
Virginia has the edge in Saturday's game partly because it seems to be following somewhat of an old Duke model: team building, something I think Duke needs to return to. Duke has very talented players and could certainly beat the Cavaliers on any given night, but over the course of 10 games, Virginia should win more than it loses. That is why I think UVa has won two out of the last three meetings between the two schools. It has more experience, more cohesion, a better defense, and possibly coaching that is just as good. It might not have as much talent as Duke, but those other qualities make up for those gaps.
I certainly expect Duke to make a run or two during Saturday's contest, and the Blue Devils might even lead at halftime, but over the course of 40 minutes, Virginia's defense and depth should wear the Blue Devils down. How Duke's star freshmen respond to a frenzied atmosphere, a unique and stout defense, and the veteran savvy of the Wahoos will go a long ways in determining the outcome of the game.
If Virginia doesn't keep its foot on the gas pedal like against Virginia Tech, it could find itself in some trouble. But I expect UVa to look more like the team that started and finished the game against the Hokies. I would be shocked for UVa to come out flat. Maybe nervous, but not flat. UVa has had a week to rest up, prepare, and think about this game. The players know it is a big chance to impress on the national stage. Duke, meanwhile, played more recently and is coming off a loss at Notre Dame on Wednesday. Naturally, the Blue Devils haven't had as much time to strategize for the game. That could hurt them even more since they have three key players that are very young.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 10-15
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