I am going to go region by region in the Big Dance and just give some thoughts, starting with Virginia in the East Region, after the release Sunday of the bracket. This isn't meant to be extremely detailed or all inclusive, so feel free to email me thoughts or comment below the post. I hope to have more written this week, especially about UVa's second-round (remember, first round is the First Four in Dayton, Ohio) game against Belmont on Friday.
Throughout, NCAA tournament teams are bolded in first references for each entry but only if that reference is to this year's team. For instance, VCU is not bolded when talking about the Stephen F. Austin's upset win over the Rams in last year's tournament.
East Region (Syracuse)
No. 2 Virginia (29-3): There was much hand-wringing among the UVa fanbase as the selection show got closer and closer. Would the Cavs earn a second straight No. 1 seed in the tournament? Had they been passed by the likes of Villanova, Wisconsin, Arizona, even Duke? The answer ended up being "yes" to all those teams. Correct me if I'm wrong, but CBS put up the race for No. 1 seeds graphic and had the order of the top six teams as Kentucky-Villanova-Duke-Wisconsin-Arizona-Virginia. I must say that I don't completely understand why UVa was perceived to be a No. 1 seed going into the ACC tourney, performed the same as Duke (went 1-1), yet slid down to a No. 2 and the Blue Devils didn't. Virginia won the ACC regular-season title by a game over Duke and did not lose to Miami, N.C. State, or Notre Dame, all teams Duke lost to, and the Blue Devils lost to the Fighting Irish twice. Ok, Duke won the head-to-head game in Charlottesville, but if we go into details, the score was close and Duke needed to come back with some (possibly lucky) 3s. It is not like the Blue Devils controlled the game or won in a blowout. I think this came down to Justin Anderson's injury. He came back and played a combined 26 minutes in UVa's two games but did not score. The committee did not think he looked 100 percent. Had he looked like he was in form, a) Virginia probably would have beaten UNC, and b) the committee probably would have respected UVa as a No. 1 seed more headed into the tournament. I can't argue against Virginia's resume, but I can agree with the committee and say UVa did not look the part of a No. 1 seed in the ACC tournament. Kentucky, Villanova, Wisconsin, and Arizona (a No. 2) all did in their respective conference tournaments. That doesn't mean I agree with the Duke selection, but outside the loss to Notre Dame in the ACC semifinals, the Blue Devils have been playing very well.
With all that said, the No. 1 seed is not a huge deal to me. As a No. 2 seed, that team faces the 15-7-3-1 seeds if it keeps advancing and the bracket's top seeds keep winning. As a No. 2 seed, that team faces the 16-8-4-2 seeds if it keeps advancing and the bracket's top seeds keep winning. Not a huge difference. Some fans have said the No. 1 seeds count as evidenced by Virginia now possibly having to face a tough No. 7 team in Michigan State in the third round. I think that is just bad luck/the committee wanting to create interesting matchups. Had Michigan State lost one more game in the regular season but still almost knocked off Wisconsin in the Big Ten tournament championship, it might have been a No. 8 seed, and then UVa could have maybe faced the Spartans in the third round anyway had UVa gotten a No. 1 seed.
Eventually, if you are a serious national championship contender, the opponents will be tough. Virginia is on the opposite of the bracket from Kentucky, meaning the Cavs could face the No. 1 overall seed Wildcats in the title game. Advancing and then not facing UK until the title game with a chance to keep the 'Cats from going 40-0 -- that's about as much as a team can hope for at this point, right?
No. 15 Belmont (22-10): Virginia's first opponent is the No. 15 seed Belmont Bruins out of Nashville and the Atlantic Sun conference. They have won seven straight games and knocked off the conference's first-place team, Murray State, in the tournament title game when former UVa player Taylor Barnette hit a 3-pointer to win the game. The Bruins love to shoot the 3 and make 38.2 percent of them. They score 74.5 points per game (32nd in the country). Virginia will need to slow the game down and use its size to avoid the 15-2 upset, which has happened seven times.
No. 7 Michigan State (23-11): It's March? Then Michigan State must be playing well. Tom Izzo and the Spartans are peaking at the right time once again after being just 13-7 through Jan. 24. The Spartans took No. 1 seed Wisconsin into overtime of the Big Ten title game before bowing out. MSU has a favorable second-round matchup against Georgia and then would face -- guess who -- Virginia in the round of 32 should UVa get past Belmont. The Cavaliers and Spartans played one of the best games of the tourney last year with MSU winning, 61-59, in the Sweet 16.
No. 8 N.C. State (20-13): The Wolfpack were said to have been locked into the tournament after missing landmines at the end of the regular season against Clemson and Syracuse. Beating Pittsburgh in the ACC tournament was just icing on the cake. The days of knocking off Duke and North Carolina seem to be in the past, however. The Wolfies are not playing their best ball right now. In the quarterfinals of the ACC tourney, Duke crushed N.C. State, 77-53, and the Wolfpack also lost to a bad Boston College team by 16 on Feb. 28. State faces LSU in the second round.
No. 4 Louisville (24-8): Like UVa, the Cardinals aren't coming in on the highest of notes. They haven't really been the same since the dismissal of point guard Chris Jones. They were handled by UNC in the ACC quarterfinals, needed a last-second shot from an unlikely shooter to beat UVa at home, and lost to Notre Dame at home by double digits -- all within the past couple weeks. Louisville faces UC Irvine in the second round. The Anteaters feature 7-foot-6 center (!) Mamadou Ndiaye.
No. 5 Northern Iowa (30-3): Watch out for the Panthers, who knocked Wichita State from the Missouri Valley Conference perch this season. They have a very strong defense and I think they might be under-seeded at the No. 5 spot. If UNI survives the dangerous 12-5 matchup against Wyoming, the rest of the East should be put on alert. Louisville would be UNI's third-round opponent if they both advance.
South Region (Houston)
No. 1 Duke (29-4): The Blue Devils were already mentioned as a controversial No. 1 seed. They are capable of winning the whole tournament, though, and also capable of losing in an upset. Last year, as a No. 2, the Devils lost to No. 15 Mercer, and, in 2012, they lost to No. 15 Lehigh, also as a 2. The Blue Devils' first opponent is the winner of the First Four matchup between North Florida and Robert Morris.
No. 12 Stephen F. Austin (29-4): The Lumberjacks, of the Southland Conference, are back in the dangerous No. 12 spot. Last year, they knocked off No. 5 VCU in the same game in overtime. SFA has won 28 of 29 games and can score (9th in the nation), assist (1st), and make field goals (5th). Watch out No. 5 seed Utah.
No. 4 Georgetown (21-10): The Hoyas didn't make the tournament last year and have been upset in recent seasons by a No. 15, Florida Gulf Coast (two seasons ago), two 11s, N.C. State (three seasons ago) and VCU (four seasons ago), and a 14, Ohio (five seasons ago). To say they are on upset alertEastern Washington is an understatement.
against No. 13
No. 11 UCLA (20-13): I am with analysts and fans that think certain teams, such as Temple and Colorado State, should have been selected before the Bruins. UCLA's RPI is lower than those teams and it has exactly one win all year on the road against a winning team and just two road wins overall. SMU, under legendary coach Larry Brown, is the Bruins' second-round opponent.
Midwest Region (Cleveland)
No. 1 Kentucky (34-0): I think Kentucky is overrated -- I don't think it is all-time great and I think I am picking someone else to win the championship -- but even I have to admit the Wildcats have been very impressive lately in winning four consecutive games by double digits, three of those in the conference tournament. They just weren't challenged in the SEC tourney. They have had bumps in the road this year, though. Georgia, Florida, LSU, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Mississippi, and Louisville all played them tough. Even Columbia, which ended up being a 13-15 team in the Ivy League, led the Wildcats, 25-23, at the half. UK is vulnerable but it will probably take an off-game from it and an on game from its opponent to not win the title because Kentucky might have mostly left its struggles in the past. The sacrificial lamb in the second round for UK is Hampton or Manhattan.
No. 12 Buffalo (23-9): Keep an on those 12s! The Bulls could be another tough out. They are the MAC champion and face West Virginia in the second round. Buffalo has won eight games in a row. Five of the Bulls' nine losses have been by single digits. Buffalo led both Kentucky (by five) and Wisconsin (by one) at the half before losing to both, by 19 and 12, respectively.
No. 11 Texas (20-13): The Longhorns, like UCLA, are another team from a power conference that some people think should not have gotten in. Texas was preseason top 10, but ended up in danger of dropping out of the tournament picture all together with a four-game losing streak in February. UT also lost eight of 11 in the same stretch. Thanks to a strong, deep conference that earned NCAA tournament berths for seven of its 10 teams, a late-season win over Baylor, and a strong showing in the conference tournament quarterfinals vs. eventual champ Iowa State (lost by two), the Longhorns snuck in. Texas is also another team that fared well against Kentucky, tying the Wildcats at halftime and hanging around in the second half for a 12-point loss. I don't know if Texas is equipped for a long run in the dance, but I do think it can do more damage than UCLA. The 'Horns' first opponent is No. 6 Butler.
No. 3 Notre Dame (29-5): The Fighting Irish are obviously the hottest ACC team in the tournament,Duke, and UNC on consecutive days. They have two wins each over Duke and Carolina. Overall, Notre Dame has won five straight games. The Irish can score in bunches and could be a trendy to pick to win a few games. Notre Dame faces CAA champion Northeastern first, and then would face Texas or Butler in the third round.
having won the conference tournament by going on an impressive run of beating Miami,
No. 7 Wichita State (28-4): The Shockers earned a No. 1 seed last year, winning every regular-season game and the Missouri Valley Conference tournament before losing in a classic against Kentucky in the third round of the Big Dance. They are a little under the radar this year, and that could be bad news for opponents. Despite getting upset by Illinois State in the MVC tourney this year, the Shockers had a better regular-season conference record (17-1) than eventual tournament champ Northern Iowa (16-2). WSU faces Indiana first and Kansas or New Mexico State second if it gets past the Hoosiers. Obviously, a matchup between the Shockers and Jayhawks, both from The Sunflower State, would be a really fun game to watch.
West Region (Los Angeles)
No. 1 Wisconsin (31-3): Virginia's kindred basketball spirit finished on a stronger note than their Pack-Line brethren, winning six games in a row and the Big Ten tournament. However, the Big Ten was down this season and the Badgers' resume isn't actually chock-full of really good wins despite the gaudy record. They are a favorite to win it all outside Kentucky but I think they could actually be upset. However, they do have probably the best player in the country in center Frank Kaminsky, who is Dirk Nowitzki-esque. Wisconsin faces Coastal Carolina first and then Oregon or Oklahoma State should the Badgers avoid the historic upset.
No. 16 Coastal Carolina (24-9): Oh hello there, familiar foe. The Chanticleers just about put me in full-on psychological breakdown mode last season, taking a 10-point lead in the first half on my Wahoos in the second round of the tournament when they were a No. 16 and Virginia was a 1. For that reason, I kept my eye on them this year. I am surprised they are a 16 again. I think they are better than that and could be a 15 or 14. Coastal lost to Mississippi by just three points. I don't think Coastal will beat Wisconsin, but it could push the Badgers for several minutes.
No. 4 North Carolina (24-11): The Tar Heels surprised me a bit with how well they finished down the stretch after losing, 58-46, to N.C. State on Feb. 24. This team is capable of going far with good athleticism and an offense that has rounded into form and a team that can shoot better than last year. If the Tar Heels' defense doesn't let them down, they could go far. They get Harvard first, which was blasted by 49 points by Virginia. A third-round game would pit UNC against Arkansas or Wofford.
No. 11 BYU (25-9): The Cougars have to play in the First Four against Mississippi but I like them as a dark horse to win a few games. All but one of their nine losses was by single digits. Gonzaga beat them in the West Coast Conference tournament championship by 16. All but one of their losses came against teams with winning records and of course they got one of the wins of the year by winning at Gonzaga. BYU can score and shoots well but is ranked 315th in points allowed per game. Beating the Rebels would earn the Cougars a second-round date with Xavier.
No. 7 VCU (26-9): This team, just a couple weeks ago, didn't look like one worthy of the Big Dance despite a high RPI thanks to smart scheduling. It had lost six of 10 and was struggling with the loss of point guard and Havoc-starting point guard Briante Weber to a season-ending injury. But then the Rams went on a run and now have won five in a row. In the A-10 tournament, at first, the Rams Davidson by 20 when just a couple weeks before, the Wildcats had beat VCU by almost 30, and finally taking out Dayton in the title game. Ohio State gets a crack at VCU first and should the Rams advance, they would probably draw Arizona in the third round.
started slowly, eeking by Fordham, a team that finished the season 10-21, by six points. But VCU got stronger as the tournament went on, finally beating rival Richmond after getting swept in the regular season, downing
No. 2 Arizona (31-3): The Wildcats, like Wisconsin, play like Virginia with a good defense but they can also score better than UVa. Arizona's losses to mediocre teams in Arizona State, UNLV, and Oregon State are a bit disconcerting, but it is hard to ignore the way it finished: The Wildcats have won 11 straight games, nine by double digits, and destroyed Oregon, 80-52, in the Pac-12 tournament title game.
Surprises and snubs
Normally, I like when big-league teams make it in, but this year I feel like the little guys might have gotten the snub.
Surprises
Indiana (20-13, No. 10 seed in Midwest): Only went 9-9 in down year for Big Ten and lost nine of its final 14 games, including a loss to Northwestern. Also lost to Eastern Washington, a dance team but no doubt a team Indiana should probably not lose to.
Oklahoma State (18-13, No. 9 seed in West): Worst winning percentage in the tournament besides Hampton and UAB. Finished below .500 in the Big 12 and has gone just 1-6 in last seven contests.
LSU (22-10, No. 9 seed in East): Not surprised the Tigers made it, but they struggled at the end of the year with losses to Auburn and Tennessee. Auburn has actually beaten LSU twice this season and LSU also has losses to Mississippi State, Missouri, Clemson, and Old Dominion.
Mississippi (20-12, No. 11 seed in First Four vs. Boise State): The Rebels lost four of five and their last two losses came against South Carolina and Vanderbilt.
-Already mentioned Texas and UCLA
Snubs
Colorado State (27-6): The Rams were in the top 30 of RPI and thought to be safe but went just 2-3 against top-50 teams. Still, they finished just one game back in the Mountain West of San Diego State (8 seed) and Boise State (First Four) and two games ahead of eventual MWC tourney champ Wyoming. Perhaps the MWC is now getting punished for its reputation of not advancing teams in recent tournaments, as evidenced by the relatively low seeds. CSU started the season 14-0 and won
six in a row before losing to SDSU in the MWC semifinals at the end of the year.
Temple (23-10): The Owls had eight top-100 wins and won by 25 (!) at Kansas. As bad as the CSU snub is, this one might be worse. Temple had the 61st-rated schedule, better than BYU's, Ohio State's, Boise State's, and LSU's, all teams that also finished below the Owls in RPI as well but got at-large bids.
Miami (21-12): Miami had one of the year's best wins, by 16 at Duke. It just couldn't follow it up with anything else very meaningful besides a home win against N.C. State. The Hurricanes missed on chances by losing by single digits to Louisville (twice), North Carolina, Notre Dame (twice), and Virginia. They also shot themselves in the foot by losing to Eastern Kentucky, Georgia Tech, Florida State, and Wake Forest.
Rhode Island (22-9): The Rams beat no one of note in their non-conference schedule and went 13-5 in the A-10, but mostly beat up on the bottom of the league, getting zero wins over VCU, Davidson, and Dayton.
Richmond (19-13): Richmond's problem was early-season struggles, where it lost to Old Dominion, JMU, Wake Forest, and Northeastern. The Spiders, who beat VCU twice and Davidson once, also lost to A-10 foe George Mason, which finished 9-22.
Throughout, NCAA tournament teams are bolded in first references for each entry but only if that reference is to this year's team. For instance, VCU is not bolded when talking about the Stephen F. Austin's upset win over the Rams in last year's tournament.
East Region (Syracuse)
No. 2 Virginia (29-3): There was much hand-wringing among the UVa fanbase as the selection show got closer and closer. Would the Cavs earn a second straight No. 1 seed in the tournament? Had they been passed by the likes of Villanova, Wisconsin, Arizona, even Duke? The answer ended up being "yes" to all those teams. Correct me if I'm wrong, but CBS put up the race for No. 1 seeds graphic and had the order of the top six teams as Kentucky-Villanova-Duke-Wisconsin-Arizona-Virginia. I must say that I don't completely understand why UVa was perceived to be a No. 1 seed going into the ACC tourney, performed the same as Duke (went 1-1), yet slid down to a No. 2 and the Blue Devils didn't. Virginia won the ACC regular-season title by a game over Duke and did not lose to Miami, N.C. State, or Notre Dame, all teams Duke lost to, and the Blue Devils lost to the Fighting Irish twice. Ok, Duke won the head-to-head game in Charlottesville, but if we go into details, the score was close and Duke needed to come back with some (possibly lucky) 3s. It is not like the Blue Devils controlled the game or won in a blowout. I think this came down to Justin Anderson's injury. He came back and played a combined 26 minutes in UVa's two games but did not score. The committee did not think he looked 100 percent. Had he looked like he was in form, a) Virginia probably would have beaten UNC, and b) the committee probably would have respected UVa as a No. 1 seed more headed into the tournament. I can't argue against Virginia's resume, but I can agree with the committee and say UVa did not look the part of a No. 1 seed in the ACC tournament. Kentucky, Villanova, Wisconsin, and Arizona (a No. 2) all did in their respective conference tournaments. That doesn't mean I agree with the Duke selection, but outside the loss to Notre Dame in the ACC semifinals, the Blue Devils have been playing very well.
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| Justin Anderson's injury probably helped knock UVa to a 2 seed. |
Eventually, if you are a serious national championship contender, the opponents will be tough. Virginia is on the opposite of the bracket from Kentucky, meaning the Cavs could face the No. 1 overall seed Wildcats in the title game. Advancing and then not facing UK until the title game with a chance to keep the 'Cats from going 40-0 -- that's about as much as a team can hope for at this point, right?
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| Taylor Barnette, who transferred from UVa, can fill it from 3-point land for Belmont. |
No. 7 Michigan State (23-11): It's March? Then Michigan State must be playing well. Tom Izzo and the Spartans are peaking at the right time once again after being just 13-7 through Jan. 24. The Spartans took No. 1 seed Wisconsin into overtime of the Big Ten title game before bowing out. MSU has a favorable second-round matchup against Georgia and then would face -- guess who -- Virginia in the round of 32 should UVa get past Belmont. The Cavaliers and Spartans played one of the best games of the tourney last year with MSU winning, 61-59, in the Sweet 16.
No. 8 N.C. State (20-13): The Wolfpack were said to have been locked into the tournament after missing landmines at the end of the regular season against Clemson and Syracuse. Beating Pittsburgh in the ACC tournament was just icing on the cake. The days of knocking off Duke and North Carolina seem to be in the past, however. The Wolfies are not playing their best ball right now. In the quarterfinals of the ACC tourney, Duke crushed N.C. State, 77-53, and the Wolfpack also lost to a bad Boston College team by 16 on Feb. 28. State faces LSU in the second round.
No. 4 Louisville (24-8): Like UVa, the Cardinals aren't coming in on the highest of notes. They haven't really been the same since the dismissal of point guard Chris Jones. They were handled by UNC in the ACC quarterfinals, needed a last-second shot from an unlikely shooter to beat UVa at home, and lost to Notre Dame at home by double digits -- all within the past couple weeks. Louisville faces UC Irvine in the second round. The Anteaters feature 7-foot-6 center (!) Mamadou Ndiaye.
No. 5 Northern Iowa (30-3): Watch out for the Panthers, who knocked Wichita State from the Missouri Valley Conference perch this season. They have a very strong defense and I think they might be under-seeded at the No. 5 spot. If UNI survives the dangerous 12-5 matchup against Wyoming, the rest of the East should be put on alert. Louisville would be UNI's third-round opponent if they both advance.
South Region (Houston)
No. 1 Duke (29-4): The Blue Devils were already mentioned as a controversial No. 1 seed. They are capable of winning the whole tournament, though, and also capable of losing in an upset. Last year, as a No. 2, the Devils lost to No. 15 Mercer, and, in 2012, they lost to No. 15 Lehigh, also as a 2. The Blue Devils' first opponent is the winner of the First Four matchup between North Florida and Robert Morris.
No. 12 Stephen F. Austin (29-4): The Lumberjacks, of the Southland Conference, are back in the dangerous No. 12 spot. Last year, they knocked off No. 5 VCU in the same game in overtime. SFA has won 28 of 29 games and can score (9th in the nation), assist (1st), and make field goals (5th). Watch out No. 5 seed Utah.
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| Tyler Harvey leads Eastern Washington and the nation in scoring. |
No. 4 Georgetown (21-10): The Hoyas didn't make the tournament last year and have been upset in recent seasons by a No. 15, Florida Gulf Coast (two seasons ago), two 11s, N.C. State (three seasons ago) and VCU (four seasons ago), and a 14, Ohio (five seasons ago). To say they are on upset alertEastern Washington is an understatement.
against No. 13
No. 11 UCLA (20-13): I am with analysts and fans that think certain teams, such as Temple and Colorado State, should have been selected before the Bruins. UCLA's RPI is lower than those teams and it has exactly one win all year on the road against a winning team and just two road wins overall. SMU, under legendary coach Larry Brown, is the Bruins' second-round opponent.
Midwest Region (Cleveland)
No. 1 Kentucky (34-0): I think Kentucky is overrated -- I don't think it is all-time great and I think I am picking someone else to win the championship -- but even I have to admit the Wildcats have been very impressive lately in winning four consecutive games by double digits, three of those in the conference tournament. They just weren't challenged in the SEC tourney. They have had bumps in the road this year, though. Georgia, Florida, LSU, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Mississippi, and Louisville all played them tough. Even Columbia, which ended up being a 13-15 team in the Ivy League, led the Wildcats, 25-23, at the half. UK is vulnerable but it will probably take an off-game from it and an on game from its opponent to not win the title because Kentucky might have mostly left its struggles in the past. The sacrificial lamb in the second round for UK is Hampton or Manhattan.
No. 12 Buffalo (23-9): Keep an on those 12s! The Bulls could be another tough out. They are the MAC champion and face West Virginia in the second round. Buffalo has won eight games in a row. Five of the Bulls' nine losses have been by single digits. Buffalo led both Kentucky (by five) and Wisconsin (by one) at the half before losing to both, by 19 and 12, respectively.
No. 11 Texas (20-13): The Longhorns, like UCLA, are another team from a power conference that some people think should not have gotten in. Texas was preseason top 10, but ended up in danger of dropping out of the tournament picture all together with a four-game losing streak in February. UT also lost eight of 11 in the same stretch. Thanks to a strong, deep conference that earned NCAA tournament berths for seven of its 10 teams, a late-season win over Baylor, and a strong showing in the conference tournament quarterfinals vs. eventual champ Iowa State (lost by two), the Longhorns snuck in. Texas is also another team that fared well against Kentucky, tying the Wildcats at halftime and hanging around in the second half for a 12-point loss. I don't know if Texas is equipped for a long run in the dance, but I do think it can do more damage than UCLA. The 'Horns' first opponent is No. 6 Butler.
No. 3 Notre Dame (29-5): The Fighting Irish are obviously the hottest ACC team in the tournament,Duke, and UNC on consecutive days. They have two wins each over Duke and Carolina. Overall, Notre Dame has won five straight games. The Irish can score in bunches and could be a trendy to pick to win a few games. Notre Dame faces CAA champion Northeastern first, and then would face Texas or Butler in the third round.
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| Notre Dame won the ACC tournament title. |
No. 7 Wichita State (28-4): The Shockers earned a No. 1 seed last year, winning every regular-season game and the Missouri Valley Conference tournament before losing in a classic against Kentucky in the third round of the Big Dance. They are a little under the radar this year, and that could be bad news for opponents. Despite getting upset by Illinois State in the MVC tourney this year, the Shockers had a better regular-season conference record (17-1) than eventual tournament champ Northern Iowa (16-2). WSU faces Indiana first and Kansas or New Mexico State second if it gets past the Hoosiers. Obviously, a matchup between the Shockers and Jayhawks, both from The Sunflower State, would be a really fun game to watch.
West Region (Los Angeles)
No. 1 Wisconsin (31-3): Virginia's kindred basketball spirit finished on a stronger note than their Pack-Line brethren, winning six games in a row and the Big Ten tournament. However, the Big Ten was down this season and the Badgers' resume isn't actually chock-full of really good wins despite the gaudy record. They are a favorite to win it all outside Kentucky but I think they could actually be upset. However, they do have probably the best player in the country in center Frank Kaminsky, who is Dirk Nowitzki-esque. Wisconsin faces Coastal Carolina first and then Oregon or Oklahoma State should the Badgers avoid the historic upset.
No. 16 Coastal Carolina (24-9): Oh hello there, familiar foe. The Chanticleers just about put me in full-on psychological breakdown mode last season, taking a 10-point lead in the first half on my Wahoos in the second round of the tournament when they were a No. 16 and Virginia was a 1. For that reason, I kept my eye on them this year. I am surprised they are a 16 again. I think they are better than that and could be a 15 or 14. Coastal lost to Mississippi by just three points. I don't think Coastal will beat Wisconsin, but it could push the Badgers for several minutes.
No. 4 North Carolina (24-11): The Tar Heels surprised me a bit with how well they finished down the stretch after losing, 58-46, to N.C. State on Feb. 24. This team is capable of going far with good athleticism and an offense that has rounded into form and a team that can shoot better than last year. If the Tar Heels' defense doesn't let them down, they could go far. They get Harvard first, which was blasted by 49 points by Virginia. A third-round game would pit UNC against Arkansas or Wofford.
No. 11 BYU (25-9): The Cougars have to play in the First Four against Mississippi but I like them as a dark horse to win a few games. All but one of their nine losses was by single digits. Gonzaga beat them in the West Coast Conference tournament championship by 16. All but one of their losses came against teams with winning records and of course they got one of the wins of the year by winning at Gonzaga. BYU can score and shoots well but is ranked 315th in points allowed per game. Beating the Rebels would earn the Cougars a second-round date with Xavier.
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| Treveon Graham leads the Rams in scoring and can shoot from 3. |
No. 7 VCU (26-9): This team, just a couple weeks ago, didn't look like one worthy of the Big Dance despite a high RPI thanks to smart scheduling. It had lost six of 10 and was struggling with the loss of point guard and Havoc-starting point guard Briante Weber to a season-ending injury. But then the Rams went on a run and now have won five in a row. In the A-10 tournament, at first, the Rams Davidson by 20 when just a couple weeks before, the Wildcats had beat VCU by almost 30, and finally taking out Dayton in the title game. Ohio State gets a crack at VCU first and should the Rams advance, they would probably draw Arizona in the third round.
started slowly, eeking by Fordham, a team that finished the season 10-21, by six points. But VCU got stronger as the tournament went on, finally beating rival Richmond after getting swept in the regular season, downing
No. 2 Arizona (31-3): The Wildcats, like Wisconsin, play like Virginia with a good defense but they can also score better than UVa. Arizona's losses to mediocre teams in Arizona State, UNLV, and Oregon State are a bit disconcerting, but it is hard to ignore the way it finished: The Wildcats have won 11 straight games, nine by double digits, and destroyed Oregon, 80-52, in the Pac-12 tournament title game.
Surprises and snubs
Normally, I like when big-league teams make it in, but this year I feel like the little guys might have gotten the snub.
Surprises
Indiana (20-13, No. 10 seed in Midwest): Only went 9-9 in down year for Big Ten and lost nine of its final 14 games, including a loss to Northwestern. Also lost to Eastern Washington, a dance team but no doubt a team Indiana should probably not lose to.
Oklahoma State (18-13, No. 9 seed in West): Worst winning percentage in the tournament besides Hampton and UAB. Finished below .500 in the Big 12 and has gone just 1-6 in last seven contests.
LSU (22-10, No. 9 seed in East): Not surprised the Tigers made it, but they struggled at the end of the year with losses to Auburn and Tennessee. Auburn has actually beaten LSU twice this season and LSU also has losses to Mississippi State, Missouri, Clemson, and Old Dominion.
Mississippi (20-12, No. 11 seed in First Four vs. Boise State): The Rebels lost four of five and their last two losses came against South Carolina and Vanderbilt.
-Already mentioned Texas and UCLA
Snubs
Colorado State (27-6): The Rams were in the top 30 of RPI and thought to be safe but went just 2-3 against top-50 teams. Still, they finished just one game back in the Mountain West of San Diego State (8 seed) and Boise State (First Four) and two games ahead of eventual MWC tourney champ Wyoming. Perhaps the MWC is now getting punished for its reputation of not advancing teams in recent tournaments, as evidenced by the relatively low seeds. CSU started the season 14-0 and won
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| Larry Eustachy said his Colorado State team was devastated it didn't make the NCAA tournament field. |
Temple (23-10): The Owls had eight top-100 wins and won by 25 (!) at Kansas. As bad as the CSU snub is, this one might be worse. Temple had the 61st-rated schedule, better than BYU's, Ohio State's, Boise State's, and LSU's, all teams that also finished below the Owls in RPI as well but got at-large bids.
Miami (21-12): Miami had one of the year's best wins, by 16 at Duke. It just couldn't follow it up with anything else very meaningful besides a home win against N.C. State. The Hurricanes missed on chances by losing by single digits to Louisville (twice), North Carolina, Notre Dame (twice), and Virginia. They also shot themselves in the foot by losing to Eastern Kentucky, Georgia Tech, Florida State, and Wake Forest.
Rhode Island (22-9): The Rams beat no one of note in their non-conference schedule and went 13-5 in the A-10, but mostly beat up on the bottom of the league, getting zero wins over VCU, Davidson, and Dayton.
Richmond (19-13): Richmond's problem was early-season struggles, where it lost to Old Dominion, JMU, Wake Forest, and Northeastern. The Spiders, who beat VCU twice and Davidson once, also lost to A-10 foe George Mason, which finished 9-22.
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