No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Virginia, 12:10 p.m. CBS
Virginia and Michigan State battled in an epic Sweet 16 game last year that the Spartans won, 61-59. Now this year, the two squads meet one round before that to determine who gets to go to Syracuse for the East Region semifinals.
Let's take a closer look at this year's Spartans.
Record: 24-11, 12-6 Big Ten, lost in Big Ten tournament championship to Wisconsin
Scorers in double figures: Senior guard Travis Trice (14.8), junior guard Denzel Valentine (14.4), senior guard/forward Branden Dawson (12)
Leading rebounders: Dawson (nine), Valentine (6.2), junior forward Matt Costello (5.4), sophomore forward Gavin Schilling (four)
Assist leaders: Trice (5.2), Valentine (4.4), freshman guard Lourawls Nairn Jr. (2.5)
Notable: Junior guard Bryn Forbes, who transferred from Cleveland State, averages 8.8 ppg and is the Spartans' best 3-point shooter at 42.7 percent. One other player not mentioned thus far, Marvin Clark Jr., averages more than 10 minutes and he is putting up 4.8 ppg and 2.3 rpg.
Best win: Then No. 8-Maryland, 62-58, in the Big Ten tournament semifinals in Chicago.
Other wins: Navy, Loyola Illinois, Santa Clara, Rider, Marquette, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Oakland, Eastern Michigan, The Citadel, Indiana (twice), Iowa, Northwestern (twice), Penn State, Rutgers, Michigan (twice), Ohio State (twice), Illinois, Purdue, Georgia (NCAA tournament)
Best loss: MSU took No. 1 seed Wisconsin to overtime of the Big Ten championship game before succumbing, 80-69.
Worst loss: Not even close. A 71-64 overtime home loss Dec. 20 to Texas Southern.
Other losses: Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Maryland (twice), Nebraska, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Common opponents: MSU lost to Duke, 81-71. Virginia lost to Duke, 69-63. MSU lost to Notre Dame, 79-78, in OT. Virginia beat Notre Dame, 62-56. MSU lost to Maryland in double OT, 68-66, lost to the Terps again, 75-59, before beating them in the Big Ten tourney. Virginia defeated Maryland, 76-65.
What Michigan State does well: The profile is similar to last season. MSU scores 71.9 ppg (67th), grabs 37.7 rebounds per game (36th), dish out 17.1 assists per game (fourth), and makes 47.1 percent of its field goals (32nd). The Spartans allow opponents to get only 26.6 rebounds per game (21st), and they block 4.6 shots per game (51st). For all the hubbub about Belmont's 3-point shooting, MSU is slightly higher at 38.6 percent (30th).
What Michigan State does poorly: MSU turns the ball over about 12 times per game or a little less, whether you look at espn.com or ncaa.com. Either way, it ranks it around 100th at taking care of the ball. Not terrible but probably a little worse than your average Tom Izzo team. MSU gives up 63. 4 ppg (88th). Easily, the category where MSU struggles the most is free-throw shooting, which could hurt it in a close game. In that stat, it is at 63.1 percent, 330th in the country. Virginia is above 70 percent and in the nation's top 50 in that category.
Why Virginia should not be worried: This is not the same MSU team that Virginia faced last year.
Yes, MSU is probably once again under seeded at No. 7, but last year, the Spartans were a particularly dangerous No. 4 seed that had gotten healthy and improved enough to win the Big Ten tournament. That team, which lost in the next round to eventual national champion Connecticut, lost big man Adriean Payne, who, as you might recall, could also step out and hit a 3, Keith Appling, and Gary Harris, all of whom are playing pro ball now in the NBA or NBDL. The Spartans' leading scorer now is Trice, who was just a sixth man last season.
While last year's team's struggles could partially be attributed to injuries, this one doesn't really have that luxury as only Javon Bess has sustained a major injury this year and he is not a significant player. This team lost to Texas Southern (an NCAA team but from the lowly Southwestern Athletic Conference), and Nebraska, Illinois, and Minnesota, all teams that did not make the tournament. UVa has not (and obviously cannot at this point) lost to a non-tourney team this season. And while a loss to Kansas on a neutral floor 61-56 is nothing to be ashamed of, this was at the beginning of the season when Kansas was not playing as well and got destroyed by Kentucky by like 40. Kentucky is undefeated but plenty of teams have hung around with the Wildcats. The fact that Kansas did not and then MSU lost to the Jayhawks does not look great for the Spartans.
As they did against Belmont, the Cavaliers have a size advantage over the Spartans, especially on the perimeter. Valentine is MSU's only guard at 6-foot-5. Trice is 6-foot and Nairn Jr. is just 5-foot-10. For UVa, London Perrantes is 6-foot-2 and the rest of the guards are at least 6-foot-5. The Big Ten was down this season. MSU finished third in a weakened conference. Only seven of the 14 teams made the Big Dance and one could argue both Indiana and Purdue didn't belong. Ohio State was not normal Ohio State and Michigan was way off. This MSU team is not as battle-tested as last year's. The ACC is undefeated so far in the NCAA tournament, making it seem like the conference was maybe ahead of some of the other conferences this season.
Why Virginia should be worried: Tom Izzo. I could probably just leave it at that. His record (42-16 in the Big Dance with six Final Fours and a national title in 2000) speaks for itself. He has also gone against the Pack-Line defense a lot, whether last year vs. UVa, several times against Dick Bennett at Wisconsin in the late 90s and early 2000s, or against Bo Ryan's Wisconsin teams now. It's March and the Spartans are playing well. It is hard to believe this is the same team that lost to Texas Southern, needed OT to beat Northwestern, beat Navy by just five, Penn State by just six, lost to Nebraska, and dropped home games against Illinois and Minnesota. Since a road loss to Wisconsin by just six March 1, the Spartans have won five of six games, with all five wins coming against NCAA tournament teams. On the flip side, none of those wins was by double digits.
MSU, though having a down year, is still peaking at the right time and is solid across the board on lots of characteristics. You can almost guarantee this is going to be a dogfight. Virginia has to bring its "A" game anytime it goes up against a traditional power. Clearing this hurdle could be a great mental relief for UVa after last year's narrow loss. You hope that the Wahoos come out with the right mindset. Hopefully last year's loss focused them and they won't come out too amped up or tight. UVa's offense seems to have turned a corner recently with 66 points against UNC in the ACC tournament loss and 79 against Belmont. Scoring in the 70s would almost be a 100 percent win against MSU. I can't see the Cavs getting into a shootout with the Spartans but the defense for UVa has been lacking a little recently (by Tony Bennett's lofty standards). Either way, it is definitely a good thing that it looks like that little extra bit of offensive firepower has returned.
The talk is over. For the 'Hoos, time to get to business. The stakes are set. I'm sure Virginia is itching to get on the court with MSU and I'm sure the Spartans are starting to feel pretty good so we should be in for a great game. It is for me to imagine this game being anything other than close, but I think UVa has a slight edge this season, though one could argue MSU has been playing better recently.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5.
Virginia and Michigan State battled in an epic Sweet 16 game last year that the Spartans won, 61-59. Now this year, the two squads meet one round before that to determine who gets to go to Syracuse for the East Region semifinals.
Let's take a closer look at this year's Spartans.
Record: 24-11, 12-6 Big Ten, lost in Big Ten tournament championship to Wisconsin
Scorers in double figures: Senior guard Travis Trice (14.8), junior guard Denzel Valentine (14.4), senior guard/forward Branden Dawson (12)
Leading rebounders: Dawson (nine), Valentine (6.2), junior forward Matt Costello (5.4), sophomore forward Gavin Schilling (four)
Assist leaders: Trice (5.2), Valentine (4.4), freshman guard Lourawls Nairn Jr. (2.5)
Notable: Junior guard Bryn Forbes, who transferred from Cleveland State, averages 8.8 ppg and is the Spartans' best 3-point shooter at 42.7 percent. One other player not mentioned thus far, Marvin Clark Jr., averages more than 10 minutes and he is putting up 4.8 ppg and 2.3 rpg.
Best win: Then No. 8-Maryland, 62-58, in the Big Ten tournament semifinals in Chicago.
Other wins: Navy, Loyola Illinois, Santa Clara, Rider, Marquette, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Oakland, Eastern Michigan, The Citadel, Indiana (twice), Iowa, Northwestern (twice), Penn State, Rutgers, Michigan (twice), Ohio State (twice), Illinois, Purdue, Georgia (NCAA tournament)
Best loss: MSU took No. 1 seed Wisconsin to overtime of the Big Ten championship game before succumbing, 80-69.
Worst loss: Not even close. A 71-64 overtime home loss Dec. 20 to Texas Southern.
Other losses: Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, Maryland (twice), Nebraska, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Common opponents: MSU lost to Duke, 81-71. Virginia lost to Duke, 69-63. MSU lost to Notre Dame, 79-78, in OT. Virginia beat Notre Dame, 62-56. MSU lost to Maryland in double OT, 68-66, lost to the Terps again, 75-59, before beating them in the Big Ten tourney. Virginia defeated Maryland, 76-65.
What Michigan State does well: The profile is similar to last season. MSU scores 71.9 ppg (67th), grabs 37.7 rebounds per game (36th), dish out 17.1 assists per game (fourth), and makes 47.1 percent of its field goals (32nd). The Spartans allow opponents to get only 26.6 rebounds per game (21st), and they block 4.6 shots per game (51st). For all the hubbub about Belmont's 3-point shooting, MSU is slightly higher at 38.6 percent (30th).
What Michigan State does poorly: MSU turns the ball over about 12 times per game or a little less, whether you look at espn.com or ncaa.com. Either way, it ranks it around 100th at taking care of the ball. Not terrible but probably a little worse than your average Tom Izzo team. MSU gives up 63. 4 ppg (88th). Easily, the category where MSU struggles the most is free-throw shooting, which could hurt it in a close game. In that stat, it is at 63.1 percent, 330th in the country. Virginia is above 70 percent and in the nation's top 50 in that category.
Why Virginia should not be worried: This is not the same MSU team that Virginia faced last year.
While last year's team's struggles could partially be attributed to injuries, this one doesn't really have that luxury as only Javon Bess has sustained a major injury this year and he is not a significant player. This team lost to Texas Southern (an NCAA team but from the lowly Southwestern Athletic Conference), and Nebraska, Illinois, and Minnesota, all teams that did not make the tournament. UVa has not (and obviously cannot at this point) lost to a non-tourney team this season. And while a loss to Kansas on a neutral floor 61-56 is nothing to be ashamed of, this was at the beginning of the season when Kansas was not playing as well and got destroyed by Kentucky by like 40. Kentucky is undefeated but plenty of teams have hung around with the Wildcats. The fact that Kansas did not and then MSU lost to the Jayhawks does not look great for the Spartans.
As they did against Belmont, the Cavaliers have a size advantage over the Spartans, especially on the perimeter. Valentine is MSU's only guard at 6-foot-5. Trice is 6-foot and Nairn Jr. is just 5-foot-10. For UVa, London Perrantes is 6-foot-2 and the rest of the guards are at least 6-foot-5. The Big Ten was down this season. MSU finished third in a weakened conference. Only seven of the 14 teams made the Big Dance and one could argue both Indiana and Purdue didn't belong. Ohio State was not normal Ohio State and Michigan was way off. This MSU team is not as battle-tested as last year's. The ACC is undefeated so far in the NCAA tournament, making it seem like the conference was maybe ahead of some of the other conferences this season.
Why Virginia should be worried: Tom Izzo. I could probably just leave it at that. His record (42-16 in the Big Dance with six Final Fours and a national title in 2000) speaks for itself. He has also gone against the Pack-Line defense a lot, whether last year vs. UVa, several times against Dick Bennett at Wisconsin in the late 90s and early 2000s, or against Bo Ryan's Wisconsin teams now. It's March and the Spartans are playing well. It is hard to believe this is the same team that lost to Texas Southern, needed OT to beat Northwestern, beat Navy by just five, Penn State by just six, lost to Nebraska, and dropped home games against Illinois and Minnesota. Since a road loss to Wisconsin by just six March 1, the Spartans have won five of six games, with all five wins coming against NCAA tournament teams. On the flip side, none of those wins was by double digits.
MSU, though having a down year, is still peaking at the right time and is solid across the board on lots of characteristics. You can almost guarantee this is going to be a dogfight. Virginia has to bring its "A" game anytime it goes up against a traditional power. Clearing this hurdle could be a great mental relief for UVa after last year's narrow loss. You hope that the Wahoos come out with the right mindset. Hopefully last year's loss focused them and they won't come out too amped up or tight. UVa's offense seems to have turned a corner recently with 66 points against UNC in the ACC tournament loss and 79 against Belmont. Scoring in the 70s would almost be a 100 percent win against MSU. I can't see the Cavs getting into a shootout with the Spartans but the defense for UVa has been lacking a little recently (by Tony Bennett's lofty standards). Either way, it is definitely a good thing that it looks like that little extra bit of offensive firepower has returned.
The talk is over. For the 'Hoos, time to get to business. The stakes are set. I'm sure Virginia is itching to get on the court with MSU and I'm sure the Spartans are starting to feel pretty good so we should be in for a great game. It is for me to imagine this game being anything other than close, but I think UVa has a slight edge this season, though one could argue MSU has been playing better recently.
Gut feeling: Virginia wins by 1-5.
Comments
Post a Comment