Quite a few things have gone down since Virginia was eliminated from postseason play March 22 by Michigan State. So let's dive right in and try to make sense of it all.
Justin Anderson declared for the NBA draft. As I have detailed in this space in my prior post, the junior guard is skipping his senior season to try his hand in the NBA. "Simba," as he was affectionately known as by a segment of the fanbase, is expected to be a late first- or early second-round pick.
I understand why he declared. He began this season extremely hot from 3-point land. He was above 50 percent in non-conference play and only came down to 45.2 percent after hitting on 38.3 percent of his bonus shots in ACC games, including zero against FSU and UNC in the ACC tournament. It is possible that Anderson wouldn't have been able to duplicate that kind of shooting next year. He obviously began to fall off from his hot start this season. I highly doubt he would have reverted back to his 30 percent shooting days if he had played his senior season, but I would not have been surprised had he gone back below 40 percent. If he had stayed around the high 30 percent range or higher next year, he probably could have helped his draft stock. It would have been hurt, however, had he fallen significantly below 40 percent. He also could get better at ball handling. He seemed to get better at that throughout his career so I think it stands to reason it would not have gotten worse next season. It is less up to chance. You either are a good ball handler with practice or not very good. And while he looks great going to the rim for a dunk, I think overall his slashing to the basket and finishing in traffic overall could be a bit better and I think he would have gotten better at that next season.
Had he stayed, I think chances are decent Anderson could have been a higher draft pick than he will be this year. The draft class for next year is considered weaker than this class. But, it might not have been a significant increase in stock, maybe not enough to risk another possible injury. That was most likely another big factor in Anderson's decision. Though small, the finger injury was nagging this year and did affect Anderson's play. Had he come back, there is no guarantee he would not have suffered a worse injury. I think the finger injury kind of flashed Anderson's mortality before his eyes. He knew he might have gotten away with a minor injury this time. So he decided to jump while he still has good overall health.
Selfishly, as UVa fans, we wanted Anderson back. Next year's team might have been a truly special one with him. The ceiling would have been a Final Four appearance and perhaps the school's first national title. Publications had UVa as either No. 1 or No. 2 in too-early top 25 rankings. But I understand his decision and will root for him where ever he goes. I do hope he goes in the first round, though, so he feels validated and we feel like he wasn't stolen from us prematurely.
The Cavaliers lose a unique talent with Anderson gone. Several good pieces return to the 2015-16 team, though, and I expect the Wahoos to make another run to the NCAA tournament with a possible ceiling being the Sweet 16. Over the course of an 18-game ACC schedule, it could be difficult for other ACC teams to be as consistent as UVa and the Cavs certainly have another great chance at winning the regular-season title. Ultimate success, though, will be judged on how UVa does in the two postseason tournaments and that is more of a crapshoot and seems to come down more to how hot you are, how healthy you are, and if your offense is clicking.
Even with Anderson gone, two or three starters return to the team depending on how you look at it. London Perrantes, Malcolm Brogdon, Anthony Gill for sure will be in the first five, and Mike Tobey has started plenty of games and will likely be a starter next year. Lastly, Evan Nolte started while Anderson was injured this season and might be a starter next season. But I can also see Marial Shayok starting instead should Tony Bennett go with offense over defense (though Shayok is probably a better on-ball defender, Nolte is probably more entrenched in the principles of the Pack-Line defense).
The defense, rebounding and occasional solid offense of forward Darion Atkins will definitely be missed. He slid into Akil Mitchell's role and did, at times, an exceptional job. He will be hard to replace. I don't think UVa will have a defensive post presence like him in the starting lineup next season. Tobey and Gill are good players, but do not have the defensive prowess of Atkins. Perrantes should be better and will hopefully take yet another step up in offense. If this season was any indication, we will need him to try to hit some more outside shots to loosen up defenses. He never got going from beyond the arc like he did last year, but did score more overall. Brogdon will be Brogdon. We should expect nothing but solid consistency from him and a scoring average somewhere between 13 and 16 points probably. If Nolte starts, hopefully he can rebound from two poor shooting years and finish his career with a flourish. If Shayok starts, the sky could be the limit. Either way, he will play a lot more next year.
Coming off the bench, Isaiah Wilkins could be the closest thing to Atkins UVa has. He did a very good job on the boards and defensively in spot duty this season. He will be used I'm sure when UVa needs a defensive boost. If he takes a big leap up in ability. he could even be used as a starter in a small lineup. He has more of a small forward's offensive game than Atkins. He can hit shots from farther out and even hit two 3s this season. Devon Hall was underutilized this season I think and I hope he comes to life more in 2015-16. He is long and can run the point or play off the ball. Hopefully he will be better beyond the arc (.333) and at the charity stripe (.455). Two players redshirted this season. Forward Jack Salt will probably not play a lot but can be a defensive presence inside. He reportedly has a raw offensive game but is a hard worker. Darius Thompson, the transfer from Tennessee, will have a bigger role probably. He is long and can really defend and is also fast in the open court. He isn't a great shooter, but can finish well at the rim. As for true freshmen, so far UVa is only bringing in one -- forward Jarred Reuter, a 6-foot-8, 240-pounder from Massachusetts with some promise.
UVa will most likely be looking at bringing in a transfer. With Anderson leaving and B.J. Stith transferring to ODU, Bennett has two scholarships to work with he didn't know he would have. The most interesting development so far on this front is Kenny Williams, a 6-foot-3 guard out of L.C. Bird High School in Chesterfield County, just south of Richmond. He isn't exactly a transfer since he will be a true freshman but he was headed to VCU but is now looking elsewhere after Shaka Smart's departure to Texas. UVa has not recruited him before because of its original scholarship situation for the 2015 class but is now going hard after him. He chose VCU over UNC so you have to figure UNC is now the leader for him but he is also considering, in addition to Virginia, Michigan and Georgetown. The report on him is he is a great shooter from outside. That would obviously be a skill set UVa could use right away.
Lastly, the most recent update regarding the offseason for Virginia is the addition of Brad Soderberg as an assistant coach. That news broke late Thursday night. If you had not heard, unfortunately UVa lost Bennett's top assistant, Ritchie McKay, to Liberty, where he will be the head coach for a second time. He was the head coach at the Lynchburg school for two years before coming to UVa. Brad Soucie, who was another assistant at UVa, left with him. Soucie has been with McKay during the majority of his career so that move was not surprising. Soderberg, who is likely
replacing McKay as top assistant, has close ties to the Bennett family. He played for Dick Bennett at Wisconsin-Stevens Point and was eventually an assistant under Bennett at Wisconsin. He was the interim head coach for a time with the Badgers after Bennett retired and before Bo Ryan took over.
Whew, ok, I think that is enough for now. I'll write more if other moves are made regarding transfers or coaches.
Justin Anderson declared for the NBA draft. As I have detailed in this space in my prior post, the junior guard is skipping his senior season to try his hand in the NBA. "Simba," as he was affectionately known as by a segment of the fanbase, is expected to be a late first- or early second-round pick.
I understand why he declared. He began this season extremely hot from 3-point land. He was above 50 percent in non-conference play and only came down to 45.2 percent after hitting on 38.3 percent of his bonus shots in ACC games, including zero against FSU and UNC in the ACC tournament. It is possible that Anderson wouldn't have been able to duplicate that kind of shooting next year. He obviously began to fall off from his hot start this season. I highly doubt he would have reverted back to his 30 percent shooting days if he had played his senior season, but I would not have been surprised had he gone back below 40 percent. If he had stayed around the high 30 percent range or higher next year, he probably could have helped his draft stock. It would have been hurt, however, had he fallen significantly below 40 percent. He also could get better at ball handling. He seemed to get better at that throughout his career so I think it stands to reason it would not have gotten worse next season. It is less up to chance. You either are a good ball handler with practice or not very good. And while he looks great going to the rim for a dunk, I think overall his slashing to the basket and finishing in traffic overall could be a bit better and I think he would have gotten better at that next season.
Had he stayed, I think chances are decent Anderson could have been a higher draft pick than he will be this year. The draft class for next year is considered weaker than this class. But, it might not have been a significant increase in stock, maybe not enough to risk another possible injury. That was most likely another big factor in Anderson's decision. Though small, the finger injury was nagging this year and did affect Anderson's play. Had he come back, there is no guarantee he would not have suffered a worse injury. I think the finger injury kind of flashed Anderson's mortality before his eyes. He knew he might have gotten away with a minor injury this time. So he decided to jump while he still has good overall health.
Selfishly, as UVa fans, we wanted Anderson back. Next year's team might have been a truly special one with him. The ceiling would have been a Final Four appearance and perhaps the school's first national title. Publications had UVa as either No. 1 or No. 2 in too-early top 25 rankings. But I understand his decision and will root for him where ever he goes. I do hope he goes in the first round, though, so he feels validated and we feel like he wasn't stolen from us prematurely.
The Cavaliers lose a unique talent with Anderson gone. Several good pieces return to the 2015-16 team, though, and I expect the Wahoos to make another run to the NCAA tournament with a possible ceiling being the Sweet 16. Over the course of an 18-game ACC schedule, it could be difficult for other ACC teams to be as consistent as UVa and the Cavs certainly have another great chance at winning the regular-season title. Ultimate success, though, will be judged on how UVa does in the two postseason tournaments and that is more of a crapshoot and seems to come down more to how hot you are, how healthy you are, and if your offense is clicking.
Even with Anderson gone, two or three starters return to the team depending on how you look at it. London Perrantes, Malcolm Brogdon, Anthony Gill for sure will be in the first five, and Mike Tobey has started plenty of games and will likely be a starter next year. Lastly, Evan Nolte started while Anderson was injured this season and might be a starter next season. But I can also see Marial Shayok starting instead should Tony Bennett go with offense over defense (though Shayok is probably a better on-ball defender, Nolte is probably more entrenched in the principles of the Pack-Line defense).
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| Darius Thompson |
The defense, rebounding and occasional solid offense of forward Darion Atkins will definitely be missed. He slid into Akil Mitchell's role and did, at times, an exceptional job. He will be hard to replace. I don't think UVa will have a defensive post presence like him in the starting lineup next season. Tobey and Gill are good players, but do not have the defensive prowess of Atkins. Perrantes should be better and will hopefully take yet another step up in offense. If this season was any indication, we will need him to try to hit some more outside shots to loosen up defenses. He never got going from beyond the arc like he did last year, but did score more overall. Brogdon will be Brogdon. We should expect nothing but solid consistency from him and a scoring average somewhere between 13 and 16 points probably. If Nolte starts, hopefully he can rebound from two poor shooting years and finish his career with a flourish. If Shayok starts, the sky could be the limit. Either way, he will play a lot more next year.
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| Jarred Reuter |
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| Kenny Williams |
Lastly, the most recent update regarding the offseason for Virginia is the addition of Brad Soderberg as an assistant coach. That news broke late Thursday night. If you had not heard, unfortunately UVa lost Bennett's top assistant, Ritchie McKay, to Liberty, where he will be the head coach for a second time. He was the head coach at the Lynchburg school for two years before coming to UVa. Brad Soucie, who was another assistant at UVa, left with him. Soucie has been with McKay during the majority of his career so that move was not surprising. Soderberg, who is likely
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| Brad Soderberg |
Whew, ok, I think that is enough for now. I'll write more if other moves are made regarding transfers or coaches.
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