No. 1 Wisconsin (36-3) vs. No. 1 Duke (34-4), 9:18 p.m. CBS
At this point, I like Wisconsin. It lost to Duke earlier, yes, but it is a better team now and has highly motivated seniors with more experience than Duke. Wisconsin has also had a tougher run in the tournament and is more tested at this point, something I thought the Badgers lacked earlier in the season. In their last 12 games, the Badgers have had to face Maryland, Michigan State (twice), Ohio State, Purdue, Oregon, North Carolina, Arizona, and Kentucky in nine of those, quite the gauntlet. Wisconsin is one of only four teams to make it to the championship by beating the highest possible seed in each round of the tournament since it expanded to 64 teams in 1985. None of those other three teams, however, had to face a No. 1 seed in the championship. The Blue Devils, meanwhile, got an 11-loss MSU team in the Final Four (yes, Wisconsin played MSU like I said, however, no doubt Wisconsin had the tougher national semifinal), and has also faced Gonzaga, a game opponent but not on the level of this year's truly elite, and Utah and San Diego State, solid teams that weren't good matchups going against Duke.
We get a rematch between two great teams for the national championship this year. Duke beat Wisconsin earlier this season on the road in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, 80-70. Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky (17 points, nine boards) outplayed Duke's Jahlil Okafor (13 points, six rebounds) but the only other Wisconsin player with a good game was Traveon Jackson with 25. Josh Gasser, Nigel Hayes, and Sam Dekker shot a combined 5 for 14. Duke was led by Tyus Jones with 22. Rasheed Sulaimon had 14 off the bench but he isn't on the team anymore. Quinn Cook had 13. Notably, Duke shot 65 percent.
Both teams have come a long ways since then, of course. Despite only seven combined losses (Kentucky and UConn had 18 in last year's final), each team had a rough patch this year. Wisconsin's
came at Rutgers, losing 67-62 on Jan. 11. It's worth nothing, though, that star center Frank Kaminsky did not play in that game and this is also when the Badgers lost guard Traveon Jackson to a leg injury. The Badgers have not lost since a 59-53 setback at Maryland on Feb. 24. Wisconsin is coming off a history-making win in the Final Four when it beat Kentucky, sending the Wildcats to their first loss of the season and stopping their trek to 40-0. Wisconsin lost in the Final Four last season to Kentucky.
Duke's low point came in early January, too. The Blue Devils scraped past Wake Forest on the road, 73-65, then lost 87-75 at N.C. State and 90-74 at home to Miami. At home. Thinking a Duke team, that loses at home by double digits to almost anyone, would make the title game is an almost preposterous thought. But the Blue Devils did it. They last lost in the ACC tournament semifinals to Notre Dame, and afterward picked up the Big Dance's final No. 1 seed, much to the chagrin of Virginia fans, some of whom thought the Cavs deserved it more.
At this point, I like Wisconsin. It lost to Duke earlier, yes, but it is a better team now and has highly motivated seniors with more experience than Duke. Wisconsin has also had a tougher run in the tournament and is more tested at this point, something I thought the Badgers lacked earlier in the season. In their last 12 games, the Badgers have had to face Maryland, Michigan State (twice), Ohio State, Purdue, Oregon, North Carolina, Arizona, and Kentucky in nine of those, quite the gauntlet. Wisconsin is one of only four teams to make it to the championship by beating the highest possible seed in each round of the tournament since it expanded to 64 teams in 1985. None of those other three teams, however, had to face a No. 1 seed in the championship. The Blue Devils, meanwhile, got an 11-loss MSU team in the Final Four (yes, Wisconsin played MSU like I said, however, no doubt Wisconsin had the tougher national semifinal), and has also faced Gonzaga, a game opponent but not on the level of this year's truly elite, and Utah and San Diego State, solid teams that weren't good matchups going against Duke.
Wisconsin has had a lot of time to jell with its older players and are playing like the better team now. Duke is very good and this is the best Coach K has done with a team of freshmen, but the Badgers are going to get it done. Look for Kaminsky to have an awesome game as he can really make things tough for Duke's defense since he is so versatile. And I highly doubt the Blue Devils shoot 65 percent again. In that first meeting, Wisconsin only shot 40 percent. To shoot 25 percent worse than Duke but only lose by 10 is actually pretty impressive. Wisconsin wins a back-and-forth affair by closing it out in the final couple minutes.
Wisconsin 73, Duke 69
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