Last year: 5-7 (3-5) Best win: vs. No. 21 Louisville, 23-21 Worst loss: vs. North Carolina, 28-27
Coach: Mike London (sixth year, 23-38)
Starters returning: 11 (5 offense, 5 defense, 1 specialist), 12 if you count QB Matt Johns
Offensive players to watch
QB Matt Johns. He won the job over Greyson Lambert in the spring and then Lambert transferred to Georgia, where he will start Saturday (that will be funny if ends up doing well there). The junior started three games when Lambert was hurt and completed 54.9 percent of his passes for 1,109 yards, eight touchdowns, and five interceptions. Overall, he was not as accurate as Lambert (59 percent), but his TD-INT ratio was better. Lambert's was 10-11. Lambert had a better arm, but Johns was gutsier and seemed to throw down the field more. He also was a better scrambler. Johns entered the UCLA game after Lambert struggled early and immediately sparked the team to two touchdowns, pulling the Cavs to within 21-17 of the Bruins after a 21-3 start. After that, Johns played sporadically until Lambert was hurt in the BYU game. Johns finished that game strongly and then started the Kent State, Pitt, and Duke games while Lambert recovered. The team went 2-1 in those games. Lambert came back for the UNC game and then Johns played garbage time against Georgia Tech and then against Virginia Tech when Lambert got hurt.
RB Taquan Mizzell. One of the enduring images of the 2014 season came against Virginia Tech when Mizzell caught a pass from Lambert and began darting downfield toward the end zone. Surely, the man everyone calls "Smoke" was going to score since he was in the open field. Alas, he was caught from behind at the 6-yard line and Virginia ended up settling for a field goal, a crucial misstep for a team trying to beat its arch-rival for the first time since 2003. Overall speed aside, Mizzell has supposedly had a very good offseason and Wahoo fans and coaches are hoping he breaks out for his junior season as the main man following the departure of longtime starter Kevin Parks. Last year, Mizzell finished with 280 yards on 64 carries (4.4 ypc, better than Parks' 3.9) and two touchdowns. He also caught 39 passes for 271 yards but no touchdowns, but at least one should've-been-TD against the Hokies. The nickname "Smoke" actually never came from his blazing speed. Rather, it was his ability to make high school defenders miss that earned him the moniker. Ironically, some of that shiftiness is one of the things new running backs coach Chris Beatty tried to stamp out in the offseason. Mizzell has been working hard on being a one-cut runner and bursting through the hole, rather than dancing around in the backfield. It is unknown if Mizzell will be the starter come Saturday at UCLA, but either way, expect Maryland transfer senior Albert Reid, sophomore Daniel Hamm, and redshirt freshman Jordan Ellis to get some looks/carries as well, if not against the Bruins, then at least this season.
Defensive players to watch
S Quin Blanding. Blanding was one of the highlights of a good defense last season. Only a true freshman, he lived up to the hype of being a five-star recruit. The 6-foot-2 210-pounder finished first on the team with 123 tackles, 2.5 for loss, a sack, six pass breakups, and three picks, which tied for the team lead with Maurice Canady. Already a freshman All-American, he will set his sights on being even better this season and also being a vocal leader for the defense.
DE Mike Moore. With Eli Harold's nine sacks, Henry Coley's eight sacks, and Max Valles' seven sacks gone, Moore, who collected three sacks last year, is going to be expected to fill some of that void in pass rushing. The senior also recorded 36 tackles, eight for loss, and recovered three fumbles in 2014. Stalwart David Dean on the interior needs to step up, too. He is reliable, but only had one sack last season after collecting four in 2013. Andrew Brown is a name to watch out for as well. Remember him? The five-star recruit didn't exactly pan out in his freshman season like Blanding did. Battling injuries, Brown finished with just four tackles in six games. He has reportedly gotten better, gotten healthy, and trimmed some weight in the offseason. Hopefully, he makes a big jump for this defense.
Special teams player to watch: K Ian Frye. The senior made 22 of of his 27 attempts last season, including every attempt under 40 yards. From 40-49 yards, he was 5 of 7. He missed all three of his attempts past 50 yards, so I think we know where his range lies. He comes into the season as a Lou Groza Award candidate.
Schedule: at UCLA, Notre Dame, William & Mary, Boise State, at Pittsburgh, Syracuse, at North Carolina, Georgia Tech, at Miami, at Louisville, Duke, Virginia Tech.
Outlook
Last year was certainly a step in the right direction from 2013's 2-10 campaign, and five victories was apparently just enough for London to keep his job. Five wins was my nightmare scenario going into last season because I knew it would probably mean London would be back, but it would also feel like the team wasn't a whole lot better. While there were some enjoyable moments, sure enough, London is returning but there was no bowl game last year, nothing tangible to notice that the team was headed in the right direction besides a couple more wins. And last year, while players seemed to give more effort than in 2013, still featured some head-scratching decisions and play calls from the coaching staff, albeit less than in '13.
While it appears London is perhaps improving as a head coach, this is his sixth year coming up. The training wheels need to be off. The time for improving records and learning the ropes was in the first, second, and maybe third years. Now fans need to see real progress and wins pile up. The problem is, London could be doing a better job, but the schedule is something that can hold him back. It is arguably more difficult than last year. There is no Florida State, and the 'Noles have been replaced by Syracuse, but Kent State was replaced by Notre Dame/Boise State, as was BYU. Both of those teams are steps up from Kent State, and you could argue they are better than BYU, too, and not be way off base. So if London doesn't get himself fired this year, the schedule might.
What do I think will keep London around for 2016? Certainly, if he makes a bowl, he is 100 percent back. If Virginia wins five games again against this tough schedule, he might very well be back and if one of those five wins comes against Virginia Tech, he is almost certainly back. I would not be shocked if London is back at 4-8, but I think it will have to be under the right circumstances, whether that be because the team lost some close games against tough teams, beat a couple tough teams, or ended the season on a high note by closing 2-1 or 3-2, whatever. Closing seasons strong has not been a trademark of the Cavaliers for years, so a couple November wins could go a long way for London's job security. I think at 3-9 or worse, London is toast. The administration really, really wants him to succeed, but bringing him back after a 3-9 campaign would just be too much of a hurdle to overcome. We would be talking about an all-out fan revolt at that point or, worse, all-out fan apathy (and apathy is already pretty high). So, for me, 4-8 is the drop-dead record for coming back. I can envision that happening, but I would say the chances are less than 50 percent. At 5-7, they are greater than 50 percent, with those chances increasing based on who was beaten and how the season ended. And 6-6 or greater, he will be back for sure.
On offense, I think Johns will do an admirable job being the man. The team seems to like him, and he seems to have a nice laid-back attitude that fits what the team needs -- someone to keep the players loose. I think being the clear No. 1 will help him be better than last season. Let's hope he doesn't get hurt. There is zero playing experience behind him in backups Connor Brewer (a transfer from Arizona) and Corwin Cutler (he of the I'm-transferring-actually-not-really episode this past summer). And let's hope London doesn't panic at the first sign of bad play from Johns and yank him. I don't know if I can handle another QB carousel. The offensive line is bringing back lots of players and features pretty good depth. I think the running backs could have good seasons. While I don't think Mizzell will ever live up to the expectations placed on him as a five-star recruit, I expect him to have a nice year. Supposedly, the team is trying to beef up the power run game and to that end, Vincent Croce, a senior and captain, could have a good year at fullback. He was named the team's most improved player in the spring. At WR, leading receiver Canaan Severin (42 receptions, 578 yards and five TDs) is back as is Andre Levrone, Kyle Dockins, and Keeon Johnson. Doni Dowling tore his ACL in February and might redshirt, but has been working to recover and as far as I can tell, there is still a chance he could see the field this season. UNC transfer T.J. Thorpe was expected to help the corps as a speedster and be an option as a return man on special teams, but a broken clavicle will sideline him for at least the first half of the season. Rob Burns is the lone player returning with experience at UVa at tight end, but look for senior Stanford transfer Charlie Hopkins to have an impact.
The defense took a hit with the loss of some solid players, but defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta's aggressive scheme and some key returners should make sure there isn't a ton of drop off. The secondary should be strong again with the return of Canady, Blanding, Tim Harris, and a fifth year for Demetrious Nicholson, who played only against Kent State in 2014 and then decided to sit out the rest of the year and seek a medical redshirt for turf toe injuries that first surfaced way back in 2013. Kelvin Rainey has big shoes to fill at the other safety spot opposite Blanding as he takes over for All-ACC performer Anthony Harris.
The linebackers are inexperienced but hold promise. The starters are expected to be Micah Kiser, Zach Bradshaw, and Mark Hall. Only Bradshaw has started a game (one). True freshman C.J. Stalker (best name for any linebacker) has been impressive and expect him to get time along with converted safety Malcolm Cook.
I touched on the defensive line earlier but a couple other names to look out for are Donte Wilkins (19 tackles, two for loss last season in five games started) and Trent Corney.
Like Al Golden at Miami, if London can't be good outside the ACC, it could be a long year. If the Cavs don't beat a non-ACC not named William & Mary, that means the team will be 1-3 headed into ACC play on the road against a dangerous Pittsburgh team. Things could spiral at that point. London could really help himself by stealing one from UCLA, Notre Dame, or Boise State. Any of those would be legitimately good wins that would not only count in the win column, but could give the team and fan base real momentum early in the season. Based on the other opponents being so strong, the Syracuse home game is essentially a must-win for Virginia to have a good year. With the Miami game being sort of late in the year, that could end up being an elimination contest for Golden or London. The loser might get fired at the end of the season. I think we might have a pretty good idea after that game of London's fate, with three tough games to go after that, especially Louisville and Virginia Tech. The final stretch for London to save his job isn't an easy one.
Win-loss prediction: 4-8 (London fired) or 5-7 (London returns)
Coach: Mike London (sixth year, 23-38)
Starters returning: 11 (5 offense, 5 defense, 1 specialist), 12 if you count QB Matt Johns
Offensive players to watch
 |
| QB Matt Johns |
QB Matt Johns. He won the job over Greyson Lambert in the spring and then Lambert transferred to Georgia, where he will start Saturday (that will be funny if ends up doing well there). The junior started three games when Lambert was hurt and completed 54.9 percent of his passes for 1,109 yards, eight touchdowns, and five interceptions. Overall, he was not as accurate as Lambert (59 percent), but his TD-INT ratio was better. Lambert's was 10-11. Lambert had a better arm, but Johns was gutsier and seemed to throw down the field more. He also was a better scrambler. Johns entered the UCLA game after Lambert struggled early and immediately sparked the team to two touchdowns, pulling the Cavs to within 21-17 of the Bruins after a 21-3 start. After that, Johns played sporadically until Lambert was hurt in the BYU game. Johns finished that game strongly and then started the Kent State, Pitt, and Duke games while Lambert recovered. The team went 2-1 in those games. Lambert came back for the UNC game and then Johns played garbage time against Georgia Tech and then against Virginia Tech when Lambert got hurt.
 |
| RB Taquan Mizzell |
Defensive players to watch
 |
| S Quin Blanding |
S Quin Blanding. Blanding was one of the highlights of a good defense last season. Only a true freshman, he lived up to the hype of being a five-star recruit. The 6-foot-2 210-pounder finished first on the team with 123 tackles, 2.5 for loss, a sack, six pass breakups, and three picks, which tied for the team lead with Maurice Canady. Already a freshman All-American, he will set his sights on being even better this season and also being a vocal leader for the defense.
DE Mike Moore. With Eli Harold's nine sacks, Henry Coley's eight sacks, and Max Valles' seven sacks gone, Moore, who collected three sacks last year, is going to be expected to fill some of that void in pass rushing. The senior also recorded 36 tackles, eight for loss, and recovered three fumbles in 2014. Stalwart David Dean on the interior needs to step up, too. He is reliable, but only had one sack last season after collecting four in 2013. Andrew Brown is a name to watch out for as well. Remember him? The five-star recruit didn't exactly pan out in his freshman season like Blanding did. Battling injuries, Brown finished with just four tackles in six games. He has reportedly gotten better, gotten healthy, and trimmed some weight in the offseason. Hopefully, he makes a big jump for this defense.
 |
| DT David Dean |
Special teams player to watch: K Ian Frye. The senior made 22 of of his 27 attempts last season, including every attempt under 40 yards. From 40-49 yards, he was 5 of 7. He missed all three of his attempts past 50 yards, so I think we know where his range lies. He comes into the season as a Lou Groza Award candidate.
Schedule: at UCLA, Notre Dame, William & Mary, Boise State, at Pittsburgh, Syracuse, at North Carolina, Georgia Tech, at Miami, at Louisville, Duke, Virginia Tech.
Outlook
Last year was certainly a step in the right direction from 2013's 2-10 campaign, and five victories was apparently just enough for London to keep his job. Five wins was my nightmare scenario going into last season because I knew it would probably mean London would be back, but it would also feel like the team wasn't a whole lot better. While there were some enjoyable moments, sure enough, London is returning but there was no bowl game last year, nothing tangible to notice that the team was headed in the right direction besides a couple more wins. And last year, while players seemed to give more effort than in 2013, still featured some head-scratching decisions and play calls from the coaching staff, albeit less than in '13.
While it appears London is perhaps improving as a head coach, this is his sixth year coming up. The training wheels need to be off. The time for improving records and learning the ropes was in the first, second, and maybe third years. Now fans need to see real progress and wins pile up. The problem is, London could be doing a better job, but the schedule is something that can hold him back. It is arguably more difficult than last year. There is no Florida State, and the 'Noles have been replaced by Syracuse, but Kent State was replaced by Notre Dame/Boise State, as was BYU. Both of those teams are steps up from Kent State, and you could argue they are better than BYU, too, and not be way off base. So if London doesn't get himself fired this year, the schedule might.What do I think will keep London around for 2016? Certainly, if he makes a bowl, he is 100 percent back. If Virginia wins five games again against this tough schedule, he might very well be back and if one of those five wins comes against Virginia Tech, he is almost certainly back. I would not be shocked if London is back at 4-8, but I think it will have to be under the right circumstances, whether that be because the team lost some close games against tough teams, beat a couple tough teams, or ended the season on a high note by closing 2-1 or 3-2, whatever. Closing seasons strong has not been a trademark of the Cavaliers for years, so a couple November wins could go a long way for London's job security. I think at 3-9 or worse, London is toast. The administration really, really wants him to succeed, but bringing him back after a 3-9 campaign would just be too much of a hurdle to overcome. We would be talking about an all-out fan revolt at that point or, worse, all-out fan apathy (and apathy is already pretty high). So, for me, 4-8 is the drop-dead record for coming back. I can envision that happening, but I would say the chances are less than 50 percent. At 5-7, they are greater than 50 percent, with those chances increasing based on who was beaten and how the season ended. And 6-6 or greater, he will be back for sure.
 |
| WR Canaan Severin |
The defense took a hit with the loss of some solid players, but defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta's aggressive scheme and some key returners should make sure there isn't a ton of drop off. The secondary should be strong again with the return of Canady, Blanding, Tim Harris, and a fifth year for Demetrious Nicholson, who played only against Kent State in 2014 and then decided to sit out the rest of the year and seek a medical redshirt for turf toe injuries that first surfaced way back in 2013. Kelvin Rainey has big shoes to fill at the other safety spot opposite Blanding as he takes over for All-ACC performer Anthony Harris.
The linebackers are inexperienced but hold promise. The starters are expected to be Micah Kiser, Zach Bradshaw, and Mark Hall. Only Bradshaw has started a game (one). True freshman C.J. Stalker (best name for any linebacker) has been impressive and expect him to get time along with converted safety Malcolm Cook.
I touched on the defensive line earlier but a couple other names to look out for are Donte Wilkins (19 tackles, two for loss last season in five games started) and Trent Corney.
 |
| Mike London |
Win-loss prediction: 4-8 (London fired) or 5-7 (London returns)
Comments
Post a Comment