Boise State (2-1) at Virginia (1-2), 8 p.m. ESPN
If Virginia doesn't take advantage of this opportunity, the opportunities for coach Mike London to find enough wins this year to survive after the season begin to really, really dwindle.
Virginia has put together some nice schedules the past few years with some contests against nationally known programs. However, it could all be for naught and be London's undoing. Don't get me wrong. Hard schedules are not this regime's only problem, but it hasn't helped things. Tonight, the Cavaliers have another tough foe, but another chance to knock off a very solid team. Boise State is not ranked, though it was No. 23 at the beginning of the season. And it would still be ranked were it not for a miraculous comeback by BYU in the fourth quarter that sent the Cougars past the Broncos in the closing minutes two weeks ago. These Broncos are also not your Chris Petersen Broncos of a few years ago that won the Fiesta Bowl over Oklahoma in January 2007 or the ones that beat a top-10 Virginia Tech team at FedEx Field in 2010.
However, the Broncos are good and can still put up lots of points. They are now led by Bryan Harsin, who is in his second season. By the way, BSU won another Fiesta Bowl, this one last year over Arizona as the Broncos went 12-2. Boise State is averaging 197.7 rushing yards and that number is what is most a problem for UVa, which hasn't been able to stop the run this year at all, allowing 183.3 yards per game, 85th in the country. Jeremy McNichols is the guy to look out for in the
run game. He's rushed for 204 yards and seven TDs thus far. Virginia might be catching a break with BSU missing its starting QB, Ryan Finley, who hurt his ankle last week. However, several BSU fans seem to think the Broncos will be better off with either sophomore Thomas Stuart or freshman Brett Rypien (the nephew of former Washington Redskin Mark Rypien) running things under center. They might be right. Finley had already thrown four picks this season. In a small sample size against an overmatched Idaho State team last week, Stuart was 9 of 13 for 69 yards and a touchdown and Rypien was 8 of 9 for 126 yards. Both are expected to play at Scott Stadium. Shane Williams-Rhodes has been BSU's most dangerous weapon in the passing attack, catching 18 passes for 173 yards (but no TDs).
Virginia is likely going to have to do everything through the air on offense. The Broncos have allowed just 45.7 rushing yards per game (second in the nation) and running the ball has not been a UVa strength so far. In contrast, BSU is allowing 240.3 yards passing per game, 84th in the country. One of Virginia's only hopes is going to be opening the playbook, more like what the offense looked like against Notre Dame. Let Matt Johns be Matt Johns; let him sling it a little bit. It doesn't seem like a conservative approach will win this game. Virginia just needs to go for it on offense. T.J. Thorpe, the wideout transfer from UNC who broke his clavicle, was active last week after a very fast recovery but didn't get any touches. He can bring a speed element to the game that the WR corps has been missing. Getting him going could be a game-breaker for the 'Hoos.
In the end, I just can't see UVa putting up enough points to win this game and get the upset. The defense might do fine in holding down one or both backup QBs, but the rush defense hasn't proven it can stop a good running team yet. Heck, it had a hard time slowing William & Mary last week. If the game gets much into the 30s, UVa won't be able to keep up. I am pretty sure that with Steve Fairchild as offensive coordinator, UVa has only scored more than 30 points twice against FBS competition -- against BYU last year in a loss (33) and last year against an awful Kent State team (45). Against good FBS teams, scoring more than 30 in this offense appears to be rare.
Boise State 38, Virginia 28
If Virginia doesn't take advantage of this opportunity, the opportunities for coach Mike London to find enough wins this year to survive after the season begin to really, really dwindle.
Virginia has put together some nice schedules the past few years with some contests against nationally known programs. However, it could all be for naught and be London's undoing. Don't get me wrong. Hard schedules are not this regime's only problem, but it hasn't helped things. Tonight, the Cavaliers have another tough foe, but another chance to knock off a very solid team. Boise State is not ranked, though it was No. 23 at the beginning of the season. And it would still be ranked were it not for a miraculous comeback by BYU in the fourth quarter that sent the Cougars past the Broncos in the closing minutes two weeks ago. These Broncos are also not your Chris Petersen Broncos of a few years ago that won the Fiesta Bowl over Oklahoma in January 2007 or the ones that beat a top-10 Virginia Tech team at FedEx Field in 2010.
However, the Broncos are good and can still put up lots of points. They are now led by Bryan Harsin, who is in his second season. By the way, BSU won another Fiesta Bowl, this one last year over Arizona as the Broncos went 12-2. Boise State is averaging 197.7 rushing yards and that number is what is most a problem for UVa, which hasn't been able to stop the run this year at all, allowing 183.3 yards per game, 85th in the country. Jeremy McNichols is the guy to look out for in the
Virginia is likely going to have to do everything through the air on offense. The Broncos have allowed just 45.7 rushing yards per game (second in the nation) and running the ball has not been a UVa strength so far. In contrast, BSU is allowing 240.3 yards passing per game, 84th in the country. One of Virginia's only hopes is going to be opening the playbook, more like what the offense looked like against Notre Dame. Let Matt Johns be Matt Johns; let him sling it a little bit. It doesn't seem like a conservative approach will win this game. Virginia just needs to go for it on offense. T.J. Thorpe, the wideout transfer from UNC who broke his clavicle, was active last week after a very fast recovery but didn't get any touches. He can bring a speed element to the game that the WR corps has been missing. Getting him going could be a game-breaker for the 'Hoos.
In the end, I just can't see UVa putting up enough points to win this game and get the upset. The defense might do fine in holding down one or both backup QBs, but the rush defense hasn't proven it can stop a good running team yet. Heck, it had a hard time slowing William & Mary last week. If the game gets much into the 30s, UVa won't be able to keep up. I am pretty sure that with Steve Fairchild as offensive coordinator, UVa has only scored more than 30 points twice against FBS competition -- against BYU last year in a loss (33) and last year against an awful Kent State team (45). Against good FBS teams, scoring more than 30 in this offense appears to be rare.
Boise State 38, Virginia 28
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