The Virginia football program is at a crossroads.
The opportunities have been there for good wins against UCLA, Notre Dame, and Boise State. UVa is 0-3 in those games. The Cavaliers played very well against the Fighting Irish but lost in the last 12 seconds. They then barely scraped by William & Mary and got blown out of Scott Stadium by Boise State. Virginia sits 1-3 with very few winnable games left if it continues to play poorly.
Last season, Virginia was 4-2 after six games and went 1-5 down the stretch to finish 5-7. A similar meltdown would mean a two- or three-win season for the 'Hoos. I said at the beginning of the year that coach Mike London would be back with a six-victory season, and maybe even five or four if things fell right. I think, at this point of a 1-3 season, he would be back with five wins. That would
mean a 4-4 record down the stretch, which would also happen to be a 4-4 ACC record. That would be his second-best ACC record after the 5-3 mark in the 2011 bowl season.
Virginia is always good for a surprise win or two. In 2012, after starting 2-0, which included a win over Penn State, Virginia lost six straight games and then, unexpectedly, the Cavs crushed N.C. State on the road, 33-6, and then followed that up with a 41-40 shootout home win over Miami. In 2013, UVa won just two games, but the first over BYU ended up being a surprise given how the year finished. Last year, Virginia started strong and had that win over a ranked Louisville squad but then later, after four straight losses, UVa destroyed Miami, 30-6, at home.
With that said, I can't see a 4-4 finish happening with the way the team has looked. It seems as if the loss to Notre Dame really deflated the team. We will see what it looks like coming off a bye week with a road tilt vs. Pittsburgh up next, but I don't have much optimism that this coaching staff has made the adjustments necessary for a much improved team. The unexpected win or two could occur, but it won't be enough to make it a successful season. London's contract goes through the end of next year. In college football, it is important for a coach to always have at least a year or more left on his contract from the season he is currently in for recruiting purposes. That pretty much means that London needs to be either fired or have his contract extended after the season, at least through 2017. With the record London has put together, if he is coaching next year without an extension, that will further hurt recruiting and 2016 would amount to a wasted season. In a recent Daily Progress article, Andrew Ramspacher profiles the next class coming in for London. It is impressive in its numbers, but perhaps not its star quality. There are no four-star prospects in it, a first for a UVa class under London. Recruiting is being hurt already by lackluster results.
Why is all this important? Why is this a crossroads? If this season concludes the way I think it will, and London is retained, that sends a terrible message about the university's football program. With successful athletics almost across the board, except for in what should be the 1a or 1b program -- men's hoops is now clearly 1a for the Wahoos -- it will really look like UVa does not care about football. Not that it can't succeed on the gridiron, but that it is apathetic. A football program, whether schools like it or not, carries heavy influence for an institution and is in many ways, the face of the program around the country. Apathy, to me, could become a PR problem for the school.
One seemingly positive outcome of London's tenure has been the weakening of Virginia Tech. Surely it hasn't all been because of him, but the Hokies have fallen on hard times recently and some of that could be attributed to London being somewhat successful with his in-state recruiting, which Tech
thrived at for a decade or more before his arrival. At 2-3, Virginia Tech fans are once again getting antsy. The Hokies had eight consecutive seasons of 10 or more wins but in 2012, went 7-6, in 2013, went 8-5, and then 7-6 again last year. The rumor is that coach Frank Beamer wants to be leading the team when it takes on Tennessee in the 2016 season in the landmark Battle at Bristol game, which is going to take place in the middle of Bristol Motor Speedway. I have no idea if the rumor can be substantiated. But there is a growing segment of the Hokies' fanbase that wants the 68 year old to be shown the door/forced into retirement/given an athletic department position, etc. however you want to characterize it after this season and not let him last through 2016. I think there is a real chance that segment will get its wish, especially if the Hokies miss out on a bowl game for the first time since 1992. New athletic director Whit Babcock already made a splash in men's basketball with the hire of Buzz Williams, and I think he is going to look to do the same thing with football. There is of course a chance that Beamer's son, Shane, the running backs coach, gets the job. But I think Babcock might try to put his stamp on the program and find a rising star in the coaching profession.
What this boils down to is that both rivals might be looking for coaches at the end of the season. If the Hokies beat the 'Hoos again -- for what would be the 12th straight season -- and then move on from Beamer, and UVa does not fire London, Tech will get a head start on the coaching search while UVa continues to flail. If both let their coaches go, then the next hires will be crucial and could shape the programs for years to come. If London is fired but Tech holds on to Beamer for another year, UVa would actually be able to get a leg up on the search and hire a new name and get ahead of Tech, hopefully getting on the right track, while the Hokies wrap up another uninspiring campaign in the final season of Beamer's tenure. It is almost as if one school could force the other's hand. If one school fires its coach, that might make the other one go ahead and do it, too.
If UVa wants to be taken seriously in college football -- and finally make a move to try to get ahead of Tech -- it needs to get a jump on things and make sure London is shown the door at the end of the season. A further delay will just mean a longer time in purgatory for a program that can and should be better.
The opportunities have been there for good wins against UCLA, Notre Dame, and Boise State. UVa is 0-3 in those games. The Cavaliers played very well against the Fighting Irish but lost in the last 12 seconds. They then barely scraped by William & Mary and got blown out of Scott Stadium by Boise State. Virginia sits 1-3 with very few winnable games left if it continues to play poorly.
Last season, Virginia was 4-2 after six games and went 1-5 down the stretch to finish 5-7. A similar meltdown would mean a two- or three-win season for the 'Hoos. I said at the beginning of the year that coach Mike London would be back with a six-victory season, and maybe even five or four if things fell right. I think, at this point of a 1-3 season, he would be back with five wins. That would
 |
| Mike London needs to go 4-4 down the stretch to just match 2014's 5-7 record. Virginia's last eight games are ACC contests. London is 11-29 in conference games. |
Virginia is always good for a surprise win or two. In 2012, after starting 2-0, which included a win over Penn State, Virginia lost six straight games and then, unexpectedly, the Cavs crushed N.C. State on the road, 33-6, and then followed that up with a 41-40 shootout home win over Miami. In 2013, UVa won just two games, but the first over BYU ended up being a surprise given how the year finished. Last year, Virginia started strong and had that win over a ranked Louisville squad but then later, after four straight losses, UVa destroyed Miami, 30-6, at home.
With that said, I can't see a 4-4 finish happening with the way the team has looked. It seems as if the loss to Notre Dame really deflated the team. We will see what it looks like coming off a bye week with a road tilt vs. Pittsburgh up next, but I don't have much optimism that this coaching staff has made the adjustments necessary for a much improved team. The unexpected win or two could occur, but it won't be enough to make it a successful season. London's contract goes through the end of next year. In college football, it is important for a coach to always have at least a year or more left on his contract from the season he is currently in for recruiting purposes. That pretty much means that London needs to be either fired or have his contract extended after the season, at least through 2017. With the record London has put together, if he is coaching next year without an extension, that will further hurt recruiting and 2016 would amount to a wasted season. In a recent Daily Progress article, Andrew Ramspacher profiles the next class coming in for London. It is impressive in its numbers, but perhaps not its star quality. There are no four-star prospects in it, a first for a UVa class under London. Recruiting is being hurt already by lackluster results.
Why is all this important? Why is this a crossroads? If this season concludes the way I think it will, and London is retained, that sends a terrible message about the university's football program. With successful athletics almost across the board, except for in what should be the 1a or 1b program -- men's hoops is now clearly 1a for the Wahoos -- it will really look like UVa does not care about football. Not that it can't succeed on the gridiron, but that it is apathetic. A football program, whether schools like it or not, carries heavy influence for an institution and is in many ways, the face of the program around the country. Apathy, to me, could become a PR problem for the school.
One seemingly positive outcome of London's tenure has been the weakening of Virginia Tech. Surely it hasn't all been because of him, but the Hokies have fallen on hard times recently and some of that could be attributed to London being somewhat successful with his in-state recruiting, which Tech
 |
| After years of consistency, Frank Beamer is feeling the heat at Virginia Tech. The Hokes are 2-3. |
What this boils down to is that both rivals might be looking for coaches at the end of the season. If the Hokies beat the 'Hoos again -- for what would be the 12th straight season -- and then move on from Beamer, and UVa does not fire London, Tech will get a head start on the coaching search while UVa continues to flail. If both let their coaches go, then the next hires will be crucial and could shape the programs for years to come. If London is fired but Tech holds on to Beamer for another year, UVa would actually be able to get a leg up on the search and hire a new name and get ahead of Tech, hopefully getting on the right track, while the Hokies wrap up another uninspiring campaign in the final season of Beamer's tenure. It is almost as if one school could force the other's hand. If one school fires its coach, that might make the other one go ahead and do it, too.
If UVa wants to be taken seriously in college football -- and finally make a move to try to get ahead of Tech -- it needs to get a jump on things and make sure London is shown the door at the end of the season. A further delay will just mean a longer time in purgatory for a program that can and should be better.
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