Two weeks ago: 5-2 NFL picks for season: 30-18
Saturday
Chiefs (11-5) at Texans (9-7), 4:20 p.m. ESPN/ABC
A rematch of a Week 1 game that the Chiefs won, 27-20, both these teams have come a long way, and they both have winning records to boot. It didn't look like that would be true for a several weeks. Kansas City started out 1-5, and Houston began 2-5. The Chiefs lost Jamaal Charles for the year, then turned to Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware to help turn around their season. Along the way, QB Alex Smith was able to get Jeremy Maclin involved in the offense. The defense drives the bus for Kansas City, though, which is second in the league with 22 interceptions and has 29 turnovers overall. Defense is Houston's calling card, too, mainly because the team has had four different starting QBs this year: Ryan Mallett, Brian Hoyer, T.J. Yates, and Brandon Weeden, and Arian Foster hasn't played much because of injury. WR DeAndre Hopkins has been a breakout star for the Texans and Hoyer will be trying to get him the ball today. Obviously, this will probably be a fairly low-scoring game. The Chiefs are on a 10-game winning streak, but only two of those came against winning teams: Pittsburgh with Landry Jones, and Denver, in Peyton Manning's last game played before last week. Houston has done much of its damage against losing teams too, but does have two nice wins: at Cincinnati and home vs. the Jets.
Chiefs 20, Texans 17
Steelers (10-6) at Bengals (12-4), 8:15 p.m. CBS
Pittsburgh slipped into the playoffs by the skin of its teeth when it beat Cleveland and the Jets lost to the Bills. I think lots of AFC teams would have been fine with the Jets getting in, because they don't want the possibility of facing Ben Roethlisberger and the high-powered Steelers passing game, featuring Antonio Brown. But the Steelers did lose RBs Le'Veon Bell and DeAngelo Williams, leaving their run game with a big question mark. Fitzgerald Toussaint and Jordan Todman are expected to split the workload. I like the Bengals, I really do. I have nothing against them and want them to have playoff success. But I don't think it is going to happen. This looked like the year they were for real, but after a 7-0 start, Cincy has gone 4-4. And QB Andy Dalton injured his thumb in the second game against the Steelers, thrusting AJ McCarron into the starting role, in which he has gone 2-1 the past three weeks -- a loss to the Broncos and wins over the 49ers and Ravens. The Bengals won these teams' Week 7 meeting, 16-10, in Pittsburgh and the Steelers won at Cincinnati in Week 13, 33-20. The Bengals are going to have to slow down the Steelers' passing game. They know it is coming, so that should help. I like Pittsburgh, though, in a pretty close game.
Steelers 23, Bengals 17
Sunday
Seahawks (10-6) at Vikings (11-5), 1:05 p.m. NBC
These two teams met in Minnesota in Week 13, a game Seattle dominated, 38-7. Since then, Minnesota has gone 3-1, with just a narrow, three-point loss at Arizona. Also, after losing to Green Bay at home earlier in the year by double digits, the Vikings won at Green Bay last week to win the NFC North. Do they have another revenge performance in them? I don't think so. Beating the Bears, Giants, and not-them-usual-selves Packers is one thing over the past three weeks, but beating the Seahawks is another. Like last year, Seattle has turned it on late and looked good doing it. It is 6-1 since a 39-32 home loss Week 10 to the Cardinals. Only one of those six wins was by single digits. The only hiccup came against the schizophrenic Rams two weeks ago in Seattle. The Rams, though, have played Seattle tough for years now, so I don't think we have to read too much into that. The Vikings' offense, while it has done well this season under second-year QB Teddy Bridgewater, is too one dimensional to succeed against Seattle's defense, which has turned things around in the second half of the season after some blown leads in the fourth quarter.
Seahawks 24, Vikings 20
Packers (10-6) at Redskins (9-7), 4:40 p.m. Fox
Washington looked like its normal disappointing self the first half of this season, then something happened: Kirk Cousins turned into Tom Brady. Seriously. As the man this year, Cousins has led the league in completion percentage, placed fifth in passer rating, and tied for 12th in touchdowns. And I saw a stat Friday where his completion percentage at home, which is around 74 percent, is the highest ever in NFL history. Cousins and some of his passing game weapons, such as tight end Jordan Reed and WR Pierre Garcon, are a couple reasons to like the Redskins. Normally, a reason to not like them would be because they are playing the Packers, and Washington has not beaten a team with a current winning record all year. But this Green Bay team has been mostly ordinary, especially since a 6-0 start. The Packers are just 4-6 since, and Aaron Rodgers is having an off year. The running game has been inconsistent, the offensive line leaky, and the receivers unreliable. It all adds up to a Washington win if it can put some pressure on Rodgers, who was sacked 46 times this season, second most in the league. I'm expecting a close game, but the Redskins will play inspired football down the stretch at home, and I think they'll win their first playoff game since 2005.
Redskins 26, Packers 24
Saturday
Chiefs (11-5) at Texans (9-7), 4:20 p.m. ESPN/ABC
A rematch of a Week 1 game that the Chiefs won, 27-20, both these teams have come a long way, and they both have winning records to boot. It didn't look like that would be true for a several weeks. Kansas City started out 1-5, and Houston began 2-5. The Chiefs lost Jamaal Charles for the year, then turned to Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware to help turn around their season. Along the way, QB Alex Smith was able to get Jeremy Maclin involved in the offense. The defense drives the bus for Kansas City, though, which is second in the league with 22 interceptions and has 29 turnovers overall. Defense is Houston's calling card, too, mainly because the team has had four different starting QBs this year: Ryan Mallett, Brian Hoyer, T.J. Yates, and Brandon Weeden, and Arian Foster hasn't played much because of injury. WR DeAndre Hopkins has been a breakout star for the Texans and Hoyer will be trying to get him the ball today. Obviously, this will probably be a fairly low-scoring game. The Chiefs are on a 10-game winning streak, but only two of those came against winning teams: Pittsburgh with Landry Jones, and Denver, in Peyton Manning's last game played before last week. Houston has done much of its damage against losing teams too, but does have two nice wins: at Cincinnati and home vs. the Jets.
Chiefs 20, Texans 17
Steelers (10-6) at Bengals (12-4), 8:15 p.m. CBS
Pittsburgh slipped into the playoffs by the skin of its teeth when it beat Cleveland and the Jets lost to the Bills. I think lots of AFC teams would have been fine with the Jets getting in, because they don't want the possibility of facing Ben Roethlisberger and the high-powered Steelers passing game, featuring Antonio Brown. But the Steelers did lose RBs Le'Veon Bell and DeAngelo Williams, leaving their run game with a big question mark. Fitzgerald Toussaint and Jordan Todman are expected to split the workload. I like the Bengals, I really do. I have nothing against them and want them to have playoff success. But I don't think it is going to happen. This looked like the year they were for real, but after a 7-0 start, Cincy has gone 4-4. And QB Andy Dalton injured his thumb in the second game against the Steelers, thrusting AJ McCarron into the starting role, in which he has gone 2-1 the past three weeks -- a loss to the Broncos and wins over the 49ers and Ravens. The Bengals won these teams' Week 7 meeting, 16-10, in Pittsburgh and the Steelers won at Cincinnati in Week 13, 33-20. The Bengals are going to have to slow down the Steelers' passing game. They know it is coming, so that should help. I like Pittsburgh, though, in a pretty close game.
Steelers 23, Bengals 17
Sunday
Seahawks (10-6) at Vikings (11-5), 1:05 p.m. NBC
These two teams met in Minnesota in Week 13, a game Seattle dominated, 38-7. Since then, Minnesota has gone 3-1, with just a narrow, three-point loss at Arizona. Also, after losing to Green Bay at home earlier in the year by double digits, the Vikings won at Green Bay last week to win the NFC North. Do they have another revenge performance in them? I don't think so. Beating the Bears, Giants, and not-them-usual-selves Packers is one thing over the past three weeks, but beating the Seahawks is another. Like last year, Seattle has turned it on late and looked good doing it. It is 6-1 since a 39-32 home loss Week 10 to the Cardinals. Only one of those six wins was by single digits. The only hiccup came against the schizophrenic Rams two weeks ago in Seattle. The Rams, though, have played Seattle tough for years now, so I don't think we have to read too much into that. The Vikings' offense, while it has done well this season under second-year QB Teddy Bridgewater, is too one dimensional to succeed against Seattle's defense, which has turned things around in the second half of the season after some blown leads in the fourth quarter.
Seahawks 24, Vikings 20
Packers (10-6) at Redskins (9-7), 4:40 p.m. Fox
Washington looked like its normal disappointing self the first half of this season, then something happened: Kirk Cousins turned into Tom Brady. Seriously. As the man this year, Cousins has led the league in completion percentage, placed fifth in passer rating, and tied for 12th in touchdowns. And I saw a stat Friday where his completion percentage at home, which is around 74 percent, is the highest ever in NFL history. Cousins and some of his passing game weapons, such as tight end Jordan Reed and WR Pierre Garcon, are a couple reasons to like the Redskins. Normally, a reason to not like them would be because they are playing the Packers, and Washington has not beaten a team with a current winning record all year. But this Green Bay team has been mostly ordinary, especially since a 6-0 start. The Packers are just 4-6 since, and Aaron Rodgers is having an off year. The running game has been inconsistent, the offensive line leaky, and the receivers unreliable. It all adds up to a Washington win if it can put some pressure on Rodgers, who was sacked 46 times this season, second most in the league. I'm expecting a close game, but the Redskins will play inspired football down the stretch at home, and I think they'll win their first playoff game since 2005.
Redskins 26, Packers 24
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